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China's top diplomat Wang Yi speaks at a meeting with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Park Jin, in Busan, South Korea, on Nov. 26, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine and China talk Russia, France prepares for terrorist attempts at Olympics, New Zealand abuse scandal, Hunger expected to spike in Africa
12: Ukraine’s top diplomatmet with China’s foreign minister on Wednesday, signaling that China would like to play a more central role in finding a diplomatic end to the conflict. The talk comes after China’s previous attempt to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, a 12-point plan put forward in 2023, wasquickly dismissed by European leaders for being pro-Russia.
1,000: Ahead of Israel’s opening football match against Mali at the Olympic Games on Wednesday night, around1,000 French police officers formed an “anti-terror perimeter.” The game, along with a match between Ukraine and Iraq, have both been given the designation of high-risk because of their connections to global conflicts.
200,000: In New Zealand, an independent investigation found that more than200,000 people are estimated to have been abused by state organizations entrusted with their care. Many of the victims were children in foster care, and the abuse included sexual assault, electric shocks and chemical restraints, sterilization, starvation, and beatings.
600 million: UN officials said that levels of hunger are set to remain “shamefully” high in a report that predicts almost600 million people will be undernourished by 2030 – half of which will be in Africa, putting it on track to overtake Asia as the continent with the most hunger in the world. Hunger rates have jumped in the wake of COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and are likely to only worsen as climate change progresses.
Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau arrives to the venue on the last day of the NATO Summit in Madrid, Spain on June 30, 2022.
NATO goes all-in on Ukraine, Canada gets a slap on the wrist
At the NATO meeting in Washington this week, President Joe Biden announced a new air defense commitment for Ukraine that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is also in town, has long wanted. Ukraine’s defense against Russia is a central topic on the occasion of the alliance’s 75th anniversary as Putin steps up the Russian war effort.
Despite its own military aid and commitments to Ukraine, which run into the billions, Canada has been getting plenty of attention for its lack of spending. US officials criticize PM Justin Trudeau’s government for failing to meet NATO’s defense-spending target of 2% of GDP – it hit just the 1.38% GDP mark last year.
On X, Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivanposted, “Our NATO allies must do more to meet these dangerous times, particularly our friends in Canada who continue to freeload off this alliance and have yet to even present a real plan to meet the two percent of GDP minimum defense spending commitment all NATO countries agreed to meet.”
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who met with Trudeau this week, also called out Canada, posting that “it’s time for our northern ally to invest seriously in the hard power required to help preserve prosperity and security across NATO.”
Awkward … but maybe effective. On Wednesday, Canada announced plans to procure up to a dozen new submarines and, earlier today, Trudeau announced a plan to raise defense spending to hit NATO’s 2% target by 2032. He also said Ottawa would “continue to explore opportunities that will further increase defense spending, and advance Canada’s strategic interest.”Handout photo shows Left to right: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine) with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Vilnius. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky to the NATO Summit on Wednesday July 12, 2023, ahead of the inaugural meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Ukraine gets a NATO promise, sort of
NATO allies will reportedly announce today that Ukraine’s progress towards joining the organization is “irreversible.” The language will appear in the joint communiqué released by the alliance to conclude its three-day summit in Washington.
But when, precisely, that irreversible momentum will culminate in a NATO membership card for Kyiv is still no clearer now than it was three days ago.
Reports suggest that the allies spent hours hashing out how explicit to make any conditions in the text, but there seem to be two main hurdles: ending the war with Russia, and getting Ukraine’s governing and military institutions up to NATO-level snuff.
Neither of those things will happen anytime soon, which is why NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was clear earlier in the week that Ukraine’s membership is, in fact, still far off.
For Ukraine, then, it’s a mixed bag. A great vote of confidence from the world’s largest military alliance, yes. But no actual deterrent against a Kremlin which will, naturally, view the language as a provocation.
The alliance has, however, redoubled its commitment to helping Ukraine defend itself, announcing a $43 billion aid package, while the US said additional air defenses – as well as the first batch of F-16 fighter jets – were all on their way to Kyiv.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen sit in a F-16 fighter jet at Skrydstrup Airbase in Vojens, Denmark, August 20, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Ukraine finally getting F-16s, Hooliganism ahead of Euro semifinal, Snake smuggling in China, Rwanda says no refund to the UK
60: NATO countries have started transferring US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, the White House announced on Wednesday. Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium have pledged to provide roughly 60 of the fighter jets to Ukraine amid its war with Russia. Kyiv has been pushing for NATO countries to provide F-16s for well over a year. This first batch is being donated by the Dutch and Danish, though it’s unclear precisely how many are being sent at this time.
5: Hooliganism continues to plague the beautiful game … At least five people were injured in Dortmund, Germany, in clashes between Dutch and English football (soccer) fans ahead of the Euro 2024 semifinal between the two countries on Wednesday. Some of the violence was reportedly linked to Dutch fans attacking English fans in bars and attempting to steal flags.
100: In the immortal words of Indiana Jones, “Snakes … why’d it have to be snakes?” A man attempted to smuggle over 100 live snakes into China by hiding them in his pants but was caught by customs officials. He was apparently traveling with a wide variety of reptiles and packed them into drawstring canvas bags sealed with tape that were discovered in his pockets.
