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Trump’s America: A kleptocracy but not a police state
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: I want to talk about checks and balances in the US political system. I get so many questions about this of course, because the United States today is the principal driver of geopolitical uncertainty, of global economic uncertainty. And people want to understand, is this the end of globalization? Is it the end of US democracy?
Everyone has their knobs politically turned up to 11 on everything, and that's very undifferentiated. So, how do we think about this? I want to give you a few thoughts on what is and what isn't a permanent change. What is and what isn't a serious threat and concern. Particularly big picture on the nature of the US political system.
I've said a number of times that I consider the US to be by far the most kleptocratic and dysfunctional political system among all of the advanced industrial democracies. I've said that not just in the last few months, but for years now, and that predates Trump. Trump has sped up the kleptocratic impulses in the United States.
The second most powerful person in the White House on President Trump, at least for now with an official position, is also the wealthiest person on the planet who continues to own and run six companies. Obviously, it's kleptocratic. Trump is very much pay for play.
If you're a TikTok investor and you give him money, he flips his position on TikTok. Very direct, very dramatic, but the United States has been kleptocratic for decades. It is the country where if you have money, you can use it to gain access to power and that will get you outcomes you want. Whether it's a specific tax code or a specific regulation or lack thereof.
That is much more true in the US than it is in Canada or Germany or Japan or Australia or New Zealand, or the Nordics, any of the advanced industrial democracies, the rich democracies, right, which is the cohort that you look at when you think about the US political system.
And that's interesting because when Trump leans in on that kleptocracy, when he expands it it may make a number of business leaders and bankers uncomfortable. It's unseemly, but they're used to it. They know how that works. They already have their lobbyists and their pacts. They already have their comms teams, they've got their people on K Street lined up.
They already know what it means to pay for an inauguration and to get people that say they have access to the family of the administration and they can help you as a consequence. They're willing to spend money on that and to make favors for that, all of the offer internships for that, all of those things, right?
And as a consequence, you don't get pushback on that, right? If Trump is going to shake down a corporation or else, they'll pay. And that's true across the board. You don't see a lot of public courage as a consequence from the business environment in the US.
The US does not have a long-standing policy of authoritarianism. The US is not used to dictatorship. And so when Trump engages in things that feel like a direct threat to the rule of law on say the ability of law firms to conduct their core business, which is representing anyone vigorously, that deserves defense.
Yeah, a couple of firms will bend the knee, but there'll be a lot of internal pushback and most won't because that's something that is beyond the pale.
And I think the same thing is true about academic freedom. Is when the Trump administration says whether you like the politics or not, that they're going to cut off funding if you don't eschew some of the independence that you have exerted and you have as your right as you do as a public institution, as a university.
And that maybe they should take away your tax-free status, all that kind of thing. Then you see a couple of universities will bend the knee, but most won't. And there'll be very strong pushback on that.
And so what I think is happening is that the US is going to continue to become much more kleptocratic beyond Trump, and I don't see anything that's going to stop that. That is a serious problem long-term in terms of reputational capital for the United States, both domestically in attracting capital and also on the global stage.
But I also see significant pushback on authoritarian impulses, and I think it's far less likely that the US is slipping into dictatorship. And so when the Financial Times writes that the US is halfway towards becoming a police state, I say, "No, not at all."
The US may well be today the most unfree of advanced democracies, but it is not the most free of authoritarian states because it's not authoritarian. You still have an opposition party that you can vote for and that says whatever they want.
I don't feel in any way like I am potentially going to risk arrest or my liberties by virtue of saying to you exactly what I think about what's happening domestically, internationally. If that starts to stop, believe me, you're going to hear from me before you hear it from somebody else. So that's one point.
Second point is that for Trump to be successful in subverting the checks and balances on him, if he wants to win as a revolutionary president, he has to do two different things. The first is he has to actually erode those institutions, those norms, those values, he has to weaken them. But then he has to actually execute on being the most powerful.
