We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Le Pen looks to put the sword to Macron
With just three months until the European Parliament elections, France’s far-right leader Marine Le Penopened her campaign on Sunday with a commanding lead over her main rivals.
The Rassemblement National party’s pledge to claw back sovereignty from Brussels bureaucrats has garnered the support of 30% of voters. Meanwhile, the centrist coalition of current President Emmanuel Macron, who has called for the EU to bolster its global role, trails RN by a distant 12 points, according to recent polls.
The right-populist RN has profited from broader French misgivings about immigration as well as the recent massive protests by farmers who are angry about EU climate regulations that entail removing subsidies and other benefits from the agriculture sector.
RN’s performance this summer will be a bellwether of broader trends in Europe, where nationalist parties have been rising again. But it will also frame expectations about the 2027 French presidential election, where Le Pen is hoping her fourth run for France’s top job will be the charm.
Macron, who will launch his own EU parliament campaign later this week, recently tapped 34-year old Gabriel Attal as PM in a move widely seen as an effort to close the gap with the RN.
Sending NATO troops to Ukraine unlikely despite Macron's remarks
Are Western troops likely to end up on the ground in Ukraine?
If Western troops we mean NATO troops, I think it is very, very unlikely indeed. All this is a big flap in response to a question the French President, Emmanuel Macron, said it wasn't off the table, something needed to be thought about. The German chancellor almost immediately clapped Macron back. Didn't really need to do that. You already had the NATO secretary general, others saying more needs to be done to support the Ukrainians, more economic support, more military support, need to get the Americans to tee up for 2024. Most of NATO is all there. But of course, Macron, when he gets frustrated, he gets flustered. He likes to make a name. He likes to make headlines. Got a little trouble for that. It was a bit of an own goal. We've seen that before. But I don't think there's actually that much news being made.
How might Sweden's entry into NATO reshape defense policies and military partnerships in the region?
Well, let's keep in mind that unlike countries like Finland and Poland and the Baltics, which are front line NATO countries vis a vis Russia, Sweden is not. That's one of the reasons why their total defense spend was something like 1.2% of GDP. They will ramp that up significantly. They will reach 2% quickly and not that hard for them to do. They're small economy and very wealthy now that they are finally joining NATO. They also are very good in terms of military equipment. They have a significant defense industry and they export a lot of it. They work closely with NATO allies. So in that regard, they'll be quite significant. I think they matter. But, you know, again, it's a small country. It's really the symbolic fact that the NATO is expanding and continuing to expand because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Is Saudi Arabia poised to assist Zelensky in advancing his peace plan?
Well, the Saudis did host the most successful one of the most widely attended peace meetings for Ukraine so far. The Russians weren't there, but the Chinese were, as opposed to the meeting that just occurred in Switzerland a little over a month ago. They've also helped to facilitate transfers of POWs between the Russians and Ukrainians. That's very far from saying that we have diplomacy that's going to work, especially because Putin sees no reason. He thinks he's doing well right now and he can't wait to see what happens in the US elections in November. So I don't think there's much going on. But the Saudis certainly want to show that they want to be useful. And it's not just there. It's of course also in their own backyard. They get a lot of money, a lot of leadership. They are leading the GCC. It's a country everybody needs to pay attention to. Certainly very far from where they were a few years ago.
Hard Numbers: Japanese women go to naked party, Australian fires rage, French farmers fume, and Zambian creditors get paid.
1250:Washoi! Women crashed the party at Japan's 1250-year-old Naked Festival, a traditionally all-male event designed to drive out evil spirits. While they didn’t actually bare all, the first-ever female participants successfully trampled gender norms while ensuring that the festival continues as Japan’s population ages.
2000: Wildfires have forced more than 2,000 people to flee towns in western Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged all necessary assistance to combat the blazes, which are being exacerbated by an El Niño weather pattern known to fuel fires, cyclones and droughts.
1 : Angry French farmers delayed the opening of a major Paris farm fair by one hour, protesting costs, bureaucracy, and environmental regulations. Amid calls for his resignation, President Emmanuel Macron promised to meet with union representatives and stakeholders. European governments are concerned that the farm lobby could feed gains by the far right in European Parliament elections this June.
13 billion: Zambia’s 13bn mountain of debt is a little lighter today, thanks to deals struck with creditors China and India. It’s welcome news as the African nation contends with past defaults, depreciation of the kwacha, a revival of inflation, and a drought that was “one of the worst in living memory.” Zambia now plans to resume talks with private creditors and is back on track for a 1.3 billion bailout by the IMF.Powerful guests, packed agenda in Munich
The 60th Munich Security Conference is underway as world leaders gather in Germany to discuss diplomatic and military strategy.
US Vice President Kamala Harris will reaffirm Biden’s support for NATO after Donald Trumpthreatened to not protect members who fail to pay their dues. Recently impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who may symbolize US dysfunction to allies, will also be on hand.
With the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion looming, debates on the level of continued support for Ukraine will demand attention. Russia was not invited to attend, but President Volodymyr Zelensky will be there to woo allies. He’ll also stop in Paris to sign a security agreement with President Emmanuel Macron for long-term aid, including support for reconstruction and military assistance, but it is expected to stop short of a pledge to send weapons. Zelensky will also meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, will advocate for a multipolar world before traveling to Spain and France for bilateral meetings.
Israel is sending President Isaac Herzog and three rescued hostages. Herzog is planning a series of cease-fire talks and will face questions about Israel’s attack on a main hospital in Gaza on Thursday amid growing concern for civilians’ safety.
Here are 4 things you need to know about the MSC. Don’t forget to RSVP to GZERO’s Protecting elections in the Age of AI event, live streaming from Munich on Saturday!Hard Numbers: Children starving in Sudan, Israel’s credit downgraded, Two tales of Chinese balloons, Chiefs win Super Bowl, Senate advances aid bill
2: Moody’s bond rating agency on Friday announced a first-ever downgrade of Israel's credit rating from A1 to A2, due to the negative economic impacts of the Gaza war and the potential conflict with Hezbollah. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich dismissed it as “a political manifesto,” but if other major agencies follow suit, it would make it harder for Israel to sell bonds, impacting its war effort and post-war recovery.
700,000: UNICEF reports that 700,000 children in Sudan face malnutrition due to the 10-month conflict that has ravaged the country, with tens of thousands at risk of death from lack of food, mass displacement, and disease. The agency is calling for $840 million in assistance and lamented the fact previous requests for aid have not been met.
8: Taiwan's defense ministry reported that eight Chinese balloons crossed the Taiwan Strait Friday and five sailed over the island on Saturday. China has previously claimed such balloons were for “meteorological purposes,”, not surveillance, but Taipei accuses them of being a threat to aviation safety and a form of “psychological warfare.” China’s balloon activity has increased since the election of pro-independence President Lai Ching-Te.
38,000: In more high-flying news, a Hong Kong mall's dragon sculpture, crafted from a hoard of 38,000 balloons, roared into the Guinness Book of World Records just in time for this year’s Chinese New Year celebrations. The 137.04-feet-long masterpiece was assembled by balloon artists Sze Tai "Wilson" Pang and Kun Lung Ho and over 60 volunteers.
3: The Kansas City Chiefs won their third Super Bowl in five years on Sunday night, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22. It was a nail-biter of a game – and just the second Super Bowl in history to go into overtime. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw the game-winning touchdown pass to receiver Mecole Hardman after the 49ers gained a short-lived lead off of a field goal.
18: The Democratic-controlled Senate on Sunday moved closer to passing a $95.3 billion foreign aid bill that includes assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan – voting 67-27 to clear a procedural hurdle and advance the legislation. Eighteen Senate Republicans voted to advance the bill despite vocal opposition from Donald Trump, who recently helped tank a bipartisan bill that lumped foreign aid and border security together. Though the foreign aid bill could pass in the Senate within days, it faces an uphill battle in the Republican-controlled House.Brussels bows to farmers on green goals
On Tuesday, the European Commission scrapped a plan to limit pesticide use and excluded agriculture from its roadmap to cut greenhouse gasses as the ruling coalition attempts to quell bloc-wide protests by farmers.
