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Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit
The White House has a long, storied tradition of hiding the medical issues of the president from the American public. Ronald Reagan’s administration hid signs of his dementia; FDR hid his paralysis for years; Woodrow Wilson spent his last year and a half as president debilitated by a stroke that left him blind in one eye while his wife worked as a “shadow president.”
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer explains why allies worry about the growing concerns around President Biden’s health, fitness for office, and stamina to lead the country for another four years. While there’s no evidence Biden is suffering from a distinct illness like Wilson or FDR, his disastrous debate performance last month made many question his ability to lead the country and the world for a second term.
Trump is now leading Biden in most major polls, but European allies overwhelmingly prefer the old-school, post-WWII institutionalist world order the current administration represents. Trump’s isolationist, “America First” worldview is skeptical of treaties and alliances, which could seriously jeopardize future military assistance to Ukraine, whose fate may very well hinge on the US presidential election.
Watch more on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, in which Poland's Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski discusses the future of NATO under a Biden or Donald Trump presidency, Ukraine's chances against Russia, and Viktor Orbán's rogue moves.
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- NATO has a Trump problem ›
- NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies ›
- Biden and his allies dig in as he delivers forceful NATO speech ›
- Biden’s NATO presser moves things ... sideways ›
- At NATO Summit, Polish FM Radek Sikorski weighs in on Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM - GZERO Media ›
- Why Trump really wanted JD Vance as running mate - GZERO Media ›
U.S. President Joe Biden holds a press conference during NATO's 75th anniversary summit, in Washington, U.S., July 11, 2024.
Biden’s NATO presser moves things ... sideways
Joe Biden’s “big boy” press conference at the end of Thursday’s NATO summit was a high-stakes mixed bag.
The president, facing growing calls to drop his reelection bid over concerns about his age and poor polling, made a few social media-friendly gaffes (he called Kamala Harris his “Vice President Trump” after earlier introducing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “Putin”) but otherwise gave reasonably coherent answers to a range of domestic and foreign policy questions.
Crucially, he insisted repeatedly he would stay in the race, beat Donald Trump, and “finish the job” — but also left open a very thin sliver of possibility that he could step down if his staff showed him that winning was impossible. But “no poll shows that,” he said, contradicting several recent studies.
In all, the performance may dispel some of the gravest concerns about his neurological condition but will likely do little to assuage broader doubts about whether Biden can in fact defeat Trump in November or serve as president until 2028.
Expect further prominent Democrats to call for Biden to step down in the coming days. But the earliest moment at which he would signal any change in his thinking would probably be next week, when an announcement would perfectly upstage Trump’s coronation at the Republican National Convention.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit | GZERO World
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit
Is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán undermining Europe and Western unity following this year’s critical NATO summit? Just days after Hungary’s nationalist leader met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Orbán left the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC to visit former president Donald Trump, a well-known critic of the alliance, at his Mar-A-Lago estate.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to ask how NATO members deal with a renegade ally like Hungary and the challenges posed by Orbán’s coziness with authoritarian rulers. Orbán’s rogue trips are a sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, on full display at the summit, but Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO.
“Orbán is freelancing on behalf of Hungary, and that’s not a new thing,” Sikorski says, “He’s been denying Ukraine transit of defense goods, he’s also been vetoing the release of European money for Ukraine.”
Hungary also has a complicated history when it comes to its international borders, and Sikorski worries about any leader who is willing to redraw a border using force, rather than diplomacy. He says any negotiated settlement in Ukraine should be negotiated by the Ukrainians, and warns that thinking a partitioned Ukraine is inevitable is similar to the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s strategy of appeasing Adolf Hitler in the lead-up to WWII.
“We can win this one,” Sikorski insists, “The Russians have advantage in tanks, but the Ukrainians have advantage in drones.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China tells NATO to butt out
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine. The foreign ministry’s comments come amid increasing cooperation between NATO and US allies in the Pacific, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Washington and its allies accuse China of helping Russia skirt arms controls by shipping so-called “dual use” goods that can be applied in both civilian and military contexts. In turn, China gets access to heavily discounted Russian oil and gas — a desirable asset at any time, but advantageous for China’s economy at a moment when it appears particularly shaky.
At home, however, Beijing has signaled not to expect “strong medicine” to boost the economy at next week’s upcoming Third Party Plenum, scheduled for July 15-18 behind closed doors.
These meetings are closely watched because past leaders have used them to deliver big news. Deng Xiaoping announced the earth-shaking “Opening and Reform” policy, for example, at the 1978 session.
Xi Jinping isn’t expected to announce any major policy shifts, according to experts at Eurasia Group. So we’ll be watching for language intended to boost consumer confidence battered by the roiling debt crisis, but little by way of decisive policy.Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau arrives to the venue on the last day of the NATO Summit in Madrid, Spain on June 30, 2022.
NATO goes all-in on Ukraine, Canada gets a slap on the wrist
At the NATO meeting in Washington this week, President Joe Biden announced a new air defense commitment for Ukraine that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is also in town, has long wanted. Ukraine’s defense against Russia is a central topic on the occasion of the alliance’s 75th anniversary as Putin steps up the Russian war effort.
Despite its own military aid and commitments to Ukraine, which run into the billions, Canada has been getting plenty of attention for its lack of spending. US officials criticize PM Justin Trudeau’s government for failing to meet NATO’s defense-spending target of 2% of GDP – it hit just the 1.38% GDP mark last year.
