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Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol along a road in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.
India and Pakistan inch toward a major clash
Nerves are fraught throughout Pakistan after authorities said Wednesday they have “credible intelligence” that India plans to launch military strikes on its soil by Friday, fueling fears of an outright clash between the two nuclear-armed archrivals. Troops from both sides have been exchanging fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir since a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled section killed 26 civilians last Tuesday. Both China and the US are calling for restraint.
Tensions are spiraling rapidly. India closed its airspace to Pakistan on Wednesday and ordered nearly all Pakistani citizens to leave the country last week. Pakistan – while denying any involvement in the attacks – also canceled visas last week for most Indian citizens in retaliation. The scenes of rapid flight evoked painful memories of the 1947 Partition when Hindus in Pakistan and Muslims in India fled bloody ethnic massacres in the newly formed nations.
How bad could it get? The two countries have had two major wars, in 1965 and 1971, both of which India won, in the latter case quite decisively. In the ensuing decades, however, India has utterly outstripped Pakistan economically, militarily, and diplomatically, which means that Islamabad’s chances of prevailing in a conventional confrontation are very slim.
The balance of power shifted nonetheless when Pakistan began developing nuclear weapons in 1972 to match the India program begun in 1967. This has prevented a full-scale attack ever since. When the two sides went to war in 1999, hostilities lasted just over two months and were geographically limited to the Himalayas. If New Delhi should be foolish enough to existentially threaten its neighbor, it raises the grim – albeit unlikely – prospect of a nuclear exchange.
We’re watching for a limited engagement, but we’re far from sanguine about the risks.
A contingent of security forces from Guatemala holds a Guatemala flag as they arrive in Haiti for a security mission, at Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-Au-Prince Haiti January 4, 2025.
Guatemalan troops arrive in Haiti to combat gang violence
A total of150 Guatemalan soldiers landed in Haiti on Friday and Saturday to join a United Nations-backed mission led by Kenya aimed at curbing rampant gang violence.
The troops, drawn from Guatemala’s military police, were welcomed ata ceremony Friday at Port-au-Prince’s international airport by Haitian leaders, including Transitional Presidential Council head Leslie Voltaire and Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé. US Ambassador Dennis Hankins also attended.
The 400 Kenyan police officers leading the mission have struggled to restore order in Haiti, where armed gangs control much of the capital. Despite international efforts, violence has escalated, with gangs storming prisons, targeting diplomatic vehicles, and conducting murderous rampages such as thevoodoo-fueled massacre of nearly 200 people in the capital last month.
In a statement, Normil Rameau, the acting director general of the National Police, said a “marriage” of the police with the people of Haiti remains “the most effective way to facilitate the total restoration of security and the establishment of lasting peace.” We’re watching whether this latest military contingent can help cement that union in the war-torn country.
Ukrainian Armed Forces are deployed in the middle of the conflict with Russia on December 16, 2024. Ukraine claims that Russia has begun sending North Korean soldiers en masse to assaults in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces repel daily Russian attacks and control important areas.
North Korea preparing to send more troops to Russia as casualties rise, says Seoul
South Korean military officials said Monday that they had detected North Korean preparations to deploy more troops and weapons to Russia, and elaborated that at least 100 of Pyongyang’s soldiers had been killed and 1,000 more wounded so far, while Ukrainians claim 200 have died and nearly 3,000 had been wounded. If Seoul’s estimates are accurate, that would mean approximately one out of every ten troops dispatched since late October has already taken a wound or died.
The high casualty figures may stem from lack of battlefield experience and modern equipment, as North Korean units embedded with Russian peers attempt to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk region. It isn’t dampening Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s enthusiasm for cooperating with Russia, however, with the South Korean military claiming he has developed new suicide drones to send to the battlefront. US intelligence agencies said Monday that they believe North Korea offered Russia its troops, rather than the request originating in Moscow, in expectation of help with defense technology and political backing on the world stage.
Watch out for a nasty New Year’s gift, too. Seoul says Pyongyang may attempt to test a hypersonic missile in late December or early January. Just ahead of a presidential transition in the US, and with chaos in South Korean politics caused by impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s attempt to impose martial law on Dec. 3, don’t hold your breath for a strong response.