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Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko listens to the presidential candidate he is backing in the March 24 election, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, as they hold a joint press conference a day after they were released from prison, in Dakar, Senegal March 15, 2024.
Sonko takes the reins in Senegal
Newly inaugurated Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, in his first act in office, appointed his mentor Ousmane Sonko as prime minister on Wednesday. The popular, reform-oriented Sonko will be the driving force behind big changes. Case in point: Faye's manifesto proposed an audit of the oil, gas, and mining sectors, which could bring more cash from natural resource extraction into Dakar’s coffers.
Sonko was banned from running for president in the most recent elections, but Faye subbed in, even using the slogan “Diomaye is Sonko.” Sonko is now calling the shots, says Eurasia Group analyst Tochi Eni-Kalu.
“Faye wasn't really a known political entity prior to his elevation to the PASTEF nomination,” he says, referring to Sonko’s political party. Faye could build a base of power, but Eni-Kalu says “he will likely stick to Sonko’s line, at least in the early stages of his presidency.”
Indeed, Sonko said he would provide a list of ministers for Faye — essentially appointing them himself. And when Senegal holds parliamentary elections, which could happen as soon as later this year, Sonko will be the figurehead voters rally toward.
Once they have a legislative majority, it’s a trickier balancing act to please both voters and investors. Some of Sonko and Faye’s promises raise eyebrows among overseas interests, like the oil and gas audit, but voters are expecting money to flow more widely across society.
“People want change, and Sonko and Faye intend to deliver change,” says Eni-Kalu. “But they’re going to sand down some of their more radical policies to pacify investors.”
Firefighters work at the site where a building collapsed following the earthquake, in Hualien, Taiwan, in this handout provided by Taiwan's National Fire Agency on April 3, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Taiwan earthquake, Ukrainian drone strikes, Sisi’s third term, Exodus from Haiti’s capital, Africa’s youngest elected leader
7.4: A 7.4-magnitude earthquake, followed by several mighty aftershocks, struck Taiwan on Wednesday. The quake killed nine people, injured at least 821, damaged buildings and infrastructure, and triggered mudslides. It was the largest to hit the country in 25 years and was also felt in parts of China.
800: Ukraine on Tuesday carried out drone attacks over 800 miles into Russian territory in the Tatarstan region, striking Russia’s third-largest oil refinery and a drone factory. With the war against its next-door neighbor in its third year, Ukraine has ramped up drone strikes inside Russia.
89.6: President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt on Tuesday was sworn in for a third six-year term after being reelected in December against several unknown candidates who never really stood a chance. Sisi, who has frequently been criticized by rights groups over his authoritarian tendencies, garnered 89.6% of the vote in an election victory he described as a rebuke of the “inhumane war” in Gaza.
53,000: The situation in Haiti is dire. Gang violence has led over 53,000 people to flee the country’s capital, Port-au-Prince, in less than three weeks. The UN warned that most are heading to rural areas that don’t have the infrastructure or resources to deal with a large influx of people.
19: From prison to the presidency… Bassirou Diomaye Faye was sworn in as Senegal’s new president on Tuesday, just 19 days after his release from prison. The 44 year old, who was arrested for alleged defamation last year, is Africa’s youngest democratically elected leader. Faye won the election in a landslide and is promising “systemic change.”
Dakar, Senegal.- In photos taken on March 24, 2024, Bassirou Diomaye Faye (photo), leader of the main opposition party casts his vote during the presidential elections.
Opposition candidate Faye wins Senegal’s presidency in landslide
Preliminary results on Monday showed opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye winning Senegal’s presidential election outright with 53% of the vote. Incumbent party candidate and former Prime Minister Amadou Baconceded to Faye ahead of official results, meaning the country will avoid a runoff vote.
Faye is a close ally of the popular opposition figure Ousmane Sonko, who was barred from standing because of a defamation conviction, but is expected to play a major role in Faye’s administration. Outgoing President Macky Sall delayed elections from their intended February date, in part to buy time to improve his party’s standing against Sonko, but was checked by the country’s Constitutional Council.
Tochi Eni-Kalu, a Eurasia Group analyst, says the delay backfired. “Strong turnout from Sonko's base, anti-establishment sentiment among voters in part driven by the election delay, and the eleventh-hour endorsement from the fellow opposition Senegalese Democratic Party” were what pushed Faye to victory.
Now, Sall will be expected to hand over power when his mandate ends on April 2. If all goes peacefully, it will underline Senegal’s reputation as the most stable democracy in West Africa, and run counter to the trend of military control and weakening democratic institutions from Mali to Niger.
However, Faye’s victory portends changes for Senegal, who like Sonko champions a more nationalist path. We’re watching how Faye approaches foreign relations, particularly with former colonial overlord France, which Sonko has criticized heavily.
