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Trump shifts on Russia: From carrots to sticks in Ukraine war
For years, US policy toward Russia’s war in Ukraine has swung between extremes. Under Biden, “all stick, no carrot.” Under Trump, “all carrot, no stick.” Ian Bremmer says both approaches failed to change Vladimir Putin’s calculus.
What’s different now? Trump himself admits his personal diplomacy with Putin has failed—a rare concession. Instead, he’s pushing oil pressure: urging Hungary, Turkey, and India to cut Russian crude purchases, and exploring deals with Ukraine on drones and long-range missiles.
“The US is closer today to the Ukrainian and European position than Trump was months ago,” Ian notes. “That’s a shift worth watching.”
Russia-Ukraine war escalation
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer analyzes how the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on with no sign of winding down any time soon.
Moscow has intensified strikes, hitting Ukraine’s most important government buildings. Ukraine, meanwhile, is expanding missile capabilities alongside growth in drone production.
Still, the front lines remain largely static.“Over time, the ability of the Ukrainians to continue to muster the fighting force…is deteriorating,” Ian warns. He add that it leaves Putin convinced “the longer they engage in this war, the less capable the Ukrainians will be… and that means that Russia's going to be in a better position to demand outcomes in terms that they want.”
The risk extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. With Trump’s Russia policy faltering and China offering Putin diplomatic support, Ian cautions the conflict is “increasingly not just a proxy war, but a direct hybrid war,” raising the danger of escalation in unpredictable ways.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia, on September 4, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Putin’s threat against foreign troops, Thailand has another new PM, Report emerges of failed US mission in North Korea
Putin warns foreign troops in Ukraine would be “legitimate targets”
A day after France and 25 allies pledged to send a “reassurance force” to Ukraine once a ceasefire takes hold, Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the idea and warned any foreign troops would be fair game for Russian attacks. Paris insists the force would deter new aggression, not fight Russia directly, but Moscow sees it as escalation – insinuating that the troops could be a tripwire for World War III. Russia is trying to shape the terms of any future peace, even as its offensive grinds on.
Thailand picks new PM, but crisis far from over
Thailand’s parliament has chosen Anutin Charnvirakul, a cannabis-crusading conservative, as its third prime minister in two years, after the Constitutional Court ousted Paetongtarn Shinawatra last week. Anutin’s small Bhumjaithai party secured power with backing from the progressive People’s Party, but only on condition that new elections be held within four months. Paetongtarn’s removal stemmed from a leaked call with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen over a border dispute, a scandal that fractured her coalition. Chronic political instability in Bangkok doesn’t just undermine democracy, it complicates relations with Cambodia, where lingering border tensions could flare without steady leadership.
Report emerges of aborted Trump-backed Navy SEAL mission in North Korea
In 2019, Donald Trump became the first sitting US president to step into North Korea, and appeared to have a relatively warm meeting with Kim Jong Un. Behind the scenes, though, he was greenlighting a Navy SEAL operation that same year to plant a wire on Kim, the New York Times reported on Friday. It was all part of the US’s decades-long effort to limit North Korea’s nuclear activity. The mission involved sending US troops onto North Korean soil, an incredibly risky move. When the troops arrived on the northern part of the Korean Peninsula, though, a North Korean boat was circling the area. The SEALs killed all the people on that ship, then aborted the mission.
Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting unlikely
"From the European point of view, [it was] pretty disastrous,” Bildt says of Alaska, where Trump "was agreeing with Putin" and hopes for a ceasefire “collapsed.”
The Washington talks brought some relief. With Zelensky and seven European leaders present, Bildt notes “that prevented the worst from happening.” Still, Trump dismissed European calls for a ceasefire and pushed for direct talks between Zelensky and Putin. A plan that Bildt calls unrealistic.
Zelensky, Trump, and NATO: A united front on Ukraine?
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down Zelensky’s latest trip to Washington, this time joined by a united front of European leaders.
Ian explains why this visit is such a sharp contrast from February, when Zelensky came to the White House alone and left with little to show for it. Today, he arrives alongside key allies from the UK, Germany, France, Finland, Italy, EU and NATO leadership, a powerful symbol that Europe is stepping up.
Europe’s role in supporting Ukraine has shifted dramatically. As Ian notes, European military and financial aid to Kyiv now outpaces that of the United States, giving Europe greater leverage in shaping the war’s future. That includes discussions of “near Article 5” guarantees for Ukraine, signaling long-term security commitments even without NATO membership.
The meeting also highlights the growing importance of maintaining a unified transatlantic stance. While Putin continues to resist any ceasefire, the presence of Europe’s top leaders in Washington underscores that NATO is stronger and more coordinated than it was just months ago.
The key question now: Will Trump remain aligned with Europe’s position — or leave Putin more room to maneuver?
The Alyaska summit
Putin and Trump get to yes. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more PUPPET REGIME here!
Xi wins prizes!!!!!
There's levels to this. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more PUPPET REGIME here!
Trump and Putin's Alaska showdown is all about oil
Trump and Putin are heading to Alaska this Friday for a summit to end the war in Ukraine, but both leaders will have the price of oil very much on their minds, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew in the first episode of The Debrief.
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- What We’re Watching: Trump to meet Putin in Alaska, Mali’s military arrests own soldiers, China arrests US-friendly diplomat ›
- Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss Ukraine ›
- In Alaska, the clock favors Putin - GZERO Media ›