We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Khan’s murky political future in Pakistan
Pakistan’s dysfunctional politics took another turn on Tuesday when an appeals court suspended former PM Imran Khan’s sentence and three-year jail term for allegedly selling state gifts during his tenure. However, that same court has not overturned that conviction and will decide on whether to set it aside at a later, unspecified date.
Quick background. Khan, the former cricket sensation turned populist politician, was imprisoned earlier this month on graft charges that he says are politically motivated. He was ousted in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, which set the streets on fire. Indeed, polls show that he remains the most popular leader in the country.
The former PM says that the all-powerful military – backed by the US – is behind efforts to block him from power.
Still, Khan, who faces a host of other charges that he denies, has not been released because he faces another hearing on Wednesday related to charges that he revealed state secrets when he waved a government document in the air at a political rally.
So what happens now? Under state law, Khan, who has been banned from running for public office for five years, can only run in Pakistan’s election, set for November, if his criminal convictions are overturned. But this latest decision, which likely allows him to get out of jail while his appeal makes its way through the courts, gives little indication that things are heading that way.Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan
Pakistan paves way for dicey elections
Pakistan’s parliament has been officially dissolved, paving the way for fresh elections as the country grapples with deepening economic and political crises. The move, which was expected, comes just days after former PM Imran Khan was convicted of corruption in a trial that he and his supporters say was designed to kill his political career. He has been sentenced to three years.
Khan, a charismatic former cricket star, swept to power on a populist-Islamist platform in 2018 but was ousted in a no-confidence vote last year after clashing with Pakistan’s powerful military. Mass protests followed, some of which turned violent. Khan remains the country’s leading opposition figure.
By law, the new election must be held within 90 days, but the process of redistricting under a new census could push the date beyond that. If so, that could give beleaguered caretaker Prime Minister Shabbazz Sharif more time to use a recently concluded IMF deal to stabilize the spiraling economy, giving a boost to his PML-N Party at the polls.
But a delay like that would risk a surge of popular anger against a deeply unpopular government. The most recent polls, from April, showed Khan’s PTI Party with twice the support of the PML-N.
Supporters chant slogans as they gather for a protest following the arrest of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan, in Peshawar, Pakistan.
Imran Khan sentenced, Pakistan on edge
Former PM Imran Khan is bunking down in Pakistan’s notorious maximum security Attock prison after being found guilty of corruption. The court, which said he illegally concealed assets after selling state gifts, also banned the 70-year-old former cricket champ from running for office for five years. Khan may also lose the chairmanship of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.
Khan denied the charges, claiming they were designed to prevent him from running for office in the next national election, which was scheduled for November but may now be delayed. Since being ousted in a 2022 no-confidence vote, Khan has remained Pakistan’s leading opposition figure, but his party has been severely weakened by the defection of dozens of key officials and the arrests of thousands of supporters.
Reaction from Islamabad to Washington. When Khan was arrested on unrelated charges in May 2023, clashes between demonstrators and police resulted in 12 injuries, one death, and the suspension of internet service. In anticipation of similar unrest, authorities imposed a seven-day ban on all public gatherings in several districts of Punjab and declared a high-security alert in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. But so far, despite Khan and PTI officials calling on supporters to peacefully protest, only scattered demonstrations have been reported.
Reaction from the US State Department was similarly muted, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying only that the US hopes “whatever happens in Pakistan is consistent with the rule of law, with the Constitution.”
What’s next? Khan’s lawyers plan to file an appeal, but if he remains barred from running, the next big test will be whether Khan’s PTI colleagues can mobilize the masses to vote in the next election.
A supporter of Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan throws stones towards police during a protest against Khan's arrest in Peshawar.
Imran Khan released from prison
Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday ordered that former Prime Minister Imran Khan be released from jail. He was set free on Friday and cannot be arrested again for at least two weeks.
Protests have raged nationwide since Khan's arrest on Tuesday on corruption charges. His detainment came after Khan accused a military intelligence officer of plotting to kill him. That accusation was a red line in a country where the military is the most powerful institution. After Khan's supporters responded by taking to the streets. In response, authorities shut off the internet and cellphone networks, deployed the army, and arrested at least 3,000 protesters. At least 10 have been killed in the turmoil.
Khan – a former cricket star who was elected on a populist-Islamist platform in 2018 – was ousted from power in 2022, and tensions between him and the military have been rising ever since. He has remained the most powerful politician in the country and successfully forced fresh elections by dissolving the general assemblies in both provinces, triggering a constitutional mandate for elections. Those votes were delayed by political wrangling -- a postponement the Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional, but the Election Commission of Pakistan has again challenged the ruling, which means the elections have been delayed again.
