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25 years later, is Brexit unraveling Northern Ireland’s delicate peace?
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended decades of bloody violence in Northern Ireland, as paramilitary groups agreed to disarm. The agreement was such a watershed that US President Joe Biden is expected to visit Belfast and the Republic of Ireland this week to mark its 25th anniversary.
But the stability of the 1.8-million-strong country has been thrown into question as a result of Brexit-induced bedlam.
Indeed, post-Brexit negotiations over trade and border arrangements have sparked some violence and raised fears of broader destabilization, prompting Britain's MI5 intelligence agency to recently raise the domestic terror threat level in Northern Ireland from “substantial” to “severe.”
Twenty-five years after the landmark accord — also known as the Belfast Agreement — how stable is the situation in Northern Ireland, and how has Brexit threatened the status quo?
A Troubled backstory
The region has long been mired in violence, particularly since the partition of Ireland in the 1920s, which gave rise to a bloody civil war. While the North remained under British control, the southern Ireland Free State formed the basis of an independent Ireland. The well-known Irish Republican Army, also known as the Provos, survived the civil war and continued to agitate against the British.
But the modern conflict arose in the 1960s, when Irish republicans (nationalists), most of whom were Catholic, began protesting against the Northern Irish government, made up of pro-UK Protestants that they claimed were discriminating against them. While it was not a religious conflict, tensions flared along denominational lines.
Indeed, civil rights demonstrations morphed into deadly sectarian clashes, and nationalist paramilitary groups on both sides engaged in terrorism to further their aims. In a move that deepened divisions, the British government deployed troops to the North in 1969.
The bloody 30-year period that followed — depicted in iconic films like “In the Name of the Father” and “Hidden Agenda” — became known as the Troubles.
A delicate peace is born
While campaigning for the US presidency in 1992, Bill Clinton vowed to help promote peace in Northern Ireland if elected – and he followed through, adopting a new approach that eventually granted constitutional legitimacy to the IRA as a step towards full normalization. Clinton also allowed Gerry Adams, president of the political arm of the IRA (Sinn Féin), an exemption to visit the US for 48 hours to further peace talks.
As part of the agreement, which set out a political system based on shared power, both sides committed to releasing hundreds of political prisoners and to a sweeping review of policing in Northern Ireland. The hope was that mutual recognition would pave the way for greater communal integration.
Beyond cessation of violence, what else was the Good Friday Agreement trying to achieve?
“Human rights and equality are central to the Good Friday Agreement,” says Professor Colin Harvey of Queen University’s School of Law in Belfast. Harvey, who grew up in conflict-plagued Derry in the 1970s and 80s, says that 2023 compared to the 1990s is like night and day. “Young people growing up today in cities like Belfast and Derry are growing up in a very different environment from that violence.”
“The agreement holds out a vision of a better society,” he says, adding that “the peace process is not only about ending violence but also delivering transformative change for individuals and communities.”
Much of this is still a work in progress, he notes, pointing out that Northern Ireland still doesn’t have a Bill of Rights.
The Brexit effect
The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has served as the most destabilizing force in Northern Ireland since the Troubles. That’s because most Northern Irelanders didn’t want to leave the Union — 56% voted against the move compared to 44% who backed Brexit.
The Good Friday Agreement rejected any sort of hard border between the two provinces to allow for the free flow of goods and tariff-free trade within the United Kingdom and the European Union. But by creating a hard border between the two provinces — meaning that Northern Ireland is subject to UK trade rules while Ireland remains part of the EU’s Schengen Economic Area — there are fears that age-old anxieties are remerging, putting mounting pressure on the power-sharing arrangement.
What’s more, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approach to the withdrawal agreement failed to skillfully address these sticking points and only added fuel to the fire — literally. This caused a spate of violent riots in 2021, driven in large part by extreme loyalists and disillusioned youth.
Economic disruption: Since the Belfast Agreement, the EU has doled out huge amounts of aid to Northern Ireland to help boost domestic industries and peace projects with an eye toward building and supporting a stable society.
The European Social Fund, for example, provided around €40 million ($44 million) a year for community organizations, infrastructure, and social inclusion projects but has since halted operations due to Brexit. As a result, many community centers, including those providing mental and maternal health services, now say they will be forced to shut their doors due to inadequate funding.
While London has offered some sort of alternative, “it is clear that the UK government’s replacement for this is inadequate,” Harvey says, referring to the remaining funding gap.
