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AI will upset democracies, dictatorships, and elections
There’s no mistaking it: Artificial intelligence is here, and it’s already playing a major role in elections around the globe. In a year with national elections in 64 countries, the world’s governments are seeing the immediate impact of this nascent technology in real time.
In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Khan – behind bars, with his party banned – used deepfake technology to simulate his voice and image to galvanize supporters. Khan’s allies (running as independents) took the greatest share of the vote, shocking the military-political establishment in Islamabad.
In Indonesia, Defense Minister Prabowo Subiantoused a “chubby-cheeked AI avatar” to appeal to younger voters on TikTok — and it worked. Official tallies are still pending, but Subianto is the presumed winner of the race, and watchdogs have criticized the conduct of the polls.
Meanwhile, another political party supporting Subianto used deepfake technology to portray former Indonesian dictator Suharto – who’s been dead for 16 years – urging citizens to vote. Fellow candidate Anies Baswedan got it going both ways: He deployed an AI chatbot to communicate with voters, but he was also the subject of an AI-made audio falsely portraying a political backer chastising him.
In the US, there have been AI-generated images used in political campaign videos from the Republican National Committee attacking President Joe Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis targeting former President Donald Trump. And in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, voters received a robocall featuring a fake Biden voice telling them not to vote – a call we’ve since learned came from an associate of longshot challenger Dean Phillips.
“Politicians have to win the AI race before they win the election,” says Xiaomeng Lu, director of geo-technology at the Eurasia Group. Some of that work is defensive: Taiwan reportedly used AI tools to debunk disinformation campaigns coming from China ahead of its election in January.
Of course, AI isn’t just a factor in elections but in activism and pro-democracy movements as well. That means autocrats worldwide have to watch their digital backs.
In a recent GZERO panel conversation at the Munich Security Conference, former National Security Council official Fiona Hill said that there are innovative ways for the technology to be used in protest movements. “Someone like Alexei Navalny … would have been able to use AI in extraordinarily creative ways, in the case of the Russian elections, which is something of a foregone conclusion,” she said, saying we need to consider how these technologies can be used for good by legitimate opposite leaders.
But in countries like Russia, the immense power imbalance means those trying to use AI for political reforms still face a dangerous, uphill battle, according to Justin Sherman, founder, and CEO of Global Cyber Strategies. “Dictators certainly may worry about AI’s implications for their rule, but the reality of AI in those contexts is much more complex and messy.”
With regulation lagging far behind the spread of cheap, high-quality generative AI, look for voluntary commitments from AI firms to predate the passage of effective regulation. In February, a group of 20 leading tech companies — including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft — pledged to combat election-related misinformation. These are voluntary commitments, but commitments nonetheless: The companies promised to conduct risk assessments for their models; develop watermarking, detection, and labeling systems; and educate the public about AI.
Will it be enough? We’re about to find out.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks after signing bilateral documents with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Kazakhstan November 9, 2023.
Putin is unrestrained both at home and abroad
Despite moves to isolate Moscow economically and politically following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the two-year anniversary of the war looms. Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains a firm grip on power, and Moscow continues to operate in unrestrained ways both at home and abroad.
On Tuesday, Putin approved new restrictions on media coverage ahead of Russia’s presidential elections next March. The Russian leader, who has already taken myriad steps to squash the free press in Russia, is expected to run for a fifth presidential term.
Much of the country’s independent media has gone into exile since Russia invaded Ukraine and the Kremlin accelerated its crackdown on free expression and dissent. Putin signed a law not long after the invasion that barred spreading “false” information on the military, effectively criminalizing criticism of the war. In Putin’s Russia, journalists who’ve provided accurate reporting have ended up imprisoned and in some cases killed.
