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Senegal’s democracy at risk as president calls off election
On Saturday, President Macky Sall called off the election for his replacement without naming a new date, which means he will remain in power extralegally, thrusting the former rock of West African stability into crisis. On Monday, Sall called a special session of Parliament to consider a bill endorsing his decision and allowing a delay of up to six months.
What happened? Karim Wade, son of Sall’s predecessor and a political rival, was running for president but a constitutional court blocked his candidacy last month, alleging he held dual French and Senegalese citizenship. Wade claims he had renounced his French citizenship, and his party launched an investigation into two of the court’s justices last week. Then, in a masterstroke of political judo, Sall backed the investigation – and used it as the excuse to call off the elections.
Will Sall get away with it? The opposition parties rejected the cancellation, and police used tear gas on scattered groups of protesters in Dakar on Sunday, but the mass of civil society did not take to the streets. If elections do go forward – there’s no guarantee – the constitution requires 80 days' notice, and who knows how long the inquiry will take.
On the international stage, the Economic Community of West African States expressed concern but did not condemn the cancellation. ECOWAS has struggled to maintain democratic unity, with military juntas seizing control of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in recent years, all of which announced their withdrawal last week.
ECOWAS “officially” loses three junta-run states
Junta leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have cut ties with their former French colonial overlords and kicked out French troops meant to fight terrorist groups threatening communities in the arid grasslands south of the Sahara Desert. In their place? Russian mercenaries, naturally, who have allegedly been complicit in a spate of atrocities over the last two years.
While the coups have done little to stave off the terrorists (the region suffered thousands of attacks last year), they’ve done a much better job scaring off troops from neighboring democracies. A threatened military intervention in Niger to be led by Nigeria last year amounted to nothing, and no one in the region is eager to put lives on the line now.
ECOWAS isn’t casting itself in the best light. When coup leaders in Niger invited an ECOWAS delegation to talks about the bloc’s sanctions in the capital Niamey on Friday, only Togo showed up. The other delegates said their plane got stuck in Abuja with mechanical issues.
There may be an odd silver lining in the disorganization, though. Since ECOWAS rules require states to file for withdrawal a year in advance, and no one seems to have bothered to put in an official notice, rejoining may not be such a technical hurdle should the political winds shift. We’ll be watching (but not holding our breath) to see whether Mali and Burkina Faso go ahead with elections scheduled for later this year.
Algeria tries to play peacemaker in Niger
Algeria announced that the military junta in Niger has accepted its offer to mediate a return to civilian control. In late August, Algiers proposed a six-month-long transition plan, overseen by a civilian.
Algeria has advantages as a mediator. It has good relations with the United States but opposes French intervention in Africa, which the Nigerien junta has also opposed vociferously. Algiers also condemned the coup and supported ousted President Mohamed Bazoum but has been steadfastly opposed to any military intervention against its southern neighbor.
Countries to Niger’s south and west are under pressure to take action against this coup, the latest in a string of putsches in the region. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who also presides over ECOWAS, a political bloc of West African states, had activated a response force and threatened to attack Niger as a matter of last resort.
The long delay in action betrays ECOWAS’s hesitancy — intervention in Niger is likely to get messy and drag in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso that have pledged to support the junta. But if Algeria can make progress in talks, it gives Tinubu a good argument that the measure of last resort is not yet necessary.
It all might be a little too good to be true. Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, says the situation “sounds pretty similar to previous statements that [Niger] was ready to negotiate with ECOWAS.”
Diplomatic missions by both ECOWAS and US officials have amounted to scant progress in restoring civilian control in Niger. While Algiers is touting this as a path toward a peaceful resolution, Anku says it is not clear that Algeria will be successful.
Talk, not troops, in Niger
West African nations continue to dither on using force in Niger, even after last week’s resolution by the Economic Community of West African States to send in troops to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.
Instead, Nigerian President and ECOWAS Chairman Bola Tinubu is pursuing diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis, including green-lighting a mission to Niger by a delegation of Islamic scholars, who met with coup leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani for several hours on Saturday.
Tchiani is playing up the historic relationship between the neighboring nations, claiming that the coup was “well intended” to avert an imminent threat to both Niger and Nigeria (presumably from jihadists) and that the two countries “were not only neighbors but brothers and sisters who should resolve issues amicably.”
Meanwhile, the Nigeria Labour Congress issued a statement on Sunday warning ECOWAS against the use of military force, claiming that it would cause instability and loss of life in the entire region and endanger the lives of Bazoum and his family.
Bazoum remains under house arrest with his wife and 20-year-old son, reportedly in dire conditions in an unlit basement. The ousted leader said they had gone without electricity for a week, had no access to medication, and that his family was subsisting on dry rice and pasta. While the junta allowed a doctor to visit Saturday and bring some food, Bazoum’s supporters fear the plan is to “starve him to death” and are pleading for Western nations to intervene.
But any such intervention is proving tricky. While France talked tough at the beginning of the coup, on Sunday the French defense minister said his country would support the latest diplomatic efforts by ECOWAS. Rising anti-French and pro-Russian sentiment in Niger is complicating efforts to resolve the crisis, now in its third week with no clear end in sight.
For more on what the US and Russia want for Niger, click here.
Niger deadline passes
The Economic Community of West African States threatened to intervene militarily if Niger’s coup leaders didn’t restore the country’s democratically elected leader, President Mohamed Bazoum, by Sunday. That deadline has now passed without any sign of a military response.
Meanwhile, thousands of supporters of the junta, which now calls itself the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, filled a 30,000-seat stadium in the capital Niamey. They cheered and carried Russian flags and portraits of junta militants, including self-appointed leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani.
Neighboring Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali – notably suspended from ECOWAS owing to recent coups in their countries – side with the new regime, and Burkina Faso and Mali have threatened to respond if Niger is attacked by the bloc.
ECOWAS members, led by Nigeria, support the return of Bazoum but appear unwilling to use military might. On Saturday, the Nigerian Senate rejected a request by President Bola Tinubu to send troops to Niger and called instead for a political solution. Some are also concerned that military intervention would pull the Wagner Group – already entrenched in Mali and Burkina Faso – into the fray. Non-ECOWAS nations Chad and Algeria also oppose military intervention.
For his part, Bazoum has not given up. In an op-ed for the Washington Post, he asked for help from the international community. France has pledged its support for ECOWAS military intervention, and the US has agreed to keep up diplomatic pressure, but we’ll be watching to see how far ECOWAS is willing to go to deliver on its threat.Niger, Niger burning bright
Supporters of Niger’s junta – which overthrew democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum last week – took to the streets of the capital, Niamey, on Sunday, waving Russian flags and denouncing France, its former colonial power. Protesters destroyed a plaque bearing the words “Embassy of France in Niger” and replaced it with Nigerien and Russian flags, while others set the tricolore ablaze.
What got protesters burning mad? Over the weekend, France and the EU joined the US in suspending aid to Niger, demanding that Bazoum be reinstated and order restored. In 2021, France provided 97 million euros in development and military aid, while the EU pledged 40 million euros to help train and equip Niger’s armed forces.
The Elysee was not amused by the demonstrations. French President Emmanuel Macron warned that his government “will not tolerate any attack on France and its interests” and will respond “immediately” to any aggression.
Niger’s neighbors also weighed in, with the 15-member Economic Community of West African States bloc declaring Sunday that it’s prepared to use force to “restore constitutional order” if Bazoum is not reinstated within a week. The eight-member West African Economic and Monetary Union could also suspend Niger from their financial institutions and deny access to the regional central bank and financial markets, putting the screws to the country’s economy.
None of this appears to have fazed coup leader Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, head of Niger’s presidential guard unit, who pushed back, noting the junta’s “firm determination to defend our fatherland.” But on Monday, Bazoum was reportedly seen for the first time since the coup as he met with Chad's leader Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno in Niamey. Déby said he is trying to mediate a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Meanwhile, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin seemed to applaud the coup, much like he cheered on last year’s coup in Burkina Faso. He offered to send his mercenaries to “keep order” – Niger could be big business for Wagner, which is already battling Islamic insurgents in Mali. But it’s also a big opportunity for Putin as Niger produces 7% of the world’s uranium.
The bottom line: The West is concerned that Niger could pivot towards Russia just as both Burkina Faso and Mali did after their own recent coups.
Russia: The “Scumbag” speaks!
Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Monday made his first public comments about the mutiny that mercenary warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin — who had repeatedly called him a “scumbag” — led against him 10 days ago.
In a terse statement that he read from a piece of paper during a broader meeting of military personnel, Shoigu said the mutiny had failed because rank-and-file soldiers had “courageously and selflessly carried out the tasks assigned to them.”
Shoigu’s appearance and statement seem to make clear that Putin isn’t planning on swapping out his Defense Ministry leadership anytime soon. But it’s worth noting — again, as Prigozhin himself did — that Putin's main issue isn’t so much disloyalty as it is incompetence: His war has been poorly planned and clumsily executed from the start, something that Prigozhin made a point of highlighting in ways that are still thorny for the Kremlin.
In other news, the Levada Center on Monday released a poll on Russians’ views of the mutiny. The big winners were the Armed Forces, whose image improved among 30% of Russians, and Putin, who looked better to nearly 20%. Shoigu, meanwhile, took a hit in the eyes of nearly 30% of respondents, second only to Prigozhin, who lost the affection of 36%.
Lastly, there is still no word on the whereabouts of Prigozhin-pal Sergei Surovikin, a top Russian military official known as “General Armageddon.” There were reports late last week that he had been detained, just hours after The New York Times cited US intel officials to the effect that Surovikin was believed to have had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s mutiny attempt.
Hard Numbers: Russian uprising edition – Wagner’s ranks, Ruble tanks, Rostov’s neighbors, Pugachev’s echo
50,000: Wagner Group is believed to have about 50,000 armed men in total. Some of them are hardened combat veterans, but many have been recruited from Russian prisons. Prigozhin has led about half that number in Ukraine and those are the men he took on the march to Moscow.
84: Coups are generally bad for currencies. The ruble fell to a value of 84 per U.S. dollar on Friday, as traders worried that Russia might plunge into civil war. Russian business outlets said major banks were offering an exchange rate of closer to 100 to the dollar.
60: Rostov-on-don is located just 60 miles from the Ukrainian border, and it is home to the Russian southern military district command, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is heavily engaged in trying to stop Kyiv’s counteroffensive in Southern Ukraine.