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North Koreans take part in a parade to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang October 10, 2010.
North Korean troops in Ukraine? Really?
In yesterday’s edition, we noted awarning from South Korea’s defense minister that North Korea was “highly likely” to deploy troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. It is not yet clear how many troops would be committed or what their mission would be, but the move, if it happens, would make some sense. Vladimir Putin remains reluctant to order mass conscription since that might give a lot more Russians a reason to openly oppose his war. And anew report citing sources inside the Moscow mayor’s office says that “volunteer fighters aged 45 and over now make up half of new [Russian army] recruits in Moscow.” The North Koreans might be getting access to some valuable Russian advanced technology in return for their soldiers.
But we have more questions. North Korean troops have long demonstrated excellent goose-stepping skills at large-scale parades, but none have ever experienced combat. How will they respond to the meat grinder battlefields of eastern Ukraine? Given the Russian military’s manylogistical failures over the past 32 months, how will it handle the coordination of North Korean troops? What happens when North Korean soldiers, facing horrible battlefield conditions, decide they’d rather defect and live in Kyiv?
These are questions Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will likely continue pondering before they approve anything beyond a symbolic deployment.ChatGPT website displayed on a laptop screen is seen in this illustration photo taken in Milano, Italy, on February 21 2023
Hard Numbers: ChatGPTers double, Japan’s AI military, Google’s AI pop-ups, Magic money, Musk vs. Brazil
200 million: OpenAI says it now counts 200 million weekly users of ChatGPT, which has doubled in the past year. It also claims that 92% of Fortune 500 companies use its products for writing, coding, and organizational help.
59 billion: Japan’s military is having a recruitment problem. With only 10,000 of its citizens enlisting this year — half of its target — the government is investing $59 billion, a 7% yearly increase, to add additional capabilities including artificial intelligence. It’s spending $123 million alone on an AI surveillance system for its military bases.
17: A new report from the consultancy Authoritas found that Google is offering its AI Overviews — those pop-up AI-generated answers to users’ Googled questions — on 17% of user queries. The search engine company came under fire for its inaccurate AI-generated responses earlier this year and since then has reportedly reduced the frequency with which its suggested answers pop up.
320 million: The startup Magic, whose AI models generate computer code and automate software, raised $320 million in a funding round from former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, among others. The San Francisco-based firm also announced a partnership with Google to build two new supercomputers on the tech giant’s cloud platform.
24: X is now shut down in Brazil, the escalation of a legal dispute between the company’s owner, Elon Musk, and the country’s top court. Musk has criticized Brazil for requesting the company remove certain accounts. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes on Friday gave Musk 24 hours to name a legal representative in the country or else face a national ban. Musk refused and, in response, posted an AI-generated image of de Moraes behind bars, writing, “One day, @Alexandre, this picture of you in prison will be real. Mark my words.”Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra attends a press conference at the Pheu Thai party headquarters after the royal endorsement ceremony.
New Thai PM’s party ejects military-backed coalition partners
The Pheu Thai party announced Monday that it would eject the military-backed Palang Pracharat party from its incoming government.
The move comes after Palang Pracharat’s leader Prawit Wongsuwon, a former army chief with powerful royal connections, refused to attend the vote to approve new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. As a result, Pheu Thai will lose 40 Palang Pracharat representatives, but its leaders say they expect to maintain a majority in Parliament.
Politics are personal in Thailand: Prawit participated in the 2006 coup against Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and the 2014 coup against her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra. The billionaire Shinawatra clan and its Pheu Thai party formed an alliance of necessity last year with the military to prevent the upstart reformist Move Forward party from taking power, despite winning the most votes in the 2023 election. Pheu Thai took the helm last August, and Thaksin returned from exile and was pardoned by King Vajiralongkorn.
It’s not a total schism: Pheu Thai will still work with the United Thai Nation party, also heavily linked to the military and monarchy, and Paetongtarn has consistently opposed repealing laws against criticizing the king (but there is plenty to criticize).
Pheu Thai needs middle-class Thai voters. The military-monarchy connection is deeply rooted in Thailand, and voters have generally tolerated military intervention in the name of national security. There’s no sign of a looming coup — but the Shinawatras are 0 for 2 when it comes to peaceful transitions out of power.
