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Deepfakes and dissent: How AI makes the opposition more dangerous
Former US National Security Council advisor Fiona Hill has plenty of experience dealing with dangerous dictators – but 2024 is even throwing her some curveballs.
After Imran Khan upset the Pakistani establishment in February’s elections by using AI to rally his voters behind bars, she thinks authoritarians must reconsider their strategies around suppressing dissent.
Speaking at a Global Stage panel on AI and elections hosted by GZERO and Microsoft on the sidelines of the Munich Security Forum, she said in this new world, someone like Alexei Navalny “would've been able to use AI in some extraordinary creative way to shake up what in the case of the Russian election is something of a foregone conclusion.”
The conversation was part of the Global Stage series, produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. These discussions convene heads of state, business leaders, technology experts from around the world for critical debate about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
Watch the full conversation here: How to protect elections in the age of AI
How to protect elections in the age of AI
Half of the world’s population will have the chance to head to the polls this year in dozens of critical elections worldwide. These votes, which will shape policy and democracy for years to come, come amid light-speed development in artificial intelligence. As Eurasia Group noted in its 2024 Top Risk entitled “Ungoverned AI,” generative AI could be used by domestic and foreign actors – we’re looking at you, Russia – to impact campaigns and undermine trust in democracy.
To meet the moment, GZERO Media, on the ground at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, held a Global Stage discussion on Feb. 17 entitled “Protecting Elections in the Age of AI.” We spoke with Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft; Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Fiona Hill, senior fellow for the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings; Eva Maydell, an EU parliamentarian and a lead negotiator of the EU Chips Act and Artificial Intelligence Act; Kersti Kaljulaid, the former president of Estonia; with European correspondent Maria Tadeo moderating. The program also featured interviews with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister, and Benedikt Franke, CEO and vice-chair of the Munich Security Conference. These thought leaders and experts discussed the implications of the rapid rise of AI amid this historic election year.
The group started by delving into what Bremmer has referred to as the “Voldemort” of years surrounding elections, to look at how election interference and disinformation have evolved since 2016.
“This is the year that people have been very concerned about, but have kind of hoped that they could push off. It's not just because there are elections all over the world and trust in institutions is deteriorating, it's also because the most powerful country in the world, and it's not becoming less powerful, is also one of the most politically dysfunctional,” says Bremmer, referring to the US.
The 2024 US presidential election “is maximally distrust-laden,” says Bremmer, adding that it’s “really hard to have a free and fair election in the US that all of its population” believes is legitimate.
And the worry is that AI could complicate the landscape even further.
Hill agreed that there’s cause for concern but underscored that people should not “panic” to a point where they’re “paralyzed” and “not taking action.”
“Panic is not an option given the stakes,” says Hill, adding, “There are negative aspects of all of this, but there's also the kind of question that we have to grapple with is how when legitimate competitors or opposition movements that otherwise beleaguered decide to use AI tools, that then also has an impact.”
There’s no doubt that AI can be used for nefarious purposes. Deepfakes can fool even the most discerning eye. Disinformation has already been rampant across the internet in recent election cycles and helped sow major divisions in many countries well before AI tools — far more sophisticated than your average meme — were widely available.
“With new tools and products that use generative AI, including from a company like ours, somebody can create a very realistic video, audio, or image. Just think about the different ways it can be used. Somebody can use it and they can make a video of themself, and they can make clear in the video that this is AI generated. That is one way a political candidate, even one who is in prison can speak,” says Smith, alluding to ex-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent use of AI from behind bars.
Along these lines, there are many serious, valid concerns about the impact AI can have on elections and democracy more generally — particularly at a time when people are exhibiting rising levels of distrust in key institutions.
“It's very important to acknowledge a lot of the important developments that AI and emerging tech can bring to support our economic development,” says Maydell, adding, “but in the same time, especially this year, we need to be very sober about some of those threats that are in a way threatening the very fabric of our democratic societies.
As Maydell noted, this evolving new technology can be harnessed for good and bad. Can AI be used as a tool to protect candidates and the integrity of the electoral process?
A number of major tech companies, including Microsoft, signed an accord at the Munich Security Conference on Friday to help thwart and combat AI-related election interference.
“It's all about trying to put ourselves in a position, not to solve this problem completely, I don't think that's possible, but to manage this new reality in a way that will make a difference,” says Smith. The Microsoft president says the accord brings the tech sector together to preserve the authenticity of content, including by working to detect deepfakes and providing candidates with a mechanism to report any that are created about them.
“We'll work together to promote transparency and public education. This clearly is going to require a lot of work with civil society, with others around the world to help the public be ready,” says Smith.
But is enough being done?
“It's good that both politicians and the companies and society as a whole now has a better understanding where this is all leading us and we are collectively taking actions,” says Kaljulaid, but this is just a “first step” and “next steps need to follow.”
A balance will need to be found between legislating the challenges presented by AI and giving tech companies space to collaborate, innovate and address problems on their own.
“Democracy is always in jeopardy. Every generation has to answer the call to defend it,” says Smith, adding, “Now it's our turn. It's our turn as a generation of people to say that technology always changes, but democracy is a value that we hold timeless. So let's do what it takes to defend it, to preserve and promote it.”