Because if you want to live by the law of the jungle, you have to actually be the effective apex predator. And what we've seen is that Trump has been reasonably effective at not paying attention to rule of law norms.
Look at trade treaties, USMCA. He's completely abrogated by virtue of saying, "Nope, national security emergency, I'm just putting tariffs on." That's clearly not what the Mexicans and Canadians signed up for. He doesn't care. And he is doing that with reckless abandon in all sorts of different places domestically and around the world.
But to be the effective apex predator, you have to not only erode the norms and values, but then you have to actually perform. What we're seeing is that having a fight with literally everyone simultaneously, your adversaries and your allies internationally and domestically turns out to be really hard.
I mean, even the mighty lion doesn't go after an entire herd of wildebeests simultaneously. You pick off an injured one, a little one, maybe a juvie, right? And what Trump is finding out is that he's going after a herd of wildebeest and he's getting kicked in the head.
He's done that internationally with, let's put 145% tariffs on China, the second biggest, strongest, most powerful economy in the world. And by the way, with a political system that's much more capable of waiting out and taking pain than the Americans are, because it's an actual authoritarian regime with a multi-generational rule from a communist party that is very consolidated.
So the Chinese are saying, "Oh yeah, we'll hit you back." And now Trump is saying, "Uh-oh, maybe bad idea." And he's also seeing that, for example, with his decision to go after Fed Chief Jerome Powell. He said how horrible Powell is and, "I should fire him. I should get rid of him." And a few days later he said, "Well, I'm not going to fire Powell."
Well, it's not like Powell's done anything differently. He's not behaving in any way that Trump would want, but Trump has recognized that trying to kick Powell in the head is a really bad idea because the markets are throwing up all over it and the business community and other countries and his own advisors.
It's harder to get that feedback to Trump because he has a group of advisors, some of whom are very capable, some of whom are completely incompetent, but all of whom are far more loyal and therefore far less willing to give him information he does not like.
But the bigger the obvious failures are, the more clear it is that you can't fight all the wildebeest simultaneously the more that information is going to get through to Trump and we are seeing that start to happen.
So, in other words, I do see snapback functions that are constraining what Trump is trying to accomplish. They are not coming from rule of law. They're not coming from the established institutions, which turn out to be a lot weaker than a lot of people had hoped or believed.
But they are coming from other powerful forces domestically and internationally that are capable of standing up and saying, "No, we're not going to take that." And you all know courage is contagious. You suddenly see some big guns that are coming out and saying, "No, we're not going to take it," and that actually provides space for other people to do it too.
And so at the end of the day, leading by example really matters, especially when something's happening that is obviously deeply damaging to yourself, to your family, to your colleagues, to your business, to your country, and to the world. And I think that's playing out right now.
Don't call me an extraordinary, unrelenting optimist. It's not that I am an optimistic person by nature, but this is coming from analysis. I'm more than capable of telling you when I think things are going to hell and predicting things that I really don't want to have happen.
This, on the other hand, is something I would really like to see happen, which is effective checks and balances on unhinged decision-making and I am starting to see that some of that is playing out. That's it for me, and I hope everyone's doing well. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Venezuela's opposition leader: Maduro's regime "is not a conventional dictatorship
"This is not a conventional dictatorship. Venezuela has been turned into the criminal hub of the Americas." Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado warns that under Nicolás Maduro, the country has become a haven for drug cartels and terrorist groups. "Networks of smuggling, even women and children being used for prostitution—this is dramatic," she says, emphasizing that Venezuela’s deepening ties to transnational crime threaten the entire Western Hemisphere.
Machado argues that stopping Maduro requires more than diplomacy—it demands cutting off the regime’s illicit revenue streams. She points to the recent revocation of US oil sanctions relief as proof that international pressure is working. "That's precisely what's starting to happen right now," she notes, adding that fractures within Maduro’s power structure are emerging. But she insists more must be done: "Those that today torture, disappear, and kill Venezuelans must get it very clear that they will be held accountable." For Machado, the goal is not just to weaken Maduro but to push for a peaceful, democratic transition.