280 million: Rwanda says it’s not refunding the UK for a now-defunct deal for asylum-seekers to be deported to the landlocked African country. The UK provided Rwanda with roughly $280 million as part of the controversial scheme pushed by the prior Conservative government, though no deportations ever occurred, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer says the plan is now dead. The UK on Monday expressed hope it would get some of the funds back, but Rwanda on Wednesday said that wasn’t part of the agreement. “If you come and ask for cooperation and then withdraw, that’s your decision,” said Alain Mukuralinda, a Rwandan government spokesperson, adding, “Good luck.”
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi walk during their meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence near Moscow, Russia July 8, 2024.
Indian PM Narendra Modi: a “bleeding heart” in Moscow
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to take a swipe at Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Moscow on Tuesday, even if only a subtle one.
Just moments after the Russian president welcomed him to the Kremlin, Modi lamented that his “heart bleeds” whenever children are killed in war.
A timeless statement, yes – but the timing itself was a statement: The day before, the two leaders embraced just hours after an apparent Russian airstrike destroyed a children’s cancer hospital in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
Moscow has claimed, so far without evidence, that the hit came from a Ukrainian air defense system. The tragedy occurred as Moscow targeted cities across Ukraine with one of its biggest missile barrages in months.
The nonaligned line. Modi has, gently, criticized Putin’s invasion before, but the bigger picture remains the same: India has kept up good relations with Moscow throughout the war.
In part, that’s pragmatic. A rapidly growing Indian economy enjoys buying steeply discounted Russian oil. But it’s also ideological. Modi is keen to show that while he is glad to partner with the US over shared concerns about China, India – the most populous democracy and the fastest-growing major economy – has its own prerogatives.
How Ukraine's EU membership would change Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
To which extent is the betting scandal overshadowing everything else in the last week of the UK election campaign?
Well, I mean, the Conservative Party has been the one thing after the others. They never really got traction for any of their attempts to have a, from them, positive message in this particular campaign. So it's downhill. I think to be quite honest, the election campaign is now only about the size of the catastrophic defeat for the Conservative Party. And then, of course, the Labor Party is surviving with very high figures without much clarity on exactly what the policies are going to be for the incoming Labor government.
Will the start of the talks about the accession of Ukraine to the European Union impact upon the conduct of the war?
I don't think it will immediately, but we should not underestimate the historic nature of this particular decision. A couple of years ago, the entire thought about Ukraine ever being a member of the European Union was absolutely unthinkable in Brussels among the member states. Now it's become a strategically imperative. And negotiations started this Tuesday with Moldova as well. They will take their time, but it's a sign that the 27 member states of the European Union see the future of Ukraine as an essential part of the future of a democratic Europe. And that is going to have its long term impact.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks with Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, on the first day of the G7 summit at the Borgo Egnazia resort, in Savelletri, Italy, June 13, 2024.
G7 meeting: Ukraine and Meloni take center stage
Leaders from the G7 countries met Thursday in Italy’s Puglia region, where the future of Ukraine aid was high on the agenda
Who’s there? The meetings are hosted by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is at the height of her political power after European Parliamentary elections last weekend. She stands in contrast to other G7 leaders from Canada, the US, the UK, Japan, and Germany, all of whom are on shakier ground domestically.
Meloni also invited an A-list of non-Western leaders like President Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The highlights: Biden and Zelensky affirmed their partnership at a bilateral press conference. The group agreed to loan Ukraine $50 billion to rebuild its devastated infrastructure with the understanding it would be paid back by interest earned on the frozen Russian assets. They also passed a new round of sanctions aimed at countering China’s effort to remake Russia’s defense industrial base.
Looming over the group’s progress on Ukraine was the possibility that Donald Trump, who has spoken openly of pulling out of NATO and against further Ukraine aid, could be back in power by the time the group next meets in 2025. Several present — including Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and President Emmanuel Macron — are facing elections that could redefine Europe.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, U.S. President Joe Biden, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and World Bank President Ajay Banga attend a Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) event, on the first day of the G7 summit, in Savelletri, Italy, June 13, 2024.
G7 strikes compromise on Ukraine funding
Both Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden flew to Italy this week for G7 meetings, where they pledged to strengthen the coalition supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian invaders.
The G7 countries are expected to agree to lend Ukraine about $50 billion for reconstruction, backing the loan by using the interest accruing on $300 billion worth of Russian assets that were frozen by Western financial institutions after the invasion.
The move is a grand compromise between countries, like Canada, which have called for outright seizure of those assets in order to give them directly to Ukraine, and countries in Europe, where many of the assets are located, which have pushed back, citing issues of rule of law and precedent for other investors.
Putting the deal in practice will still require some complicated financial and legal chicanery, say experts, but the sense of urgency comes in part from concerns about the US Presidential election this fall.
Polls continue to show Biden, a strong supporter of Ukraine, trailing Donald Trump, who has shown little interest in helping Kyiv.
The asset-interest scheme is seen as a way to lock in a stream of Western financing for Ukraine that exists independently of any changing political winds in Washington.