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Imran Khan: “The Poster Boy for Populism"
Weeks after a chaotic general election, Pakistan’s political parties still struggle to form a coalition to move the country forward. GZERO’s Tony Maciulis sat down with Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Hina Khar at the Munich Security Conference for her take on how the nation’s imprisoned ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan maintains a hold over supporters and remains a powerful political force.
Independent candidates mostly aligned with Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), won the most votes on February 8, though they fell short of a majority, setting off a power struggle between Khan and his political rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Comparing Khan to former US President Donald Trump and India’s leader Narendra Modi, Khar said, “He really represents what populist leaders are all about. He’s able to get everybody to rally around what all is wrong and the great injustices. However, when he comes to power, he doesn’t have any to plan to sort it out.”
Khar explained that Khan’s popularity flows from his ability to tap into the frustrations of his base, who are deeply concerned about rising costs of living, including food and energy prices.
While she hopes the political parties will be able to come to a resolution that respects the voters' mandate, Khar says “the jury is out” about whether Khan will ultimately bow out of the process.
Khar also addressed the ongoing tensions between Pakistan and neighboring India. In a past interview with GZERO, she had described India as a “rogue nation,” a claim she stood by once again in Munich. Modi’s popularity, she said, “is based on anti-Muslim, anti-Islam” sentiments that resonate with Hindu nationalist supporters.
A man views a computer screen displaying an AI-crafted speech of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Imran Khan’s AI prison address
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan needed a tech solution to get his message out during the Pakistani parliamentary elections.
Khan, himself disqualified from running due to his prison sentence on corruption charges, has spent months urging voters to help elect his political allies, independent candidates affiliated with his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf political party. Khan, unable to record an address from prison, used an AI-generated version of his voice to read it.
After the results of the disputed election came in on Saturday, with both Khan and fellow former prime minister Nawaz Sharif claiming victory, Khan used his trusty AI voice clone to deliver a victory speech.
Trump's Jan. 6 trial could now hurt his re-election bid
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the US-proposed cease-fire plan for Israel and Hamas come to fruition amidst reports of hostage deaths?
It's not done until it's done. There are a lot of ways that it can blow up. And, you know, Netanyahu probably wants to take it to the Knesset and get, you know, support for it. And nonetheless, Hamas can always say no. But I would bet on it. I think we are going to see more hostages released. There's a lot of pressure on Israel to give away more to get that done in terms of a cease-fire. And there's a lot of pressure on Hamas to accept a longer cease-fire and see if they can keep it going. So I think we'll get at least four weeks in return for a significant number of hostages that are released. That doesn't mean that we get a peace plan. It doesn't mean we see a two-state solution. It certainly doesn't mean that the cease-fire is going to hold for longer than that period of time or even the entire period of time submitted to. There are plenty of actors that still want to see war continue on the ground.
How will upcoming elections in Pakistan affect its broader geopolitical standing in the world?
I'd say badly, but in reality not very much. I mean, the big deal is that the most popular person to run in Pakistan is not allowed to run. That's Imran Khan, the very charismatic cricketer whose party has basically been dismantled and who is himself said to be a criminal for charges that at the very least look politicized and at the worst look pretty much made up. That's not great for a democracy, even one where the military still holds an enormous amount of power. And ultimately, you're going to see a lot of instability in Pakistan, probably a lot of violence in the midst of an economy that's doing very, very badly.
Finally, the US appeals court ruled that Trump can face trial for election interference. Does this lower the odds on his possible return to the White House?
Well, I mean, it does. If you thought that the appeals court was going to rule any other way. I mean, certainly the fact that these cases are going on and that Trump might be indicted before the election, most likely in the Washington DC case, that would reduce Trump's support base among independents and make it less likely for them to turn out for him, maybe less likely some of them will vote at all than otherwise. And so of all of the wild cards out there that could really hurt Trump, a conviction is a big one, especially a conviction for a felony crime. And the fact that impunity doesn't hold in the way it's been argued by the Trump lawyers does make a difference. Still, if you were having the election right now, Trump wins. And there's a lot of time out there, but it's still a challenging road, perhaps a more challenging road for Biden today than it is for Trump. And that is something that everyone should keep a very close eye on.
Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Khan’s murky political future in Pakistan
Pakistan’s dysfunctional politics took another turn on Tuesday when an appeals court suspended former PM Imran Khan’s sentence and three-year jail term for allegedly selling state gifts during his tenure. However, that same court has not overturned that conviction and will decide on whether to set it aside at a later, unspecified date.
Quick background. Khan, the former cricket sensation turned populist politician, was imprisoned earlier this month on graft charges that he says are politically motivated. He was ousted in a no-confidence vote in April 2022, which set the streets on fire. Indeed, polls show that he remains the most popular leader in the country.
