Hong Kong security law; Putin & the White House; India's TikTok ban

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:

What does Beijing's new security law mean for Hong Kong?

It means the end of one country, two systems. A lot of people are going to say, "Oh, well, it's only about certain cases and it's not getting rid of the entire independent judiciary. The Chinese government says it's not going to change the way you do business in Hong Kong." It is going to immediately put an immensely chilling effect on anyone that might want to utter a word opposed to Hong Kong democracy, communist party control, one state, two systems. It is going to be defined by the Chinese government. It's been completely written by them. The Hong Kong government didn't even see it. And it has less to do with how they're going to apply it as their ability to use it as a threat against anyone that might otherwise want to demonstrate, want to write or speak about something that's problematic for China.


If you are an investment type or a corporate type, and you've set up your business in Hong Kong to have access to the Chinese market, but you want to make sure your expats and your business are in a place that has rule of law and an independent judiciary, the idea that you're going to be able to do that going forward in Hong Kong is really not the case. And so, it's a question of when you decide to reduce that exposure, as opposed to whether this is the tipping point for Hong Kong relations with the West and with China.

Second, will we see a Putin White House visit before the United States election?

I don't expect so. I mean, it's possible, but Trump isn't gaining any support by cozying up to Putin right now. Of course, this issue about whether he did or did not know personally about the Kremlin providing direct cash payments to members of the Taliban for targeting and killing American soldiers on the ground there, is only making the Russia issue worse. Even some Republicans in the House and Senate have raised some questions around that. None of America's allies want Russia to be invited to the G7 Summit, which Trump is trying to host. And if he's not welcomed, then Putin is not just going to show up to be on the sidelines. And the idea that Trump's going to have a separate White House meeting with Putin in the next few months, seems to me one that would be shat upon by pretty much every Trump advisor around him. And so I would say, no, that's probably not going to happen.

What does India's TikTok ban mean for the social media company?

Well, I mean almost 60 apps banned overnight by the Indian government. All Chinese apps, all the result of the confrontation in the border zone, in the Himalayas between the Indians and the Chinese. The Chinese killed some 20 Indian soldiers. They've tried to deescalate, and the Indians are not going to engage militarily because they have nowhere close to the capabilities militarily the Chinese do. They'd get pasted, but this is a response. It's a strong economic response. And the Indian government is also looking to promote their own tech firms.

TikTok in particular, something like almost A hundred million downloads since the beginning of the year in India. It's an extraordinary explosion of success for that company, but also one that is more than happy to censor anti-Chinese content. But when the Indian government requests them to censor anti-Indian content, they don't do it. Very different from Facebook. All of that put together is why TikTok got banned. And it's not clear that the Chinese have anything useful to do against the Indians, because if they hit them back economically India is critical for a lot of key pharmaceutical ingredients that the Chinese particularly need right now in a pandemic. I really don't think the Chinese want to go that route, so it may well be that a that they get away with this. And that's where we are.

Finally, what are the odds that you, meaning me, will be visiting Europe before the end of the year?

I think pretty low, honestly. Certainly, there are a bunch of events that are still, people trying to tell me they'd like to have me come various places by the end of the year, but we're probably going to see a second wave in the United States and in Europe. I think that as that occurs, the idea that people are going to be getting on planes in large numbers, attending events in large numbers, especially when Zoom and Microsoft products and all the rest seem to be working perfectly well, I think it's well until next year before you see significant international travel. And yeah, I'm going to be a part of that.

An abstract image of a brain with high tech neural connections. Get the latest from Microsoft on the most pressing policy issues.

Visit Microsoft on The Issues for a front-row seat to see how Microsoft is thinking about the future of sustainability, accessibility, cybersecurity and more. Check back regularly to watch videos, and read blogs and feature stories to see how Microsoft is approaching the issues that matter most. For the latest, visit Microsoft on the Issues.

