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Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa looks on as his wife Lavinia Valbonesi (not pictured) takes part in a referendum that asks voters to support mostly security-related questions to fight rising violence, in Guayaquil, Ecuador April 21, 2024.
Ecuador votes to get tough on drugs
Ecuadorians showed overwhelming support for a government crackdown on drug-related violence in referendums this weekend in what could become a regional trend. Quito won support for joint police-military patrols, extradition of wanted criminals, tighter gun control, and tougher punishments for murder and drug trafficking, among other measures.
Cocaine boom: Ecuador had long maintained a reputation for tranquility despite being sandwiched between the major cocaine production hubs of Colombia and Peru. Coke is in the midst of a major resurgence, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, with seven straight years of growing use.
Consequently, traffickers are trying to ship more blow than ever to the US, and increasingly doing so through Ecuador’s conveniently located ports. With the drugs come weapons, money, and violence, tearing at the social fabric. In August of last year, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated after receiving death threats from gang leader Jose Adolfo Macias, who later escaped prison.
Iron fist: Ecuador is far from alone in experiencing a surge in drug violence, and leaders in Latin America are looking at Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s “mano dura” (iron fist) crackdown as an example.
“Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa took from the Bukele playbook in realizing that citizens are open to more draconian type measures,” says Eurasia Group associate Yael Sternberg, though she emphasized that the actual policies and problems are different.
If it pays off for Noboa like it has for Bukele, Sternberg says Chile is the country to watch next, with a growing crime issue and elections next year.
Oscar host Jimmy Kimmel appears on a billboard in Hollywood as preparations continue for the 96th Academy Awards Awards Los Angeles, California U.S., March 6, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Oscars go global, Congress does its job, Peru revives the Senate, Mauritania gets migration money
460,000,000,000: The House of Representatives on Wednesday passed a $460 billion spending bill, which is expected to clear the Senate in time to avoid a partial government shutdown this weekend. The bill keeps about a quarter of the government running through September, and legislators will now turn to the lion’s share of federal spending, which must be passed by March 23.
60: Peru will elect 60 new Senators after legislators passed a bill reviving the institution some 30 years after President Alberto Fujimori dissolved it and rewrote the constitution. Half the body will be elected by individual districts, while half will run nationwide races in elections scheduled for 2026.
210,000,000: The European Union has signed a €210 million ($229 million) deal with Mauritania that includes funds to prevent irregular migration from the Saharan nation into Europe. The money will help Mauritania patrol its waters for vessels carrying migrants to Spain’s Canary Islands and is part of a larger EU effort to work with African countries in tackling migration.
Ships are anchored near the construction site of a new Chinese mega port, in Chancay, Peru, as seen here in August 2023.
Hard Numbers: Chinese mega port to open in Peru, Bitcoin funds debut with a bang, Femicide alarm raised in Kenya, Germany’s East-West gender gaps
3.5 billion: A $3.5 billion Chinese state-owned port is set to open in Chancay, Peru, later this year, giving Beijing a direct gateway to Latin America’s bounteous natural resources – and cementing its status as the region’s largest trade partner. The port is expected to handle major volumes of copper and soy, and it could reduce shipping times to China by as much as two weeks for some of the region’s exporters.
1.9 billion: In the first few days after US regulators approved exchange-traded funds linked to Bitcoin, investors poured $1.9 billion into the new funds. The ETFs give people exposure to Bitcoin without having to actually own any. Some analysts think that as investor confidence in the funds grows, they could attract as much as $100 billion by year’s end.
4: At least four Kenyan women were killed in the first three weeks of the year, with at least two cases of them being targeted by gangs of men using dating apps to extort and rape their victims. The slayings follow a marked increase in femicide last year, in which at least 152 women were murdered (the real number is likely far higher according to experts), according to the NGO Femicide Count Kenya, which is calling on the government to investigate.
18: Women in Germany earn approximately 18% less than men, according to the latest data from the Federal Statistics Office, a stubborn plateau that has now held since 2020 after years of decreases. Experts largely attribute the persistent gap to women taking time away from work for childcare, which causes them to be overlooked for promotions or raises. Interestingly, the gap was less than half as broad in former East Germany, where women earned just 7% less than men.Peru's President Dina Boluarte
Political drama consumes Peru, per usual
Political turmoil – seemingly a national pastime in Peru – is again rearing its ugly head. Top prosecutor Patricia Benavides is blaming President Dina Boluarte – who came to power a year ago after President Pedro Castillo was removed from office by Congress – for a number of deaths at anti-government protests.
Benavides filed a constitutional complaint this week charging Boluarte and her prime minister with first-degree murder. The complaint was filed just hours after Benavides herself faced allegations of leading a corruption ring, which prompted the attorney general to fire the prosecutor who made the accusations. The president said she was astonished by the complaint against her and suggested Benavides was attempting to distract from the corruption allegations the prosecutor is facing.
