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Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party candidate, speaks to journalists after partial results in the first round of the early French parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, France, June 30, 2024.
REUTERS/Yves Herman
June 30, 2024
That said, Le Pen’s party is expected to win between 230 and 280 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly after the second round of voting on July 7. That would put them short of the 289 seats needed for an outright majority, but with enough to make it difficult for either the NFP or Macron’s alliance to form an easy coalition.
Turnout on Sunday was unusually high , around 59%, fully 20 percentage points higher than the contest in 2022. We’re watching how well that interest holds up in round two, as well as whether Macron’s efforts to coordinate with the NFP to deny the RN a majority bear fruit. If they can agree to turn competitive three-way second-round races into likely losses for the RN by strategically withdrawing candidates from certain districts and thereby consolidating anti-RN votes, they may be able to prevent a far-right majority.
The likely result will be a hung parliament, says Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman , meaning Macron would form a caretaker government with much reduced power. “ France is now facing the prospect of an enfeebled caretaker government before new elections in 2025, which will leave this G-7 power and UN Security Council permanent member largely rudderless for a year.”
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