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President Donald Trump waves as he walks before departing for Florida from the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on March 28, 2025.
Trump scolds Putin over Ukraine after Moscow greenlights his ambitions for Greenland
Is the bloom off the bromance between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin? On Sunday, Trump took Putin to task over Russia’s foot-dragging on a ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened to tariff Russian oil and impose more sanctions on the country.
“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault ... I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said. “That would be, that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States … There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.” So far, there’s been no reaction from the Kremlin, but Trump said he would be talking with Putin this week.
A Greenland connection? Trump’s comments came a day after he reaffirmed his interest in acquiring Greenland for reasons of American and international security – something that Putin seems just fine with. At an Arctic policy forum in Murmansk on Thursday, Putin expounded on the “historical roots” of America’s interest in the island and said it was a matter that did not concern Russia.
But it may concern Ukraine. In the same speech, Putin said he would support a UN-led administration in Ukraine to hold new elections. And Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s envoy for foreign investment and economic cooperation, said that while Moscow is open for investment cooperation in the Arctic with the US, “before deals can be done the war in Ukraine needs to end.”Volodymyr Zelensky gestures as he attends a press conference on March 12, 2025.
Trump and Zelensky phone call keeps talks “on track”
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky had a phone call on Wednesday that had supporters of Ukraine’s defense on the edge of their seats. After the call ended, Trump quickly took to Truth Social to characterize the nearly hourlong exchange as a “very good telephone call.” He added, “We are very much on track.” Zelensky issued a statement later on Wednesday that called the conversation “positive” and “very substantive,” prompting sighs of relief from Kyiv to Brussels.
Zelensky’s statement also said that “together with America, with President Trump, and under American leadership, lasting peace can be achieved this year,” a comment that says less about the near-term chances for peace than about how much the Ukrainian president has learned about what it takes to keep Trump onside. Still, in his post on X, Zelensky agreed that ending strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure was a good first step, saying "I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it."
But the Ukrainian leader also has repeatedly warned Trump that when it comes to dealing with Vladimir Putin, one must “trust but verify.” Ukraine had already accused Russia of targeting energy infrastructure in the early hours of Wednesday morning and of a new attack on the electricity system powering the railways in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region. This is despite the fact that Putin has said he ordered the Russian military to halt energy infrastructure attacks right after getting off the phone with Trump on Tuesday.
In better news, Russia and Ukraine swapped 175 prisoners of war each on Wednesday, one of the largest exchanges the two sides have made, according to Zelensky.
Today, EU leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss further support for Ukraine, and Zelensky is set to open the summit with a speech made by video link.
About that (Trump-Putin) phone call
Last week, the US and Ukrainian governments agreed to pursue a 30-day ceasefire with no preconditions. Putin said yesterday on that call that he agrees – as long as the halt to fighting applies only to strikes on energy infrastructure, a major military target for both sides in recent months. That’s far short of the pause on fighting by land, sea, and air that Trump wanted, though Putin did say he was also ready to talk about a pause on attacks on Black Sea shipping. (Clearly, the Russian president is tired of daily briefings on the successes of Ukrainian air and sea drones.)
In the meantime, Russian forces will continue to push for more territorial gains on the ground, and Russia remains free to launch air attacks on civilian populations. We saw more of that last night. Since spring is here and power losses will no longer leave Ukrainians in the freezing cold, the promise to hold off on attacking energy infrastructure costs Russia little.
Putin offered Trump enough to encourage the US president to continue talks on a broader US-Russia rapprochement, one that includes benefits for both economies. Trump also has no reason to begin insisting that Ukrainians and Europeans participate in future negotiations, another prize for Putin.
Any halt or slowdown in the intensity of attacks will keep more civilians alive, at least for now. That's good news, and there's likely to be further movement toward a broader ceasefire at some point later in the year, maybe by the end of April.
But a durable peace agreement is another question. Putin made clear to Trump that he has some bright red lines that must be respected. For example, the Russian president insisted there could be no ongoing military and intelligence support for Ukraine from either the US or Europe. (The US readout of the call doesn’t mention that, but the Kremlin version does.) Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky will turn quickly to the Europeans for help, and he’ll get it. Neither Ukraine nor Europe has any reason to accept an end to support for Kyiv. That will be a large problem for Trump in getting the big-splash peace deal he wants.
