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Is Maduro behind a murder in Chile?
On Sunday, Chilean prosecutors said they had arrested a suspect in the murder of Ronald Ojeda, a 32-year-old Venezuelan ex-lieutenant and vocal critic of the government of President Nicolás Maduro, who was found dead in Santiago on Friday. Authorities said the lack of ransom demands and Ojeda's political history means he may have been abducted and killed by Venezuelan agents.
Ojeda had fled Caracas for Santiago in 2017, where he lived as a political refugee. He was charged with treason by the Venezuelan government in January, just weeks before he was abducted by four armed men on Feb. 21. His body was found encased in cement in a suitcase following a nine-day search. The detained suspect is a 17-year-old Venezuelan national.
While Venezuela denies involvement in Ojeda’s death, Maduro had already begun cracking down on political opponents in advance of this year’s elections, targeting key figures and organizations with accusations and arrests. In late January, Venezuela’s top court upheld an order from the Comptroller’s office barring popular opposition politician María Corina Machado from running for president, leading to accusations he was planning “a fraudulent election.”
In response, the US reimposed some sanctions that had been lifted in exchange for a promise of political reform and the release of political prisoners. Ojeda’s death may now lead Washington to reimpose additional sanctions on Venezuelan energy, mining, and secondary debt trading, despite the possible effect on global oil supplies and migration pressures.Hard Numbers: Crisis deepens in Sudan, Infernos rage in Chile, Moon is shrinking, Japan welcomes digital nomads, NJ scores World Cup final, Swift's lucky numbers
8,000,000: The United Nations reported this week that 10 months of violent conflict in Sudan have displaced nearly 8 million people and caused at least 12,000 deaths. The war between the rebel Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Army has left nearly half of Sudan's population in need of aid and the International Criminal Court investigating allegations of war crimes.
112: At least 112 people are dead and 190 missing in wildfires consuming the central regions of Chile, including the historic port city of Valparaiso. Arson is suspected to have ignited the blaze that burned over 106,255 acres during the intense heatwave sweeping South America.
150: Over millions of years, the moon has shrunk by 150 feet in diameter – and now, scientists are growing concerned. The shrinking, caused by the cooling of the moon's molten core, has led to the formation of thrust faults and “moonquakes” that could pose risks to future lunar missions, notably at its south pole.
10,000,000: If you’ve got a yen to work in Japan, this is your lucky day. To boost tourism, the country will be offering a “specified activities” visa to digital nomads from 49 countries and territories, including the self-employed. This will allow them to work remotely and stay for up to six months as long as they earn an annual income of 10 million yen, or $68,300. The program is expected to start in late March.
39: FIFA World Cup released the schedule and locations of games for the 2026 tournament, which will be played in Mexico, the US, and Canada. At 39 days, it will be the longest World Cup in history, culminating with a final to be played in “New York/New Jersey” (which means MetLife stadium in … New Jersey). Among other curiosities, close observers noted that there’s a chance of a knockout round match between the US and England on July 4 in Philadelphia. Get your 1776 on …
4: Last night, Taylor Swift became the first artist to win four Grammy awards for album of the year with "Midnights." The pop star, who now has 14 statues on the mantle, thanked her fans by announcing that her new album, “The Tortured Poets Department,” will drop on April 19. And for those wondering where she will be on Feb. 11, the Embassy of Japan in Washington, DC, tweeted on Friday that the singing superstar can “comfortably” get from her concert in Tokyo on Saturday to Las Vegas on Sunday in time to see her “guy on the Chiefs” play in the Super Bowl.
South American countries recall Israel envoys over Gaza
Colombia and Chile recalled their ambassadors to Israel, and Bolivia severed relations with the country entirely in reaction to the scorched-earth tactics used by Israeli forces in Gaza. All three governments fall under a left-wing tradition in Latin America that is heavily pro-Palestinian.
