NOTE: This episode was recorded before the US and Israel launched strikes into Iran. While events have moved quickly since then, the geopolitical state of play and key thinking leading up to this attack remains relevant.

Despite ongoing negotiations, President Trump is signaling that military pressure may be the only way to force Tehran’s hand. This week, Ian Bremmer speaks with Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, who argues the president’s past Iran gambles have “been vindicated”, making further action more likely.

If strikes come, Iran has hinted that they’re going to regionalize the war, potentially targeting US bases or Gulf oil infrastructure. Inside Iran, meanwhile, there is “no country in the world with a greater gap between the aspirations of its people and the conduct of its government.” Whether escalation weakens the regime or strengthens it, Sadjadpour cautions, “military attack is a gamble”—and “no one can predict what comes after that.”