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Hard Numbers: Kim Jong Un takes aim, Pakistan launches deadly airstrikes, Sunak’s asylum-seeking plan proves costly, Oceans take the heat
186: Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: On Monday, North Korea responded to a visit to South Korea by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken by firing short-range ballistic missiles from Pyongyang an estimated 186 miles into the Sea of Japan. North Korea’s military has recently staged military maneuvers in response to annual US-South Korean joint drills.
8: Pakistan launched airstrikes on Monday on suspected hideouts of members of the Pakistani Taliban inside neighboring Afghanistan. Tensions are rising between Pakistan’s military and the Afghan Taliban, which claimed the attacks killed at least eight people.
292,000: A new report from the Institute for Public Policy Research argues that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to move asylum-seekers from the UK to Rwanda while their claims are evaluated could cost the British taxpayer $292,000 per person. Compare that with about 70,000 per person if migrants were allowed to remain in the UK during that period.
365: A research collaboration between the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration and Climate Reanalyzer found that the world’s oceans have set global sea surface temperature records for 365 days in a row. That’s thought to be caused by climate change and this year’s El Nino weather pattern.Hard Numbers: Republicans regret Trump, Bosnia gets EU pathway, Pakistan swears in cabinet, Somalia’s pirates seize the moment
50 million:Donald Trump may have a chokehold on the Republican Party, but that doesn’t mean he has a grip on all Republicans. The group Republicans Voters Against Trump, which first appeared in 2020, has recently raised $50 million to produce a campaign of video testimonials by Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but say they just can’t do it again this year.
30: Almost 30 years since the end of the Yugoslav civil wars, Bosnia and Herzegovina will be invited to begin EU accession talks, despite still-simmering ethnic tensions between Bosniaks and Serbs in the country. The talks are no guarantee of joining, which can take many years, but the perception of growing Russian influence in the Balkans has heightened Brussels’ interest in getting membership talks on track. Of the six former Yugoslav republics, only Slovenia and Croatia are in the EU.
19: Pakistan’s newly elected Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has a cabinet in place after its 19 members were sworn in earlier this week. They have their work cut out for them. Pakistan is mired in a severe economic crisis and must, almost immediately, negotiate a fresh $3 billion IMF loan package. Meanwhile, the streets are still hot with protesters supporting jailed opposition leader and former PM Imran Khan, whose alliance won the most votes in last month’s election but was shut out of government by Sharif’s coalition.
23: For the first time since December, Somali pirates successfully hijacked a vessel off the Horn of Africa, taking the 23 crew members of a Bangladeshi-flagged bulk carrier hostage. As Houthi attacks in the Red Sea draw much of the naval security attention in the region, the fearsome pirates of Somali are letting that Jolly Roger fly.Hard Numbers: Pakistan’s well-fed predators, Russia’s cool prices, Biden’s unrealistic budget, Telegram’s big moment
20: What can 20 Pakistani rupees ($0.07) buy you? A defense against misfortune sounds like a bargain. That’s the price you’ll pay for a packet of scrap meat to throw to predatory birds in Lahore. The practice is an age-old tradition that has survived despite intensifying efforts by the authorities to stamp it out. Wildlife experts say it encourages overpopulation and aggression in the bird populations, but a local rickshaw driver tells Reuters he does it anyway to “keep his life safe.”
0.6: New data from Russia this week will show consumer prices rose just 0.6% in February. Annual inflation is likely even lower than the last reading of 7.5%. That’s not stellar, no, but for a sanctions-wracked economy where inflation hit nearly 18% after invading Ukraine, it’s another sign the West hasn’t really crippled the Kremlin’s war machine. Vladimir Putin, for his part, is confident enough in the inflation numbers to uncork $126 billion in social spending ahead of his “election” this weekend.
7.3 trillion: Speaking of spending, US President Joe Bidenunveiled a $7.3 trillion budget proposal on Monday featuring massive new social spending financed by tax hikes on corporations and the mega-rich. Non-partisan analysts say the math is “unrealistic,” and it has zero chance of passing a GOP-run House anyway. But it’s not meant for Capitol Hill; it’s meant for the campaign trail, where Biden is trying to convince American voters that “Bidenomics” is a win. Polls show skepticism, despite improving economic data.
900 million: Social media apps owned by “China,” Mark Zuckerberg, or Elon Musk may get all the attention these days, but the messaging app Telegram has quietly hit 900 million regular users (nearly 3X that of X) and is mulling an IPO. The freewheeling Dubai-based platform, created by Russian-born entrepreneur Pavel Durov, has emerged as a major free speech hub, particularly in Russia, but it has also drawn criticism for allegedly allowing criminal activity and “misinformation.”
Hard Numbers: Sharif’s return to power, Burkina Faso killings, Boeing’s big fine, Trump’s delegates
201:Shehbaz Sharifsecured 201 votes in Pakistan’s parliament to become prime minister after a bitterly contested election in which former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s supporters shocked the establishment, delivering the greatest vote share to independent candidates allied to Khan.