The concessions follow pledges last week to reduce the burden of environmental policy on farmers after protests erupted in France, Belgium, Germany, and other countries last month. Farmers say they can’t get a decent price for their produce thanks to strict environmental regulations, competition from cheap Ukrainian imports, and insufficient government support.
The EU did limit Ukrainian imports last week and loosened rules on how much land farmers have to leave fallow, but no dice. The protests only grew with farmers in Italy, Spain, Bulgaria, and Greece all turning out on Monday and Tuesday.
Why is Brussels being flexible? European parliamentary elections are looming in June, and the ruling centrist coalition is sweating the populist surge on the continent.
Knowing they need to keep farmers on their side to retain power, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged last week to rethink a series of climate-related laws.Hard Numbers: Facebook turns 20, DeSantis’ vote cost, Eurozone inflation falls, Dark money Down Under, Paris’ Grape Escape
20: On Sunday, Facebook turns 20 years old. Take a moment to look back at the social network’s early days – when it was a platform for dorky teens playfully “poking” each other. That was before the Obama 2008 campaign demonstrated its political utility, before young Egyptians showed dictators its threat to their power in 2011, and long before the site became a dumpster fire of Boomer conspiracy theories. And as for the teens? On Wednesday, CEO Mark Zuckerberg apologized to families who had been victimized on his platforms during a Congressional hearing on online child safety.
7,169: How much does getting your vote cost? Well, if you caucused for Ron DeSantis in Iowa, it came out to about $7,169 after the once-hopeful rival to Donald Trump spent a staggering $168 million on his campaign, only to flame out and quit after he wound up 30 percentage points behind the GOP front-runner.
2.8: Inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.8 after rising in December, but don’t get too excited about a possible rate cut from the European Central Bank. The index is still running well ahead of its 2% target, and prices for services in particular remain stubbornly high.
57 million: Nearly AU$57 million (~US$37 million) donated to Australian political parties in 2022 and 2023 was of unknown origin, according to an analysis by the Australian Electoral Commission published Thursday. The so-called “dark money” represents about a quarter of all funding to major political parties Down Under, where the identities of donors below AU$15,200 are not subject to compulsory disclosure. (~US$9988).
1.6 million: French police are investigating the theft of 83 wine bottles from one of Paris’ finest restaurants in a $1.6 million caper. The loss was noticed when the sommelier of the 442-year-old Tour d’Argent restaurant did an inventory of his 300,000 bottles and could have occurred anytime between 2020 and 2024. GZERO sends our condolences *hic* – we have no idea what happened *hic*. 🥴😬Why European farmers are furious
Farmers are flocking to Paris in response to the new Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s agricultural policy announcement. And they aren’t coming to say merci.
They are demanding fairer prices for produce, the continuation of subsidies on gasoline, and financial aid for organic farmers.
Tractors have blocked main roads across the country and encircled Paris, cutting off access to the city’s two airports and the region’s main fresh food market at Rungis, which supplies 60% of the French capital’s fresh food. They have pledged to stay put until Thursday, when French President Emmanuel Macron will join European leaders in Brussels to discuss the EU budget and meet with European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, to address the agricultural crisis.
The agricultural crisis is an EU wide problem. Farmers in neighboring Belgium have also set up barricades on main highways, including into the capital, Brussels. Meanwhile, hundreds of German farmers are blocking key ports like Hamburg, one of the busiest European hubs for container shipping.
In 2023, farmer protests against environmental regulations were seen from Spain to the Netherlands. Both Germany and France’s protests were fueled over plans to discontinue gasoline subsidies because of their environmental impact. To farmers, paying for their pollution is too much with higher energy and fertilizer prices from the Ukraine war cutting into their bottom lines.
Ahead of the EU parliament elections this summer, far right and populist parties are flocking to show their support for the protests. From the AfD in Germany to Marine Le Pen in France, right-wingers are courting voters with agrarian populism, fueled by farmers feeling undervalued and overburdened by rules made by political elites, European institutions, and city dwellers who eat their food without understanding what it takes to grow it.