Still, Trump might soon argue that Ukraine and its Euro allies are the obstacle that prevents a temporary ceasefire from blossoming into permanent peace. If so, Putin will miss out on a peace deal he doesn’t want in exchange for a big new opening with the president of the United States.
That’s where Trump and Putin have left it. From his visit yesterday to Finland, Zelensky offered a positive preliminary appraisal of the energy infrastructure ceasefire, but with some big caveats. He said that he’ll have a “conversation with President Trump” where he’ll try to read the fine print on Trump’s exchange with Putin. That call happened earlier today. He called on Russia to free all Ukrainian prisoners of war as a gesture of good faith, and he vowed to keep Ukrainian troops inside Russia’s Kursk region “for as long as we need.”
But the energy ceasefire is essentially a scaled-back version of the proposal for a long-range airstrike halt and naval truce that Zelensky offered before the US-Ukrainian meeting last week in Saudi Arabia. If Ukraine’s president does fully endorse the idea, Europe will quickly get to yes too. Ukraine and the Europeans will then try to work toward winning a broader ceasefire that puts the Kremlin back on the spot. For now, that prospect looks doubtful.
Sadly, today’s news on Ukraine sounds a lot like what we’ve seen in Gaza where, as hard and time-consuming as it was to get that first ceasefire, a move to phase two will yield a lot fewer points the two sides can agree on. And as with Gaza, when that first ceasefire comes to an end, expect a new burst of deadly violence.
That’s why it’s hard to be optimistic that yesterday’s bargaining has moved us any closer to a true and lasting peace, the outcome all sides say they want.
Putin-Trump Ukraine call is a small win for both sides
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: The Putin-Trump call, some 90 minutes long, now over. And I would call this a win for both sides, for the Americans and the Russians, and not horrible for Ukraine and Europe, but kicking the can on what's going to be some big problems down the road and setting out where those challenges are going to be. Why is that?
Well, first of all, Putin said, "No," to the 30-day complete ceasefire, but did give a win to Trump, having accepted a 30-day ceasefire with no conditions with the Ukrainians. The Russians are saying they're prepared to do that, with no gives, as long as it's about targeting energy infrastructure, and in principle, still some discussions around maritime attacks around the Black Sea. Places that frankly the Russians have been irritated with what Ukraine has been able to do with air drones and with sea drones. And also allows the Russians to continue to press for territorial gains over the course of the coming weeks, depleting Ukraine's military capabilities. Plus, the weather's getting warmer, how much damage are you going to do to Ukraine, how miserable you can make them when you're no longer dealing with the freeze is not quite as relevant. So, not a particular loss for the Russians.
The fact that you're going to have less engagement militarily means fewer people will get killed. That's good for everybody involved, frankly. So that's where we are. Did you need 90-minutes to get that going? Not really, because the Russians also want to ensure that they have lots of conversations with the Americans about building business between the two sides, about people-to-people engagement, about finding a way to ensure that there is an ongoing bilateral channel where the Europeans aren't involved, where the Ukrainians aren't involved, that's essential for Putin and that he got. So yes, you have a meaningful, relatively contained ceasefire that maybe you can build on, but you also have a meaningful bilateral channel for broader engagement between the Americans and the Russians that the Ukrainians and the Europeans aren't going to be a part of, and that the Americans have no interest in having the Ukrainians Europeans being a part of.
Now, what Trump has heard from Putin in terms of red lines is that to actually have a comprehensive ceasefire ongoing, that the Russians are demanding, that there is no further intelligence or military support to Ukraine from the United States or Europe. That's obviously a non-starter for the Ukrainians because it means they won't be able to defend themselves as the Russians rebuild. It's a non-starter for the Europeans for similar reasons. Trump might be willing to negotiate that, and if he is, then he and Putin can blame Ukraine and the Europeans for not being able to take a 30-day limited ceasefire and expand it, which is exactly the position that Putin wants to be in. So, Putin giving a little bit in the near-term with the hopes of getting a lot more in the longer-term, getting Trump as it were, a little bit pregnant around a deal so that he's more engaged with the Russians in areas that's going to be more consequential and more costly for Europe and for the Ukrainians.
