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Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Portugal's PM Antonio Costa during a press conference in Lisbon.
Brazil & EU tussle over war but want to talk trade
On his first European trip since taking office in January, Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was hoping to win final support for a free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) that’s been stuck since 2019. So far, he’s been booed in Portugal for his controversial remarks on the war in Ukraine following a visit to China, but he doubled down on this rhetoric in Lisbon over the weekend.
Still, neither Lula's position nor the European backlash to his Ukraine balancing act is the real story here. The bigger issue is whether the EU and Mercosur will ever sign on the dotted line amid troublesome LatAm politics and Green jitters across the pond.
Lula is worried that if he waits too long to close the deal on Brazil's terms, the fast-approaching October election in Argentina could soon start to complicate things, not to mention Uruguay pursuing a separate FTA with China. For their part, France and Germany seem to have given up their reservations about Amazon deforestation during the Bolsonaro years, but environmentalists in Europe remain skeptical of Lula walking the talk.
When the Brazilian president meets Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez on Tuesday, don't be surprised if they talk more about trade than war. After all, Lula is still eager to trade more with the EU, and Spain takes over the EU presidency in July.A hostess stands before the opening of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, (FOCAC) in Dakar, Senegal.
Hard Numbers: China-Africa trade hits new high, record remittances to Central America, Barry Manilow vs protesters, Indian government vs Chinese apps
254 billion: Trade between Africa and China reached an all-time high of $254 billion in 2021, up more than a third from the previous year. But most of the increase came from a jump in Chinese exports, which continue to dwarf Africa’s exports to China.
15: To disperse ongoing demonstrations against the country’s strict covid policies, New Zealand authorities tried blaring a 15-minute loop of Barry Manilow’s greatest hits and the famously insufferable (but curiously addictive) Macarena. Undaunted, the protesters — inspired by the Canadian “Freedom Convoy” — remain outside the parliament building. PM Jacinda Ardern says the protests are “imported.”
54: The Indian government has reportedly banned at least 54 more Chinese apps, citing their threat to privacy and security. With broader economic and strategic tensions rising between the two Asian giants, Delhi has banned more than 220 Chinese apps over the past two years.
25: Remittances to Mexico and several Central American countries soared 25 percent last year, reaching historical levels as the US’ pandemic stimulus and broader economic recovery put more cash in workers’ hands. In Honduras and El Salvador, money sent back from overseas now accounts for a quarter of the economy.
How a “President Biden” could reshape US foreign policy
If the 2016 presidential election taught us anything, it's that only fools make predictions. So let's give it a go! In this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer poses a basic question: If Joe Biden wins the presidency how would he reshape U.S. foreign policy? Anne-Marie Slaughter, who served as a top State Department official under President Obama and now runs the think tank New America, weighs in.
Biden's trade strategy
If Joe Biden is elected president next month, how will he change US trade policy? It's a question with serious pocketbook implications for Americans and all US trade partners.
Trade has become more popular in the US in recent years. In 2012, when Gallup asked Americans what "trade means for the United States," respondents were evenly divided between the options "opportunity for economic growth" and "threat to the economy." The more positive view of trade has risen each year since, and when Gallup posed the same question earlier this year, "opportunity" topped "threat" by a margin of 79-18. According to Gallup, this is a point on which Republicans and Democrats agree.
This survey did not focus only on trade in the abstract. Some 80 percent of respondents told Gallup that they consider the USMCA deal, President Trump's update on NAFTA that was finalized earlier this year, to be "good for the country."
Yet, much depends on the makeup of the next Congress and its willingness to renew the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) —which allows the president to submit a trade deal to Congress for a simple up-or-down vote without the involvement of lawmakers in the deal's details— before it expires on July 1, 2021. Many Republicans will oppose anything that gives a President Biden more power, and many Democrats will insist on a say in the labor, environmental, and climate provisions of any new deals.
So, how might a President Biden approach trade?
The central question centers on China. Though Republicans favor a tougher approach, opposition to Chinese trade practices and theft of intellectual property enjoys bipartisan support, and Biden probably wouldn't move to lower the Trump tariffs quickly or without some concessions from Beijing. That said, escalation of the trade war looks unlikely as Biden tries to put the increasingly combative US-China relationship on a more constructive path.
Biden's different approach to China would also help define US trade policy toward allies. Many European and Asian governments share Washington's frustrations with China's ability to use loopholes in World Trade Organization rules to continue its policy of "state capitalism," China's system of direct state financial and political support for both state-owned and private Chinese companies that compete with foreign firms.
As part of a broader strategy to build a more united international front against China's trade practices, Biden is likely to end President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on Europe and to remove the threat of auto tariffs. That would offer a quick boost to Transatlantic relations.
A Biden administration would also move forward on a trade deal with post-Brexit Great Britain, but the end of TPA might delay it indefinitely. Biden is also less likely to threaten trade action against Japan, South Korea, Australia and other Pacific allies, but there are probably too many legislative obstacles for a US return to the Trans-Pacific Partnership anytime soon.
