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Police in and around a high school in Graz, Austria, after a gunman killed nine people at the school, on June 10, 2025.
What We’re Watching: School shooting in Austria, Duterte impeachment update, Crapo shoots for the moon
Shooter kills nine at Austrian school
A gunman killed at least nine people at a school in Graz, Austria, on Tuesday, in what appears to be the worst school shooting in the country’s post-war history. The 21-year-old suspect, who was an ex-student of the school, reportedly took his own life. Austria has relatively liberal gun laws, compared to some other European countries, so we’ll be watching to see if this tragedy prompts any debate about tighter restrictions.
Could Duterte nab an impeachment reprieve?
The Philippines Senate on Tuesday sent impeachment articles against Vice President Sara Duterte back to the House for constitutional clarifications. It’s a reprieve for Duterte, who faces impeachment on allegations of high crimes, including a plot to kill her political (and dynastic) rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The stakes are high: if impeached, Duterte could be blocked from running for president in 2028. The political blowback could be severe, thoug: The vice president’s party outperformed expectations in last month’s midterm elections.
Trump’s Big Bill is now a Crapo-shoot
All eyes in Washington are today on Sen. Mike Crapo, Republican from Idaho who, as chairman of the Finance Committee, will be marking up President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax-and-spending bill. Crapo has his work cut out: A cadre of budget hawk GOP senators have called for cuts to the spending outlined in the House-passed version of the bill, while others are worried that any significant savings will come at the expense of Medicaid or other popular programs. Rock, meet hard place: Over to you, Mike.
Graphic Truth: The Big, Beautiful, Expensive Bill
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office warned that the House-passed Republican tax and spending bill (the “Big, Beautiful Bill”) would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, raising concerns it will further exacerbate the US’s debt issue. Senate Republicans do plan to revise the bill: some push for deeper tax cuts – which would increase the cost of the bill – while others seek to scale back Medicaid and clean-energy benefits, which offset some of the costs.
Beijing's Tiananmen Square on June 4, 2025, the 36th anniversary of China's Tiananmen Square crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators.
HARD NUMBERS: Tiananmen Square anniversary, Prison break in Pakistan, & More
36: Today marks the 36th anniversary of China’s deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protesters occupying Tiananmen Square on June 4th, 1989. The death toll from the day remains disputed, though certain groups have put it in the thousands. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio commemorated the crackdown yesterday, incurring the wrath of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry.
200: More than 200 inmates escaped a Pakistani prison in Karachi, a city of more than 20 million people, on Tuesday after a series of earthquakes damaged the facility. Early reports say police have re-arrested 80 of the inmates, meaning 120 or so remained at large.
4: “I want to see the tax cuts made permanent, but I also want to see the $5 trillion in new debt removed from the bill. At least4 of us in the Senate feel this way.” That’s the comment US Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) made on X on Tuesday about President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” If four Republican senators vote no on the bill, it will fail.
2: On Tuesday, two Chinese nationals were accused of smuggling a fungus into the United States that officials say is a potentially “dangerous biological pathogen.” The US Attorney’s Office in the eastern district of Michigan cites scientific reports that call this fungus a “potential agroterrorism weapon” that can destroy wheat, barley, maize and rice crops — and can sicken those who eat contaminated products.
Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, flanked by his family, during an election night rally in Warsaw, Poland, on June 1, 2025.
What We’re Watching this week: Poland retains a right-wing president, UN Security Council to vote on new members, & More
A conservative comeback in Poland
In a major blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s hopes of finally enacting his liberal and pro-Europe agenda, Law and Justice-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki defeated liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski in the final round of Poland’s presidential election. Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote in the head-to-head runoff. His win means a conservative will retain the presidency – Andrzej Duda had served for the previous decade – so there will continue to be a cap on what Tusk can achieve, given the president’s veto power.
Five new countries to enter the UN Security Council villa
The United Nations Security Council on Tuesday will elect five new temporary members to serve for the next two years, with Algeria, Guyana, South Korea, Sierra Leone, and Slovenia each set to end their terms this year. The 15-member council, which has five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States — tries to soothe global disputes, but has faced criticism for its failure to reform.
Guess who’s back?
The US Senate is back in session after its two-week Memorial Day hiatus, and it has something major on its docket: Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Before the break, the House passed the bill by a single vote, but Republicans in the upper chamber have already said they’d like to make some alterations. If they do, the House will have to vote on the bill again. Penny for your thoughts, Speaker Mike Johnson?Leading Republican senators during their weekly briefing in the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 20, 2025.
