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Ian Bremmer on Trump's first 100 days
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: It is a hundred days of President Trump's second administration. How's he doing? And the answer is not so well, certainly not if you look at the polls. Worst numbers for first a hundred days of any president since they've been taking those polls. Markets, of course, down, global economy also down, so much of this self-imposed. And it's not the big-picture policy ideas. The things that Trump says he wants to do are not only popular, but they're also sensible policy: end wars, secure the border, and fair trade. Running on those three planks would work for pretty much anyone in the United States, the things that Trump is committed to, the things that previous administrations, including Biden and the promise of Harris, had not been particularly effective at. But the implementation has been abysmal. The lack of interest in policy specifics, lack of ability to effectively execute, and the dysfunction inside the Trump team/teams, economy, national security has been really challenging.
Tariffs, of course, so far have been the big problem, big internal fight on what it was that Trump should do and for what purpose. In terms of the purpose of these tariffs, you had so many ideas, and a lot of them were mutually contradictory. You're meant to raise revenue and lower taxes and reshore manufacturing and balance deficits and decouple from China and improve national security and on and on and on. These tariffs were going to be a panacea for absolutely everything, and you can't accomplish all of it. And that means that all of the fights that are going on, these countries don't know what the Trump administration actually wants. Bessent, the secretary of treasury, came in with one idea, and Peter Navarro, who initially won, came in with a second, the senior trade advisor in the White House, and Lutnick sort of had a third, and now Bessent is in charge for now, nominative.
Of course, Trump is really in charge, and Trump isn't interested in the specifics. He just wants deals. He wants wins. And he's saying, "Well, you guys, you other countries, you tell us what you're going to do. Well, it's not our job to tell you what we want, even though we're the ones that are expecting these deals to come together." And of course, it's happening with the Americans picking fights with all of these countries, literally everybody in the world simultaneously. And the impact that's going to have on the American economy is going to be dramatic. It's going to be long-lasting. It'll be, in many ways, as big as the pandemic, but completely self-imposed.
And even if deals were put together tomorrow, and they won't be, with the Europeans, with the Mexicans and Canadians, with the Chinese in particular, you'd already have a massive long-term disruption because the supply chains, the tankers, the contracts have already been severed for a period of time. And every day this goes on is a day that it's going to get worse. So that's going to lead to a lot of inflation in the United States, going to lead to a lot of bankruptcies and need for stimulus in other countries around the world, and the average voter's not going to be happy about that at all, which does help to explain why they did Liberation Day the day after elections in the US, special elections in Wisconsin and Florida and elsewhere.
Ending wars, Gaza did have a ceasefire early on, but not now. And now Trump is planning his trip to the Gulf and doesn't have Israel on the schedule, at least not yet, because there's more fighting happening between the Israeli Defense Forces and what's left of Hamas. And that fighting is not something Trump wants to see. Let's see how successful he is at bringing it to a ceasefire.
More important for everyone right now in the United States is the Russia-Ukraine War. The Americans are pushing to end that war, and Trump has had some success in getting the Ukrainians to the table because they understand that the or else is their intelligence and defense support from the US will be shut down, as it was suspended, so they're taking it very seriously. But the Russians are not because Trump has not displayed much of an or else for the Russians, hasn't said directly that if Russia refuses to do a ceasefire, that the US will provide more support for Ukraine, even though Trump advisors were saying that before he became president, has said, "Well, maybe there'll be secondary sanctions." But Trump is not making this very serious for Putin, and so Putin isn't taking it very seriously. Nobody thought he was really going to end the war in a day, but it's been a couple of months of effort, and clearly now Trump and team are losing patience and it's looking increasingly that they might walk away, which is why they're engaging with the Iranians and why, heck, Kim Jong Un probably is going to get a call at some point, right? Because Russia-Ukraine not working so well. So much for ending those wars.