170: Authorities in Burkina Faso say jihadist factions killed at least 170 people during raids into three settlements in the country’s north, as extremism spirals in the wake of a 2022 military coup. Jihadist violence has killed over 20,000 people and displaced 2 million in Burkina Faso, one of the poorest countries in West Africa.
51,000,000: Boeing is facing a hard landing, with the aerospace giant paying $51 million to settle over 200 violations of the Arms Export Control Act and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations laws, according to the State Department. The government says Boeing may have put national security at risk when its employees downloaded sensitive technical documents while physically located in China and Russia, among other countries.
244: After winning GOP primaries in Michigan, Missouri, and Idaho on Saturday, former President Donald Trump has 244 delegates - more than five times as many as his only remaining challenger, Nikki Haley. Trump’s lead is set to grow this week on “Super Tuesday,” but Haley did win her first primary on Sunday in Washington DC, which nearly doubled her vote count.Pakistan’s new government seeks more IMF assistance
On top of facing legitimacy questions following chaotic, violent elections tainted by widespread undemocratic practices, Pakistan’s new coalition government is inheriting an economy in crisis. These economic problems have been fueled by high energy costs, political dysfunction, flooding, and supply chain issues.
An economy in freefall. Pakistan inflation hovers around a whopping 30%, and its GDP fell 0.6% in 2023, per the World Bank. Meanwhile, Tabadlab, an Islamabad-based think tank, recently warned that the country’s debt is a “raging fire” that’s become unsustainable: Interest payments are eating up roughly 57% of government revenues.
“Unless there are sweeping reforms and dramatic changes to the status quo, Pakistan will continue to sink deeper, headed towards an inevitable default,” Tabadlab’s report said.
What can be done? Pakistan barely avoided debt default last year thanks to the help of a short-term IMF lending agreement, but that’s set to expire in April. The incoming government reportedly plans to pursue a $6 billion loan from the IMF to help it stay afloat. The IMF has signaled it’s open to discussing another arrangement with the new government, but we’ll be watching to see whether Pakistan’s political turmoil becomes an obstacle to securing more funds.
Imran Khan: “The Poster Boy for Populism"
Weeks after a chaotic general election, Pakistan’s political parties still struggle to form a coalition to move the country forward. GZERO’s Tony Maciulis sat down with Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Hina Khar at the Munich Security Conference for her take on how the nation’s imprisoned ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan maintains a hold over supporters and remains a powerful political force.
Independent candidates mostly aligned with Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), won the most votes on February 8, though they fell short of a majority, setting off a power struggle between Khan and his political rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Comparing Khan to former US President Donald Trump and India’s leader Narendra Modi, Khar said, “He really represents what populist leaders are all about. He’s able to get everybody to rally around what all is wrong and the great injustices. However, when he comes to power, he doesn’t have any to plan to sort it out.”
Khar explained that Khan’s popularity flows from his ability to tap into the frustrations of his base, who are deeply concerned about rising costs of living, including food and energy prices.
While she hopes the political parties will be able to come to a resolution that respects the voters' mandate, Khar says “the jury is out” about whether Khan will ultimately bow out of the process.
Khar also addressed the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and neighboring India. In a past interview with GZERO, she had described India as a “rogue nation,” a claim she stood by once again in Munich. Modi’s popularity, she said, “is based on anti-Muslim, anti-Islam” sentiments that resonate with Hindu nationalist supporters.
Coalition deal shuts out Khan in Pakistan
Candidates affiliated with imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most votes in last week’s election in Pakistan, but no single party won a clear majority, so a coalition government had to be formed.
On Tuesday, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, aka PLMN, and the Pakistan People’s Party, or PPP, announced that they had agreed to form a coalition government with two smaller, regional parties.
And Khan? Having been removed from office in 2022 after losing the support of Pakistan’s military, Khan knows all too well how much the country’s army has worked to sideline him in this election.
While independent candidates largely aligned with his party won the most seats, the newly formed coalition means Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is shut out.
Who will lead? The new coalition said that PLMN President Shahbaz Sharif – an ex-prime minister and the younger brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif – will be the nominee for prime minister. The presidency is expected to go to the PPP’s Asif Ali Zardari.
Buckle up. While the military is likely to wield its considerable influence to help ensure the governing coalition doesn’t collapse, the parties involved are generally considered rivals, so it may be difficult to keep them unified.
Pakistani politics are notoriously volatile — the country has never seen a prime minister complete a full five-year term in its 77-year history as an independent nation.
Imran Khan’s AI prison address
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan needed a tech solution to get his message out during the Pakistani parliamentary elections.
Khan, himself disqualified from running due to his prison sentence on corruption charges, has spent months urging voters to help elect his political allies, independent candidates affiliated with his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf political party. Khan, unable to record an address from prison, used an AI-generated version of his voice to read it.
After the results of the disputed election came in on Saturday, with both Khan and fellow former prime minister Nawaz Sharif claiming victory, Khan used his trusty AI voice clone to deliver a victory speech.