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FILE PHOTO: Afghan women walk after the recent earthquake in the district of Zinda Jan, in Herat, Afghanistan October 10, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Iran suspected of killing Afghan migrants, Meta busts lunch scheme, Venezuela jails more foreigners, US and NATO mark a decade of fighting ISIS
2 million: The United Nations has called for an investigation into reports that Iran’s security forces opened fire last weekend on roughly 200 Afghan migrants who had entered the country illegally, killing an unknown number of them. Iran has threatened to deport as many as 2 million undocumented Afghan migrants who live in the country as refugees from decades of war and famine in their home country.
25: There’s no free lunch, they say – but if there were, you certainly shouldn’t use the money to buy acne treatment pads, wine glasses, or laundry detergent. Meta has fired around two dozen employees in its Los Angeles office after they were caught using the company’s $25 meal allowances to purchase household items.
5: Venezuela has arrested five foreigners, including three Americans, on charges of terrorism. Since winning a heavily disputed election this summer, President Nicolas Maduro has cracked down on the opposition, accusing it of collaborating with foreign intelligence operatives. The recent arrests bring to 12 the number of foreigners detained in Venezuela.
10: The US and NATO allies on Thursday marked 10 years since the start of their campaign to defeat Islamic State, often referred to as “ISIS.” On the plus side, the terror organization was rooted out of its modern “caliphate” strongholds in Syria and Iraq. On the minus side, it has shown a growing presence and capability in the Sahel, where some local governments are pushing out Western forces, and Central Asia, where Islamic State is at war with the Taliban in Afghanistan and has managed to carry out attacks in Russia.
Carolina Gonzalez, daughter of Venezuela's presidential opposition candidate in the recent election Edmundo Gonzalez, leaves the Torrejon de Ardoz Air Force Base, outside Madrid, Spain, September 8, 2024.
Opposition leader flees Venezuela, Argentina heads to ICC
Venezuelan opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez fled to Madrid on a Spanish military aircraft Sunday, having spent a month in hiding following the country’swidely discredited July 28 election in which President Nicolas Maduro claimed a dubious victory.
Spain offered Gonzalez asylum after Venezuelan prosecutors sought his arrest Monday for conspiracy and criminal association, which carry a possible 30-year prison sentence. The charges stem from the uploading of voting records showing that Gonzalez, and not Maduro, won the election by nearly 70%.
Gonzalez was a stand-in for opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who had been barred from running. His departure is the latest blow to the Venezuelan opposition: Since the vote, 2,400 protesters and four prominent opposition politicians have been arrested, and Maduro recently appointed hardliner Diosdado Cabello, who called Gonzalez“a coup-mongering “rat” as interior minister.
The election shenanigans are also causing tension with Argentina. Late Friday,Venezuelan security forces surrounded the Argentinian embassy in Caracas, where six opposition workers have been holed up since March. The following day, Venezuelarevoked permission for Brazil to manage the embassy, as it had been doing since the expulsion of Argentinian diplomats earlier this year.The announcement came hours after Argentina announced thaton Monday it would ask the International Criminal Court to arrest Maduro on charges of crimes against humanity.
We’ll be watching how the court reacts – and whether Maduro cracks down further.
A demonstrator looks on during a protest against election results that awarded Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro with a third term, in Caracas, Venezuela, August 3, 2024.
Will Maduro yield amid protests and calls for transparency?
Seven EU member states on Sunday demanded that the Venezuelan government publish the electoral rolls to settle last weekend’s heavily disputed election, and the US and Argentina have taken the lead in recognizing opposition candidate Edmundo González as president. Thousands of Venezuelans have put their lives and freedom at risk to protest President Nicolás Maduro’s claimed electoral victory this past week,and the regime has arrested hundreds and deployed armed paramilitaries to intimidate them.
Human Rights Watch reports that 17 people have died since protests broke out last Monday.
Gonzalez is in hiding to protect his well-being. But Maria Corina Machado, a fellow opposition leader who was barred from running, held a defiant rally on Saturday to galvanize the demonstrators. “After six days of brutal repression, they thought they were going to silence us, intimidate or paralyze us,” she said. “The presence of every one of you here today represents the best of Venezuela.”
Her coalition collected electoral tally sheets from 80% of the precincts, and they showed a landslide victory for the opposition, with 6.89 million votes for Gonzalez and 3.13 million for Maduro. Venezuela’s government claimed Maduro won 6.4 million votes to Gonzalez’s 5.3 million.
What happens now? Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are leading diplomatic efforts to set up an impartial audit of the results, and they can count on wide backing in the Americas and Europe. We’re watching how they apply pressure this week, and whether Caracas might make agreeable noises, if only to try to calm the furor in the streets.
A Venezuelan opposition supporter reacts after the results of the presidential election, outside Venezuela's Embassy in Mexico City, Mexico, July 28, 2024.
Maduro declares victory in Venezuela, opposition cries fraud
Venezuela’s strongman President Nicolás Maduro declared victory in the country’s hotly contested election on Monday, claiming to have won 51% of the vote despite independent exit polls showing a landslide for the opposition. Maria Corina Machado, Maduro’s chief rival, whom he banned from standing, said data collected by volunteers in polling places showed her candidate, Edmundo González, trouncing Maduro with 70% of the vote.
Election day. People began lining up at 3 a.m. in some parts of the capital Caracas on Sunday, anxious to cast their ballots in what many saw as their last best chance to restore the democratic process in Venezuela.
Media reports were tightly controlled, but some voters told CNN Español that they faced intimidation by militants. Citizens who attempted to enter government buildings to observe vote counting found themselves blocked by men on motorcycles donning red clothing and shouting pro-Maduro slogans.
What happens now? Machado said the opposition would fight to “defend the truth” and called on the international community to reject the results, but she stopped short of calling for protests. The presidents of Peru, Chile, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Argentina, and Uruguay all condemned or cast doubt on Maduro’s claimed victory, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for official vote tabulations to be published.
We are watching how Venezuelan voters react, and whether the international community can heap pressure on the Maduro regime — particularly given his dark warnings of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he is forced from office.
For more on Venezuela’s election, check out GZERO’s Viewpoint interview with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targowhere.Venezuelans gather to demonstrate during Venezuela's election voting day in Bogota, Colombia, July 28, 2024.
Venezuelans head to the polls as Maduro warns of a “bloodbath”
Venezuelans are voting in make-or-break elections as President Nicolás Madurotrails behind opposition leader Edmundo González by up to 30 percentage points in some polls. González – a retired diplomat who stepped in after the most popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was barred – might be the country’s best chance to restore democracy.
The background: Maduro’s 11 years in power have been marred with economic instability so severe as to cause mass malnutrition, violent political crackdowns, and America’s worst migration crisis in history. Over 7 million Venezuelans have fled repression and starvation since 2015. Maduro, currently under investigation by the ICC for alleged crimes against humanity, has led Venezuela to “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century” according to the IMF.
How has he stayed in power? In past elections, Maduro has kept the crown by barring and jailing challengers – and using his thugs to intimidate voters. His actions have been met by US sanctions, and the last election was deemed illegitimate by the US, Canada, and 14 other countries.
Polls show an undeniable truth Maduro seems unwilling to accept: He cannot beat González in a free and fair election. This leaves Maduro – who most analysts presume will resist a peaceful transition of power – two options: mass electoral fraud and political crackdowns or making good on his warnings of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he loses. So far at least, the government has not reported any unrest at polling places.
For more on Venezuela’s election, check out GZERO’s Viewpoint interview with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targowhere.People are carrying a banner with political phrases during a rally in support of Nicolas Maduro's campaign in San Cristobal, Venezuela, on July 10, 2024.
Viewpoint: How far will Venezuela’s leader go to retain power?
As Venezuelans prepare to head for the polls on July 28, President Nicolas Maduro is pulling out all the stops to secure a third term in office and extend the Chavismo political movement’s 25-year grip on power. Chosen by the movement’s founder Hugo Chavez to succeed him as president, Maduro first won election in 2013 and has grown steadily more authoritarian.
Though Maduro pledged the coming election would be free and fair under the terms of the Norway-brokered “Barbados Agreement,” he has already reneged on some of its key terms. The agreement represents the latest in a series of attempts by the US and Latin American and European countries to encourage greater democratic opening in Venezuela.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targow what to expect from this weekend’s vote.
Do you think Maduro will do whatever it takes to ensure he remains in office?
It’s pretty clear at this point that Maduro is going to hold this election on his own terms. We’ve seen him bar the participation of the winner of the opposition primary, Maria Corina Machado, and her chosen successor, Corina Yoris. He has also taken steps to limit both credible electoral observation, including that of the EU, and voting by opposition supporters such as Venezuelans living abroad. All of these moves represent a violation of the Barbados Agreement.
On election day, I think the regime is hoping it can rely on various measures to suppress opposition voter turnout and mobilize its own base so that it doesn’t have to resort to ballot tampering to win. But I do think it is willing to do whatever it takes. I don’t think Maduro is going anywhere.
Would an opposition candidate likely win a fair election, and if so, why?
Yes, absolutely. What we’re seeing from credible polls is that Edmundo Gonzalez, the new unified opposition candidate, has an advantage of between 20 and 30 percentage points over Maduro. Maduro has been in power for 11 years and has overseen a substantial deterioration of economic conditions, the result of government mismanagement exacerbated by US sanctions aimed at forcing democratic reforms. Though conditions are finally stabilizing, multiple years of deep economic contraction have triggered massive migration outflows. About 7 million Venezuelans are living abroad today.
What’s more, this is the first presidential election since 2013 that the main opposition forces are all participating and backing a single candidate, which is one of the reasons Gonzalez is polling so well.
What is the likelihood of protests or violence around the election?
I think some level of violence or instability related to the vote could manifest in two ways, and I would say that both of them are somewhat likely. The first would be violence on election day as part of a repertoire of measures to discourage support for the opposition that includes moving polling stations from opposition strongholds or blocking their entrances and deploying the so-called colectivos (regime-affiliated criminal groups) to attack voters.
The second is the potential for unrest after the election, assuming that Maduro claims victory. There’s been a groundswell of support for the opposition, and its voters would probably feel like the election had been stolen. That said, recent polls suggest that voter appetite to take to the streets has waned, probably because of the regime’s violent repression of previous anti-government protests.
How do you think the international community is likely to react if Maduro wins what appears to be a fraudulent election?
This would be a difficult situation for the US, the EU, and some of Maduro’s key allies in the region such as Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro. These regional leaders were trying to welcome Maduro back into the fold after the failed Juan Guaido experiment [the former head of Venezuela’s National Assembly claimed in 2019 to be the country’s legitimate president – and won recognition from many countries around the world – but then failed to consolidate his domestic support]. I would be surprised if they fully abandon Maduro and break off ties with him again.
The EU likewise has a bias toward normalization, though its electoral observation mission was uninvited by the regime, and if there is a lot of fraud, it will be forced to condemn the results. In the US, President Joe Biden’s administration also prefers normalization and engagement but will take its cues from how the opposition characterizes the elections. Regardless, I don’t see the US, at least under the Biden administration, going back to what they called the “maximum pressure” sanctions regime that we had in place up until September 2022.
What do you think the continuance of the Maduro regime means for the quality of life in Venezuela?
As I mentioned, the economic situation has stabilized somewhat over the last couple of years. Ironically, in response to the US sanctions, Maduro has become much more pragmatic in terms of economic policy. He has allowed for a dollarization of the economy and stopped printing money, so inflation has really come down. Still, there is a deep divide between those who have access to dollars and can afford to pay for imported goods and those who don’t. So, it’s no longer the case that the shelves in stores are empty, but you have to have the money to pay for them.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
FILE PHOTO: Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro attends to a military event in Caracas, Venezuela August 4, 2018.
Is Maduro behind a murder in Chile?
On Sunday, Chilean prosecutors said they had arrested a suspect in the murder of Ronald Ojeda, a 32-year-old Venezuelan ex-lieutenant and vocal critic of the government of President Nicolás Maduro, who was found dead in Santiago on Friday. Authorities said the lack of ransom demands and Ojeda's political history means he may have been abducted and killed by Venezuelan agents.
Ojeda had fled Caracas for Santiago in 2017, where he lived as a political refugee. He was charged with treason by the Venezuelan government in January, just weeks before he was abducted by four armed men on Feb. 21. His body was found encased in cement in a suitcase following a nine-day search. The detained suspect is a 17-year-old Venezuelan national.
While Venezuela denies involvement in Ojeda’s death, Maduro had already begun cracking down on political opponents in advance of this year’s elections, targeting key figures and organizations with accusations and arrests. In late January, Venezuela’s top court upheld an order from the Comptroller’s office barring popular opposition politician María Corina Machado from running for president, leading to accusations he was planning “a fraudulent election.”
In response, the US reimposed some sanctions that had been lifted in exchange for a promise of political reform and the release of political prisoners. Ojeda’s death may now lead Washington to reimpose additional sanctions on Venezuelan energy, mining, and secondary debt trading, despite the possible effect on global oil supplies and migration pressures.Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro addresses supporters at an event, in Caracas, Venezuela January 23, 2024.
Venezuela defies the US on elections
Maybe there was never a good enough carrot to get Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to hold a real election, but with his latest move, the “21st-century socialist” strongman seems willing to suffer the stick rather than face his voters.
Last week, his top court disqualified popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado ahead of presidential elections that must be held later this year. That move violated a 2023 deal with the US in which Washington loosened crippling sanctions on Venezuela’s lucrative oil sector in exchange for a promise to hold a free vote.
That deal aimed to nudge Maduro towards democracy, but also to help stabilize the economy in hopes of stemming a record-high tide of Venezuelan migrants streaming towards the U.S. Southern border.
But Maduro wants no part of Machado, who experts say would beat him in a fair vote, so he’s willing to risk those US sanctions again, says Venezuela expert Risa Grais-Targow at Eurasia Group. They’d force Venezuela to sell more of its oil at a discount to Asia, but Maduro will gladly take the cash flow hit rather than lose an election.
This puts the White House in a bind: Doing nothing makes Biden’s policy look like a failure, but slapping sanctions back isn’t a great option either. They won’t move Maduro on the democracy front, but they could potentially exacerbate the border crisis right as Biden heads into the homestretch of an election campaign where immigration is already a scorching issue.
Is a compromise possible? Maduro might be OK with a free election so long as he’s sure to win. If the move to disqualify Machado causes the opposition to split between people who boycott the election and those who don’t, he might stand a chance. The Biden administration seems keen to explore options – the oil sanctions won’t slap back on until April (in the meantime, Washington has rapped Maduro’s knuckles with sanctions on Venezuelan gold.)
One thing Biden doesn’t have to worry about as much as you’d think? Gas prices. Losing Venezuelan crude might hurt some US oil refiners, says Clayton Allen, a US expert at Eurasia Group, but “It’s not enough for Joe Sixpack to notice at the Circle K.”