Khan is expected back in court in the coming weeks. He has pleaded not guilty to corruption, but if he's convicted he could be barred from standing for office.
*Correction: Our morning newsletter incorrectly reported that the provincial elections would be held this weekend. The ECP's challenge of the high court's ruling has forced another postponement.
Trump sexual abuse verdict won't hurt him with GOP
Trump was found liable in lawsuit by E. Jean Carroll. Does this hurt his 2024 presidential aspirations? After his Victory Day speech falsely comparing his invasion of Ukraine to the defeat of Nazi Germany, is Putin losing domestic support? How might Imran Khan's arrest affect stability in Pakistan? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Number one, Trump was found liable in lawsuit by E. Jean Carroll. Does this hurt his 2024 presidential aspirations?
Found liable for sexual abuse and for defamation, not for rape. A civil case, $5 million he's going to have to pay. That is a horrible, horrible state of affairs for the former president of the United States. It's a stain on the country and it should matter, but it won't. It will be seen by his supporters as yet one more witch hunt, and his immediate response was, "I don't even know the woman," which is obviously untrue, but is a feature of his presidency and of his candidacy. Keep in mind, the people that are voting for him for the nomination are largely people that very strongly support him and very strongly oppose Biden. I suspect that if anything, this is going to have a negligible to slightly positive impact on the way he's likely to perform in the Republican primaries, and that is an insane thing to say.
After his Victory Day speech falsely comparing his invasion of Ukraine to the defeat of Nazi Germany, is Putin losing domestic support?
No. No, not at all. There's a theme with these questions apparently right now. Not at all. Putin domestically has an enormous amount of support. Still, I would say that the war has been internalized as part of national identity in Russia at this point. There are no more significant anti- Russian, anti-war demonstrations in the, a feeling that the Russians are fighting the war against NATO, against the United States, not just against the Ukrainians. Certainly, the war has been extremely poorly fought and managed on the Russian side. The Russian economy has been managed extremely well, and that's a challenging sort of thing to square if you're looking at Russia internationally, but domestically, it means the average Russian still feels okay about where the economy is. At least those that haven't been sent to fight or haven't fled because they're concerned about getting drafted.
Finally, how might Imran Khan's arrest affect stability in Pakistan?
Pretty badly. I mean, look, at the one hand, this is a country that is near default facing massive inflation, huge economic crisis. At the same time, the arrest of the extremely popular former Prime Minister Imran Khan, which was prevented once because all of his supporters stormed around his house and stopped the police and the military from coming in, well, this time around they got him and that is going to lead to mass protests, I'm almost certain, across the entire country in a time that they really can't afford it. So more challenges in Pakistan, sort of an ongoing state of affairs, but worse now than they have been in some time.
A boy rides past a paramilitary check post, that was set afire by the supporters of Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan
Pakistan’s military pays the price for Imran Khan's arrest
Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested in Islamabad on Tuesday as he appeared in court to face corruption charges. The move triggered nationwide protests against the military, the country’s most powerful institution, with clashes killing at least one protester late Tuesday. A judge is expected to rule Wednesday on whether to grant a request by authorities to keep the former PM in detention for the next 14 days.
Khan was ousted in 2022 in a no-confidence vote and has faced countless anti-corruption and terrorism charges ever since. While the arrest was ostensibly linked to those charges, it came after Khan accused a military intelligence official of plotting to kill him. Experts say Khan crossed a red line with his accusation, which the military immediately denounced. His arrest “was essentially a warning from the military,” says Eurasia Group’s head of South Asia Research, Pramit Chaudhuri.
Pakistan has historically revered its military, but Khan’s arrest triggered a brazen backlash from supporters. Videos circulated by the former PM’s media team show his backers smashing through the gates of the military headquarters in Rawalpindi. Khan supporters also demonstrated outside military compounds nationwide.
To Chaudhuri, the mass protests indicate that “at the end of all of this, Khan will almost certainly be released, and that he will actually come out stronger.” And this comes just in time for Sunday’s provincial election in Punjab. Pakistan's military has since been deployed to the state to maintain order.
In an attempt to regain power, Khan dissolved assemblies earlier this year in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, provinces where his party has a stronghold. Pakistan’s constitution stipulates that an election be held within 90 days of dissolution. But PM Shehbaz Sharif’s ruling party argued the votes should be held at the same time as national elections in October, hoping that the economic and political conditions would be more favorable for them by then. The Supreme Court decided the delay was unconstitutional, and the elections are expected to be an opportune moment for Khan to capitalize on his growing popularity.