Watch full episode: Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Has China lost patience with Venezuela's Maduro regime?
China once poured untold billions into Venezuela’s oil industry, but opposition leader María Corina Machado says that era is over. “China was producing around 70,000 barrels a day in Venezuela in 2016. Today, that's less than 40,000,” she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. The reason? “China does not want to deal with a profoundly corrupt, inept tyranny such as Maduro. They know him very well.” She argues that fears of China stepping in to rescue Maduro are misplaced; Beijing has already learned its lesson.
For investors, Venezuela is a dead zone. “Would you lend to a country that ranks literally last in the world for rule of law?” Machado asks, citing the World Justice Project’s assessment of 142 nations. Despite holding the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s economy remains in ruins because, as she puts it, "you cannot develop resources under communism, crime, and dictatorship." But she insists that Venezuela is ready for change: “We know what we have to do in the first 100 days—guarantee security, restore basic services, and open markets.” The country, she says, is waiting for its chance to rebuild.
Watch full episode: Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro?
Venezuela stands at a crossroads. Amid fraud allegations and Nicolás Maduro’s controversial third term, opposition leader María Corina Machado fights from the shadows. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Machado about Venezuela’s future, America’s role, and why she believes Maduro’s grip on power is weaker than it seems. For Machado, it’s not just about toppling a dictator; it’s about rebuilding democracy in Venezuela from the ground up. The real question isn’t just how Maduro’s rule ends but what comes next.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, speaks to the media in December 2024.
Syria’s leader declared president, constitution scrapped
Syria’s de facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa was on Wednesday declared president by a group of top military commanders.
The current constitution was suspended, and al-Sharaa was authorized to form a “temporary” legislative council to govern during a transitional period before elections are held.
The duration of this “transitional period” has not been specified. Al-Sharaa, who led the campaign to topple the Assad regime two months ago, has previously suggested that writing a new constitution and holding elections could take between three and four years.
The big question: The move provides some clarity about the power structures that will govern Syria as it seeks to rebuild its economy and society after decades of dictatorship and more than a dozen years of civil war.
But it heightens the focus on al-Sharaa’s intentions. Skeptics have wondered about his commitment to establishing a pluralistic society in a country marked by sectarian and ethnic divisions. His background is, after all, as a jihadist fighter whose organization, the al-Qaida offshoot Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, remains on the US terrorism list.
In recent years, he has styled himself as a statesman, dropping his nom de guerre, swapping fatigues for suits, and calling for good government.
Now his power has been made official. How will he use it?
AI will upset democracies, dictatorships, and elections
There’s no mistaking it: Artificial intelligence is here, and it’s already playing a major role in elections around the globe. In a year with national elections in 64 countries, the world’s governments are seeing the immediate impact of this nascent technology in real time.
In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Khan – behind bars, with his party banned – used deepfake technology to simulate his voice and image to galvanize supporters. Khan’s allies (running as independents) took the greatest share of the vote, shocking the military-political establishment in Islamabad.
In Indonesia, Defense Minister Prabowo Subiantoused a “chubby-cheeked AI avatar” to appeal to younger voters on TikTok — and it worked. Official tallies are still pending, but Subianto is the presumed winner of the race, and watchdogs have criticized the conduct of the polls.
Meanwhile, another political party supporting Subianto used deepfake technology to portray former Indonesian dictator Suharto – who’s been dead for 16 years – urging citizens to vote. Fellow candidate Anies Baswedan got it going both ways: He deployed an AI chatbot to communicate with voters, but he was also the subject of an AI-made audio falsely portraying a political backer chastising him.
In the US, there have been AI-generated images used in political campaign videos from the Republican National Committee attacking President Joe Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis targeting former President Donald Trump. And in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, voters received a robocall featuring a fake Biden voice telling them not to vote – a call we’ve since learned came from an associate of longshot challenger Dean Phillips.