Bolivia has historically terrible relations with Israel, and the move is no surprise. Left-wing icon and former President Evo Morales first severed ties in 2009 after Israel invaded Gaza in late December 2008, and he praised sitting President (and protegé-turned-rival) Luis Arce’s decision.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro was formerly a member of the M-19 guerillas, a radical left-wing group that terrorized urban areas before demobilizing in 1991. He’s pushed the boundaries of decency in his condemnations of Israel, going so far as to liken the country’s actions to those of Hitler and the Third Reich.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric, less radical than Petro or Arce, has nevertheless been unequivocal in his criticism of Israel’s operations in Gaza while still condemning Hamas’ terrorist atrocities and pledging to work toward a two-state solution.
Colombia and Chile also have large ethnic Arab minorities, which tends to lend weight to discourse over Middle Eastern issues, but isn’t the proximate cause of the current spat. Up to 3.2 million Colombians are of Arab descent (ever heard of Shakira?). They’re mostly Lebanese but include around 100,000 people of Palestinian heritage.
Meanwhile, Chile is believed to have the largest Palestinian diaspora outside the Middle East, with up to 500,000 members. The community has tended to prosper, and remains visible in public life: The Club Deportivo Palestino plays in the colors of the Palestinian flag and has twice won Chile’s top-tier soccer league. Legislators of Palestinian descent have a caucus in Congress, and Chile has been an observer in the Arab League since 2005.
Hard Numbers: Britain’s bananas, Houthis' drones, Chile’s Constitution, Haitians’ exodus, Hong Kong’s democrats, Kenya’s visa-free approach
11.5: African plantations’ 11.5% share of the UK banana market could be in peril as London — freed from its former EU trade policy obligations — looks to lower tariffs even further on Latin American producers who already supply two-thirds of Britain’s bananas. The move, meant to contain banana costs amid high inflation, could put some 80,000 jobs in Africa at risk. Side note: A banana is actually a berry, and a raspberry is NOT actually a berry. We don’t make the rules, we just report them.
1,000: Missiles fired by Houthi forces in Yemen traveled over 1,000 miles in an attempt to strike Israel before Israeli air defenses destroyed them. The Iran-backed Houthis threatened to expand the war on Tuesday, saying they will continue to launch drone and missile attacks against the Jewish state.
33: Chile has a new proposed constitution after 33 of the 50 members of the drafting Constitutional Council voted in favor. It’s the second time in as many years Chile has tried for a new basic charter. The first time, a draft written by a left-dominated assembly failed a public plebiscite. The new draft, written by a more right-wing group, will go to a referendum in December. Polls show 34% of Chileans today would vote for it.
40,000: Rising violence in the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince has driven at least 40,000 more people from their homes since August, according to the UN. Since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, the country has descended into simultaneous political, economic, and humanitarian crises, as powerful gangs run rampant. See here for our look at the far-off country that wants to fight Haiti’s gangs directly.
29: For the first time in the 29 years since it was founded, Hong Kong’s pro-democracy party will not be allowed to participate in upcoming local elections. The democratic party was unable to surmount new, higher hurdles to registration that have come into effect since mainland China cracked down on the once-democratic city-state in 2020.
4: Kenya has become the fourth African Union country to lift visa requirements for African nationals as part of an effort to remove travel barriers between countries. Visa requirements and high airfares have inhibited inter-African travel, but with e-visas doubling since 2016 and many countries granting visas upon arrival, Kenyan President Ruto’s hope that people on the continent “should not be locked in borders in Europe and also be locked in borders in Africa” is coming to fruition. Also, is that a subtle dig at the supposedly border-free Schengen Area, Ruto?
Chile’s constitutional efforts look doomed, again
Chile is in the tortuous process of drafting a new constitution to replace one drafted by its former military dictator. A new draft reads like a partisan wishlist – just like the left-leaning document voters rejected last year – but this time the far-right holds the pen.
On Wednesday, the body attempting to hammer out a new constitution for Chile submitted its official proposals, which will now be reviewed by an expert panel. The draft limits the rights of workers to strike, guarantees to swiftly expel undocumented migrants, curbs abortion rights, and includes provisions supporting private pensions, schools, and healthcare systems.
It’s far from the moderate document Chilean President Gabriel Boric hoped would emerge from this second bite at the chirimoya.
