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AI will upset democracies, dictatorships, and elections
There’s no mistaking it: Artificial intelligence is here, and it’s already playing a major role in elections around the globe. In a year with national elections in 64 countries, the world’s governments are seeing the immediate impact of this nascent technology in real time.
In Pakistan, former Prime Minister Imran Khan – behind bars, with his party banned – used deepfake technology to simulate his voice and image to galvanize supporters. Khan’s allies (running as independents) took the greatest share of the vote, shocking the military-political establishment in Islamabad.
In Indonesia, Defense Minister Prabowo Subiantoused a “chubby-cheeked AI avatar” to appeal to younger voters on TikTok — and it worked. Official tallies are still pending, but Subianto is the presumed winner of the race, and watchdogs have criticized the conduct of the polls.
Meanwhile, another political party supporting Subianto used deepfake technology to portray former Indonesian dictator Suharto – who’s been dead for 16 years – urging citizens to vote. Fellow candidate Anies Baswedan got it going both ways: He deployed an AI chatbot to communicate with voters, but he was also the subject of an AI-made audio falsely portraying a political backer chastising him.
In the US, there have been AI-generated images used in political campaign videos from the Republican National Committee attacking President Joe Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis targeting former President Donald Trump. And in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, voters received a robocall featuring a fake Biden voice telling them not to vote – a call we’ve since learned came from an associate of longshot challenger Dean Phillips.
“Politicians have to win the AI race before they win the election,” says Xiaomeng Lu, director of geo-technology at the Eurasia Group. Some of that work is defensive: Taiwan reportedly used AI tools to debunk disinformation campaigns coming from China ahead of its election in January.
Of course, AI isn’t just a factor in elections but in activism and pro-democracy movements as well. That means autocrats worldwide have to watch their digital backs.
In a recent GZERO panel conversation at the Munich Security Conference, former National Security Council official Fiona Hill said that there are innovative ways for the technology to be used in protest movements. “Someone like Alexei Navalny … would have been able to use AI in extraordinarily creative ways, in the case of the Russian elections, which is something of a foregone conclusion,” she said, saying we need to consider how these technologies can be used for good by legitimate opposite leaders.
But in countries like Russia, the immense power imbalance means those trying to use AI for political reforms still face a dangerous, uphill battle, according to Justin Sherman, founder, and CEO of Global Cyber Strategies. “Dictators certainly may worry about AI’s implications for their rule, but the reality of AI in those contexts is much more complex and messy.”
With regulation lagging far behind the spread of cheap, high-quality generative AI, look for voluntary commitments from AI firms to predate the passage of effective regulation. In February, a group of 20 leading tech companies — including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft — pledged to combat election-related misinformation. These are voluntary commitments, but commitments nonetheless: The companies promised to conduct risk assessments for their models; develop watermarking, detection, and labeling systems; and educate the public about AI.
Will it be enough? We’re about to find out.
Deepfakes and dissent: How AI makes the opposition more dangerous
Former US National Security Council advisor Fiona Hill has plenty of experience dealing with dangerous dictators – but 2024 is even throwing her some curveballs.
After Imran Khan upset the Pakistani establishment in February’s elections by using AI to rally his voters behind bars, she thinks authoritarians must reconsider their strategies around suppressing dissent.
Speaking at a Global Stage panel on AI and elections hosted by GZERO and Microsoft on the sidelines of the Munich Security Forum, she said in this new world, someone like Alexei Navalny “would've been able to use AI in some extraordinary creative way to shake up what in the case of the Russian election is something of a foregone conclusion.”
The conversation was part of the Global Stage series, produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. These discussions convene heads of state, business leaders, technology experts from around the world for critical debate about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
Watch the full conversation here: How to protect elections in the age of AI
Imran Khan: “The Poster Boy for Populism"
Weeks after a chaotic general election, Pakistan’s political parties still struggle to form a coalition to move the country forward. GZERO’s Tony Maciulis sat down with Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Hina Khar at the Munich Security Conference for her take on how the nation’s imprisoned ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan maintains a hold over supporters and remains a powerful political force.
Independent candidates mostly aligned with Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), won the most votes on February 8, though they fell short of a majority, setting off a power struggle between Khan and his political rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Comparing Khan to former US President Donald Trump and India’s leader Narendra Modi, Khar said, “He really represents what populist leaders are all about. He’s able to get everybody to rally around what all is wrong and the great injustices. However, when he comes to power, he doesn’t have any to plan to sort it out.”
Khar explained that Khan’s popularity flows from his ability to tap into the frustrations of his base, who are deeply concerned about rising costs of living, including food and energy prices.
While she hopes the political parties will be able to come to a resolution that respects the voters' mandate, Khar says “the jury is out” about whether Khan will ultimately bow out of the process.
Khar also addressed the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and neighboring India. In a past interview with GZERO, she had described India as a “rogue nation,” a claim she stood by once again in Munich. Modi’s popularity, she said, “is based on anti-Muslim, anti-Islam” sentiments that resonate with Hindu nationalist supporters.
Supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party.
Coalition deal shuts out Khan in Pakistan
Candidates affiliated with imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most votes in last week’s election in Pakistan, but no single party won a clear majority, so a coalition government had to be formed.
On Tuesday, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, aka PLMN, and the Pakistan People’s Party, or PPP, announced that they had agreed to form a coalition government with two smaller, regional parties.