The supply chain mess is hitting all of us. Inflation is now the highest it's been in over 30 years.

The costs of food, gas and housing are going through the roof. What's more, almost everything made outside of America is now in short supply — like semiconductors for our cars.

Why is this happening? A lot of it has to do with the pandemic. Asian factories had to shut down or thought there would be less demand for their stuff. So did shipping companies. But then online shopping surged, and now there's a lot of pent-up demand to spend all the cash we saved during COVID.

More Show less

The economic consequences of high inflation are already bad enough.

But for Larry Summers, sometimes the psychological trauma that comes with it can do even more damage to a society.

"A society where inflation is accelerating is a society that feels out of control."

More Show less
Should you believe the hype(rsonic)?

Over the past few months, US officials have become increasingly alarmed about a new type of killing machines called "hypersonic weapons."

The top US General, Mark Milley, said that China's successful test of an advanced hypersonic weapon earlier this year was "very close" to a "Sputnik moment" – referring to the Soviet Union's surprise launch of the world's first artificial satellite in 1957, which raised fears that the US was lagging behind a formidable technological rival.

More Show less

Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford's Cyber Policy Center, Eurasia Group senior advisor and former MEP, discusses trends in big tech, privacy protection and cyberspace:

What is Facebook planning with the metaverse?

Well, my sense is that Facebook mostly prefers a virtual reality over the actual situation the company is in, with overwhelming criticism about the many harms to people it is causing all over the world. The metaverse at launch would be added to a number of services and experiences online in a more virtual and augmented reality setting. Think about what the gaming sector has done, but now, also, other big tech firms are jumping on the bandwagon. The thing to remember is that the user experience would be more immersive.

More Show less

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:

Why did President Biden renominate Jay Powell to be the chairman of the Fed, and who's his No.2, Lael Brainard?

Well, Powell by all accounts has done a pretty good job of managing the Fed through the coronavirus pandemic. He dusted off the playbook, first pioneered by Chairman Bernanke during the financial crisis, and he's largely continued the relatively easy monetary policy of his predecessor at the Fed, now Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen. With inflation growing the way it has over the last several months, Biden now owns the policies of the Fed and is essentially endorsing what Powell has been doing and giving Powell the political cover to continue to keep rates low for longer, or as many people expect, raise them slightly over the next 12 months in order to fight inflation.

More Show less

When Kyle Rittenhouse was acquitted on all counts, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Nikole Hannah-Jones, who created the "1619 Project" tweeted: "In this country, you can even kill white people and get away with it if those white people are fighting for Black lives. This is the legacy of 1619." In an upcoming interview with Ian Bremmer, she explains why she saw the verdict as a consequence of this country's long history of double standards when it comes to racial justice. "The fact that we own more guns in this country than any other country is certainly a legacy of 1619" Hannah-Jones says. "This idea that white Americans can patrol, that they have the right to open carry, this is not something that Black Americans can engage in, in the same way." Watch her full conversation with Ian Bremmer in an upcoming episode of GZERO World.

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at Peng Shuai's public appearance, El Salvador's "Bitcoin City," and Americans' Thanksgiving celebrations.

Why has China silenced its famous tennis player, Peng Shuai?

Well, they haven't completely silenced her in the sense that the head of the IOC, the International Olympic Committee with Beijing Olympics coming up, basically told the Chinese government, "hey, what is the absolute minimum that you can do so that we can get Beijing Olympics back on track?" And they did the absolute minimum, which was a half an hour phone call with her that felt like kind of a hostage phone call. But nonetheless, she says that she is fine and is private and doesn't want to talk about the fact that she had accused the former Vice Premier of sexually assaulting her. That is a fairly heady charge. It was clear, going to get a lot of headlines in the run-up to the Olympics. And she wasn't heard from after that. So big problem for the Chinese in the run-up to the Olympics.

More Show less

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

How did we get to today's supply chain mess?

GZERO World Clips

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal