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Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro reacts after shooting an arrow during a rally on the Day of Indigenous Resistance, his first public appearance after opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, in Caracas, Venezuela, on October 12, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Venezuela clamps down on dissidents, Democrats celebrate election successes, Leading economist warns of triple bubble
Venezuela’s Maduro turns the screws as Trump ponders regime change
Amid intensifying US attacks on alleged Venezuela-linked drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean, Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro is cracking down on dissent at home. The largest US military buildup in the Caribbean in decades has raised concerns that US President Donald Trump may seek to knock Maduro out of power altogether. Maduro — who remains deeply unpopular after evidently rigging last year’s presidential election — has deployed loyalist vigilantes to police dissent and arrested dozens more critics. (For more on this see our latest “Debrief” with Eurasia Group’s Venezuela expert Risa Grais-Targow here.)
Democrats celebrate a good election night
As Democrats plot a path back to power in next year’s midterms, last night’s local election results give them much to chew over. First, voters in California authorized a redistricting that gives Dems a shot to overturn five GOP-held seats. Second, centrist Democrats comfortably won the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, while voters in swing-state Pennsylvania re-elected three liberal state Supreme Court justices. A key factor in VA and NJ was that voters of color who had voted for Trump in 2024 swung back to the Democrats. Lastly, of course, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York mayoral race will intensify internal party debates about whether to double down on centrism or populism.
Leading economist warns of three big bubbles
Is the world economy about to take a bubble bath? The head of the World Economic Forum has warned of three potentially crippling financial market bubbles: in crypto, in AI, and in public debt. If any of the three bursts — that is, if a critical mass of investors think they are overvalued and start a mass sell 0ff – we could be in for a world of hurt. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have both recently warned of a coming market correction. The WEF comments came amid a brief selloff yesterday in tech stocks over concerns about over-investment in AI.
Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he?
President Trump reportedly hasn't yet decided whether or not to invade Venezuela. But the fact that a man who got elected on ending endless wars is even considering waging war in the Western hemisphere is remarkable. How did we get here, and what happens next? Eurasia Group's Risa Grais-Targow breaks it down in the latest episode of #TheDebrief
Trump's been cagey on whether or not the US will go to war with Venezuela, but would he? Here's how it could happen and why.
So here's the context. Trump has started taking the war on drugs literally. You've probably seen US strikes on boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying drugs, an issue that plays well with Trump's base in both red states and swing states and makes Democrats look weak. There's also concerns around migration flows, an issue that is very important for key advisors like Stephen Miller within the cabinet.
But this is about more than appearing tough on drugs and immigration. It's also about regime change. Ousting President Nicolas Maduro is unfinished business from Trump's first term and a key priority for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
There's also an element of psychological warfare here. You have a massive US military buildup just off the coast of Venezuela aimed at getting in Maduro's head, and it just might work.
Geopolitics are also key here. Trump is keen to show China that the US is strong in its backyard, Latin America, as we saw with his moves related to the Panama Canal earlier this year. He's also taking advantage of the fact that Maduro's typical allies, Russia, Iran, China, are either weak or distracted and are unlikely to come to his rescue. All of this suggests that the US may be readying for moves against Venezuela.
Obviously, US war with Venezuela would be a huge deal, but it's also about short-term political wins versus a long-term strategy, and that means that it could escalate very quickly.There's also competing interests within Trump's cabinet. For Stephen Miller, this is about testing the limits of presidential power while Rubio is more focused on toppling a leftist regime in the region that he sees as propping up other leftist regimes, including Cuba and Nicaragua.
Then there's Trump himself, who may or may not lose interest, especially if this is something that's not going to deliver a quick win.
So which way is this going to go? Here are a few things to look out for. The first is an escalation of "Maduro Must Go" rhetoric coming from the White House, something that we're just starting to see. The second is a broader campaign against cartels in the region that shifts the US focus to other countries like Mexico and Colombia.
Finally, there's strikes within Venezuelan territory itself, which could put the US on a clear path to escalation, at which point we may be past the point of no return. And unfortunately, the thing about a point of no return is that you don't always know you're there until you've passed it.
Is the US preparing to strike Venezuela?
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down escalating US actions toward Venezuela.
Ian explains why Venezuela isn’t making headlines, but should be. The Trump administration recently designated Venezuela’s powerful Tren de Aragua cartel a terrorist organization, directly tied Nicolás Maduro to another drug cartel, Cartel de los Soles, doubled the bounty on Maduro’s head to $50 million, and authorized the Pentagon to target cartels in Venezuela and Mexico.
Most strikingly, the US has deployed three guided missile destroyers and other ships to Venezuela’s coast, a clear show of force that suggests options beyond drug interdiction.
Military strikes are not inevitable, but Ian notes the dots are being connected. Any action would likely resemble past US strikes on Iran: a sudden, limited but heavy show of power, not a long war.
Still, labeling Maduro a narco-terrorist opens the door to broader moves against his regime, a possibility to watch closely in the coming weeks.
Venezuela's opposition leader: Maduro's regime "is not a conventional dictatorship
"This is not a conventional dictatorship. Venezuela has been turned into the criminal hub of the Americas." Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado warns that under Nicolás Maduro, the country has become a haven for drug cartels and terrorist groups. "Networks of smuggling, even women and children being used for prostitution—this is dramatic," she says, emphasizing that Venezuela’s deepening ties to transnational crime threaten the entire Western Hemisphere.
Machado argues that stopping Maduro requires more than diplomacy—it demands cutting off the regime’s illicit revenue streams. She points to the recent revocation of US oil sanctions relief as proof that international pressure is working. "That's precisely what's starting to happen right now," she notes, adding that fractures within Maduro’s power structure are emerging. But she insists more must be done: "Those that today torture, disappear, and kill Venezuelans must get it very clear that they will be held accountable." For Machado, the goal is not just to weaken Maduro but to push for a peaceful, democratic transition.
