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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Head of the Federal Service for Financial Monitoring Yury Chikhanchin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on July 8, 2025.

Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS

Russia’s dark future

At first glance, Russia has coped well under the weight of Ukraine-related Western sanctions. In 2024, its economy grew at a faster rate than every G7 country. Though Europe has gone almost entirely cold turkey on Russian oil and gas supplies, thirst for these resources in China and India, quenched by a shadow tanker fleet that helps evade those sanctions, has kept Russia’s energy trade stable.

Longer term, climate change can help. Warming temperatures will open new Russian lands to farming and boost its agricultural output. They will open new sea routes that lower Russia’s cost of commerce and bring revenue from transit fees imposed on others. Perhaps most importantly, the Kremlin has long claimed it can transition from its currently heavy reliance on oil and gas exports to deeper investment in wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen, and solar energy.

But the realities of Russia’s future are darkening.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on June 23, 2025.

Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via REUTERS

What We’re Watching: Iran meets with Putin, NATO gathers at the Hague, Venezuela targets black markets

US bombing of Iran creates Russian conundrum

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Iran’s foreign minister on Monday, offering rhetorical support for Tehran – but it’s unclear what more the Kremlin is willing to do for its last major Middle Eastern ally right now. Putin has cultivated good ties with Iran, but also with Israel. At the same time, with Washington focused on Iran, Russia continued to hammer Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. Just days ago, Putin openly declared that the “whole of Ukraine is ours” – does he think the end goal is in sight?

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- YouTube

Ukraine drone strikes deep inside Russia

In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt provides an update on the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

Bildt highlights Ukraine’s recent drone strikes on Russian bomber bases that was “beyond what you see in James Bond movies.” The bold Ukrainian operation comes amid a shifting geopolitical landscape that may be encouraging Russia to double down. Bildt notes that Russia’s maximalist demands and Trump’s apparent withdrawal of pressure on Putin have emboldened Moscow to continue military operations. Bildt warns, “we are facing further tragic months of war in the East of Europe."

- YouTube

Ukraine’s drone strike shocks Russia and redefines modern warfare

Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strike deep inside Russian territory destroyed up to 20 aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers and early warning systems.

Ian Bremmer calls it “one of the most extraordinary asymmetric attacks in modern warfare,” raising urgent questions about Russia’s nuclear deterrence and the global balance of power.

Powered by a homegrown drone program and diaspora technologists, Ukraine’s low-cost innovation dealt a massive blow to Moscow’s high-value assets. Ian draws parallels to Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah, showing how modern warfare is being redefined.

“The dangers are not just to the Ukrainian people—the dangers are increasingly global,” warns Ian.

Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Kursk-II nuclear power plant under construction, in the Kursk region, Russia, on May 21, 2025.

Kremlin.ru/Handout via REUTERS

What We’re Watching: Putin celebrates in Kursk, “Death camp” discovery in Mexico, & DRC seeks US help against China

Putin takes a victory lap

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kursk on Tuesday for the first time since the Kremlin declared that it had ejected Ukrainian fighters from the Russian region. It’s another flex for a leader who signals no interest in halting the war in Ukraine. The next challenge for Moscow: Can its army secure major battlefield gains this summer to further boost its bargaining position?

Activists press Mexico’s government on cartel “death camp”

Pressure is growing on Mexico’s government to take action against drug cartels that have kidnapped, tortured, and killed tens of thousands of people over the last two decades, after relatives of some of the 120,000 disappeared persons learnt this week about a “death camp” in the western state of Colima. Authorities discovered mass graves there 18 months ago, but only just passed on the information to victims’ families. Taking on these gangs is a complex task for President Claudia Sheinbaum, as local authorities lack the manpower and firepower to quell them.

US vs China in the DRC

Felix Tshisekedi, president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has picked a fight with China over its cobalt and wants US help. The sub-Saharan nation banned exports of the metal – an essential input for the battery, defense, and aerospace industries – in February, but China’s top cobalt producer, COMC, is now pushing the DRC to lift the ban. The DRC produces about three-quarters of the world’s cobalt, and is seeking to engage the Trump administration to find new investment partners in a bid to limit Chinese influence in its cobalt trade.

- YouTube

Trump’s call with Putin fails to deliver Ukraine ceasefire

Ian's takeaways:

On Trump’s Ukraine policy: “Absent a ceasefire, there is no breakthrough deal between Trump and Putin. None of that’s going to happen.”

On Western backlash over Gaza: “At the end of the day, unless Trump is going to squeeze Israel hard and say, 'Suspend intelligence and aid,' the way he did with the Ukrainians, I have a hard time seeing the Israelis in any way backing down from what is at this point an completely unconscionable military intervention and ethnic cleansing across the board in Gaza."

On tech power vs. government: “In the US digital space, it’s the tech CEOs who hold the power and the government isn’t ready for what’s coming.”

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney leaves his office on Parliament Hill after his second day in office, on April 30, 202.

Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto

What we’re watching: G7 tries to find common ground, Putin and Trump differ on Ukraine call, Milei gets capital boost in Argentina

G7 Finance Ministers meet in Canada

Finance ministers from the G7 group of advanced democracies meet on Tuesday, with Trump’s huge “Liberation Day” tariffs still looming large. Can they really reach a common position on key issues such as commerce, climate, AI, and Ukraine? It’ll be a good bellwether for the upcoming G7 leaders summit next month.

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