What We’re Watching: Haiti’s interim PM under pressure, A Russian, a Ukrainian, and an American leader walk into a peace talk, and US armada heads to Iran

US sends warning to Haiti

On Friday, US officials warned the transitional council in charge of Haiti not to remove interim Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, ahead of a deadline for the council to step down on Feb. 7. The unelected council took charge in Haiti last year aiming to bring stability to a country where gangs still control roughly 90% of the capital. The US says removing Aimé would undermine efforts to combat violence, and warned that Haiti’s lawmakers would pay “a heavy price.” The council - which has tentatively announced elections in August - could keep Aimé on as prime minister after the deadline passes, though it’s not clear if the council will step down before then either. Coming on the heels of the US action in Venezuela, that threat rings especially loud. But it's unclear what the US seeks for Haiti. A United Nations-backed mission led by Kenyan police to address violence in Haiti has had limited success, and the US hasn’t signaled willingness to lend its own troops in the future.

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Russia, Ukraine, and the US meet for first time to talk peace

Delegations from the three countries are meeting for two days in Abu Dhabi to try to hammer out a deal after nearly four years of war. The key sticking point: territory. Russia wants lands beyond the current front lines in order to assume full control over five eastern Ukrainian regions. Kyiv refuses: why give up land they’ve lost tens of thousands of lives defending? What’s more, the extra territory Russia wants is home to a “fortress belt” of cities that would be essential to repel future Russian attacks. Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s ongoing airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have now left a million Ukrainians without electricity, water, or heat in the dead of winter. (For more on that, see this recent, shivering report from Kyiv by GZERO’s Riley Callanan.)

US repositions forces toward Iran

A US naval armada heading toward Iran reflects the Trump administration's mounting strategic challenge: preparing for potential conflicts across multiple global theaters. Following a crackdown on protests in Iran that human rights group say left an estimated 5,000 people dead, Trump emphasized the US is "watching very closely." The deployment also likely repositions some forces assembled around Venezuela, where operations against strongman Nicolás Maduro required the largest US regional presence since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now facing potential contingencies spanning Iran, Greenland, and the Caribbean, the military is adapting to capacity constraints. As one defense official told the Atlantic, "That's a lot of theaters at the same time, and we are not built to do that."