Watch full episode: Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Has China lost patience with Venezuela's Maduro regime?
China once poured untold billions into Venezuela’s oil industry, but opposition leader María Corina Machado says that era is over. “China was producing around 70,000 barrels a day in Venezuela in 2016. Today, that's less than 40,000,” she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. The reason? “China does not want to deal with a profoundly corrupt, inept tyranny such as Maduro. They know him very well.” She argues that fears of China stepping in to rescue Maduro are misplaced; Beijing has already learned its lesson.
For investors, Venezuela is a dead zone. “Would you lend to a country that ranks literally last in the world for rule of law?” Machado asks, citing the World Justice Project’s assessment of 142 nations. Despite holding the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s economy remains in ruins because, as she puts it, "you cannot develop resources under communism, crime, and dictatorship." But she insists that Venezuela is ready for change: “We know what we have to do in the first 100 days—guarantee security, restore basic services, and open markets.” The country, she says, is waiting for its chance to rebuild.
Watch full episode: Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters at a protest ahead of the Friday inauguration of President Nicolas Maduro for his third term, in Caracas, Venezuela January 9, 2025.
Venezuela briefly arrests opposition leader just ahead of Maduro inauguration
Regime forces violently detained Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as she left a rally in Caracas on Thursday, just one day before strongman President Nicolás Maduro was set to begin his third term. She was released hours later.
Machado had been in hiding for over 100 days but came out to galvanize protesters risking their lives to demonstrate against the illegitimate, autocratic government. Despite soldiers loyal to the regime manning checkpoints across the capital, thousands of citizens marched in response to the opposition’s calls for resistance. Moments before her motorcycle convoy came under gunfire, Machado led a crowd of supporters chanting, “We are not afraid!”
Her short detention could lead to further protests, but Maduro is determined to retain power for another six-year term and is set to be sworn in today. He has met past unrest with brutal violence, and we are watching for more clashes between authorities and protesters, though the government has detained many activists and opposition politicians in recent days. The government says it will also arrest Edmundo González, the man who independent audits show actually won last year’s election, if he attempts to return from exile in the Dominican Republic — which he has sworn to do today.
FILE PHOTO: Afghan women walk after the recent earthquake in the district of Zinda Jan, in Herat, Afghanistan October 10, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Iran suspected of killing Afghan migrants, Meta busts lunch scheme, Venezuela jails more foreigners, US and NATO mark a decade of fighting ISIS
2 million: The United Nations has called for an investigation into reports that Iran’s security forces opened fire last weekend on roughly 200 Afghan migrants who had entered the country illegally, killing an unknown number of them. Iran has threatened to deport as many as 2 million undocumented Afghan migrants who live in the country as refugees from decades of war and famine in their home country.
25: There’s no free lunch, they say – but if there were, you certainly shouldn’t use the money to buy acne treatment pads, wine glasses, or laundry detergent. Meta has fired around two dozen employees in its Los Angeles office after they were caught using the company’s $25 meal allowances to purchase household items.
5: Venezuela has arrested five foreigners, including three Americans, on charges of terrorism. Since winning a heavily disputed election this summer, President Nicolas Maduro has cracked down on the opposition, accusing it of collaborating with foreign intelligence operatives. The recent arrests bring to 12 the number of foreigners detained in Venezuela.
10: The US and NATO allies on Thursday marked 10 years since the start of their campaign to defeat Islamic State, often referred to as “ISIS.” On the plus side, the terror organization was rooted out of its modern “caliphate” strongholds in Syria and Iraq. On the minus side, it has shown a growing presence and capability in the Sahel, where some local governments are pushing out Western forces, and Central Asia, where Islamic State is at war with the Taliban in Afghanistan and has managed to carry out attacks in Russia.
Carolina Gonzalez, daughter of Venezuela's presidential opposition candidate in the recent election Edmundo Gonzalez, leaves the Torrejon de Ardoz Air Force Base, outside Madrid, Spain, September 8, 2024.
Opposition leader flees Venezuela, Argentina heads to ICC
Venezuelan opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez fled to Madrid on a Spanish military aircraft Sunday, having spent a month in hiding following the country’s widely discredited July 28 election in which President Nicolas Maduro claimed a dubious victory.
Spain offered Gonzalez asylum after Venezuelan prosecutors sought his arrest Monday for conspiracy and criminal association, which carry a possible 30-year prison sentence. The charges stem from the uploading of voting records showing that Gonzalez, and not Maduro, won the election by nearly 70%.
Gonzalez was a stand-in for opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who had been barred from running. His departure is the latest blow to the Venezuelan opposition: Since the vote, 2,400 protesters and four prominent opposition politicians have been arrested, and Maduro recently appointed hardliner Diosdado Cabello, who called Gonzalez “a coup-mongering “rat” as interior minister.
The election shenanigans are also causing tension with Argentina. Late Friday, Venezuelan security forces surrounded the Argentinian embassy in Caracas, where six opposition workers have been holed up since March. The following day, Venezuela revoked permission for Brazil to manage the embassy, as it had been doing since the expulsion of Argentinian diplomats earlier this year. The announcement came hours after Argentina announced that on Monday it would ask the International Criminal Court to arrest Maduro on charges of crimes against humanity.
We’ll be watching how the court reacts – and whether Maduro cracks down further.
- Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado says Maduro's days are numbered - GZERO Media ›
- Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro? - GZERO Media ›
- Venezuela's opposition leader: Maduro's regime "is not a conventional dictatorship - GZERO Media ›
- Q&A: Venezuela’s opposition leader on Trump, Maduro, and why the ballot box isn’t the answer this time - GZERO Media ›