FILE PHOTO: A supporter of Senegalese presidential candidate Amadou Ba holds a poster during his campaign rally in Guediawaye on the outskirts of Dakar, Senegal March 10, 2024.
Election delay fuels close contest in Senegal
Voters in Senegal face a choice between continuity or a new direction for West Africa’s most stable democracy as they head to the polls Sunday.
The country’s reputation for fair and peaceful transitions of power looked like it was at risk last month when President Macky Sall called for a 10-month delay of elections scheduled for Feb. 25. The move was an attempt to buy time to bolster support for his party and its candidate, Amadou Ba, but it backfired, according to Eurasia Group analyst Tochi Eni-Kalu.
"The Constitutional Council pushed back against proposals to delay the election beyond the end of Sall's mandate on 2 April, leaving him with no choice but to accept their rulings in the face of opposition and public pressure" he says.
Opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye is now riding a wave of momentum thanks to anger over the delay, but it likely won’t be enough to get him over the 50% mark he needs to win outright. If Ba also falls short, they go to a runoff, and that’s where it gets interesting. Unlike other close elections in Senegal, in 2000 and 2012, the opposition isn’t necessarily unified against the incumbent.
“The key thing to watch is how the other big fish align,” says Eni-Kalu.
If Ba and his BBY party remain in power, Eni-Kalu expects broad continuity with Sall’s administration. A Faye victory could see Senegal take on a more nationalist tack, though it’s not clear how far he can push the most radical proposals, like leaving the CFA Franc currency union.
Senegal’s democracy at risk as president calls off election
On Saturday, President Macky Sall called off the election for his replacement without naming a new date, which means he will remain in power extralegally, thrusting the former rock of West African stability into crisis. On Monday, Sall called a special session of Parliament to consider a bill endorsing his decision and allowing a delay of up to six months.
What happened? Karim Wade, son of Sall’s predecessor and a political rival, was running for president but a constitutional court blocked his candidacy last month, alleging he held dual French and Senegalese citizenship. Wade claims he had renounced his French citizenship, and his party launched an investigation into two of the court’s justices last week. Then, in a masterstroke of political judo, Sall backed the investigation – and used it as the excuse to call off the elections.
Will Sall get away with it? The opposition parties rejected the cancellation, and police used tear gas on scattered groups of protesters in Dakar on Sunday, but the mass of civil society did not take to the streets. If elections do go forward – there’s no guarantee – the constitution requires 80 days' notice, and who knows how long the inquiry will take.
On the international stage, the Economic Community of West African States expressed concern but did not condemn the cancellation. ECOWAS has struggled to maintain democratic unity, with military juntas seizing control of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in recent years, all of which announced their withdrawal last week.
Dozens of people in a cayuco on their arrival at the dock of La Restinga, on November 4, 2023, in El Hierro, Canary Islands (Spain).
Hard Numbers: Senegalese youth leave home, Election officials leave their jobs, Jews leave France, workers (may) leave Vegas casinos
32,095: In a record-breaking wave of migration, figures from Spanish authorities show over 32,000 undocumented migrants — mostly from Senegal — have landed on the Canary Islands this year. Senegal was once a bastion of democratic stability, but President Macky Sall’s bitter struggles with an opposition popular among the country’s young people have convinced them to seek brighter futures overseas.
40: About 40% of chief county election officials in 11 western US states have left their positions since November 2020, according to research from Issue One. The study found the high turnover was linked to threats of violence in the wake of the 2020 election.
50: The Jewish Agency, an organization that helps Jews migrate to Israel in a process called aliyah said applications from France have risen 50% since the war with Hamas broke out on Oct. 7, while applications from North America rose 40% (with Canada climbing 64%). The agency’s director attributed the increase in applications to spiking antisemitic displays and attacks.
35,000: In another major labor action, 35,000 Culinary and Bartenders Union members in Las Vegas could walk off the job if three major casino conglomerates don’t reach an agreement on their contract by Nov. 10. The strike would be the largest hospitality strike in history and could scuttle the return of Formula 1 racing to Los Vegas after more than 40 years.Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko speaks during a news conference in Dakar.
Senegalese opposition leader sentenced, 2024 bid in peril
On Thursday, at least nine people were killed in Senegal in violence that erupted after opposition leader Ousmane Sonko was sentenced in absentia to two years in jail for "corrupting youth" by encouraging the debauchery of an underage massage parlor employee – whom he was simultaneously acquitted of raping and issuing death threats against. This is a very big deal since it might bar Sonko from running for president of the West African nation in February 2024, and it’s unclear whether he can appeal.
Sonko, a popular former tax inspector and mayor, is being held in contempt of court after he ghosted the trial out of fear for his security. Under Senegalese law, that means the opposition leader — whose whereabouts are unknown — can’t appeal, although he can get a retrial ... if he's arrested or turns himself in. What's more, Sonko is contesting a separate six-month suspended prison sentence for defaming the minister of tourism, whom he accused of embezzlement.
