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Indian paramilitary soldiers patrol along a road in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 29, 2025.
India and Pakistan inch toward a major clash
Nerves are fraught throughout Pakistan after authorities said Wednesday they have “credible intelligence” that India plans to launch military strikes on its soil by Friday, fueling fears of an outright clash between the two nuclear-armed archrivals. Troops from both sides have been exchanging fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir since a terrorist attack in the Indian-controlled section killed 26 civilians last Tuesday. Both China and the US are calling for restraint.
Tensions are spiraling rapidly. India closed its airspace to Pakistan on Wednesday and ordered nearly all Pakistani citizens to leave the country last week. Pakistan – while denying any involvement in the attacks – also canceled visas last week for most Indian citizens in retaliation. The scenes of rapid flight evoked painful memories of the 1947 Partition when Hindus in Pakistan and Muslims in India fled bloody ethnic massacres in the newly formed nations.
How bad could it get? The two countries have had two major wars, in 1965 and 1971, both of which India won, in the latter case quite decisively. In the ensuing decades, however, India has utterly outstripped Pakistan economically, militarily, and diplomatically, which means that Islamabad’s chances of prevailing in a conventional confrontation are very slim.
The balance of power shifted nonetheless when Pakistan developed nuclear weapons in 1972 to match those that India built in 1967. This has prevented a full-scale attack ever since. When the two sides went to war in 1999, hostilities lasted just over two months and were geographically limited to the Himalayas. If New Delhi should be foolish enough to existentially threaten its neighbor, it raises the grim – albeit unlikely – prospect of a nuclear exchange.
We’re watching for a limited engagement, but we’re far from sanguine about the risks.
71 Islamist militants have been killed along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in recent days.
The Graphic Truth: Pakistan kills Afghan militants
Pakistan accused the infiltrators of working for the Pakistani Taliban, a sister terrorist organization to the group that now controls Afghanistan. Islamabad says the Pakistani Taliban is orchestrating a campaign of violence that has rocked the country in recent months with high-profile bombings and shootings
Pakistan’s information minister claimed that India was encouraging the Taliban to strike in a bid to distract Islamabad’s forces from a simultaneous confrontation in Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan partially occupy the disputed mountain region and have traded fire in small skirmishes in recent days after Islamist militants killed 26 civilians last week in the largest terrorist attack to hit the region in years. Indian forces have detained over 1,500 people and destroyed several houses linked to alleged perpetrators. China, a major ally of Pakistan’s, is urging restraint on both sides.
Students shout slogans and burn an effigy to protest the Pahalgam terror attack in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 24, 2025. On April 22, a devastating terrorist attack occurs in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 tourists.
India threatens Pakistan’s water
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has blamed Pakistan for Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, and he’s takenaggressive action against its government. The most striking of these moves is a decision to suspend theIndus Waters Treaty, which sets terms for the sharing of water that flows from the Indus River and its tributaries from India into Pakistan.
Pakistanis depend on water from the Indus for drinking, farming, and hydropower. Some80% of Pakistan’s water comes from these rivers, and agriculture is the only source of income for 70% of its rural population.
Water-sharing between the two countries has generated controversy in recent years. In particular, Pakistan charges that India’sconstruction of dams upstream is cheating Pakistan of much-needed volumes of water.
This is the first time the treaty has been suspended, despite multiple wars between the two nuclear-armed neighbors since the Indus River agreement, brokered by the World Bank, was signed in September 1960. Indian officials threatened to suspend the treaty following a suicide bombing in 2019, but Modi’s government didn’t follow through.