Some background: In 2019, famously stable Chile was rocked by a series of protests known as the estallido social (roughly, “social outburst”), of which a key demand was a new constitution to replace the one authored by the military junta of Gen. Augusto Pinochet in 1980.
In 2020, Boric — then just a lower-house member — played a key role in organizing the plebiscite in which an astounding 80% of Chileans voted in favor of writing a new constitution. It catapulted him to national fame, and in March 2022, the presidency.
But the first constitutional convention became bogged down in ideology, producing an ambitious and left-leaning draft that spooked middle-class Chileans. Voters roundly rejected it last September, but Boric didn’t feel he could just let the matter die. He attempted to continue the overhaul, but with a process supervised by Congressionally appointed experts to tamp down ideology.
It didn’t work. Boric’s left-leaning coalition took just 17 of the 51 seats in the constitutional assembly after May 2023 elections. Concerned by rising crime and a sluggish economy, voters elected the far-right Republicans to 22 seats, and they easily dominated the assembly in a supermajoritarian coalition alongside conventional right-wing parties.
But Chileans don’t appear happy with the prospect of a right-wing constitution either. Just 24% of voters plan to vote for the draft constitution so far.
The constitutional assembly will have a final chance to make changes after receiving expert comments, opening a slim chance for moderation before the plebiscite in December. Should Chileans reject this draft, they’ll be stuck with the Pinochet version, as Boric has made clear he’s now done with constitutional conventions.
The constitutional reform process has dominated political discourse for four years, while ordinary Chileans dealt with COVID-19, economic instability, and spiking crime and violence. Who will be satisfied if it all comes to naught?Hard Numbers: Chile’s Pinochet reckoning, Japan’s beefed up defense budget, US’ Haiti evacuation warning, lemonade for Lahaina, US Capitol riot conviction
1,469: Chilean President Gabriel Boric has enacted a national search plan to find the remains of 1,469 people who disappeared (and became known as desaparecidos) during the dictatorship of Gen. Augusto Pinochet. This comes as the country marks 50 years since the coup that led to Pinochet’s 16-year dictatorship. So far, the remains of just 307 bodies have been found.
13: The Japanese government is doubling down on efforts to bolster its defense capabilities, proposing a 13% annual increase in its defense budget for 2024-2025. This is in line with Tokyo’s plan to boost its defense spending to 2% of GDP – up from a current cap of 1% – as it grapples with increased threats from China, which Tokyo has called its “greatest strategic challenge.”
277: The US has called on Americans to leave Haiti “as soon as possible” due to the deteriorating security situation, stemming from increased gang turf wars since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse two years ago. So far this year, 277 people have been kidnapped, many of whose whereabouts remain unknown, according to the UN.
17,000: Eddie, a 5-year old kid from Seattle, has raised a whopping $17,000 for the community of Lahaina – recently destroyed by wildfires that swept the Hawaiian island of Maui – from selling lemonade at a stand outside his home. Eddie was on a family trip on Hawaii’s Big Island when the recent fires hit.
17: A leader of the far-right Proud Boys has been sentenced to 17 years in prison for his role in the US Capitol riot. Joe Biggs, a US army veteran, was given one of the longest sentences handed down so far for the Jan. 6 riot after being convicted in May of a number of charges, including seditious conspiracy.
Second time the charm for new Chilean constitution?
Chileans will try again this year to agree on a new constitution to replace the one drafted during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. A substantial share of the population has long wanted to jettison the Pinochet-era charter – though it has undergone significant changes over the years – and the issue became a rallying cry for the massive demonstrations that rocked the country in 2019. Yet the first attempt to do so failed when voters decisively rejected in last September’s referendum a new draft that was seen by many as moving the country too far to the left.
As the Congress-appointed expert committee prepares to start work on a new version on March 6, we asked Eurasia Group expert Luciano Sigalov what to expect from Chile’s second attempt to rewrite its constitution.
What are the next steps in the process?
