Who comes next in Iran’s leadership succession? Karim Sadjadpour says “almost everyone” inside both Iranian society and the regime is waiting for 86-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei to die. Even elements of the Revolutionary Guards know “this status quo is not tenable,” but fear of surveillance and repression makes any internal coup too risky —for now.

That raises a bigger question: does Khamenei’s looming succession make external military action more tempting or more dangerous? Sadjadpour calls it a “51-49” decision. “Military attack is a gamble,” he warns.