There is no evidence yet that India is restricting the flow of water, but Pakistan’s government says it will treat any diversion of water as an act of war.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, right, and President Donald Trump's envoy Richard Grenell shake hands at the Miraflores Palace, in Caracas, Venezuela, on Jan. 31, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela releases Americans, Balochistan fighting kills Pakistani soldiers, Syrian leader visits Saudi Arabia, Queensland faces floods, Zelensky decries airstrikes, Groundhog sees shadow
6: On Friday, Venezuela released six detained Americans, sending them home with Richard Grenell, the US envoy for special missions, following his talks with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. President Donald Trump said Saturday that Venezuela had agreed to take back the Venezuelan migrants facing deportation from the US and to “supply the transportation.”
18: Pakistan said Saturday that 18 of its soldiers were killed while fighting separatist insurgents who had set up a roadblock on a key highway in the restive Balochistan region. Twenty-three rebels were also killed in the fighting, and the roadblock has been removed, according to security forces.
1: Syria’s newly named interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, on Sunday made his first international trip since leading his rebel group in the overthrow of former President Bashar Assad in December. Al-Sharaa landed in Saudi Arabia, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who pledged his support for Syria.
4.2: Northern Queensland, Australia, is facing its worst flooding in 60 years. One woman has died and thousands have fled their homes as 4.2 feet of rain fell on the region over the weekend. More rain was predicted for Monday.
1,400: Russia launched more than 1,400 airstrikes against Ukraine last week, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is appealing for more Western support. On Saturday, he accused Moscow of hitting its own civilians in the Kursk region.
6: If you’re tired of the cold weather, this is going to come as bad news: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Sunday, Groundhog Day, and predicted six more weeks of winter. Bundle up!Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan pauses as he speaks with Reuters during an interview, in Lahore, Pakistan in March 2023.
Hard Numbers: Pakistan indicts Imran Khan (again), RFK wants polio vaccine revoked, India eyes one election, Australia charges big tech, Zuckerberg and Bezos make YUGE donations
200: Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, were indicted on Thursday on charges of unlawfully selling state gifts, including jewelry, at undervalued prices. They pleaded not guilty the same day, calling the charges politically motivated amid nearly 200 cases Khan has faced since his 2022 ouster. Khan and Bibi received 14-year sentences before this year’s election, but those terms were suspended on appeal following a prior three-year sentence in a related case.
14: A lawyer for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Donald Trump's pick to helm the Department of Health and Human Services, has filed a petition to pause the distribution of 14 vaccines – including polo, hepatitis A, and other deadly diseases. The petition also asks the agency to revoke its polio vaccine approval and end COVID-19 vaccine mandates around the country.
1: India’s cabinet has approved legislation for simultaneous national and state elections, the first step in advancing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “One Nation One Election” plan. Supporters say it would put a stop to India’s state of “perpetual elections,” but critics argue it would favor the national ruling party, Modi’s BJP, in local races.
160,000,000: In its latest crackdown on Big Tech, Australia will charge social media giants like Meta and Google millions if they don’t pay local media for news content. All platforms with revenue over AU$160 million will be obliged to pay up, but charges will be offset by any commercial agreements voluntarily struck between the platforms and news media businesses.
1,000,000: Nothing says sorry quite like cold hard cash. Meta announced on Wednesday that it's donating $1 million to the inaugural fund of President-elect Donald Trump, and Amazon.com, not to be outdone, plans to do the same. The moves appear to be fence-mending gestures – or, as critics call them, attempts to curry favor. Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg's relationship with the president-elect soured after Facebook and Instagram suspended Trump’s accounts in 2021 for his praise of the Jan. 6 Capitol rioters, and Trump has been critical of Jeff Bezos for owning the Washington Post -- and the newspaper's political coverage.
Security force personnel walk as smoke billows from tear gas shells fired to prevent an anti-government protest by supporters of the former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) demanding the release of Khan, in Islamabad, Pakistan, November 26, 2024
“Fight to the end:” Islamabad on edge after day of violent protests
Supporters of jailed former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan broke through numerous barricades and clashed with police in the capital, Islamabad, on Tuesday, leaving at least six people — two civilians and four security officers — dead. Led by Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, protesters occupied D-Chowk, a large square in the city center, for several hours before retreating at dusk.
