Modi and Trump finally make up
After months of simmering tensions, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump – two old friends – finally reached an agreement: Washington will drop tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to 18%, and in return, New Delhi will halt Russian oil purchases. Instead, it will buy from the US and possibly Venezuela. Trump had been pushing India, the second-largest buyer of Russian crude, to stop procuring it, but Modi refused to comply, in part because Indian refineries were benefitting from a discount. US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, imposed last November, changed the calculus, prompting Indian firms to reduce their purchases of Russian oil. The deal is a blow to the Russian state, which relies heavily on crude oil exports for its finances.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro will be the next world leader to seek a détente with Trump when he visits the White House today. Though Colombia is a traditional US ally, Petro and Trump have been publicly lambasting each other for a year. We’ll be watching to see if they can play nice today.
Turkey-Saudi rapprochement deepens
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman today in Riyadh. The two leaders long ago buried the hatchet over the Saudi government’s murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018, and they now want to deepen cooperation as major Sunni powers. They share an interest in backing the new Syrian government and in limiting Iranian influence. But uncertainty about Israeli ambitions and questions about Washington’s long-term regional commitment are driving another item on the agenda: Turkey wants to join the new Saudi-Pakistan strategic partnership. That would create a formidable triple alliance. Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella, Turkey’s NATO-level military, and Saudi Arabia’s deep pockets could reshape the Middle East. But it could also catch the attention of India, which has long been Pakistan’s principal strategic rival.
Sign of peace in war-torn Congo
The United Nations is deploying its first peacekeeping mission in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, aimed at enforcing a ceasefire between the Congolese government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. The peace pact was initially signed last June in Washington, D.C., but hasn’t been successfully enforced, and violence has persisted in the region. Nonetheless, the entry of the UN mission marks a sign of progress. The current conflict has been ongoing since 2022, but various wars have ravaged the region in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