What We’re Watching: “Big Beautiful” bill heads for the Senate, UK gives up Chagos Islands, Taiwan pivots to drones
House passes Trump’s tax agenda, but senators will now have their say
By a margin of just one vote, the US House early on Thursday passed a budget bill containing President Donald Trump’s tax agenda, which centers on making his 2017 tax cuts permanent. Some last-minute changes to the bill helped to get it over the line: House Republicans increased the SALT-cap to $40,000 and accelerated the introduction of work requirements for Medicaid. But can the GOP get the bill through the US Senate? Lawmakers in the upper chamber are already plotting changes to the legislation...
You can Chagos your own way: UK hands islands back to Mauritius, leases back base
More than two centuries after taking the Chagos Islands from France, the United Kingdom relinquished the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius, but will continue to lease a US-UK military base there, on the island of Diego Garcia, for another 99 years. The UK says the deal, which creates a 24-mile buffer zone around the base, is meant to ensure its long-term security amid growing Chinese aggression in the area. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the deal.
Taiwan adds new drone units as part of shifting military strategy
Ever wary of a potential Chinese invasion, Taiwan announced that it will introduce its first-ever drone units this year. The move is part of Taipei’s evolving strategy of effectively deterring Beijing rather than preparing for a direct fight. “Overall, the cross-strait military balance still tilts toward China’s favor, since China spends a lot more on defense,” says Eurasia Group regional expert Ava Shen. “So it’s more pragmatic for Taiwan to be a ‘porcupine,’ so to speak.”
Donald Trump will take office with unprecedented power
Donald Trump’s 2024 election win gives him a powerful mandate from voters frustrated with government gridlock and bloated bureaucracy. That, along with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential power, means Trump will take office in January with unprecedented impunity to enact his agenda, radically remake the Federal government, and rewrite institutional norms. So what happens next? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Molly Ball, senior political reporter at The Wall Street Journal, and Nicole Hemmer, a political historian specializing in conservative media, discuss the implications of a second Trump presidency and how he plans to fulfill promises to voters frustrated with the status quo. Trump will be reined in by the Constitution, but beyond that, will face little accountability, giving him near-total power to enact sweeping changes to democratic institutions.
“I think a lot of people are frustrated with the feeling that our institutions are so calcified and bottle-necked that they don’t allow anything to get done,” Balls says, “So I think there is a mandate for Trump to actually execute on his agenda.”
“I think the idea that the president has free rein does have more popular support than I think many liberals and proponents of rule of law would hope,” Hemmer adds, “The idea that there are levers that can be pulled that will suddenly snap into place an accountability regime, those levers don't exist.”
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Biden's vigorous SOTU speech aims to prove doubters wrong
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
What's going on with the Biden State of the Union?
So big week in US presidential politics. Super Tuesday basically effectively ended both primaries for the Republicans and the Democrats. We now have two all but official candidates. Joe Biden gave his fourth State of the Union address this week. Big question around Joe Biden, is he up to the task? 75% of Americans say that he is too old to run for a second term, but he is a attempting to prove them wrong like he did last night in Washington with a vigorous speech where he spoke for an hour, which officially kicked off his campaign.
Biden spoke about themes of income inequality, he spoke in favor of aid to Ukraine, and he rolled out a couple of tax increases that Republicans don't like. There's a lot of risk in every public appearance that Biden gives these days because of the fact that Democrats are very concerned that he's going to make a verbal flub or that he's going to look physically frail. That did not happen last night, and I think that's a good sign for Biden for now.
But every time he goes on stage for the rest of the year, there's going to be concern about how old he looks. So the campaign can now begin in earnest. Biden didn't mention Donald Trump by name in the speech, but he did indirectly attack him, talking about how Republicans are the party of the rich and how the threats to democracy represented by this election. At least that's how Joe Biden wants to frame it.
Why Mitch McConnell is stepping down
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
What are the implications of the retirement of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell from his leadership post?
This week Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell announced his intention to step down as leader of the Republicans after serving longer in that post than anybody else in American history. There are really two implications that I can see.
The first is that McConnell was basically acknowledging the inevitable. It was very unlikely that he would be able to stay on as leader after this Congress anyway. If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, then he almost certainly is going to push McConnell out of the job. And if he didn't win the election, there's a whole generation of Republicans in the Senate who are looking for an opportunity to step up. McConnell, at 82 years old, did not represent that new generation. So the time had come to pass on the torch, and McConnell chose this February to announce it.
The second takeaway is that McConnell is really giving the speech the Democrats are hoping Joe Biden would give. McConnell's only eight months older than President Joe Biden, who's running for a second term right now. And lots of questions have come up recently about Biden's fitness for office because of his advanced age. This is going to be an increasing problem for Biden as more and more Democrats start talking about it. But in the absence of any challenger, it looks like Biden's going to be the nominee and his age will just be a liability they all have to learn to live with.