“Politicians have to win the AI race before they win the election,” says Xiaomeng Lu, director of geo-technology at the Eurasia Group. Some of that work is defensive: Taiwan reportedly used AI tools to debunk disinformation campaigns coming from China ahead of its election in January.
Of course, AI isn’t just a factor in elections but in activism and pro-democracy movements as well. That means autocrats worldwide have to watch their digital backs.
In a recent GZERO panel conversation at the Munich Security Conference, former National Security Council official Fiona Hill said that there are innovative ways for the technology to be used in protest movements. “Someone like Alexei Navalny … would have been able to use AI in extraordinarily creative ways, in the case of the Russian elections, which is something of a foregone conclusion,” she said, saying we need to consider how these technologies can be used for good by legitimate opposite leaders.
But in countries like Russia, the immense power imbalance means those trying to use AI for political reforms still face a dangerous, uphill battle, according to Justin Sherman, founder, and CEO of Global Cyber Strategies. “Dictators certainly may worry about AI’s implications for their rule, but the reality of AI in those contexts is much more complex and messy.”
With regulation lagging far behind the spread of cheap, high-quality generative AI, look for voluntary commitments from AI firms to predate the passage of effective regulation. In February, a group of 20 leading tech companies — including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft — pledged to combat election-related misinformation. These are voluntary commitments, but commitments nonetheless: The companies promised to conduct risk assessments for their models; develop watermarking, detection, and labeling systems; and educate the public about AI.
Will it be enough? We’re about to find out.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks after signing bilateral documents with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Kazakhstan November 9, 2023.
Putin is unrestrained both at home and abroad
Despite moves to isolate Moscow economically and politically following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the two-year anniversary of the war looms. Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains a firm grip on power, and Moscow continues to operate in unrestrained ways both at home and abroad.
On Tuesday, Putin approved new restrictions on media coverage ahead of Russia’s presidential elections next March. The Russian leader, who has already taken myriad steps to squash the free press in Russia, is expected to run for a fifth presidential term.
Much of the country’s independent media has gone into exile since Russia invaded Ukraine and the Kremlin accelerated its crackdown on free expression and dissent. Putin signed a law not long after the invasion that barred spreading “false” information on the military, effectively criminalizing criticism of the war. In Putin’s Russia, journalists who’ve provided accurate reporting have ended up imprisoned and in some cases killed.
Under the new rules, only journalists employed by registered media outlets can cover Central Election Commission sessions. The law also imposes restrictions on the coverage of commission activities at military bases and areas under martial law. The changes appear unlikely to drastically change an already undemocratic process that has helped Putin retain power for 24 years but are yet another sign that the 71-year-old Russian leader is taking steps to stay in the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to skirt US-led economic sanctions designed to cut off oil revenue that helps fuel Moscow’s war machine. Ukraine’s allies have capped Russian oil barrel sales at $60, but Western officials told the Financial Times that almost no oil from Russia is sold under that limit. Russia has found various ways to circumvent the cap, including via the help of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers that employ deceptive tactics and have murky ownership.
Ukraine pushed to the back pages: As support for Ukraine slips in the US, there are concerns in Kyiv and Washington that Putin is benefiting from attention being diverted by the Oct. 7 attacks and Israel’s campaign to eradicate Hamas in Gaza.
Europe’s last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
Frequently called Europe's last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko Lukashenko has sailed smoothly to victory in all six elections he's stood in, despite widespread corruption and fraud in each one. But in 2020 the biggest threat so far to Lukashenko's tight grip on government came in an unlikely package—a former schoolteacher and stay at home mom, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. After the election result was finalized, Lukashenko claimed victory, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets, and Tsikhanouskaya leads the opposition in exile. Lukashenko recently took his boldest move yet, diverting a plane en route from Greece to Lithuania to arrest another Belarusian dissident. Ian Bremmer discusses whether a democratic transition is remotely possible in Belarus on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
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