Under the new rules, only journalists employed by registered media outlets can cover Central Election Commission sessions. The law also imposes restrictions on the coverage of commission activities at military bases and areas under martial law. The changes appear unlikely to drastically change an already undemocratic process that has helped Putin retain power for 24 years but are yet another sign that the 71-year-old Russian leader is taking steps to stay in the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to skirt US-led economic sanctions designed to cut off oil revenue that helps fuel Moscow’s war machine. Ukraine’s allies have capped Russian oil barrel sales at $60, but Western officials told the Financial Times that almost no oil from Russia is sold under that limit. Russia has found various ways to circumvent the cap, including via the help of a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers that employ deceptive tactics and have murky ownership.
Ukraine pushed to the back pages: As support for Ukraine slips in the US, there are concerns in Kyiv and Washington that Putin is benefiting from attention being diverted by the Oct. 7 attacks and Israel’s campaign to eradicate Hamas in Gaza.
Europe’s last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
Frequently called Europe's last dictator, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko Lukashenko has sailed smoothly to victory in all six elections he's stood in, despite widespread corruption and fraud in each one. But in 2020 the biggest threat so far to Lukashenko's tight grip on government came in an unlikely package—a former schoolteacher and stay at home mom, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. After the election result was finalized, Lukashenko claimed victory, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets, and Tsikhanouskaya leads the opposition in exile. Lukashenko recently took his boldest move yet, diverting a plane en route from Greece to Lithuania to arrest another Belarusian dissident. Ian Bremmer discusses whether a democratic transition is remotely possible in Belarus on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
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- Belarus protesters vs “Psycho 3%” - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions - GZERO Media ›
Is there actually a bromance between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko?
Do Russian president Vladimir Putin and Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko actually have a good relationship, as photos of them together on Putin's yacht would suggest? Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya commented, "You know, the strangest thing, maybe the most obvious thing, is that the whole world understands that these two people are not friends. They are making this picture to try to persuade the Russians and the world that they are together." The reality, in her opinion, is that Moscow may be looking for suitable candidates to replace Lukashenko in a new election, because the crisis in Belarus is very inconvenient for the Kremlin. Tsikhanouskaya would prefer that Russia not interfere with Belarusian politics, she said in a conversation with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
This Belarusian great-grandmother is one of Lukashenko’s fiercest critics
Belarusian president Lukashenko dismissed his female opponent's campaign because, he said, society was "not mature enough to vote for a woman." The weight of the presidency, he added, "would cause her to collapse, poor thing." In fact, women have emerged as the protest movement's greatest force, taking over the streets wearing white and carrying flowers and colorful umbrellas. One 73-year-old great grandmother has become a symbol of the protest movement: Nina Baginskaya, who has fearlessly stood up to police during Lukashenko's brutal crackdown.
Watch the episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
The fight for democracy in Europe's last dictatorship
Is there a path to democracy for Europe's last dictatorship, Belarus? Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discusses her hopes and fears for the country with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. President Alexander Lukashenko has maintained a tight grip on power in Belarus for the last 26 years and rigged the results of his last election which led to widespread protest and unrest in his country, though few consequences globally. But will he now be held accountable after diverting a flight between two European capitals to arrest a dissident journalist? And just how close are he and Vladimir Putin?
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- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
- Belarus human rights abuses stacking up; Beirut blast one year later - GZERO Media ›
Maria Ressa on Filipino reaction to Duterte government's militarized COVID response
Embattled journalist Maria Ressa talks with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World about how the COVID-19 pandemic has bolstered President Rodrigo Duterte's authoritarian approach to governing the Philippines, and how the lockdown there has sparked a social movement among citizens. Duterte's order to kill those breaking quarantine rules, she says, "fueled Filipinos who are stuck at home to go out online, and for the first time, the day after President Duterte said that, #oustDutertenow trended number one overnight and globally as well."
Anna Fifield on the legacy and leadership of North Korea's Kim Jong Un
The Washington Post's Beijing Bureau Chief Anna Fifield discusses the legacy of Kim Jong Un, and what has defined his governing style, compared to his father (Kim Jong Il) and grandfather (Kim Il Sung), in an interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.