Iran conflict fueled food crisis, Rapper set to win in Nepal, US gives Russia sanction relief

Iran conflict could trigger a food crisis

Disruptions to a key Gulf waterway in the Iran conflict aren't just threatening the world’s oil and gas supplies; they could also cause a food security crisis. Roughly a quarter to a third of global raw materials used in fertilizer pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With tanker traffic in the strait largely at a standstill, shortages could follow, eventually raising costs for farmers and, in turn, grocery bills. Egyptian fertilizer, a global benchmark, is already up more than 25% just as farmers in the Western hemisphere prepare to plant spring crops, with no clarity on next year's input costs. The disruption echoes the surge in fertilizer prices and food costs in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The impact could be acute in Gulf countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, which import around 80% of their food.

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Rapper poised to win (election) battle in Nepal

Nepalis voted on Thursday in the first election since a Gen Z–led uprising forced a prime minister tainted by corruption allegations to resign last year. Vote counts so far show that Balendra Shah and his newly-formed Rastriya Swatantra Party are leading by a wide margin, powered by voters frustrated with the country’s long-dominant parties. If the party wins a majority of seats, which appears imminent, the 35-year-old rapper-turned-mayor of Kathmandu will become prime minister. He and other young candidates say they would overhaul entrenched corruption, bring “fresh voices” into government, and focus on practical reforms like improving city planning, education policy, and economic opportunity to keep young Nepalis from leaving the country to work abroad.

US gives Russia some sanctions relief, for now

With the widening war in the Middle East pushing up energy prices, the US has granted a 30-day exemption to sanctions on Russian oil going to India. The measure allows New Delhi, one of Russia’s biggest buyers, to accept purchases already en route to its shores. Last year, the Trump administration hit India with 25% tariffs in order to starve the Kremlin of revenue for its ongoing war in Ukraine. But with Persian Gulf oil exports slowing to a trickle as a result of the US-Israel war with Iran, US gas prices rising to their highest levels in a year, and some regional officials now warning of a potential total shutdown of production, the White House is moving to ease the pressure, even if it gives what the US called a “short term” boost to the Kremlin. Meanwhile, reports suggest Russia has been helping Iran to target US troops, though it’s not clear how effective that intelligence has been.