So that's where we are. We don't know yet whether the Ukrainians are going to accept these limited 30-day terms. I expect they will, because Trump wants them to. And when that happens, the Europeans will be onboard, too. The intention will be to try to use that by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, to try to get a longer, broader ceasefire. But there, the working level conversations between the US and Russia, between the US and Ukraine, are going to be far more difficult and they're probably not going to hold.
It feels a little bit like what we have in Gaza. Relatively easy to get the first iteration of a deal in place where no one's really giving anything up, but as you go into the second phase, you find that the fundamental interests don't actually overlap, and that's why we're fighting again on the ground in Gaza, with the Israelis killing hundreds of people there in the last 24-hours, and it's why I expect ultimately we are not heading towards peace, even though we do get a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine.
Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump hold a bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019.
With Putin, Trump settles for less (for now)
Putin offered Trump a ceasefire that would halt attacks by either side on energy infrastructure, a frequent recent target of both Russian and Ukrainian long-range fire. The two sides would exchange prisoners, though it’s not yet clear which ones, and Trump and Putin agreed to begin bargaining over terms for safe shipping in the Black Sea. These are Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire.
A few minutes later, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that, during their “very good and productive phone call,” Putin had agreed to an “immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and infrastructure,” and that all sides would be “working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire” and “an END to this very horrible war.”
This falls well short of the immediate cessation of fighting on land, sea, and air that Trump hoped to announce.
By agreeing last week to Trump’s no-preconditions ceasefire, Ukraine was able to push the diplomatic ball into Russia’s court. Putin has now slapped it back, and it’s not yet clear how the Ukrainian government will respond.
What will Trump offer Putin in Ukraine ceasefire talks?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Tomorrow is the call between President Trump and President Putin. The most important geopolitical discussion I would argue that we have seen so far of the Trump administration. Look, what we've had so far has been a move towards a ceasefire. Trump beating up on the Ukrainians, on President Zelensky in particular, which is comparatively easy to do. They are in a much weaker position. That's particularly easy to do if you don't feel like you need to be in lockstep with NATO allies, with the Europeans, with the Canadians. And as a consequence, Trump, off-again and now on-again relationship with the Ukrainian president, has now gotten Ukraine to agree to a one-month ceasefire with no preconditions. And that's definitely progress. And the Europeans are all on board and supportive of that.
That is closer to a ceasefire than Biden certainly ever got the Ukrainians. And though I would argue, it has certainly caused a lot of concern among US allies of whether or not the Americans can be counted on long-term. In the near term, it makes it easier and more likely to get to an end of the war than we were a month ago. And frankly, I think we would've been better off if Biden had been more willing to push Zelensky and push the European allies, and show that American power recognized that Ukraine was weakening in their position, vis-a-vis Russia and that the war was only leading to more expense and more lives being lost on both sides. And so, pushing for a shorter-term ceasefire was an important thing to do.
They weren't willing to expend much political capital. They certainly weren't willing to upset people, and as a consequence, we didn't get there. That's the good news is that we now have Zelensky in a position with everybody on board on the Western side, that a ceasefire should be agreed to, and nothing else needs to be discussed. That, of course, is not the Putin position. And now a much harder point, a much more challenging point, and open to question, is to what degree is Trump when push comes to shove, prepared to hurt Putin. Because of the earlier call that the two men had, 90 minutes long, and then the follow-up conversation in Riyadh between the cabinet members of both countries, that was easy.
That was, "Hey, Biden wouldn't talk to you. I'm willing to talk to you. Let's talk broadly about things we might be able to do together. We can talk about investment. We can talk about strategy. We can talk about the Arctic. We can talk about arms control. And yes, we can talk about Ukraine." And nothing was being forced for the Russians to agree with. This was all upside, especially because it was just a bilateral conversation. The Ukrainians weren't involved. The Europeans were involved. It's exactly the format that Putin wants to support. But now we have the Ukrainians saying they'll support a one-month ceasefire with no preconditions. What about Russia?