The return of Democrats to power would also mean a return to emphasis on the environmental and climate provisions of any trade deal. That's bad news for those who support a US deal with Brazil, where Jair Bolsonaro continues to enable deforestation in the Amazon.
Bottom line. There are two dominant factors that will shape the Biden trade strategy: His bid to build a more unified international front against China's state-capitalist trade practices, and the limits imposed on his negotiators if, as expected, Congress fails to extend TPA next summer.What We're Watching: China’s Trade War Fightback and the Internet’s Role in Mass Shootings
China's trade war retaliation – China let the value of its currency, the renminbi, fall sharply against the US dollar on Monday to its lowest level in a decade. It also reportedly told state-run companies to stop buying from US farmers. Global stock markets plunged. Both moves were aimed squarely at the US and President Trump, who last week threatened to slap tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese goods if Beijing didn't bow to US trade demands. By allowing the renminbi to slip, Beijing is withdrawing an olive branch, signaling that it is no longer willing to keep its currency artificially strong (and its exports less competitive) while talks with the US proceed. Suspending farm purchases is a direct jab at Trump himself; it increases financial pressure on US farmers, an important political constituency for the president. Taken together, China is saying: We're not going to take the latest US threats lying down. In response, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin branded China a "currency manipulator" – a largely symbolic move that may have been intended to forestall an even more aggressive response by the White House. We're watching to see whether the two sides can avoid further escalation.
The "gamification" of mass violence – On Sunday, an apparent white supremacist murdered 20 people at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, minutes after posting a racist, anti-immigrant manifesto on the website 8chan. It was the third mass shooting this year advertised beforehand on the website, where some anonymous commentators cheer on gunmen by posting ironic memes and encouraging them to get a "high score." The El Paso shooter said he had been inspired by an Australian man who killed 51 Muslims in New Zealand in January, who broadcasted a live, first-person video of his murder spree on Facebook as though it were a video game. We're watching what others have dubbed the "gamification" of mass violence, because it's increasingly clear that the internet and social media's ability to help people with violent, fringe views find and draw inspiration from one another is fueling these mass shootings, and it's not clear how governments can stop it.
What We're Ignoring:
The Turkmen president's proof of life – A couple of weeks ago, we highlighted dubious reports that Turkmenistan's strongman president, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, had died from kidney failure. State television said he was merely on holiday. On Sunday, the national broadcaster offered proof of life: a report showed the Turkmen leader driving a rally car near a giant flaming crater in the middle of the desert, then receiving a standing ovation from spectators dressed in identical track suits after rolling three strikes at a bowling lanes. We are ignoring this story, because it illustrates the basic principle that Turkmenistan is an endless rabbit hole of fun that keeps us from other stories. Unless you live there.
US-China Trade Talks Turn Ugly: World in 60 Seconds
Is global cooperation on climate change possible?
Sure, it's possible and as it gets worse, increasingly populations around the world, especially young people, are making it a priority. We've seen it in Finland, we see it in Australia. We see it even among left and right among young people the United States. That makes me feel, over time, we're going to see more cooperation.
How will the ANC - The African National Congress - fare in South Africa's elections?
They will win. But they're going to get a lot lower than they have in recent elections. They'll be lucky to get 60%. That makes it harder for Ramaphosa to actually engage in the anti-corruption that they desperately need. They need to go through what Brazil went through to make that country really work and the growth is going be slow.
Can Trump clinch a trade deal with China by Friday?
Well no, but I'd be really surprised if the Chinese do not back away from the backtracking they were already doing the last couple weeks. They were feeling more confident. They thought they had a deal with Trump that was basically in the bag. They backed off. Trump hit him hard with a couple of tweets. They do not want to see these big tariffs coming in. I'd be real surprised if we don't still move towards a deal. The markets will be happier and Trump will have something to announce. It will be positive.
Trump Forces China's Hand: US Politics in 60 Seconds
Can trump stop Robert Mueller from testifying on Capitol Hill?
No, he can't stop it. He could try to slow it down with legal challenges, maybe even invoke executive privilege, but he cannot stop it.
What's up with all of Trump's tweets about China over the weekend?
I'm told by an administration official that Trump is trying to force China's hand to get a deal done by Friday, it could backfire. The Chinese do not like these kind of tactics.
Can Jared Kushner get his immigration plan through Capitol Hill?
No, there's people lining up on left and right already opposing it. Immigration had proved incredibly challenging over the last decade to get anything done. And Jared Kushner is not going to be the one who solves that.
Is Mayor Pete Buttigieg a moderate Democrat?
Well it's tough to slot him into any particular category but he's definitely more moderate than Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. He's also for 'Medicare for All' and fixing the environment. But he does care about debt and deficits and the long term impact on his generation.
And go deeper on topics like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence Microsoft On The Issues.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Goes to China: China in 60 Seconds
US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin travels to China this week to try and secure a trade deal, will he be successful?
It's China in 60 Seconds with Kevin Rudd!
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