The former PM says that the all-powerful military – backed by the US – is behind efforts to block him from power.
Still, Khan, who faces a host of other charges that he denies, has not been released because he faces another hearing on Wednesday related to charges that he revealed state secrets when he waved a government document in the air at a political rally.
So what happens now? Under state law, Khan, who has been banned from running for public office for five years, can only run in Pakistan’s election, set for November, if his criminal convictions are overturned. But this latest decision, which likely allows him to get out of jail while his appeal makes its way through the courts, gives little indication that things are heading that way.A supporter of Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan throws stones towards police during a protest against Khan's arrest in Peshawar.
Imran Khan released from prison
Pakistan’s Supreme Court on Thursday ordered that former Prime Minister Imran Khan be released from jail. He was set free on Friday and cannot be arrested again for at least two weeks.
Protests have raged nationwide since Khan's arrest on Tuesday on corruption charges. His detainment came after Khan accused a military intelligence officer of plotting to kill him. That accusation was a red line in a country where the military is the most powerful institution. After Khan's supporters responded by taking to the streets. In response, authorities shut off the internet and cellphone networks, deployed the army, and arrested at least 3,000 protesters. At least 10 have been killed in the turmoil.
Khan – a former cricket star who was elected on a populist-Islamist platform in 2018 – was ousted from power in 2022, and tensions between him and the military have been rising ever since. He has remained the most powerful politician in the country and successfully forced fresh elections by dissolving the general assemblies in both provinces, triggering a constitutional mandate for elections. Those votes were delayed by political wrangling -- a postponement the Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional, but the Election Commission of Pakistan has again challenged the ruling, which means the elections have been delayed again.
Khan is expected back in court in the coming weeks. He has pleaded not guilty to corruption, but if he's convicted he could be barred from standing for office.
*Correction: Our morning newsletter incorrectly reported that the provincial elections would be held this weekend. The ECP's challenge of the high court's ruling has forced another postponement.
Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan, gestures as he speaks with Reuters during an interview in Lahore.
What We're Watching: Punjab election back on, China-India war of names, Brazil wants peace in Ukraine
Constitutional & political crises in Pakistan
Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered that Punjab, the country’s most populous state, can hold elections on May 14, deeming a recent government decision to postpone polls in two states as “unconstitutional.”
Quick recap: This comes after Pakistan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf Party, led by former PM Imran Khan, filed a petition challenging the government’s decision to delay the polls in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from April to October.
The government had attributed the delay to a shortfall in funds due to economic constraints, but the top court ordered the government to release 20 billion rupees ($70 million) to fund the elections.
You’ll likely remember that Khan – who was ousted last April in a no-confidence vote and now faces corruption and terrorism charges that he says are politically motivated – is at loggerheads with the central government that’s trying to sideline him.
What’s more, this comes just days after the government introduced a bill in parliament trying to limit the power of the Supreme Court, which Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has long accused of “judicial activism.”
While the tussle between the government and the judiciary continues, there is at least one winner here: Khan, whose primary demand since being ousted has been fresh elections, particularly in his home state of Punjab. The last time Punjab held by-polls, PTI won in a landslide.
India to China: You can't rename what ain't yours
India is pushing back against China's latest attempt to rename 11 places in the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing claims as part of southern Tibet. The names China says it is "standardizing" include five Himalayan mountains.
China has tried before to rename areas in the region, triggering angry responses from New Delhi. In 2017, Beijing did it as payback for India allowing the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh. The motive now is unclear, but the stakes are higher: In June 2020, Chinese and Indian troops had their first violent clash along their disputed Himalayan border since the 1960s. (That skirmish was in Ladakh, another chunk of India that China wants to gobble up.)
The fallout from the 2020 border fight saw India come down hard on China, for instance, by banning Chinese-made mobile apps like TikTok. Several rounds of talks had helped calm things down, but not entirely. Last December, soldiers from the two sides had another icy scuffle, this time in Arunachal Pradesh.
With the militaries of two nuclear-armed regional rival powers on high alert in the world's highest battlefield, what could go wrong?
Brazil visits Russia
On Monday, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva revealed that he had dispatched his top foreign policy adviser, Celso Amorim, to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin on how to stop the war in Ukraine.
It’s easy to dismiss the importance of this trip. Putin can stop the war anytime he wants, and a cynic will say Lula simply wants to raise Brazil’s international profile with a peace initiative that will make no difference to the conduct of the war.
But this visit reminds us that many developing countries, now struggling with inflation and debt exacerbated by the war, are far more interested in seeing the conflict end as soon as possible than in Western lectures on its importance for the international order.