The 24-member expert committee is tasked with producing a preliminary draft of a new constitution by June 6. The body comprises respected academics, former officials, and advisers to political parties; there are roughly an equal number of figures chosen by center-left and center-right parties. Separately, elections will be held for a new constitutional council on May 7, with compulsory voting. The council will start its work on a final draft of the new charter on June 7, using the preliminary version prepared by the expert committee. Supervising the whole process is a 14-member technical committee composed of legal specialists chosen by congress. It is charged with preserving core aspects of the country’s democratic system including a bicameral legislature and central bank independence. The process is scheduled to produce a new charter by Nov. 7. A ratification plebiscite, also featuring compulsory voting, will be held on Dec. 17.
What lessons were learned from the failure of the last one?
Quite a few, as is evident in the changes made to the constitutional process. The expert and technical committees represent new guardrails put in place to produce a more consensus-driven and rigorous document. Parts of the new constitution presented to voters in last September’s referendum seemed hastily cobbled together, as underscored by a commitment by its drafters to continue tweaking it had it won approval. In addition, articles in the new charter will require the approval of a three-fifths majority of the constitutional council, rather than the two-thirds previously. And limits will be placed on the participation of independents, who advanced radical proposals the first time around. Lastly, the drafting period this time will be shorter to try to prevent voter fatigue with the process.
Why is a new constitution so important for Chile?
Replacing the Pinochet-era constitution would be an important milestone for Chilean democracy and a big step forward in the political transition sparked by the 2019 protests. The country-wide, months-long demonstrations developed into the country’s most acute social and political crisis in years. Even though a new charter would not meet long-held demands to enhance the social safety net and provision of public services overnight, it would provide a more favorable framework to advance progressive reforms.
And what does it mean for President Gabriel Boric’s administration?
On the one hand, a new legal framework should make it easier for Boric to make his promised changes to healthcare and pension systems, which would expand the role of the state in providing these essential public services. On the other hand, it would represent an important symbolic victory for Boric, who has long been a leading advocate of the campaign to replace the Pinochet-era document. Last September’s rejection of the proposed rewrite was a damaging blow for his young administration (Boric took office last March).
So, what do you think – is the new charter likely to win approval?
A constitution that is more moderate and consensus-driven will certainly have better chances of approval. However, approval is far from guaranteed and will depend on its final shape and public sentiment as the 17 December plebiscite approaches. Chileans have shown they don’t like radical change, and growing discontent with the political class could sour people on the constitutional process. Although Chileans have long demanded a new charter, they seem to have grown tired of an effort that has lasted for more than three years.
What would be the consequences of another failed process?
A second failed attempt to rewrite the constitution during his administration would be another damaging blow for Boric. The political class would likely give up on trying to rewrite the constitution, at least for the foreseeable future, and the issue would become less of a priority for voters. That said, if the rejection is coupled with failed efforts to reform the pension system, a new round of protests could emerge.
Hard Numbers: EU energy tax, Lebanese bank 'hold-up,' Russian election meddling, Chile-Ecuador soccer drama
140 billion: The EU hopes to raise 140 billion euros with its proposed windfall tax on energy companies that don’t burn natural gas but have made a killing from sky-high electricity costs driven by gas. Brussels would use the money to pay for consumer subsidies such as an EU-wide price cap on gas. The bloc has notably not followed through on talk of capping Russian gas prices.
13,000: Fed up with government limits on cash withdrawals, a Lebanese woman “armed” with a toy gun stormed into a bank on Wednesday, taking $13,000 from her savings account to pay for her sister's cancer treatment. She has become a social media star for pushing back against the privations ordinary Lebanese face while politicians fail to agree on an IMF deal to revive the country's battered economy.
300 million: The US State Department says Russia has doled out at least $300 million to elected officials and political parties to meddle in elections in more than 20 countries since 2014. It alleges that the Kremlin pays in cash or crypto, uses cutouts like shell companies to hide the origin of the donations, and, in one case, paid out millions to an Asian presidential candidate.
8: On Thursday, global soccer governing body FIFA will rule on Chile’s final appeal to replace Ecuador in this year’s Qatar World Cup because it turns out right-back Byron Castillo — who played eight out of Ecuador's 18 qualifying matches — is actually ... Colombian. This could get political because soccer is a very big deal in Latin America: in 1969, it triggered a brief war between El Salvador and Honduras.