The livestream was part of the Global Stage series, produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. These discussions convene heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for critical debate about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
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Live premiere today at 12 pm ET: Can we use AI to protect elections?
Today at 12 pm ET/9 am PT/6 pm CET, watch the live premiere of our Global Stage discussion at the Munich Security Conference, "Munich 2024: Protecting Elections in the Age of AI." 2024 is truly the “Year of Elections” with more than 75 nations heading to the polls, affecting roughly half the world’s population. But an ongoing decline of trust in institutions plus an explosion of AI tools and deep fake technologies could create a dangerous environment. Our panel will examine how AI can also be a way to protect consumers and candidates, helping to shore up the integrity of the electoral process. Can AI be used to quickly flag and even eliminate online lies and misinformation?
European correspondent Maria Tadeo moderates the conversation with an expert panel including:
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings
- Kersti Kaljulaid, former President of Estonia
- Eva Maydell, Member of the European Parliament and lead negotiator, EU Chips Act and Artificial Intelligence Act.
- Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President, Microsoft
- Special appearances by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece, and Benedikt Franke, Vice-Chairman and CEO, Munich Security Conference
More about Global Stage:
Global Stage: Global issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and societyyoutu.be
Putin will capitalize on Western divisions, says Fiona Hill
“To deal with Putin, we have to have collective, coherent, concerted pushback,” Fiona Hill said in January. The former Director of European and Russian Affairs at the National Security Council under President Donald Trump warned that Vladimir Putin would likely exploit the political climate in America and tensions between allies to his advantage. Now would be the moment to act, she added, citing that the stage has been set for Putin to exert “coercive diplomacy” to mix things up to see what he can get out of America’s increasingly weak hand.
Watch all of Hill's interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World: American strife: Will US democracy survive? Fiona Hill explains post-Jan 6 stakes
Standing up for democracy and the truth: Former US national security official Fiona Hill
January 6 laid bare "the deep divisions, the partisan infighting, the polarization within our society," says Fiona Hill, the former US senior director of the National Security Council. In a GZERO World interview, she spoke with Ian Bremmer about her concerns about the state of democracy in the United States.
Hill famously testified against her impeached boss, Donald Trump, who stayed in power after being acquitted by the Senate of abuse of power and obstructing Congress. She also notes that divisions actually make America look weaker on the global stage — particularly to someone like Russia’s president Vladimir Putin.
Watch this episode of GZERO World: American strife: Will US democracy survive? Fiona Hill explains post-Jan 6 stakes
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An emboldened Putin thrives on American disunity
Political polarization in the US isn’t just a problem within the country, points out former US national security official Fiona Hill. Deep divisions, she says, actually make America look weaker on the global stage — particularly to someone like Russia’s president Vladimir Putin.
“Putin loves our disunity," Russian expert Hill tells Ian Bremmer. "It's incredibly useful as a tool to exploit in that toolkit that he has.”
“Part of our problem, she adds, is how to deal with that. Her recipe? "Collective, coherent, concerted pushback."
Watch her full interview on this episode of GZERO World: American strife: Will US democracy survive? Fiona Hill explains post-Jan 6 stakes
Fiona Hill doesn’t regret her role in the Trump White House
Fiona Hill doesn't regret joining the Trump administration, despite her acrimonious exit from the government as a result of the former US president's first impeachment trial.
“I don't have any problem whatsoever with what I did, and the decision that I made in going into the White House or the administration and National Security Council back in 2017,” Hill told Ian Bremmer.
The former senior director of the National Security Council famously testified against her impeached boss, who stayed in power after being acquitted by the Senate of abuse of power and obstructing Congress.
“I never expected to be in that position," she said, "but I think it's very important for people to stand up there, be counted, and speak out.”
Watch her full interview on this episode of GZERO World: American strife: Will US democracy survive? Fiona Hill explains post-Jan 6 stakes
American strife: Will US democracy survive? Fiona Hill explains post-Jan 6 stakes
One year after the attack on the US Capitol, American democracy is still hurting.
For Ian Bremmer, a democracy dies when regular people like the rioters choose violence over votes, and we can no longer agree on objective reality. But Republicans have done such a great job at whitewashing that Democrats are now the ones with their back against the wall ahead of the November midterms.
On GZERO World, Ian spoke with Fiona Hill, a former US national security official with a dim view of what lies ahead for American democracy.
January 6 laid bare "the deep divisions, the partisan infighting, the polarization within our society" — which a year later still has Democrats and Republicans mostly split over what happened, what it means, and who was responsible.
Hill, a key witness in former president Donald Trump's first impeachment trial, has no regrets about serving in his administration. She wanted to work on Russia after Moscow's interference in the 2016 presidential election.
After learning what Vladimir Putin thinks of American democracy, Hill worries about the global implications of January 6.
Putin loves how right now "there's no us, there's no we" in America, or in US foreign policy. So, how do you deal with a guy who revels in your disunity? The only way, she says, is "collective, coherent, concerted pushback."
China too is watching closely. But the good news is that if Washington doesn't have its house in order, neither does Beijing. And that means no war in 2022.