And then on the border front, where Trump is having much more success in terms of policy, you don't see illegal immigrants coming into the US at anywhere close to the numbers they were under Biden or during Trump first term, and that has been a response to effective US policy. But there's also been overreach in terms of refusal to carry out the rulings of federal justices and even the Supreme Court, and that overreach is something that most Americans oppose. So even in the area where Trump is doing the best, his numbers are actually not as favorable as you might otherwise expect because of the dysfunction and because of the overreach of a more revolutionary Trump orientation.
Look, even DOGE, where I was kind of hoping in the early days that DOGE was certainly going to be effective at taking a lot of the corruption and the overspending out of the US government, but much less has been done on that front. There's been lots of claims of fraud, but very little evidence of actual fraud. There's been lots of claims that they were going to take two trillion, then one trillion, then maybe 150 billion, and now looks like less of that with Elon in charge of DOGE. And the focus that they have had has been much more politicized, much more ideological. Anything that looks like DEI or woke, let's just remove all of it and not necessarily do it with a scalpel, but more with a sledgehammer or a chainsaw, which means a lot of important programs get caught up, along with programs that no Americans should be funding.
And so overall, it's been a very challenging first hundred days. This is very much a move fast and break things approach. They are moving very fast. They are breaking a lot of things. There's not a lot of building, at least not yet. And a lot of Americans, while they feel that their government is inefficient and bloated, very few Americans want to see the government be broken further than it already is and less effective than it is, and that is so far what people are seeing. They're seeing it at home and they're seeing it internationally.
And they're not seeing a lot of restraint, even as mistakes are made, not only because Trump is never going to admit to have made any mistakes, of course that is something that you see from pretty much every president, but also, unlike most presidents, he's surrounded by people that don't tell him when he gets things wrong. And that is very different from Trump's first term, and that's a problem because you want to have people, irrespective of how loyal they are to you, you want them to be loyal first and foremost to the country. But Trump doesn't want that. He wants them loyal to him before they're loyal to the country, and that means not giving him information when he screws up because he will retaliate against them. And that's going to get you negative outcomes, I think, not just for the first a hundred days, but also for a much longer period of time in the United States and internationally. I hope I'm wrong. I certainly want to see him succeed, I want to see the country succeed, but that is not the trajectory that we are now on.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to y'all real soon.
Rescuers search for a 17-year-old and his parents near an apartment building hit by a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, on April 24, 2025.
A “critical” week for Ukraine
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday that this week is “very critical” for Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine. Russia’s Vladimir Putin made news on Monday by offering a three-day ceasefire beginning on May 8, a move perhaps motivated by skeptical recent comments from Trump on Russia’s willingness to bargain in good faith.
The list of issues still separating Russia and Ukraine remains long, but the larger reason for doubting the war will end soon is a near-complete lack of trust between Moscow and Kyiv and each government’s hope that it can still improve its position on the battlefield.
For Ukraine, there are new signs of hope. In recent days, reports have emerged that Russia’s wartime economy has begun to sputter – Goldman Sachs reports that Russia’s annualized economic growth has fallen from about 5% at the end of last year to below zero now. The boost that Russia’s shift to wartime production provided the country’s economy appears to be used up. In addition, the lower global oil price is biting into Russia’s export revenues, particularly from economically slumping China.
Ukrainian forces can also take heart from the early successes of its plan to build more and better drones domestically, including smaller exploding models that can be controlled remotely from underground bunkers.
For now, all eyes remain on Trump and his waning patience with a war he’s so far proven unable to stop.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump meet while they attend the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican on April 26, 2025.
Funeral diplomacy: World leaders push for peace in Rome
Has the pope’s funeral set the stage for peace in Ukraine? At the Vatican on Saturday, US President Donald Trump sat down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting the White House described as “very productive,” and which Zelensky said had the “potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.” Zelensky also met separately with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who later claimed that Ukraine was ready for an “unconditional ceasefire”and that it’s “now up to Russia to prove that it truly wants to end this war.”
