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Zohran Mamdani gestures as he speaks during a watch party for his primary election to become the Democratic candidate for New York City mayor on June 25, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Far-left upstart wins NYC mayoral primary, NATO members to boost defense spending, Iran nuclear damage in doubt
Upstart wins mayoral primary in New York
In a stunning political upset with national implications, Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year old Democratic Socialist, won New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, defeating centrist former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. In heavily blue NYC, the Democratic primary winner usually wins the November general election. Mamdani, though, will face a strong backlash from Wall Street power brokers and centrists like current Mayor Eric Adams, who will likely challenge him as an Independent. National-level Dems are closely watching the race. As the party seeks a path back from the wilderness, it faces a widening internal rift between progressives and establishment-oriented centrists.
NATO summit agrees to massive defense spending increases
The 32-member alliance formally agreed to US President Donald Trump’s demand that they boost defense-spending targets from 2% to 5% of GDP, with the goal of achieving this by 2035. Some countries appear to be getting a headstart: Germany pledged a 70% increase in spending by 2029, the United Kingdom is buying jets that can drop nuclear weapons, while Poland wants to get close to the 5% target this year. However, the steep costs could increase pressure on European government budgets, which are renowned for upholding their end of the social contract.
How badly damaged is Iran’s nuclear program?
Four days after US President Donald Trump’s Midnight Hammer struck three key Iranian nuclear facilities, the effects are still unclear. A new US intel report says the mission set back Tehran’s atomic ambitions by only a few months – Trump disputes this. It’s also uncertain what Iran did with the uranium it has already enriched. The stakes are high: if Tehran can in fact revive its program in short order, the US-Israeli assault will be seen as a costly and risky failure.Democratic mayoral candidates Andrew Cuomo, left, shakes hands with Zohran Mamdani, center, as Whitney Tilson reacts after participating in a Democratic mayoral primary debate, on June 4, 2025, in New York City.
How Israel made it onto the ballot in the NYC mayoral race
New York City residents head to the polls today to vote in the Democratic primary election for mayor, and while housing affordability, street safety, and public transit are the key issues motivating voters, another issue has come into the limelight in recent weeks, from nearly 6,000 miles away.
The candidates views’ of Israel have become, if not a decisive factor, a huge flash point in a city that is home to the world’s largest Jewish population outside of Israel, becoming a major topic of discussion at the two televised debates.
The race has now come down to two candidates: Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old Democratic Socialist politician of South Asian descent who once tried to become a rapper, and former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, an establishment centrist who resigned from his previous role after facing accusations of sexual harassment. Other candidates like hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson and New York City Comptroller Brad Lander are still in the running but face long odds – they have endorsed Cuomo and Mamdani, respectively.
The race is on a knife edge. Polls show a surprisingly close race: Most had shown Cuomo ahead, but an Emerson College survey from last week found Mamdani edging out his rival in the final round. In a city that is as heavily Democratic as the Big Apple, the Democratic primary winner will be the firm favorite to win the general election on November 4.
Where do the candidates stand on Israel? Mamdani is an avowed critic. At the first televised debate, he affirmed Israel’s right to exist, but not as a “Jewish state.” He has also defended the use of the controversial call to “Globalize the Intifada,” drawing backlash from several Jewish groups who view it as antisemitic hate speech. But he has also said that he wishes to “meet Jewish New Yorkers where they are” and focus on the issues that they care about in the Big Apple.
“The New York City mayor does not make foreign policy, of course,” Tilson told GZERO Media last week. But Mamdani’s views on Israel, he said, are “absolutely motivating Jewish voters in the city.”
Cuomo, on the other hand, has been wholly supportive of Israel – he’s always seen wearing a yellow ribbon on his lapel in solidarity with Israelis held hostage in Gaza. Yet he has faced criticism, too. Lander, who is Jewish, accused him of “weaponizing antisemitism to score political points.”
How did this become such an issue? New York City is home to 1.4 million Jewish people, accounting for roughly 12% of the city’s population. While Israel is often a higher priority for Jewish voters than others, it’s especially high now among Jewish New Yorkers due to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, the backlash against it at institutions like Columbia University, and the rise of antisemitic violence across the United States.
New York Jewish voters, reflecting the broader community in the US, are hardly a monolith. While support for Israel is generally strong, there is a diversity of opinion about the war in Gaza and the Palestinian cause. That may in part be why a recent poll shows Jewish voters in New York are actually split among the top candidates, Cuomo at 31%, Mamdani at 20%, and Lander, who is Jewish himself, at 18%.
Reality check. Housing affordability and the economy remain the top issue for voters: Three in 10 New Yorkers put housing costs as their top issue, and another two in 10 said it was the economy, per an Emerson College poll from May. Fewer than 1% of voters said their top issue was foreign policy.
Yet Israel specifically remains an issue, one that can’t be captured in the nebulous “foreign policy” bracket, says Tilson, whose wife and daughters are Jewish. What this is really about, he said, is Jewish people’s perception of safety – over three-quarters of all American Jews said they feel less safe in the United States following Hamas’ attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, per an American Jewish Committee report. In New York City, antisemitic attacks increased more than 100% between 2022 and 2023, according to the local offices of the Anti-Defamation League.
“You’re defining it too narrowly by saying foreign policy. It is [about] keeping the Jewish community safe,” said Tilson. “And there has been a dramatic decline in the feeling of [safety among New York Jews].”