Tuesday’s arrest will only add to that momentum. Chaudhuri says Khan is by far the most popular politician in Pakistan. “He controls the streets and has positioned himself as a populist agitator against the entrenched establishment, Shehbaz Sharif, and the military,” he says.
“As far as legitimacy is concerned, he has almost all of it in Pakistan.”
Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan, gestures as he speaks with Reuters during an interview in Lahore.
What We're Watching: Punjab election back on, China-India war of names, Brazil wants peace in Ukraine
Constitutional & political crises in Pakistan
Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered that Punjab, the country’s most populous state, can hold elections on May 14, deeming a recent government decision to postpone polls in two states as “unconstitutional.”
Quick recap: This comes after Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf Party, led by former PM Imran Khan, filed a petition challenging the government’s decision to delay the polls in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from April to October.
The government had attributed the delay to a shortfall in funds due to economic constraints, but the top court ordered the government to release 20 billion rupees ($70 million) to fund the elections.
You’ll likely remember that Khan – who was ousted last April in a no-confidence vote and now faces corruption and terrorism charges that he says are politically motivated – is at loggerheads with the central government that’s trying to sideline him.
What’s more, this comes just days after the government introduced a bill in parliament trying to limit the power of the Supreme Court, which Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has long accused of “judicial activism.”
While the tussle between the government and the judiciary continues, there is at least one winner here: Khan, whose primary demand since being ousted has been fresh elections, particularly in his home state of Punjab. The last time Punjab held by-polls, PTI won in a landslide.
India to China: You can't rename what ain't yours
India is pushing back against China's latest attempt to rename 11 places in the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing claims as part of southern Tibet. The names China says it is "standardizing" include five Himalayan mountains.
China has tried before to rename areas in the region, triggering angry responses from New Delhi. In 2017, Beijing did it as payback for India allowing the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh. The motive now is unclear, but the stakes are higher: In June 2020, Chinese and Indian troops had their first violent clash along their disputed Himalayan border since the 1960s. (That skirmish was in Ladakh, another chunk of India that China wants to gobble up.)
The fallout from the 2020 border fight saw India come down hard on China, for instance, by banning Chinese-made mobile apps like TikTok. Several rounds of talks had helped calm things down, but not entirely. Last December, soldiers from the two sides had another icy scuffle, this time in Arunachal Pradesh.
With the militaries of two nuclear-armed regional rival powers on high alert in the world's highest battlefield, what could go wrong?
Brazil visits Russia
On Monday, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva revealed that he had dispatched his top foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin on how to stop the war in Ukraine.
It’s easy to dismiss the importance of this trip. Putin can stop the war anytime he wants, and a cynic will say Lula simply wants to raise Brazil’s international profile with a peace initiative that will make no difference to the conduct of the war.
But this visit reminds us that many developing countries, now struggling with inflation and debt exacerbated by the war, are far more interested in seeing the conflict end as soon as possible than in Western lectures on its importance for the international order.
There’s also this comment from Amorim: “There will come a time when, on one side or the other, a realization will emerge that the cost of war – not just the political cost, but the human and economic cost – will be greater than the cost of the concessions needed for peace." He’s surely right about that, and if Brazil can play any role at all in helping to shape the eventual peace, the world will become a safer place.
A police officer fires a tear gas can as supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan clash with police outside a Federal Judicial Complex in Islamabad.
Hard Numbers: Khan chaos continues, Ukraine grain deal extended, lifeline for Credit Suisse, violence mars Nigerian vote
61: At least 61 supporters of Imran Khan – Pakistan’s former prime minister who was ousted last April in a no-confidence vote and now faces corruption charges – were arrested on Sunday, when police stormed the former cricket star’s Lahore compound. At the estate, police found iron rods, weapons, and Molotov cocktails that were used in recent clashes with authorities. Khan was supposed to appear in court in Islamabad, but the hearing has been pushed back because of the ongoing violence.
60: A deal – brokered by Turkey and the UN – to allow grain shipments through the Black Sea that have been hindered by Russia’s blockade of southern Ukraine has been extended for at least 60 days. Ukraine and Turkey say the deal has been extended for 120 days, but Moscow claims to have only agreed to half of that.
3.25 billion: UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, has agreed to buy embattled Credit Suisse, the country’s second-largest lender, for $3.25 billion. After reporting big losses in 2022 and feeling the fallout from recent financial turmoil in the US, Credit Suisse has been faced with a crisis of confidence. Crucially, its boost last week by the Swiss National Bank failed to reassure the markets.
800: Millions of Nigerians voted Saturday for 800 candidates running for governorships and state legislature seats in 28 out of 36 states. Just weeks after a contested presidential race, violence delayed counting in some places, prompting a few states, including Lagos, to allow voting for a second day.