Trump also threw the ball into Russia’s court – but it landed more like a grenade. After meeting Zelensky, the US President posted to Truth Social that he feared Russian President Vladimir Putin might have been “tapping” – aka, deceiving – him about his willingness to end the war. The evidence? Russia’s continued bombardment of Ukraine, including an attack Thursday that killed 12 people and injured 90. Trump suggested that now Putin must be “dealt with differently,” possibly through banking or secondary sanctions. At the same time, the US president claimed late Sunday that Ukraine was ready to yield Crimea – Zelensky said last week this was a nonstarter.
The response? Hours later, Russia launched a large-scale drone and airstrike assault across Ukraine, killing at least four people and injuring several others. Each country also targeted the other overnight with long-range attacks, though there were no immediate reports of casualties. Mediators are now urging the two sides to the table in what US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described as a “critical week” for resolving the conflict.
Oh and by the way. Though it had been known for some time,North Korea formally acknowledged on Sunday that it has been lending troops to the Russian cause. Separately, the Trump administration is reportedly looking to reopen talks with the North Korean regime, after Trump held a pair of talks with Kim Jong Un during his first term in office.A search and rescue operation is underway in the Sviatoshynskyi district after a massive overnight missile and drone attack by Russian troops, Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 24, 2025. At least eight people were killed in the strike, and 77 people sustained injuries.
Another setback for Russia-Ukraine peace talks
It’s all Big Smoke and no fire in London, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pulled out of Russia-Ukraine peace talks with a coalition of European leaders that were scheduled to take place in the British capital on Wednesday. The decision came right as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rebuffed the Americans’ peace plan that involved formally recognizing Crimea as Russian territory. US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who also canceled plans to be in London, is instead headed to Moscow for his fourth round of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Breaking overnight. Russia pounded Kyiv overnight with missiles and drone strikes, killing at least eight people and injuring dozens more. It was the heaviest attack on the Ukrainian capital since July. Zelensky was in South Africa when the bombs hit, but he will cut short the trip and return home early.
The Americans pile on the pressure. Rubio warned last week that the US will “move on” from peace talks if a deal wasn’t eminently “doable.” Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment on Wednesday. President Donald Trump pushed the Ukrainians to accept the peace deal on Wednesday, while claiming that Russia was on the verge of accepting it.
Would the terms be enough for Russia? It’s unclear, but Putin reportedly offered to pause fighting on Tuesday in an apparent effort to reach a peace deal. On the other hand, the Russian leader’s past comments suggest he wants more.
“Putin last year said he also expects Ukraine to give up control over the parts of the claimed regions that Russia does not yet control,” said Alex Brideau, Russia director at Eurasia Group. “It may also demand new elections, on the assumption that it would lead a government that is friendlier to Russia.”
“Whether that’s realistic,” Brideau added, “Putin appears unwilling to deviate much from these demands.”
Military chaplain conducts Easter service for Ukrainian service members of the "Khartia" 13th Operational Brigade, near a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv region, Ukraine on April 20, 2025.
Ukraine-Russia ceasefire collapses amid US threats to quit peace process
An Easter ceasefire declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have collapsed, with both Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of violations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted to X Sunday afternoon that as of 8 p.m. local time, the Russian army had violated the ceasefire over 2,000 times. Conversely, Russia claimed Ukraine breached the ceasefire by launching hundreds of drone attacks. The 30-hour pause, which began Saturday at 6 p.m., followed intense fighting in the region of Kursk, as well as a 277-person prisoner swap earlier that day.
Could peace talks collapse as well? On Friday, US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed growing impatience with the pace of negotiations. After Rubio warned that the US might abandon the process within days if no progress is made, Trump remarked that if “for some reason” one of the countries made negotiations very difficult, “We’re just going to say you’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people, and we’re going to just take a pass.”
Administration officials are reportedly frustrated by Zelensky’s accusation that US envoy Steve Witkoff was “spreading Russian narratives” as well as Russia’s foot-dragging in negotiations. A US official said the parties would meet again in London this week. It is unclear what would happen if the US were to walk away, with Zelensky warning in a “60 Minutes” interview earlier this month that if Putin’s advance is not contained, the conflict “could escalate into a world war.”
Will Trump pressure Putin for a Ukraine ceasefire?