As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
Alaska is on the front lines of an increasingly hostile US-Russian relationship. With the Arctic Circle melting and shipping lanes opening, things could get ugly fast.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy. He is clear-eyed about the growing military importance of Alaska as tensions rise in the Arctic, especially with increased Russian and Chinese activity in the region. “Alaska is truly the operational fort for North America,” he tells Bremmer. Dunleavy also calls for more investment in military infrastructure, including icebreaker ships, to secure America's Arctic frontier. “We only have two [icebreakers] in the United States. Because of Alaska's position and what is happening now geopolitically and with a warming Arctic, Alaska should have a minimum of five icebreakers."
Dunleavy also frames Alaska as “an energy and economic giant" poised to lead in America’s energy future. He underscores Alaska’s vast natural resources, from oil and gas to rare earth minerals. “We have 49 of the world's 50 rare earth elements. The largest gold mine on the planet is up there. The list goes on and on.” He also highlights Alaska’s renewable energy potential, including geothermal, wind, and tidal power, framing the state as a key player in the global energy transition.
Dunleavy, a Republican, also criticizes his state’s relationship with the federal government, which he says often treats the state "like a large national park." He argues that Alaska’s resources are critical not just for the state but for the nation, especially as the world shifts towards greener technologies that rely on rare minerals. The governor also emphasizes the need for streamlined federal permitting processes to fully unlock Alaska's potential, both economically and environmentally.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces US-2 search-and-rescue amphibian plane, manufactured by ShinMaywa Industries Ltd, is seen in this updated handout photo released by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces, and obtained by Reuters on November 4, 2013
US, Japan boost military ties
The United States and Japan announced Sunday that they will deepen defense cooperation in response to increasing threats from Russia and China. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Japanese counterparts Minoru Kihara and Yoko Kamikawaannounced the move in a joint statement following a meeting in Tokyo. The announcement builds on Japan’s 2022 commitment to boost defense spending to 2% of its GDP by 2027, which will make it the third-largest defense budget in the world.
Japan currently hosts 54,000 American troops, hundreds of US aircraft, and Washington’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier strike group. The new plan will reconstitute US forces in Japan into a joint force headquarters for better coordination. And for the first time, the two countries also discussed “extended deterrence,” meaning a US commitment to use nuclear force to deter attacks on allies.
Austin described the move as a “historic decision.” The two countries criticized Moscow’s “growing and provocative strategic military cooperation” with Beijing and labeled China’s “political, economic, and military coercion” the “greatest strategic challenge” facing the region and the world.
So far, there has been no official response from Moscow or Beijing, butpro-China media warn the deal will “put Tokyo in the front line of a counterattack from other countries, including a nuclear conflict” – a sensitive subject on the eve of the 72nd anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, on Aug. 6 and 9.“Keep the nuclear codes away from that robot”
The United States has issued a warning to two fellow nuclear powers, in so many words telling China and Russia, “Keep your nuclear weapons firmly in human control.”
In a May 2 press briefing, US State Department official Paul Dean said that the government has explicitly told France and the United Kingdom that the decision to deploy nuclear weapons must stay out of reach of autonomous artificial intelligence systems — and said it welcomes China and Russia to make the same pronouncement.
Global powers are racing to level-up their military capabilities with cutting-edge artificial intelligence. The US military recently tested an autonomously controlled X-62A jet in a dogfight simulation, which it called a success; and AI has been used on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, the US is trying to cut off China from powerful computer chips needed to run AI systems using stringent export controls, while giving grants to chipmakers willing to expand operations in America.
The State Department’s pronouncement sounds alarming, but the nuclear powers may, in fact, be on the same page, even if their diplomatic interests are more entrenched and complicated.
Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group’s practice head for Eurasia, says he doesn’t believe the US was accusing China or Russia of pursuing AI use in their nuclear command and control controls; rather, Washington is seeking public assurance on the matter. Still, since the US-Russia diplomatic relationship has been strained by the war in Ukraine, Russia might revel in the ambiguity.
“That’s not necessarily because Russia intends to explore the use of AI this way,” Brideau says. “Instead, Moscow might want to add it to the broader set of security issues, nuclear and non-nuclear, that it wants Washington to negotiate over.”
