New fronts of Iran conflict, A better week for Russia than Ukraine, US and Spain butt heads

Iran conflict hits new fronts

Two Iranian drones hit Azerbaijan, Iran’s northern neighbor, on Thursday, injuring four people and expanding the Iran conflict onto another front. The Azeris, who have a tense relationship with the Islamic Republic over their growing ties to NATO countries, have reportedly deployed troops to the Iranian border, which they say is out of defense. This comes after NATO shot down an Iranian missile that was headed toward Turkey – Tehran denied firing the missile. Meanwhile, Kurdish forces are reportedly readying armed units to cross from Iraq into Iran. The US and Israel want the Kurds – an ethnic group that spans Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey – to get involved, possibly to act as ground troops for their coalition. The CIA even gave small weapons to Kurdish militias ahead of this conflict. Kurdish involvement in this conflict could present a major risk: if the Kurds were to be successful in helping to topple the regime, Iran could end up getting divided along ethnic lines.

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Ukraine’s drone know-how is an American asset against Iran, but Russia is the real winner

While the war with Iran escalates, Ukraine says the US is turning to Kyiv for its hard-earned expertise in countering Shahed drones, which Iran has launched more than 2,000 times since last Saturday. Mass-produced cheaply by Russia and Iran, Shaheds are so inexpensive that using sophisticated US missile defense interceptors — which can cost up to $3 million per shot, compared to $50,000 to manufacture each drone — is wildly uneconomical. They are also in short supply in Ukraine. Because of this, its army has been forced to innovate. As its supply of gold-standard interceptors, Patriot air systems, dwindles, Kyiv has developed far cheaper and more improvised countermeasures — at times as rudimentary as deploying fishing nets — to bring the drones down. Now, with US air defense resources shifting to the Middle East, Ukraine may have to rely even more heavily on those homegrown tactics. Meanwhile, Russia, which was stretched thin by sanctions and war spending, could get a revenue boost from elevated oil prices as the conflict chokes oil shipments in the Gulf.

US-Spain ties in crisis over Iran war

A new transatlantic spat has emerged, this time between Washington and Madrid, after Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez refused to allow the US to use Spanish bases as part of the war with Iran. Sánchez, a left-winger, has blasted the US-Israel campaign as a violation of international law and an echo of the doomed 2003 invasion of Iraq. In response, US President Donald Trump has threatened to cut off trade with Spain, a NATO member, which he has also criticized for not meeting the US condition of 5% of GDP on defense spending (Spain was granted an exemption last year.). Sánchez’s stand is popular with his left-wing coalition but has drawn fire from the center-right and far-right opposition. It also puts him at odds with a growing number of EU members who have now grudgingly supported the war. If Trump really does impose severe penalties on Spain, that could test the bloc’s unity. How would Brussels respond?