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump said ending the war in Ukraine would be easy. Again and again, he promised to end the fighting within “24 hours” of taking office. But as president, and as Russia drags its feet in ceasefire negotiations, Trump has walked that confidence back. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks at President Trump’s push for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine and what it will take to bring both sides to the negotiating table. The Trump administration has been engaging diplomatically with Moscow and making it clear to Kyiv that ongoing US support isn’t a guarantee.
The problem is that so far, the Kremlin seems uninterested in meaningful compromise. Instead, it’s been slow-walking negotiations and increasing its demands for concessions, all while advancing on the battlefield and targeting Ukraine’s population centers with drone strikes. Turns out, diplomacy is a lot more complicated than a Manhattan real estate deal: complex, slow, and full of people who don’t care about self-imposed deadlines. But there are signs that the president’s patience with Moscow is wearing thin. As Russia keeps stalling, will Trump start piling the pressure on Putin to make a ceasefire happen?
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Trump tariff is starting a US-China trade war
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Are the US and China rushing into a trade war?
Absolutely. I mean, if the Americans are actually going to impose tariffs of over 100% on Chinese exports of goods, it's essentially a trade embargo. That is a decoupling, and it's an unmanaged decoupling of US-China direct trade. Still an awful lot of goods from China to get to the United States through third countries. It's not clear all those will be cut off as the US negotiates with a lot of those countries. So people in America will still be buying Chinese goods, but inflation's going to go up. There's no question. And this is going to end up hurting the Chinese even more than it hurts the United States.
With an in-person nuclear talk set for Saturday, how confident is Trump that he can rein in Iran's nuclear program?
Well, it's interesting. What Trump is saying is that Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons. That's different from what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying, which is that they cannot have a nuclear program of any sort. Trump wants to rein the program in. He did announce that there are going to be direct talks between the US and Iran. Iran didn't quite say that. They said they're having indirect talks, but if they go well, they'll lead to direct, which is certainly a concession to the Americans. And it's interesting that Trump did that while the Israeli prime minister was in the Oval Office visiting him. Bibi thought he was coming over for tariff relief, and what he got was Trump saying that Erdogan's his bestie, that the Israelis should be really thankful they get billions from the US, the tariffs aren't going anywhere, and that there's going to be negotiations with Iran. Really interesting. I think Bibi's got to be unhappy on his flight back to Israel.
Zelensky claims Ukrainian troops have captured two Chinese nationals fighting for Russia. How does it change the dynamics of the war?
Not at all. It does reflect the fact that Ukraine is under an awful lot of pressure and is trying to do anything they can to stay in the headlines, stay relevant, keep the Americans engaged and focused. I'm not surprised that there are two Chinese nationals fighting in Ukraine. Doesn't mean they were sent by the Chinese PLA. I mean, there are American nationals that have been fighting for the Ukrainians and it's not because they're sort of involved with NATO or sent by the US government. So I really don't think there's any there, but important enough for you to ask question. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
President Donald Trump waves as he walks before departing for Florida from the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on March 28, 2025.
Trump scolds Putin over Ukraine after Moscow greenlights his ambitions for Greenland
Is the bloom off the bromance between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin? On Sunday, Trump took Putin to task over Russia’s foot-dragging on a ceasefire in Ukraine and threatened to tariff Russian oil and impose more sanctions on the country.
“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault ... I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said. “That would be, that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States … There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.” So far, there’s been no reaction from the Kremlin, but Trump said he would be talking with Putin this week.
A Greenland connection? Trump’s comments came a day after he reaffirmed his interest in acquiring Greenland for reasons of American and international security – something that Putin seems just fine with. At an Arctic policy forum in Murmansk on Thursday, Putin expounded on the “historical roots” of America’s interest in the island and said it was a matter that did not concern Russia.
But it may concern Ukraine. In the same speech, Putin said he would support a UN-led administration in Ukraine to hold new elections. And Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s envoy for foreign investment and economic cooperation, said that while Moscow is open for investment cooperation in the Arctic with the US, “before deals can be done the war in Ukraine needs to end.”