There’s also this comment from Amorim: “There will come a time when, on one side or the other, a realization will emerge that the cost of war – not just the political cost, but the human and economic cost – will be greater than the cost of the concessions needed for peace." He’s surely right about that, and if Brazil can play any role at all in helping to shape the eventual peace, the world will become a safer place.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is greeted by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he arrives Britain.
What We’re Watching: Zelensky and the jets, Pakistan targets TTP militants
Zelensky to British lawmakers: “Give us wings”
President Volodymyr Zelensky embarked on a whirlwind tour on Wednesday, leaving Ukraine for just the second time since Russia’s war began almost a year ago. Making a surprise stop in the UK, Zelensky met with PM Rishi Sunak and King Charles III and charmed British lawmakers at an address in the House of Commons. While the build-up to the trip was shrouded in secrecy, Zelensky was upfront about why he was there, imploring parliament to send Ukraine fighter jets: “We have freedom. Give us wings to protect it,” he said. Some analysts have suggested that Zelensky is moving too fast and isn’t reading the room properly: After all, it was just a few weeks ago that western countries finally agreed to send him battle tanks, and that came only after months of handwringing and negotiations. Sunak, for his part, said he is still considering the request but confirmed that the UK will help train Ukrainian pilots to use NATO-standard jets. Zelensky then headed to Paris, where he made a similar plea to President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, followed by a stop in Brussels where he addressed the European Parliament. Crucially, the US has not committed to sending fighter jets, and given that Washington and Brussels have been in lockstep on supporting Ukraine, this might determine how the Europeans respond for now. Indeed, Poland, one of Ukraine's strongest allies, said it would only move on the request "within the entire formation of NATO."
Pakistan vs. its homegrown Taliban
On Wednesday, Pakistani security forces launched an early morning raid on a suspected terrorist hideout that killed 12 Pakistani Taliban insurgents. This is the latest deadly violence in an ongoing firefight between the Pakistani security services and the homegrown jihadis of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, a militant group allied with, but separate from, Afghanistan’s Taliban. Since the US-led NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the reestablishment of Taliban rule there has given new life to their allies inside Pakistan, who have demanded stricter enforcement of Islamic law and a reduced Pakistani military presence in the border region the group uses to trade and travel between the two countries. After 15 years of insurgency, the TTP and the government reached a ceasefire agreement. That deal broke down last November as militants resumed attacks on Pakistani soldiers and police. Then last week, Pakistani officials blamed the TTP for a suicide bombing at a mosque that killed more than 100 people, and this raid is the first major security response. The TTP denies involvement in the mosque bombing.
Tributes are left at the site where an apartment block was heavily damaged by a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: Russia lashes out, Khan ups election ante, China's population shrinks
Russia strikes civilians, braces for long war in Ukraine
At least 40 people died in Saturday's Russian missile strike on an apartment building in Dnipro, Ukraine's fourth-largest city, authorities said Monday. It was one of Russia's deadliest attacks against Ukrainian civilians since the invasion began, as Moscow doubles down on the strategy of targeting civilians to turn the tide of the war in its favor. Meanwhile, the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War on Sunday claimed that the Kremlin is preparing for a drawn-out conflict and a fresh mobilization to push back against Ukraine's military gains in recent months. What does that mean for Kyiv? That the US and its NATO allies will need to stay the course on providing weapons to keep the Russians at bay. Clearly on message, the UK on Friday announced that it would for the first time send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. This might open up a can of worms within NATO: Poland wants to supply the Ukrainians with German-made Leopard tanks but has yet to get the green light from Berlin, while the US, Germany, and France have so far only agreed to give Ukraine light armored vehicles. If they all go a step further and send in the heavy equipment, Vladimir Putin will know that Ukraine's friends remain committed to its defense and are less worried about Russia escalating.
Khan keeps pushing for snap election
Pakistan’s former PM Imran Khan, who was ousted last April, continues to try to force the government into holding early elections. In his latest maneuver, the 70-year-old former superstar cricketer has managed to dissolve the assembly of Punjab province, home to about half of the country's population. According to the rules, Punjab must elect a new legislature within 90 days. As Khan is threatening to dissolve another provincial assembly soon, potentially triggering snap elections in two of Pakistan’s four provinces, he has created a conundrum for his rival, current PM Shehbaz Sharif. Should Pakistan, which is dead broke, engage in two massive — and expensive — elections now and then again at their due date in November? Or should the government just give up and let Khan have his nationwide polls immediately? Considering that Khan’s popularity has only soared since his ouster, and even more so after the attempt on his life in October, he’s probably likely to dominate the election. But nobody gets to win a vote in Pakistan without the blessing of the all-powerful army, whom Khan has been gunning for. Will the generals he’s challenged so brazenly for many months let him return to power?