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Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel over the Israeli Lebanese border, as seen from northern Israel, April 12, 2024.
Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”Zelensky, Putin, Macron
From dove to hawk: Explaining Macron’s Russia-Ukraine journey
French President Emmanuel Macron has been on quite the journey over the past two years.
In the days leading up to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fateful decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022, Macron took on the role of chief peacemaker in a bid to avert conflict. Once the war began, he cautioned against Russia’s humiliation, offered Putin countless off-ramps, and pressed Ukraine to engage in peace talks. Fast forward to today, though, and Macron has become arguably the transatlantic alliance’s leading Russia hawk, even going as far as openly discussing the prospect of deploying French troops to Ukraine’s front lines.
What caused such a remarkable transformation? French officials close to the president claim that as the facts on the ground changed, so did Macron's strategic thinking. But as my Eurasia Group colleague Mujtaba Rahman teased last week, that explanation doesn’t fully hold up. Let’s see why.
Macron's shuttle diplomacy began with the widely publicized “long-table talks” in Moscow on Feb. 7, 2022, when Putin agreed to refrain from invading Ukraine in exchange for “security guarantees.” Then, on Feb. 20, the two leaders spoke on the phone, and Macron went to sleep believing he had convinced Putin to consider peace talks with US President Joe Biden. The rest is history: Putin reneged on both promises, and on Feb. 24, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Macron’s critics dismiss those early talks as futile, arguing the president was never in a position to deter a Putin hellbent on achieving his imperial dreams (fact check: true).
Macron’s thinking, however, was – and still is – that engagement was justified despite having little chance of success. Otherwise, the Kremlin could have claimed that the West was uninterested in diplomacy and had left it with no choice but war. Trying was valuable insofar as it allowed the West to retain the moral and narrative high ground … whatever that turned out to be worth.
A few months later, in May, Macron gave a speech at the European Parliament where he called on the West not to “humiliate” Russia. This was no slip of the tongue; he reiterated the position a month later in an interview with the French media when he said that helping Putin save face was necessary “so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means.”
The statements drew ire from Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic States, outraged by calls to give in to an invader that was mercilessly shelling civilians amid then-fresh revelations of war crimes in Bucha and elsewhere.
What was Macron thinking then? At the time, the French leader believed that Russia was going to lose the war – even if at that particular moment it was winning the battle. He was under the impression that Putin knew this and was accordingly open to diplomacy. The hope was that by keeping him onside, Macron could eventually broker a peace deal that would both preserve Kyiv’s interests and pave the way for a new, more “strategic” European security architecture – one where Europe would finally take its future into its own hands and be less dependent militarily on the United States.
But that illusion would not last long.
In the weeks that followed, a series of phone calls with Putin led Macron to the realization that the Russian president had been making a fool out of him all along, hardening the president’s attitude toward Moscow. It was a rude awakening, but the facts didn’t change on him – Macron just caught up to them.
As this reality dawned, Macron’s strategic focus shifted to Eastern European countries, whose support he realized was key to keeping his dream of a “strategic Europe” alive. The problem was that France had historically had tepid relations with this part of the world, starting with Paris’ reluctance to embrace eastern enlargement after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. Macron’s direct diplomacy with Putin in 2022 had only made things worse. Ties needed mending, and these countries needed convincing that the European Union could replace the United States as the guarantor of European security – especially in light of Germany’s increasingly apparent geopolitical timidity and the growing odds of a Trump 2.0 pullback from NATO scenario.
So Macron went to work. At the GLOBSEC security conference in Bratislava in June 2023, the French president called for Russia's outright “defeat” for the first time, after previously speaking only of “preventing a Russian victory.” He also apologized to Eastern European countries for “missing an opportunity” to heed their concerns about Russia’s imperial ambitions, pleaded for a European defense pillar within NATO in the face of Washington’s wavering commitment to the transatlantic alliance, and – crucially – opened the door to possible Ukrainian NATO membership.