Rick Waters and Jeremy Chan, from Eurasia Group’s China practice, said they think China is on the same page as the US regarding this norm. Chan pointed out that Zhang Jun, who until recently served as China’s permanent representative to the UN, made two important points in a UN speech in March: (1) “nuclear weapons must never be used and a nuclear war never fought,” and (2) “countries should continue to enhance the safety, reliability, and controllability of AI technology and ensure that relevant weapon systems are under human control at all times.”
China may issue an explicit statement after the upcoming US-China dialogue, expected in the coming weeks. That said, Chan thinks Beijing may be reluctant to do so given other unresolved disagreements with the US over nuclear doctrine — “namely the US refusal to commit to a no-first-use policy and reduce its nuclear stockpile.”
The US is simply trying to avoid a classic sci-fi scenario: What algorithm can doom civilization without humanity’s involvement? Surely, that’s the quickest path to annihilation. Luckily, it sounds like its adversaries are already on the same page.
Commander Shingo Nashinoki, 50, and soldiers of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force's Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB), Japan's first marine unit since World War Two, take part in a military drill as U.S. Marines observe, on the uninhabited Irisuna island close to Okinawa, Japan, November 15, 2023.
Japanese troops in the Philippines?
Before an historic trilateral meeting on April 12 between US President Joe Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the Philippine ambassador to the US has said Tokyo and Manila are negotiating a “reciprocal access agreement” that would allow the Japanese and Philippine militaries to train and conduct joint exercises on each other’s territory. Given the ugly World War II history between the two countries, that would be a startling development.
Japan’s foreign ministry has cast doubt on the specifics of this plan. It’s true, said a spokesperson, that the “implementation of this agreement will enhance the interoperability of the Japanese and Philippine] troops, but it is not true that we are discussing deploying the Self-Defense Forces in the Philippines,” he added.
It’s not clear, however, whether a temporary placement of Japanese troops in the Philippines to take part in joint exercises with US forces stationed there would create the same controversy inside Japan, where pacifism remains a potent political force, as a more permanent rotation of Japanese forces there.
But it is clear that the US, Japan, and the Philippines want Beijing to recognize their concerns over assertive Chinese actions in the South China Sea.
Paramilitary soldiers stand guard along a road, ahead of the general elections in Karachi, Pakistan February 7, 2024.
Pakistanis vote but don’t decide who’s in charge
On Thursday, Pakistan is holding what should be one of the largest elections this year – but with the country’s most popular leader locked up, the military tilting the scales, and over two dozen killed this week in terrorist bombings, can it be called “democracy?”
The background: Since independence from Britain in 1947, no Pakistani prime minister has completed a full term. “The Establishment,” aka the military, quietly holds all the cards and has seized direct power four times. Civilian politics since the 1980s, has – broadly speaking – been dominated by the Bhutto clan and their archrivals, the Sharif family, with the military playing each side against the other.
But these two political dynasties broke the system in 2008, when they banded together to oust Pervez Musharraf, who had seized power in a coup nine years earlier. Their defiance led to the military backing Pakistan’s former World Cup-winning cricket captain Imran Khan and his newly formed Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which went on to win the 2018 elections.
But that relationship quickly soured, leading to Khan’s 2022 ouster in a vote of no confidence, which Khan attributes to collusion between the military, traditional parties, and Washington (which denies involvement).
The vote: The election was delayed twice as the incumbent government maneuvered to exclude Khan from contention and suppress his party. Last summer, Khan was drawing a 60% approval rating, nearly twice that of his closest rivals. The government successfully detained Khan in May and has since sentenced him to decades in prison, banning him from holding office on charges his supporters call bogus.
Khan has tried to keep fighting. He held a virtual rally where an AI-generated avatar delivered his speech and created an app to guide his voters as his party’s candidates are forced to run as independents. But with the deck stacked so heavily against him, these efforts look doomed to fail.
Instead, three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif – who recently returned from exile in a deal forged by the military and was cleared by Pakistan’s supreme court to run – is favored to win over main rival Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (recognize those names?).
We’ll be watching voter turnout as a sign of how many Pakistani are protesting Khan's exclusion, and for the possibility of more violence from extremist groups after nearly 1,000 Pakistanis were killed in terrorist attacks last year.