And Khan? Having been removed from office in 2022 after losing the support of Pakistan’s military, Khan knows all too well how much the country’s army has worked to sideline him in this election.
While independent candidates largely aligned with his party won the most seats, the newly formed coalition means Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is shut out.
Who will lead? The new coalition said that PLMN President Shahbaz Sharif – an ex-prime minister and the younger brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif – will be the nominee for prime minister. The presidency is expected to go to the PPP’s Asif Ali Zardari.
Buckle up. While the military is likely to wield its considerable influence to help ensure the governing coalition doesn’t collapse, the parties involved are generally considered rivals, so it may be difficult to keep them unified.
Pakistani politics are notoriously volatile — the country has never seen a prime minister complete a full five-year term in its 77-year history as an independent nation.
A man views a computer screen displaying an AI-crafted speech of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Imran Khan’s AI prison address
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan needed a tech solution to get his message out during the Pakistani parliamentary elections.
Khan, himself disqualified from running due to his prison sentence on corruption charges, has spent months urging voters to help elect his political allies, independent candidates affiliated with his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf political party. Khan, unable to record an address from prison, used an AI-generated version of his voice to read it.
After the results of the disputed election came in on Saturday, with both Khan and fellow former prime minister Nawaz Sharif claiming victory, Khan used his trusty AI voice clone to deliver a victory speech.
Supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party block a road to protest against the results of the general election, at Baleli, on the outskirts of Quetta, Pakistan, February 12, 2024.
Is Pakistan’s military losing its grip on power?
Thousands of supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan took to the streets and blocked highways in southwestern Pakistan on Monday to protest the results of last week’s chaotic election.
Pakistan faces an uncertain future given no party won a majority, and both Khan and his rival, Nawaz Sharif, have declared victory. Though independents primarily aligned with Khan won the most seats (101), there’s no viable path for them to form a governing coalition due to their lack of party affiliation. They ran as independents after being blocked from using his party’s symbol, a cricket bat, as an electoral image to help illiterate voters find them on ballots.
“The military-dominated Pakistani establishment is working to cobble together a coalition of mainstream parties that will be led by Nawaz Sharif's Pakistani Muslim League, with Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari’s Pakistan People's Party and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement likely serving as junior partners,” says Eurasia Group analyst Rahul Bhatia.
“Given the influence of the establishment in Pakistan,” candidates backed by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party “will almost certainly be kept out of power,” adds Bhatia, though some “are also likely to join the coalition parties.”
Still, the unexpected success of Khan’s independents marks a serious rebuke of the country’s powerful military, which has long played an outsized role in Pakistan’s politics. The fact that Khan’s supporters are protesting despite the military’s crackdown on his party “shows that many Pakistanis are no longer afraid of the establishment,” says Bhatia, and it indicates the army’s power is “gradually eroding.”
“While Pakistan will likely see widespread protests once the new government is announced, the military should be able to handle them,” says Bhatia.
Supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party gather during a protest demanding free and fair results of the elections in Karachi, Pakistan February 11, 2024.
Pakistan faces uncertain future after messy election
Following days of delay, the final results of Pakistan’s elections were announced on Sunday. Unexpectedly, independent candidates aligned with imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan took the most seats — 101 — outpacing the party of Khan’s rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, which won 75 spots out of 266 seats up for grabs.
The election was marred by deadly violence and accusations that the nuclear power’s military rigged the process in Sharif’s favor. The shock result is unsettling both for the army, which plays an outsized role in Pakistani politics, and for Sharif, whose party was expected to win.
An uncertain future. Both Sharif and Khan have declared victory — the latter using AI to do so since he’s still behind bars – though no party won the majority needed to form a government.
Sharif has proposed forming a coalition – even though the ex-leader dismissed the idea on Election Day. Meanwhile, Khan’s supporters have taken to the streets, alleging that the vote was manipulated to deny them a majority. Khan loyalists are also mounting court challenges over the results, leaving Pakistan bracing for more political chaos in the days ahead.
Burqa-clad women arrive at a polling station to cast their vote as a police officer stands guard during general election, in Peshawar, Pakistan, February 8, 2024.
Who won Pakistan’s violent, chaotic election?
Pakistan went to the polls on Thursday in an election tainted by undemocratic practices – including a suspension of mobile phone services during voting – and violence.
Amid unexpected delays in the tallying of votes, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharifdeclared victory Friday despite acknowledging that his party did not win enough seats to form a government. Sharif said his party won the largest share of the vote and that he would seek to form a coalition government. Meanwhile, reports indicated that independent candidates mostly affiliated with imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats so far.
Before Election Day, Pakistan’s military was effectively accused of rigging the process in favor of Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League party with a rampant crackdown on Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party. Sharif and Khan are archrivals.
There’s “no doubt” that the delays in the vote count are part of a military-backed effort to ensure Khan-affiliated candidates don't come out on top, says Pramit Chaudhuri, Eurasia Group’s head of South Asia Research.
“PTI seems to have been able to get through the fog and connect its voters with their independent candidates,” says Chaudhuri, adding, “The results are the generals’ nightmare.”
Ongoing violence. At least 28 people were reportedly killed in Pakistan during voting on Thursday, and the violence continued into Friday, with at least two people killed in clashes between police and Khan supporters in the northwestern Shangla district.