The Bratislava remarks were made at a time when the West was cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could reprise the success of its 2022 counteroffensive. The military and political outlook has since darkened for Kyiv. And Macron has grown anxious that – far from bolstering European security, unity, and democracy – the war may end in a Russian victory, which would discredit the European Union and destroy its economy. This concern is what prompted the president to publicly weigh the possibility of deploying French and other NATO troops to Ukraine for the first time in late February, when he replied to a journalist’s question about potential Western troop deployments by saying that “nothing should be ruled out” because “Russia cannot [be allowed] to win this war.”
While French ministers have claimed that he was referring only to support troops and not frontline fighters, Macron has refused to accept that distinction. Indeed, despite earning strong rebukes from the US, Germany, and the United Kingdom, he doubled down recently when he said he would not “initiate” such an escalation but it might become necessary.
So what is Macron trying to achieve now? The first-order reasoning is that he wants to create “strategic ambiguity” – in other words, keep Putin guessing about his intentions to deter further aggression and persuade him to back off Ukraine. But the president also wants to prepare French and Western public opinion for the difficult decisions that may lie ahead in the event that such deterrence fails.
Beyond strategic considerations, there is the question of what role Macron’s ambitions have played in his rhetorical escalation. The French president is often accused of wanting to seize the “leadership” of the European Union, but with just three years remaining in office, he is probably thinking more about legacy than leadership now. And Macron's legacy stakes are certainly high. In 2017, he promised to leave France and the EU stronger than he found them. Seven years later, he faces the rising tides of far-right nationalism and the possibility that a Russian victory in Ukraine could destroy the credibility of the union.
Macron realizes that his ambition of a more “strategic Europe” is a long-term project requiring strong backing from the United Kingdom and Germany. But he is also aware that Berlin is unwilling to face up to this new geostrategic landscape in which cheap Russian gas and unconditional US protection are no longer guaranteed. He is therefore hoping that his “boots on the ground” rhetoric can force Europe to confront existential questions about the continent’s security destiny that leaders like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz would prefer to avoid.
Whether his new position ultimately helps or hurts Ukraine remains to be seen. It’s also unclear whether the French leader will finally put his money where his mouth is. After all, France has been a laggard when it comes to arming Ukraine. But one thing is for sure – the Russia dove of 2022 is now one of the West’s most implacable hawks. Putin no longer has an open line to Emmanuel Macron.
FILE PHOTO: Vasiliki Kostoula, a Greek breast cancer patient, listens to her doctor after a radiological medical examination in an Athens hospital October 29, 2008.
Hard Numbers: Tax hacks, Breast cancer, Google dinged, AI job risk
294,138: The Internal Revenue Service received 294,138 complaints of identity theft in 2023 and flagged more than 1 million tax returns as potentially fraudulent. AI is set to supercharge tax fraud this season, letting malicious actors more easily impersonate people and obtain sensitive information needed to file fake tax returns in their name.
250 million: The French competition authority fined Google €250 million ($270 million) for failing to notify news publishers in the country that it was training its large language models on their articles. Google has already been forced to pay publishers in Australia and Canada to license their content, and the thorny question of AI training ushers in a whole new squabble for the internet giant.
10: According to a new US government estimate, 10 percent of workers are at high risk of being displaced by artificial intelligence. The findings, from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, show that the highest-risk individuals also are the ones with lowest levels of education and income—a reality that could further disadvantage many struggling Americans.Marine Le Pen
Le Pen looks to put the sword to Macron
With just three months until the European Parliament elections, France’s far-right leader Marine Le Penopened her campaign on Sunday with a commanding lead over her main rivals.
The Rassemblement National party’s pledge to claw back sovereignty from Brussels bureaucrats has garnered the support of 30% of voters. Meanwhile, the centrist coalition of current President Emmanuel Macron, who has called for the EU to bolster its global role, trails RN by a distant 12 points, according to recent polls.
The right-populist RN has profited from broader French misgivings about immigration as well as the recent massive protests by farmers who are angry about EU climate regulations that entail removing subsidies and other benefits from the agriculture sector.