Bibi said the protests would continue until her husband — currently serving a three-year sentence on corruption charges he denies — was released. Khan, for his part, has urged supporters to “fight to the end” on social media. But on Wednesday, Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, said the demonstrations were “temporarily suspended” owing to “government brutality.”
It’s unclear where the protesters, many of whom came to the capital in large convoys, went as they dispersed on Tuesday. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who’s been in discussions with protest leaders, said he had suggested areas on the outskirts of Islamabad where protest rallies could be held as a compromise.
Despite the pause, more violence seems likely in the days ahead, and the government has invoked its power to deploy the army to quell public unrest. Naqvisaid police were “showing restraint” with protesters but warned that they were authorized to use deadly force if demonstrators again tried to cross into central Islamabad. Khan’s PTI claimed police had already used live rounds against protesters and that 12 of them had been injured.
FILE PHOTO: In the photos taken on January 31, 2024, Ukrainian soldiers are deployed in the middle of the conflict with Russia. Ukrainian Intelligence has stated that Russian forces "have already made use" of some missiles delivered to the country by North Korea as part of the invasion and has stressed that there is "cooperation between the two regimes" at a military and weapons.
Hard Numbers: North Koreans killed in Russia, Ireland approaches crucial vote, Pakistan locks down over Khan, Bitcoin to the moon!
500: Ukrainian media reported Sunday that a strike on North Korean forces operating in the Kursk region of Russia killed at least 500 troops, though Pyongyang has not (and probably won’t) confirm the figures. If true, it would be the first major casualty incident for the Korean People’s Army while fighting Ukraine, and the sheer number of deaths at once may be difficult for Pyongyang to explain at home.
20: The left-leaning Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein is polling at 20% ahead of elections on the Emerald Isle on Friday, neck-and-neck with the ruling Fine Gael party at 22%. Sinn Fein looks likely to be able to block Fine Gael and its coalition partner from forming a majority government, but it would need to majorly outperform polling to take charge of the government itself as other parties have sworn not to cooperate.
150: Pakistan’s government on Sunday blocked expressways leading into the capital, Islamabad, shut down cell phone and internet service, and placed shipping containers across major thoroughfares amid mass protests calling for the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The ex-cricket-star-turned-politician is facing 150 criminal charges (all of which he denies) and has been serving a three-year prison sentence since last year.
100,000: The cryptocurrency known as Bitcoin reached a value of $100,000 per token on Friday, a record high fueled by the expectation of a friendlier environment for crypto under the incoming Trump administration. Ten years ago, it was trading for about $350.Charred vehicles in Balochistan province, Pakistan, following separatist militant attacks.
The Balochistan backstory: Pakistan’s festering rebellion
At least 70 people are dead after a wave of attacks in Pakistan claimed by the Baloch Liberation Army.
The who? Well, let’s start with where:Balochistan. A sprawling, mountainous province in Southwest Pakistan that borders Iran, Afghanistan, and the Arabian Sea. It’s home to about 15 million people, a plurality of whom are Balochis, a Persian ethnic group. Despite huge natural resource wealth, which Pakistan and others have exploited, Balochistan is extremely poor. This has fueled tensions with the Pakistani government for decades.
The Baloch Liberation Army began its struggle for independence around 2000, launching terror attacks against the central government and non-Baloch communities in Balochistan.
Pakistan and the US consider the BLA a terrorist group, and Pakistan accuses India, Iran, and Afghanistan of supporting it. The group is believed to fund itself through smuggling and donations from the Baloch diaspora.
In recent years, the BLA has begun attacking the citizens and interests of China, which in 2015 took control of the province’s port at Gwadar as part of a $65 billion China-Pakistan economic corridor project.
A recent rise in BLA violence compounds the headache for a Pakistani government that took over a country in crisis following heavily disputed elections in February.