On X, Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivanposted, “Our NATO allies must do more to meet these dangerous times, particularly our friends in Canada who continue to freeload off this alliance and have yet to even present a real plan to meet the two percent of GDP minimum defense spending commitment all NATO countries agreed to meet.”
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who met with Trudeau this week, also called out Canada, posting that “it’s time for our northern ally to invest seriously in the hard power required to help preserve prosperity and security across NATO.”
Awkward … but maybe effective. On Wednesday, Canada announced plans to procure up to a dozen new submarines and, earlier today, Trudeau announced a plan to raise defense spending to hit NATO’s 2% target by 2032. He also said Ottawa would “continue to explore opportunities that will further increase defense spending, and advance Canada’s strategic interest.”Handout photo shows Left to right: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine) with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Vilnius. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky to the NATO Summit on Wednesday July 12, 2023, ahead of the inaugural meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Ukraine gets a NATO promise, sort of
NATO allies will reportedly announce today that Ukraine’s progress towards joining the organization is “irreversible.” The language will appear in the joint communiqué released by the alliance to conclude its three-day summit in Washington.
But when, precisely, that irreversible momentum will culminate in a NATO membership card for Kyiv is still no clearer now than it was three days ago.
Reports suggest that the allies spent hours hashing out how explicit to make any conditions in the text, but there seem to be two main hurdles: ending the war with Russia, and getting Ukraine’s governing and military institutions up to NATO-level snuff.
Neither of those things will happen anytime soon, which is why NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was clear earlier in the week that Ukraine’s membership is, in fact, still far off.
For Ukraine, then, it’s a mixed bag. A great vote of confidence from the world’s largest military alliance, yes. But no actual deterrent against a Kremlin which will, naturally, view the language as a provocation.
The alliance has, however, redoubled its commitment to helping Ukraine defend itself, announcing a $43 billion aid package, while the US said additional air defenses – as well as the first batch of F-16 fighter jets – were all on their way to Kyiv.
U.S. President Joe Biden gestures, as he and Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda and Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama attend NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, U.S., July 10, 2024.
Will he stay or will he go? The Biden-shaped elephant at NATO
While foreign allies have been respectfully circumspect on the subject during this week’s NATO summit in Washington, President Joe Biden has seen members of his own party increasingly express their doubts about his continued leadership. On Wednesday, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi implied doubt by saying he had a “decision” to make — and George Clooney, a major fundraiser, wrote an op-ed arguing Biden should step aside.
The president has been on a blitz since his performance at the first debate deeply undermined voter confidence in him. After appearing weak and at times confused during his faceoff with Donald Trump, Biden has attempted to change impressions with more energetic rallies and interviews, as well as public statements and letters indicating he is committed to remaining the Democratic nominee. It hasn’t paid off: A steady stream of increasingly senior Democrats have questioned him publicly, including eight members of the House of Representatives, and Sens. Michael Bennet of Colorado and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut. Behind the scenes, there is even more discontent: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is reportedly going to relay privately expressed concerns from his caucus — particularly members in battleground states — to the White House.
Late Wednesday, Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont went a step further than his colleagues: He publicly called on Biden to end his presidential campaign. “For the good of the country,” he wrote in an op-ed for the Washington Post, “I’m calling on President Biden to withdraw from the race.”
And that’s to say nothing of overseas concerns. NATO allies (with the likely exception of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán) are hardly eager to see Trump return given bad memories of his antipathy toward the alliance and fondness for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Biden hopes to reassure them, as well as his domestic critics, with a solo press conference from the summit on Thursday. We’ll be watching to see how he performs and whether it can ease the pressure.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sit in a F-16 fighter jet at Skrydstrup Airbase in Vojens, Denmark, August 20, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine finally getting F-16s, Hooliganism ahead of Euro semifinal, Snake smuggling in China, Rwanda says no refund to the UK
60: NATO countries have started transferring US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, the White House announced on Wednesday. Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium have pledged to provide roughly 60 of the fighter jets to Ukraine amid its war with Russia. Kyiv has been pushing for NATO countries to provide F-16s for well over a year. This first batch is being donated by the Dutch and Danish, though it’s unclear precisely how many are being sent at this time.
5: Hooliganism continues to plague the beautiful game … At least five people were injured in Dortmund, Germany, in clashes between Dutch and English football (soccer) fans ahead of the Euro 2024 semifinal between the two countries on Wednesday. Some of the violence was reportedly linked to Dutch fans attacking English fans in bars and attempting to steal flags.
100: In the immortal words of Indiana Jones, “Snakes … why’d it have to be snakes?” A man attempted to smuggle over 100 live snakes into China by hiding them in his pants but was caught by customs officials. He was apparently traveling with a wide variety of reptiles and packed them into drawstring canvas bags sealed with tape that were discovered in his pockets.
280 million: Rwanda says it’s not refunding the UK for a now-defunct deal for asylum-seekers to be deported to the landlocked African country. The UK provided Rwanda with roughly $280 million as part of the controversial scheme pushed by the prior Conservative government, though no deportations ever occurred, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer says the plan is now dead. The UK on Monday expressed hope it would get some of the funds back, but Rwanda on Wednesday said that wasn’t part of the agreement. “If you come and ask for cooperation and then withdraw, that’s your decision,” said Alain Mukuralinda, a Rwandan government spokesperson, adding, “Good luck.”