RN’s performance this summer will be a bellwether of broader trends in Europe, where nationalist parties have been rising again. But it will also frame expectations about the 2027 French presidential election, where Le Pen is hoping her fourth run for France’s top job will be the charm.
Macron, who will launch his own EU parliament campaign later this week, recently tapped 34-year old Gabriel Attal as PM in a move widely seen as an effort to close the gap with the RN.
Sending NATO troops to Ukraine unlikely despite Macron's remarks
Are Western troops likely to end up on the ground in Ukraine?
If Western troops we mean NATO troops, I think it is very, very unlikely indeed. All this is a big flap in response to a question the French President, Emmanuel Macron, said it wasn't off the table, something needed to be thought about. The German chancellor almost immediately clapped Macron back. Didn't really need to do that. You already had the NATO secretary general, others saying more needs to be done to support the Ukrainians, more economic support, more military support, need to get the Americans to tee up for 2024. Most of NATO is all there. But of course, Macron, when he gets frustrated, he gets flustered. He likes to make a name. He likes to make headlines. Got a little trouble for that. It was a bit of an own goal. We've seen that before. But I don't think there's actually that much news being made.
How might Sweden's entry into NATO reshape defense policies and military partnerships in the region?
Well, let's keep in mind that unlike countries like Finland and Poland and the Baltics, which are front line NATO countries vis a vis Russia, Sweden is not. That's one of the reasons why their total defense spend was something like 1.2% of GDP. They will ramp that up significantly. They will reach 2% quickly and not that hard for them to do. They're small economy and very wealthy now that they are finally joining NATO. They also are very good in terms of military equipment. They have a significant defense industry and they export a lot of it. They work closely with NATO allies. So in that regard, they'll be quite significant. I think they matter. But, you know, again, it's a small country. It's really the symbolic fact that the NATO is expanding and continuing to expand because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Is Saudi Arabia poised to assist Zelensky in advancing his peace plan?
Well, the Saudis did host the most successful one of the most widely attended peace meetings for Ukraine so far. The Russians weren't there, but the Chinese were, as opposed to the meeting that just occurred in Switzerland a little over a month ago. They've also helped to facilitate transfers of POWs between the Russians and Ukrainians. That's very far from saying that we have diplomacy that's going to work, especially because Putin sees no reason. He thinks he's doing well right now and he can't wait to see what happens in the US elections in November. So I don't think there's much going on. But the Saudis certainly want to show that they want to be useful. And it's not just there. It's of course also in their own backyard. They get a lot of money, a lot of leadership. They are leading the GCC. It's a country everybody needs to pay attention to. Certainly very far from where they were a few years ago.
Women take part in a ritual event of naked festival, for the first time in its 1250 years of history, at Owari Okunitama Shrine, also known as Konomiya Shrine, in Inazawa, Aichi Prefecture, central Japan February 22, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Japanese women go to naked party, Australian fires rage, French farmers fume, and Zambian creditors get paid.
1250:Washoi! Women crashed the party at Japan's 1250-year-old Naked Festival, a traditionally all-male event designed to drive out evil spirits. While they didn’t actually bare all, the first-ever female participants successfully trampled gender norms while ensuring that the festival continues as Japan’s population ages.
2000: Wildfires have forced more than 2,000 people to flee towns in western Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged all necessary assistance to combat the blazes, which are being exacerbated by an El Niño weather pattern known to fuel fires, cyclones and droughts.
1 : Angry French farmers delayed the opening of a major Paris farm fair by one hour, protesting costs, bureaucracy, and environmental regulations. Amid calls for his resignation, President Emmanuel Macron promised to meet with union representatives and stakeholders. European governments are concerned that the farm lobby could feed gains by the far right in European Parliament elections this June.