An Afghan man works in a poppy field in Nangarhar province in 2016.
Hard Numbers: Afghans' fewer poppies, Trump's lead in key states, Lake Titicaca’s lower water level, New Delhi's smog, Japan's new frigates, Swifties' tents
95: Once the world’s top opium supplier, Afghanistan has slashed its cultivation of opium poppies by a whopping 95%, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. The drop follows a Taliban edict banning opium cultivation.
5: Former President Donald Trump is leading in five of six battleground states in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College. The numbers indicate that Biden is trailing among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. The president remains ahead in Wisconsin by the smallest of margins: two percentage points.
29: Over the past seven months, Lake Titicaca’s water level at the Peru-Bolivia border has fallen 29 inches to near-record lows. According to scientists, climate change is exacerbating this year’s El Nino phenomenon, layering heat on top of heat in South America’s largest freshwater lake.
471: In more bad environmental news, primary schools in New Delhi have been closed through Nov. 10 due to high pollution levels. On Sunday, the capital recorded an Air Quality Index reading of 471, a level considered hazardous.
12: The Japanese Ministry of Defense will acquire a total of 12 new Mogami class frigates over the next five years. The vessels will be used to defend the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, which are controlled by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan.
5: Die-hard Taylor Swift fans have been camped out in tents for 5 months for a chance at front-row seats to the singer’s Eras Tour concerts in Buenos Aires on Nov. 9, 10, and 11. Some Bad Blood has been reported between the tent dwellers and locals who say the Swifties should get jobs rather than spend days waiting for their idol – but despite the potentially Delicate situation, fans appear able to Shake it Off.
A police officer gets his shoes shined as he and fellow officers stand outside the prosecutor's office before the arrival of Peru's President Dina Boluarte, in Lima, Peru March 7, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Peru declares crime emergency, EU cuts Somalia aid, Chinese weddings dwindle, McCarthy tests his majority, oil prices surge
160,200: Peruvian President Dina Boluarte declared a state of emergency in two districts of the capital, Lima, and one in the northern city of Talara amid a devastating wave of violent crime. Lima police collected 160,200 crime reports last year, up 33% from 2021, part of a larger spike in violence in South America.
7 million: The European Union has suspended funding for the World Food Program’s operations in Somalia, which last year amounted to over $7 million, after a United Nations investigation discovered widespread theft by local power brokers, armed groups, and even aid workers themselves. The graft has macabre costs: Somalia barely avoided a famine last year amid a drought that killed 43,000 people — half of them children under 5.
6.8 million: Love is decidedly not in the air in China, as the country registered just 6.8 million weddings in 2022, a drop of some 800,000 compared to 2021 and the lowest figure on record. Meanwhile, even those who are tying the knot are more hesitant to have children, a factor contributing to China’s first population decline in 60 years, and a major long term headache for policy planners in Beijing.
4: US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is gambling that he can push through a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, despite fierce blowback from within his own GOP caucus. His margin is slim: he can afford to lose just only 4 GOP votes if he wants the measure to pass.
95: The price of oil hit $95 dollars per barrel, climbing some 26% for the quarter as Saudi Arabia and Russia have cut production to boost prices. Higher oil prices are likely to prop up inflation, complicating matters not only for households, but also for central bankers who had been hoping to ease off of interest rate hikes sooner than later.
A person wearing a protective suit sits in the Beijing Railway Station after China lifted its COVID-19 restrictions in Beijing, January 20, 2023.
Hard Numbers: China zeroes out zero, German tanks run low, Turkey jails a journalist, Greek train crash, police find ‘spiritual girlfriend’ in Peru
0 x 0: Remember China’s zero-Covid strategy? No you don’t, at least not if you’re the Chinese Communist Party, which is now aggressively zeroing out public mentions of the draconian lockdowns that kneecapped the country’s economy and provoked rare widespread protests against Xi Jinping. Here’s our own portrait of zero-Covid life from last spring.
62: Despite promising to give tanks to Kyiv, Germany and other NATO allies have struggled to rustle up enough of them — 62 to be precise — to fill two Ukrainian battalions worth. Part of the problem is that no one on the continent has planned for a major European land war in 30 years, so tanks, parts, and trainers are limited.
10: Turkey has sentenced a journalist to 10 months in prison for posting an unsubstantiated allegation that police officers and soldiers had sexually assaulted a young girl. This is the first jail term handed down under a new law meant to combat disinformation that critics fear will be used to stifle criticism of the government.
36: A train collision has killed at least 36 and injured dozens more near the city of Larissa in northern Greece. Railway employees reported that there were issues with electric coordination of traffic control, despite recent modernization of Greece’s railway system, which is operated by Italy’s state-owned railway company Ferrovie dello Stato Italiene.