Because if Russia comes out of this phone call with Trump and says, "That's it, there's no pathway. I refuse to accept what you're putting forward." Well, then either Trump looks really weak for having gotten the Ukrainians to the table but not the Russians' table, isn't prepared to do anything about it. Or he has to actually follow through with some level of strikes, sanctions, economic strikes against Putin and further support to Ukraine, which is not, of course, at all where Trump wants to be. That will escalate the fighting. It won't lead the fighting to an end. So, what really matters here is how much is Trump prepared to offer to Putin when he drives a harder bargain than Zelensky was driving. And how much is Trump prepared to give away?
And I mean, from Putin's perspective, he wants to test that proposition. Ideally, for Putin, Putin gets enough that Trump says yes, and that Ukraine says no and ruins the conversation, and Ukraine is blamed for not wanting peace. And then the Americans and the Russians can go forth and build their own broader engagement, bilaterally over the heads of the Europeans, and the Ukrainians are the problem and the Europeans are stuffed. That is Putin's ideal outcome, but it's not clear he can get to that ideal outcome. Because if he pushes Trump too hard and it blows up, then suddenly he's angry, he's embarrassed. And he's also much more powerful than the Russians, and he's willing to talk to the Europeans in that environment. It's exactly what the Russians don't want.
If you're Putin, you push, but you also don't want this conversation to blow up. So, you want to see how much you get for Trump, but you also want to get to yes. And so, really, the question is not how much Putin ends up giving up. It's really about whether or not Trump makes it easy on Putin. And there are lots of reasons to believe that he will. So far, he has been willing proactively to say that Ukraine should never join NATO. Well, that wasn't a part of the one-month ceasefire that the Ukrainians agreed to, but it might be a requirement for Putin. Trump throws that out. Does that then blow up the Ukrainian conversation?
Trump has also said that Ukraine's not going to get all of their land, but he hasn't made that a condition of the one-month ceasefire. Does Putin require that? Does Trump say yes? It's a fairly easy give for Trump, except it's not been coordinated with the Ukrainians. Are the Ukrainians prepared to accept that? By the way, that would be the minimum table stakes that I think Putin would demand since Trump has effectively already given them away. Now, he could go much harder than that. He's also talked about wanting formal recognition over some of the territories that Russia presently occupies.
Might the United States directly be willing to recognize that territory? Ukraine wouldn't have to, but the United States would. I think that's a bad idea in a first-phase agreement, where the Russians can come right back and start fighting at the end of 30 days. But it's possible that Trump would be willing to give it away. Putin has said that he refuses to allow a 30-day ceasefire to be an opportunity for the Ukrainians to reconsolidate their military, which is facing pretty much a lot of hardship right now. They don't have as much artillery, they don't have as much ammunition, and they've also been bleeding recruits.
Is Trump willing to say, "Okay, for 30 days, I'm going to re-suspend aid to the Ukrainians?" I could see him doing that. But I can't see Trump saying that the Europeans are going to re-suspend aid to Ukraine over those 30 days. And certainly, I don't see the Europeans agreeing to that by themselves. And well, would Russia agree to a deal that doesn't have the Europeans in that environment? Might the Americans re-suspend intelligence aid to Ukraine over those 30 days? In principle, maybe you don't need that. If there's no fighting going on, maybe the intelligence isn't such a problem. So, that could be an easier give for Trump to offer that Zelensky wouldn't have a problem with.
And then there are broader issues of, for example, the Americans withdrawing forward troop deployments that are presently rotating in the Baltic states. For example, something that would make it feel that the United States is no longer as much of a threat with NATO to Russia, a give to the Russians. Finally, you could imagine the United States being willing to take some sanctions off. This is undermining the common position with the Europeans but is less of a direct problem for Zelensky than saying you don't get NATO or saying that you're not going to get to keep your land as a codified piece of a deal with the Russians.
My view is that the 30-day period, Trump should maintain a fairly hard line because he's maintained a hard line with the Ukrainians and it's been effective. And the US is ultimately in a stronger position than the Russians are. But Trump has also made it clear that he really, really, really wants to get to yes, and that a lot of these things don't matter very much for him. So, he's essentially put Putin in a stronger position than he really is. And this is why it's so interesting that Trump always likes to use these analogies with the cards. He said, "The Ukrainians don't have the cards, and the Russians don't really have the cards." And yet, as someone who plays poker, we all know that frequently people that don't have cards win.