13 billion: Zambia’s 13bn mountain of debt is a little lighter today, thanks to deals struck with creditors China and India. It’s welcome news as the African nation contends with past defaults, depreciation of the kwacha, a revival of inflation, and a drought that was “one of the worst in living memory.” Zambia now plans to resume talks with private creditors and is back on track for a 1.3 billion bailout by the IMF.Markus Söder, the prime minister of Bavaria, welcomes US Vice President Kamala Harris at Munich Airport as a guest of the Munich Security Conference.
Powerful guests, packed agenda in Munich
The 60th Munich Security Conference is underway as world leaders gather in Germany to discuss diplomatic and military strategy.
US Vice President Kamala Harris will reaffirm Biden’s support for NATO after Donald Trumpthreatened to not protect members who fail to pay their dues. Recently impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who may symbolize US dysfunction to allies, will also be on hand.
With the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion looming, debates on the level of continued support for Ukraine will demand attention. Russia was not invited to attend, but President Volodymyr Zelensky will be there to woo allies. He’ll also stop in Paris to sign a security agreement with President Emmanuel Macron for long-term aid, including support for reconstruction and military assistance, but it is expected to stop short of a pledge to send weapons. Zelensky will also meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, will advocate for a multipolar world before traveling to Spain and France for bilateral meetings.
Israel is sending President Isaac Herzog and three rescued hostages. Herzog is planning a series of cease-fire talks and will face questions about Israel’s attack on a main hospital in Gaza on Thursday amid growing concern for civilians’ safety.
Here are 4 things you need to know about the MSC. Don’t forget to RSVP to GZERO’s Protecting elections in the Age of AI event, live streaming from Munich on Saturday!Halime Adam Moussa, a Sudanese refugee who is seeking refuge in Chad for a second time, waits with other refugees to receive a food portion from an international aid agency near the border between Sudan and Chad in Koufroun, Chad, May 9, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Children starving in Sudan, Israel’s credit downgraded, Two tales of Chinese balloons, Chiefs win Super Bowl, Senate advances aid bill
2: Moody’s bond rating agency on Friday announced a first-ever downgrade of Israel's credit rating from A1 to A2, due to the negative economic impacts of the Gaza war and the potential conflict with Hezbollah. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich dismissed it as “a political manifesto,” but if other major agencies follow suit, it would make it harder for Israel to sell bonds, impacting its war effort and post-war recovery.
700,000: UNICEF reports that 700,000 children in Sudan face malnutrition due to the 10-month conflict that has ravaged the country, with tens of thousands at risk of death from lack of food, mass displacement, and disease. The agency is calling for $840 million in assistance and lamented the fact previous requests for aid have not been met.
8: Taiwan's defense ministry reported that eight Chinese balloons crossed the Taiwan Strait Friday and five sailed over the island on Saturday. China has previously claimed such balloons were for “meteorological purposes,”, not surveillance, but Taipei accuses them of being a threat to aviation safety and a form of “psychological warfare.” China’s balloon activity has increased since the election of pro-independence President Lai Ching-Te.
38,000: In more high-flying news, a Hong Kong mall's dragon sculpture, crafted from a hoard of 38,000 balloons, roared into the Guinness Book of World Records just in time for this year’s Chinese New Year celebrations. The 137.04-feet-long masterpiece was assembled by balloon artists Sze Tai "Wilson" Pang and Kun Lung Ho and over 60 volunteers.
3: The Kansas City Chiefs won their third Super Bowl in five years on Sunday night, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22. It was a nail-biter of a game – and just the second Super Bowl in history to go into overtime. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw the game-winning touchdown pass to receiver Mecole Hardman after the 49ers gained a short-lived lead off of a field goal.
18: The Democratic-controlled Senate on Sunday moved closer to passing a $95.3 billion foreign aid bill that includes assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan – voting 67-27 to clear a procedural hurdle and advance the legislation. Eighteen Senate Republicans voted to advance the bill despite vocal opposition from Donald Trump, who recently helped tank a bipartisan bill that lumped foreign aid and border security together. Though the foreign aid bill could pass in the Senate within days, it faces an uphill battle in the Republican-controlled House.