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Gabriel Attal, the French Prime Minister, is leaving the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on July 16, 2024, after the last Council of Ministers before Emmanuel Macron accepted his resignation.
French Prime Minister resigns: what now?
French President Emmanuel Macron accepted the resignation of his Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, on Tuesday. Who will take his place? Good question!
France now enters a fraught transition period in which Macron’s outgoing ministers act as a caretaker government while a new coalition is hammered out.
As a reminder, this all resulted from the French snap election, which took place a million news cycles ago earlier this month. Marine Le Pen’s far right National Rally party won more seats than any other single party, but lost to the New Popular Front, a leftwing patchwork in which Jean-Luc Melénchon’s far-left France Unbowed party is the biggest player.
Macron, whose centrist party placed third, called for an agreement “as soon as possible.” But it could take time. None of the blocs has enough seats to form a government alone, and coalition-building among political rivals after elections is uncommon in France. The Europhile Centrist Macron and the Euroskeptic hard-left Melénchon, for example, share little beyond a common disdain for Le Pen.
France’s transitions have never lasted more than 9 days, but as things stand, it would be a gold medal miracle if France has a new government before the Paris Olympics start next Friday.
Demonstrators celebrate during the New Popular Front’s election night after announcing the voting primary results for 2nd tour of the French legislative elections, in Paris on July 7, 2024.
French left-wing coalition tops election results
The New Popular Front won 182 seats in France’s National Assembly and became the largest party in a shock result from Sunday’s second-round vote, but no party has the numbers to form a governing majority.
Voter turnout was at its highest level in a generation – with the electorate likely spurred on by the far-right National Rally party, aka RN, coming in first last weekend. On Sunday, the RN fell far short of expectations, placing third with 143 seats. But fear of Marine Le Pen’s party did not drive support for Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, as it did in 2022 and 2017 — voters found a way to deny her a government while punishing the deeply unpopular president at the same time. Macron’s party lost seats despite coming in second at 163 seats, and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation.
What happens now? The NFP itself is a deeply unstable alliance of necessity, with bitter rivalries between the leaders of its constituent parties. It’s hard to imagine them staying together, but Macron is likely to try to form a “Rainbow Coalition” of centrists and leftists to govern with full powers. He’ll have to make major policy compromises to keep it together.
Failing that, Macron can implement a caretaker government with more limited authority until he can call another snap election in 12 months.
“France now faces a period of deep, political confusion which could be exploited by Le Pen,” says Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman. “The other squabbling, political forces of left, right, and center will struggle to agree on anything in the months ahead to soften the French electorate’s anger or anxieties about immigration, the cost of living, public services, or the exploding budget deficit.”Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party candidate, speaks to journalists after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, June 30, 2024.
French election: Far right wins first round
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally won the first round of France's election on Sunday with 33% of the vote, while the young left-wing New Popular Front alliance took around 28%. President Emmanuel Macron’s gambit to capitalize on fear of the far right failed to generate excitement for his Ensemble alliance, which placed third with roughly 21% of the vote.
That said, Le Pen’s party is expected to win between 230 and 280 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly after the second round of voting on July 7. That would put them short of the 289 seats needed for an outright majority, but with enough to make it difficult for either the NFP or Macron’s alliance to form an easy coalition.
Turnout on Sunday was unusually high, around 59%, fully 20 percentage points higher than the contest in 2022. We’re watching how well that interest holds up in round two, as well as whether Macron’s efforts to coordinate with the NFP to deny the RN a majority bear fruit. If they can agree to turn competitive three-way second-round races into likely losses for the RN by strategically withdrawing candidates from certain districts and thereby consolidating anti-RN votes, they may be able to prevent a far-right majority.
The likely result will be a hung parliament, says Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman, meaning Macron would form a caretaker government with much reduced power. “France is now facing the prospect of an enfeebled caretaker government before new elections in 2025, which will leave this G-7 power and UN Security Council permanent member largely rudderless for a year.”
France's snap election: Understanding why Macron took the risk
With Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings at a historic low, and far-right parties gaining popularity, could France’s upcoming election be its own “Brexit” moment? Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss snap elections in the UK and France, the complexities of Brexit, and its ongoing impact on domestic politics in Europe.
“There are a wide range of aspects of the UK-European relationship which don't work,” Carney says, “There's massive red tape, for example, in agricultural products, massive red tape and delays at the border, the inner workings of a very interconnected financial system.”
Calling a snap election in France is a big risk, Carney explains, but after his party underperformed in the EU parliamentary elections, Macron wants a referendum from the French people. He’s betting that voters used the EU election to send a message but will vote more moderately in national elections closer to home. Meanwhile, Labour is expected to win big in the UK elections, but the aftermath of Brexit still looms large. But the geopolitics of 2024 are very different than in 2016 during the Brexit referendum.
“There's a range of things that could be made better if the UK government and the European government wanted to work together,” Carney stresses, “And it's all operating in a GZERO World.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Macron's snap election gamble will have repercussions for France and EU
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello, Italy.
Did French President Emmanuel Macron make a grave mistake by calling for parliamentary elections now?
