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Gasoline prices at a US Sunoco
US inflation rises for the first time in a year
Inflation in the US rose in July after consistently falling over the past 12 months. Spikes in rent, gasoline, and groceries reversed the downward trend, pushing prices 0.2% higher than in June and 3.2% higher than a year ago.
This past year, the Fed has aggressively raised interest rates, making it more expensive to borrow money, in a bid to cool off the economy, lower consumer demand and, in turn, lower prices. But the economy has been stubborn, thanks to low unemployment, rising wages, and stable spending – all of which are keeping inflation well beyond the Fed’s 2% target.
Luckily, many of the factors causing the spike in consumer prices are expected to be temporary, like extreme heat in the southern US that is limiting oil production. Many economists are still optimistic that the Fed can achieve a “soft landing,” meaning that they successfully bring down inflation without triggering a massive economic downturn.
So far, President Joe Biden doesn’t seem to be worried. But if prices continue to rise closer to the 2024 election, it could hurt his reelection bid. Gas and grocery prices directly hit consumers’ pocketbooks and have been known to influence voting behavior almost as much as a voter’s party affiliation.
Students protesting the US Supreme Court's ruling blocking student loan forgiveness
Supreme Court rejects Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan
Today, on the final day of its session, the US Supreme Court announced its decision to block President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness proposal, which would have canceled more than $400 billion in student loan debt for millions of borrowers.
While disappointing to the 40 million student loan borrowers who would have benefitted from the program, the odds of the conservative majority court ruling in favor of Biden’s proposal were slim. The 6-3 vote was split down ideological lines, with the court’s conservative justices arguing that the law does not authorize the Department of Education to cancel student loan debt.
Biden had justified his plan by using the HEROES Act, which allows the Secretary of Education to alleviate the hardship of student loan debt during times of national emergencies. But six states filed lawsuits accusing Biden of overstepping his authority.
Student loan forgiveness was one of Biden’s campaign promises in 2020. While those who supported it will likely blame the court, Friday’s ruling is a setback for the president as he looks ahead to his 2024 run for the White House. His popularity with millennials and Gen Z was already falling – it dropped 31 points since Biden took office to 39%, according to a Gallop polling data – and these groups are particularly passionate about racial justice and student debt.
This was a double whammy decision, coming on the heels of the high court’s ruling on Thursday to prohibit race-based college admissions, overturning decades of precedent for affirmative action. That decision echoed its 2022 Dobbs decision, which also ignored precedent and upended nationwide abortion access.
The Supreme Court’s power derives from it being perceived as an apolitical arbiter of the law, but the perceived conservative bias in the Dobbs decision caused confidence in the Supreme Court to plummet – especially among Democrats, young voters, Black voters, and women.
Those are the same groups who are most likely to support affirmative action and student loan forgiveness. So while the end of this Supreme Court session brought wins for the ideologically conservative, it may have come at the cost of national confidence in the US justice system.
US President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris during Biden's second State of the Union address.
It's official — Biden is running
US President Joe Biden on Tuesday officially announced he's running for a second term. As was widely expected, he kicked off his reelection bid in a video message on the fourth anniversary of his 2020 campaign launch.
The clip is entitled "Freedom," which Biden says is under threat in America from Republicans who want to undermine democracy, cut entitlement benefits, ban "woke" books, or take away voting rights. The footage is heavy on imagery of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. It also features VP Kamala Harris closely working with Biden — although he mentions neither Harris nor his presumptive rival, former President Donald Trump, by name.
The US president, 80, now ends any remaining speculation that he might change his mind, a shock move that would have opened the field to other Democrats who, like many Americans, are still concerned about Biden’s age. He must now be in campaign mode 24/7 and no longer has the luxury of hiding from the cameras.
Making it official means Biden will soon be able to start fundraising. It also means that whatever he does as president from now on will be viewed through a 2024 campaign lens. Meanwhile, a majority of voters from both parties remain meh on a Biden-Trump rematch, which is still more likely than not.
So c'mon Americans, let's do it all over again!
Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, deputy head of the military council and head of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
What We’re Watching: Worsening clashes in Sudan, Biden’s waiting game, Lavrov’s Latin America tour, a Chinese police station … in NYC
Violence spreads in Sudan
Fighting in Sudan raged on for a fourth day Tuesday, and it’s unclear who is now in control of the country. Many of Khartoum’s 5 million residents are hiding in their homes as street fighting and air raids continue in the capital. So far, more than 1,800 people have been injured, while the death toll is nearing 200.
Who is fighting? Two military factions are vying for control of the oil-rich country that’s been trying to transition to democracy since longtime despot Omar al-Bashir was ousted in 2019. Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since 2021, is facing off against Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the RSF militia. (For more on the rivalry, see here.)
Amid a battle for control of key infrastructure, Khartoum's international airport has been subject to ongoing shelling, while a US diplomatic convoy also came under attack Tuesday. And while the UN, US and regional bodies have called for a truce, both sides have rejected ceasefire calls.
Still, we’re watching to see whether regional heavyweights – including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates – that have a vested interest in the outcome have any luck in getting the two sides to stand down.
What’s Biden waiting for?
Anyone who has paid attention to his comments over the past few weeks knows that Joe Biden is running for reelection. On Friday, as he finished his much-ballyhooed visit to Ireland, he told reporters that, “I told you, my plan is to run again” and that a formal announcement was coming “relatively soon.”
So, what’s the holdup? Will Biden, as some have speculated, announce on April 25, the four-year anniversary of the formal announcement of his 2020 candidacy? Or might he wait longer? By announcing soon, the president would end any remaining speculation that he might change his mind, a shock move that would open the field to other Democrats. It might also help him avoid the suggestion, whispered by some Democrats and shouted by many Republicans, that he’s indecisive or hiding from the cameras.
But by waiting he could keep the media focused a while longer on Donald Trump’s legal problems and on the squabbling among Republicans. Why hurry, some ask, when Biden faces no viable challenge from within his party? It’s his decision to make, of course, and he’ll surely decide soon on how, when, and where to take on the combined roles of president and presidential candidate.
Russian foreign minister visits Latin America
Sergey Lavrov spent Monday in Brasilia, where recently elected President “Lula” Da Silva has already irked Washington by both-sidesing the Ukraine war and refusing to sell weapons to Kyiv.
For Russia, it’s no small thing that one of the world’s largest democracies is at least sympathetic to the Kremlin’s version of the Ukraine story. The fact that Russia exports lots of fertilizer to Brazil’s powerful farm industry probably helps.
Lula, meanwhile, has long sought to carve out a role as a leader of the Global South, where many view the faraway Ukraine war chiefly through the lens of food and energy price inflation and are skeptical of American arguments about defending democracy or the “rules-based order.” Still, he has to tread carefully – osgringos are Brazil’s largest foreign investors and key partners on Lula’s climate change agenda.
While Lavrov thanked Lula for his support, the White House, in a tough rebuke, accused the Brazilian president of "parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda without at all looking at the facts.”
After Brasilia, Lavrov will visit old Kremlin comrades in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. All are countries where US sanctions have enabled Russia to gain significant footholds in energy, arms sales, and general “rogue-state” bonhomie.
But beyond that, Russia lags well behind the region’s two major external players: China and the US. See our GT below for more.
US cracks down on China’s foreign police stations
The US Justice Department on Monday arrested two US nationals of Chinese origin and charged them in connection with allegedly running a secret police station in New York City. Separately, the Feds also accused 34 Chinese cops of using fake social media accounts to harass California-based dissidents. The indictments are part of a wider yearslong DOJ probe into China's efforts to go after ethnic Chinese who are openly critical of Beijing in America.
This is a big deal because it's the first time any criminal charges have been filed against anyone suspected of operating one of China's alleged 100 overseas police stations. Also, the fact that the indictments were handed down in the US will surely shine a brighter spotlight on China's foreign policing shenanigans, putting other countries in a tough spot amid worsening ties between China and the West.
But the charges of conspiring to act as agents for the Chinese government fall short of actual espionage or unlawful detainment on US soil. And making them public might send China the wrong message, encouraging its consulates to do a better job of covering up their foreign police ops, which many fear seek to lure dissidents back to the mainland. Either way, expect a fiery response from Beijing.