And the reason they win is because they play better than you do. And so, what we're going to see tomorrow is the degree to which Putin, who doesn't have the cards that Trump has, is nonetheless a more effective poker player. And I am concerned, at least somewhat concerned, that Putin's poker skills are actually better, more effective than Trump's are. Even though if both sides were to actually have to show their cards right now, we'd see that the Americans would win quite easily. And the Americans with the Europeans would win overwhelmingly, and yet that's not the way these hands are being played right now.
So, anyway, we'll see where it goes tomorrow. I'm sure I'll give you a quick response after we get that news. But that's where I think we are. I suspect Putin's going to come out of this happier than he should have any right to be and that the Americans will give away more than they should. But hopefully, not by a dramatic margin and that that will make it more likely that we still get to this one-month ceasefire. But we'll see tomorrow, and I'll talk about it then. Be good.
- Why it matters that Putin won't talk to Zelensky ›
- Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance ›
- Putin trolls Europe about "the master" Trump ›
- Trump's dealmaking with Putin leaves Ukraine and Europe with nowhere to turn ›
- What can Trump offer Putin? ›
- Trump demands Putin sign ceasefire - GZERO Media ›
- Putin-Trump Ukraine call is a small win for both sides - GZERO Media ›
Russian President Vladimir Putin could talks with President Donald Trump as early as this week. Artem Priakhin/SOPA Images via Reuters Connect
Moscow demands major concessions in Ukraine ceasefire talks
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss America’s 30-day ceasefire proposal this week after Ukraine endorsed the plan last Tuesday but Putin torpedoed it with a list of conditions. Trump said Sunday that he would speak with the Russian leader on Tuesday and that there were ongoing negotiations about “dividing up certain assets.”
What does Russia want? To allay fears that a pause will give Ukraine a chance to rearm itself, Putin is demanding that Ukraine cease all military mobilization and that the West halt arms supplies. Moscow also wants to formally annex the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, which Russia occupies but has not managed to fully control – something Ukraine adamantly opposes.
Who else is engaging – or not? UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced Saturday that a growing coalition of nations will back Ukraine in its negotiations with Russia, including offering air and peacekeeping support, as well as seizing frozen Russian assets to keep the pressure on Moscow.
Meanwhile, Trump narrowed the role of US General Keith Kellogg from Special Envoy to Moscow and Ukraine to dealing only with Ukraine, reportedly after the Kremlin claimed Kellogg was too close to Kyiv. In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that "General Kellogg, a Highly Respected Military Expert, will deal directly with President (Volodymyr Zelenski), and Ukrainian leadership… He knows them well, and they have a very good working relationship together.” Businessman and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who has previously said that Russia was “provoked” into attacking Ukraine, is now considered the key player in the talks with Putin.
What’s happening on the ground? After a vicious drone assault last weekend, Russian forces are now fighting to expel Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region. Ukrainian soldiers there are vowing to “fight to the bitter end” amid evacuations and destruction in border villages.
A Russian army soldier walks along a ruined street of Malaya Loknya settlement, which was recently retaken by Russia's armed forces in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kursk region, on March 13, 2025.
Putin says he supports ceasefire, but with a huge asterisk
Russian President Vladimir Putinsaid Thursday that he supports a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, in principle, but imposed major conditions ahead of talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow.
He explained that he’s opposed to anything that would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm or compromise Russia’s momentum, in which troops are “advancing practically everywhere” along the front. He also asked who would oversee and enforce a ceasefire along “more than 2,000 kilometers” of frontlines.
A day earlier, Putin visited troops in Kursk, a Russian region where Kremlin forces are currently routing Ukrainian troops who have occupied parts of the region since August.
Putin said a ceasefire could not be used for those Ukrainians to go back to Ukraine. “There are two options,” he said, “surrender or die.”
Most ominously: Putin said any settlement had to address the “long term” and “root causes” of his 2022 invasion. The Kremlin has long pushed for a change in Ukraine’s government, demilitarization of the country, international recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and other Ukrainian territories, and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO.
These terms, functionally a surrender, are not ones that Ukraine could agree to willingly, which puts the ball back in the US court.
Putin said he would like to speak with Donald Trump who, also on Thursday, said that he was open to the idea but that “we have to get it over with fast.”
And that’s the problem: Trump wants fast, Putin wants slow, and the US may not have the leverage, or the willingness, to change his clock.