Well, remains to be seen. I think it should be seen also in the run up, in the context of the run up to the 2027 presidential elections, they’re going to be the real crucial ones. I think he faced the prospect of a slow death in the National Assembly and deciding that this was the only option where he had any possibility whatsoever, of recovering some strength, if that's possible. Now, France is facing a very difficult choice between the far-right, a resurgent far-right, which had roughly 40% of the vote in the European elections, and a far-left, which is equally destructive in different ways, and the center ground having lost out considerably.
So a couple of weeks to go before we get the final results. But it's a big gamble that will have profound repercussions, not only for France, but for Europe as a whole.
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- Ian Explains: How political chaos in the UK, France, & Canada impacts the US - GZERO Media ›
Eric Ciotti speaks to media in front of the LR heaquarters in Paris, France on June 11, 2024. The president of the Republicains, Eric Ciotti, announced on TF1 on Tuesday 11 June that he would like his party to form an alliance with the Rassemblement National for the legislative elections.
France’s center right splits over cooperating with Le Pen
The leader of France’s center-right party, Les Republicains, set off a firestorm on Tuesday by suggesting he would be open to an alliance with the far-right National Rally in upcoming snap elections. Éric Ciotti said his party’s dismal performance in European parliament elections over the weekend — fifth place, and just six seats — meant he felt obligated to work with Marine Le Pen to fend off the “threat to the nation” from the left wing and centrist parties.
Le Pen called the decision “brave,” but it’s driving a wedge through France’s traditional conservative party. Olivier Marleix, who leads Les Republicains in the lower house, called for Ciotti to step down and said he would not participate in any agreement with the far right, a sentiment many in the party echoed.
That’s exactly the kind of reaction President Emmanuel Macron is betting on to keep his party in control of the legislature in the upcoming vote on June 30. It’s worked for him before: French voters who went to Les Republicains or a party on the fractured left wing in the first rounds of the 2017 and 2022 elections begrudgingly pulled the lever for Macron in the second round after seeing a strong initial showing for Le Pen.
Can he make it a hat trick? Maybe, but it’s a huge gamble, and Macron’s approval polls are weaker now than they were two years ago. But if voters react like Marleix, he has a shot.The president of France, Emmanuel Macron.
Will the West let Zelensky strike inside Russia?
French President Emmanuel Macronsays Ukraine should be allowed to use Western weapons to hit military targets inside Russia, a shift that could give Kyiv a boost at a moment when Russia is making sizable gains against overmatched and undersupplied Ukrainian forces.
The remarks come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the limitations on what he can do with Western weapons.
The backdrop: Kyiv’s Western allies want to maximize support for Ukraine but not provoke a testy, nuclear-armed, and still-undaunted Vladimir Putin.
Macron, speaking alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – who agreed with him but has still refused to provide Germany’s own long range “Taurus” missiles to Kyiv – clarified that any strikes should be limited to facilities that Russia uses to attack Ukraine. Ukraine’s recent drone strike on a radar facility used by Russia’s nuclear arsenal was seen as a dangerous provocation of little strategic value.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has said Ukraine should be allowed to hit legitimate targets within Russia, and many member states agree. The US, however, by far the largest supplier of advanced arms to Ukraine, has so far kept restrictions in place.
What about French NATO trainers in Ukraine? Kyiv said earlier this week it had “signed the paperwork” for French NATO troops to do in-country training, but Paris walked it back, saying only that the possibility is under review. The US suggested such a move was “inevitable” a few weeks ago, but its official position is still no US troops in Ukraine. Training Kyiv’s troops locally is faster than the current practice of rotating them abroad for instruction – but it could also create a dilemma if a Russian airstrike killed NATO personnel: Would the alliance invoke Article 5, meaning a direct conflict with Russia? Or would it do nothing, eroding NATO’s credibility?France's President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with crew members before boarding his Presidential plane to travel to the Pacific archipelago of New Caledonia in an attempt to resolve a political crisis, at the Orly airport, a suburb of Paris on May 21, 2024.
Macron's high-stakes visit to riot-torn New Caledonia
French President Emmanuel Macron is making a surprise trip to New Caledonia, the French Pacific territory gripped by deadly unrest among young people from the Indigenous Kanak community. The violence has renewed discussions about France’s colonial past, which have largely focused on Africa until now.
Background: Riots began after France's parliament approved constitutional changes to give local voting rights to French citizens who had lived in the archipelago for at least 10 years. This would dilute the voting rights of the Indigenous population, which has voted three times for independence from France in recent years.
Macron is facing a lose-lose situation. If he postpones the constitutional change – it’s set to be ratified at the end of May – he will look like he is caving to violence. If he does nothing, he risks the insurrection continuing to dominate the French news cycle, rather than France’s recent economic upturn, ahead of the upcoming European Parliamentary elections. But with Macron’s party 15 points behind Marie Le Pen’s, he was already expected to face a humiliating defeat when voters head to the polls on June 9.
As Macron makes the two-day journey in hopes of finding a “comprehensive security agreement,” troops are working to rein in the violence ahead of his arrival. Their priority is clearing the highway to the international airport of barricades and burned vehicles, which are currently slowing tourists from leaving and medical and food supplies from arriving.