1.5: The sentence you are about to read does not end the way you think it will: Police searching a delivery man who was acting drunk at a Peruvian archaeological site found in his backpack a 1.5-meter tall pre-hispanic mummy named “Juanita.” He said the mummy, which once belonged to his dad, lives with him as “a kind of spiritual girlfriend.” We love this LatAm remake of "Fin de Semana at Bernie’s.
A protester interacts with police during a demonstration against Peru's President Dina Boluarte in January 2023.
Chaos is the only winner in Peru
If it seems like Peru’s last few governments can’t catch a break, you’re not far off. Peruvian governments collapse like you fall asleep: slowly ... and then all at once.
Last year’s chaos under President Pedro Castillo showed us that, and the new Dina Boluarte administration will likely suffer a similar fate. Under Castillo, a string of efforts to oust him on the basis of “moral incapacity” and criminal investigations into him and members of his inner circle chipped slowly away at his mandate for a year and a half, only for it to entirely crumble in a matter of hours. In one day, Castillo attempted to illegally dissolve Congress, got ousted by Congress, was arrested and transferred to preventive detention, and was succeeded by his vice president.
It has been two months since the chaos of Dec. 7, and Peruvians are still in political limbo. According to polls and demonstrations, most people want Boluarte and the old Congress replaced through early elections, but this is a tough ask. While there are a few possible mechanisms to move up the next election (currently scheduled for April 2026), each comes at a cost.
The road to elections. One path is for Congress to approve a constitutional reform that would bring presidential and legislative elections forward, but this requires approval from 87 of 130 lawmakers in two consecutive legislatures or from 66 along with a public referendum. Either way, that’s a lot of votes for an extremely fragmented unicameral Congress, and lawmakers have been dragging their feet on this for weeks.
After protests first erupted in December, Congress approved a plan to move up general elections by two years to April 2024. But this still needed ratification, and with protests ongoing and the death toll rising, right-wing lawmakers presented an alternative proposal to hold elections by the end of 2023 instead. This was rejected after a long debate, with some leftist lawmakers conditioning support for an early vote on an entirely new constitution (a proposal for this was also rejected), while others remained dead set on finishing out their terms until July 2026.
Impeaching Boluarte is another possible route. According to the constitution, in her absence, the president of Congress would take office and immediately call for elections. Though 26 lawmakers signed onto a motion to oust her last month, it’s difficult to see this succeeding given lawmakers’ determination to cling to their posts for as long as they can.
Then there is the nuclear option: If Congress fails to reach an agreement to move elections up and protests escalate, Boluarte may have little choice but to resign, which would trigger early elections. While she has ruled this out several times, violent protests have now claimed 59 lives, including 47 civilians in clashes with armed forces, 11 in accidents related to road blockades, and one police officer who was burned alive in his patrol car. A presidential resignation on these grounds would not be out of the ordinary; back in 2020, interim President Manuel Merino resigned after just five days in office during which anti-government protests left two people dead.
No matter which of these avenues ultimately prompts early elections, social discontent is unlikely to subside until a vote is held. The country has had six presidents since the 2016 elections, making it tough to imagine a new administration would bring much respite. Public anger precedes the current crisis and was only exacerbated by the corruption scandals involving the entire political class, the effects of the pandemic, and the ongoing conflict.
What’s more, the next election won’t be the end of the story either. The electoral field will likely be extremely fragmented – around a dozen candidates could compete with very little support or the backing of an established party. Not only does this raise the odds of at least one wildcard entering the runoff, but that candidate could easily become more competitive and ultimately win if anti-incumbency sentiment and desperation prevail. This is precisely what led to the election of Castillo, his eventual downfall, and now the crisis where we find ourselves today. Barring the approval of meaningful reforms to strengthen the country’s political system, Peruvian voters face a bleak year ahead.
So, who can get Peru out of this mess? If you’re a close watcher of Latin America, you might ask that question with some degree of trepidation as you wonder if this crisis has left a vacuum big enough for someone risky to fill. The good news is that there doesn’t seem to be someone on the horizon within the country’s political (albeit near-decimated) establishment who can garner widespread support, let alone follow through on consolidating much power. But that leaves one wondering if Peru’s democratic checks meant to prevent such power consolidation (such as term limits, bans on consecutive re-election, and a “moral incapacity” clause to impeach a president) might ultimately lead to the erosion of the very institutions they seek to preserve.
To those seeking answers, I advise you to look southward. While the problems and potential solutions in Chile and Peru are not identical, Chile’s attempt at a societal and political reckoning through a rewrite of its constitution can give us a look into simply how long and bumpy the road to stability can be. For both, it will require a process of trial and error, and likely take place over years to come.
Yael Sternberg is a Latin America expert with Eurasia Group.