For weeks, Sonko's diehard fans have been protesting the trial in Dakar, the capital, because they say he’s being unfairly targeted by his nemesis, President Macky Sall. Expect trouble if Sonko gets disqualified from the presidential race, especially if Sall falls for Africa’s third-term curse: running again despite being constitutionally limited to two terms in office.
"Significant unrest is likely given the fervor of Sonko's supporters," says Eurasia Group analyst Jeanne Ramier. "But it won't be as serious as the violence that followed his indictment in March 2021 — the police are now ready for such large demonstrations and religious leaders will intervene to stop any bloodshed."World Cup politics go way beyond Qatar
The 2022 World Cup now underway in Qatar is the most political edition of the tournament in decades. But it's also playing out politically far away from the host country in parts of the globe where fans often pay more attention to the sport than to their elected officials.
For instance, in Brazil, supporters of left-wing President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva want to reclaim the yellow jersey from the fans of outgoing far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Brazilian progressives say Bolsonaro’s supporters co-opted the color of their five-time winning national side during the recent presidential election campaign.
Let’s find more examples from a few Eurasia Group soccer nuts, ahem, experts.
South America. Argentina has the best odds to go all the way in Qatar along with Brazil. It also has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, expected to top 100% by the end of the year (and you thought 8% in the US was bad!).
"Naturally, Argentines are not happy about their rapidly declining purchasing power, and they’re ready to kick President Alberto Fernández to the curb," says global macro analyst Sebastian Strauss. “Yet instead of fighting tooth and nail to tame inflation and hold onto power, the government is betting the house on a rather more unconventional way to make voters happy: winning the World Cup."
When asked to pick between victory and reining in inflation, Minister of Labor Kelly Olmos did not hesitate. One month won't really matter, and she can get around to inflation later — after the Albiceleste brings home the trophy. But if that happens, Strauss says, "it’ll be thanks to Leo Messi and company’s heroics in Qatar — not to Fernández and his posse watching in Buenos Aires.”
“Alas, they may still be rewarded for it," he adds. (Argentina’s next presidential election is in exactly one year.)
Africa. After winning the African Cup of Nations in January for the first time, Senegal was looking good to go far in Qatar. But national optimism has been dampened by Ballon d'Or runner-up and national hero Sadio Mané having to stay home due to a last-minute injury. Still, the team is stacked with stars playing in Europe — especially Chelsea full-back Kalidou Koulibaly and tireless Everton midfielder Idrissa Gueye.
What's more, ahead of the presidential election in 2024, the performance of the Teranga Lions may be of political significance, says Africa analyst Tochi Eni-Kalu.
"The ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition has lost voter support over the last 18 months, so officials are hoping that a deep run in the tournament will indirectly boost domestic perceptions of their stewardship, particularly as President Macky Sall continues to mull an unconstitutional third-term bid," End-Kalu explains. "Unfortunately for Sall, recent history suggests that a potential [approval] rating bump will be short-lived at best.”
Indeed, he adds, the wild celebrations in February did not prevent the ruling coalition from losing its parliamentary majority a few months later: "Food for thought."
Europe. If you're a Serbia fan, the last thing you want is for this World Cup to get political again, says Matejic Strahinja from the office of the president. He has bitter memories of Russia 2018: Serbia lost to Switzerland with goals by two players originally from Kosovo who celebrated by flapping the double eagle from the Albanian flag to taunt Serbia, which fought a bitter war in Kosovo and refuses to recognize its independence.
In Qatar 2022, Strahinja looks forward to ditching the bitter Belgrade club rivalry between Red Star and Partizan to support Serbia as one.
"Support for one or the other runs in families, while neighborhoods or entire cities are split across fan club lines. However, one event stops all of that and unites Serbian fans every so often," he adds. "The World Cup is when these divisions turn into collective energy [behind supporting] the national team with the hopes that this time around, the guys might at least advance to the knockout stage.”
That is … until striker Alexsandar Mitrović misses a clear opportunity. After all, Strahinja — a Red Star diehard supporter — points out, “he used to play for Partizan."
Middle East & North Africa. “There’s a lot of excitement and buzz in the region over the first World Cup hosted by an Arab country, despite human rights issues in Qatar having become a focal point," says MENA analyst Sofia Meranto.
The emirate is using its hosting of the tournament to project regional soft power, with Qatari sports channel BeIN Sports broadcasting all matches for free. More broadly, she adds, the World Cup is “helping cement Qatar’s standing" in the region, where less than two years ago it was still under a blockade by four neighboring countries. This week, the opening ceremony was attended by the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE. And in another first, the Qataris even allowed flights to bring in Israeli fans.
Meranto says to watch out for the Saudis, who "are probably eyeing closely what’s happening in Qatar as they’re hoping to host the World Cup in 2030, possibly with Egypt and Greece."This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.