Political stagnation: Disagreements over how to implement a post-Brexit trade agreement have also turned Northern Ireland’s delicate political landscape upside down. The pro-British Democratic Unionist Party, the only political group that refused to back the Good Friday Agreement, has blocked the legislature from convening six times as a protest against the post-Brexit status quo.
Even after the British parliament recently passed a framework to govern post-Brexit trade rules, DUP hardliners continued to stonewall, saying that the need to follow at least some EU regulations undermines Belfast’s place within the United Kingdom.
Indeed, a dysfunctional legislature that can’t further a legislative agenda isn’t good for any society, let alone one as fractious as Northern Ireland’s.
What’s more, Westminster has been forced to pass some crucial legislation on Belfast’s behalf, including a state budget. Passing the buck for important legislation to London doesn’t bode well for the stability of the power-sharing arrangement.
But even before Brexit, Northern Ireland lacked the social cohesion that those involved in the peace process had hoped to foster.
Consider that just 7% of Northern Irish children attend integrated schools, and polls show that many kids don’t have friends from the other religious side. So-called peace walls separating Catholic and Protestant communities remain intact in many places, while separate teacher training and curricula for segregated schools reveal a still deeply divided society.
That’s in part because of a lack of political will among the province's two dominant parties — Sinn Féin, representing Irish nationalists, and the DUP, fervently loyal to the British monarchy.
Still, Harvey does not agree that the outlook for Northern Ireland is all doom and gloom. “It's important to underline that the underpinning peace process here is solid,” he says, adding, “I don’t think it is in jeopardy.”
“But in terms of societal transformation and changing the lives of individuals, there’s still much work to be done.”
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards a Ukrainian service member at a position near a frontline, in Donetsk region, Ukraine March 22, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Zelensky’s Bakhmut message, Rishi’s post-Brexit win, Trudeau’s take on Haiti, Ethiopia’s peace progress
Russia and Ukraine score points where they can
Volodymyr Zelensky visited frontline troops in war-ravaged Bakhmut, located in Ukraine’s eastern province of Donetsk, on Wednesday as Russian drones struck across the country. While planning for the trip was surely well underway before Vladimir Putin’s surprise stop in Russian-occupied Mariupol last weekend, the contrast underlined Zelenksy’s signal of defiance.
By appearing in Bakhmut very near the fighting, Zelensky reminded the world that, six months after Putin mobilized 300,000 new Russian soldiers for a deeper advance into Ukraine, even the small city of Bakhmut remains beyond their grasp.
In other war news, Russia has warned it will respond harshly to shipments from the UK to Ukraine of anti-tank munitions made from depleted uranium. Moscow claims this step adds an escalatory nuclear element to the conflict. In response, the UK insists the Russian position is propaganda, that the use of depleted uranium is common in anti-tank weapons, and that it contains nothing that can be used to make nuclear or radiological weapons. Finally, Russia has announced a plan to raise an additional $8 billion in revenue by changing the way oil profits are taxed.
All these stories underscore the reality that, while little has changed on the battlefield, Russians and Ukrainians are still looking for every small advantage they can gain in what looks increasingly like a war of attrition.
Has Brexit got “done” yet?
In a win for PM Rishi Sunak, the British House of Commons on Wednesday passed a reworked post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, which was agreed to last month with the European Commission.
Essentially, the proposal known as the Windsor Framework creates two lanes for trade: a faster-flowing green lane for goods transiting only between Britain and Northern Ireland and a red lane with more rigorous customs checks for goods bound for Ireland and elsewhere in the EU. It is unlikely to come into effect for several months as details are ironed out, officials say.
Still, despite the big margin of victory, more than 20 Tories – including Sunak’s two predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – voted against the measure, with Johnson saying it would mean that the UK won't be able to fully embrace the benefits of Brexit (what benefits, he didn’t say). It also signals that in the run-up to next year’s general election, Sunak will continue to deal with a vocal Euroskeptic wing within his party.
Meanwhile, six representatives from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party also rejected the vote, suggesting that the DUP would not lift its boycott on the Northern Ireland legislature, which began almost a year ago. The lack of resolution on this front will make for awkward optics as President Joe Biden heads to Belfast next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles.
Trudeau’s take on Haiti
President Joe Biden heads north on Thursday for his first presidential visit to Canada, where he and PM Justin Trudeau are expected to discuss a variety of issues, from defense and immigration to trade and Ukraine (see our look at likely agenda items here). But Biden is also expected to make some demands about … Haiti.
The situation in the Caribbean nation has deteriorated in recent months. Police have lost control to local gangs, and more than 200 Haitians were killed in the first half of March alone.
The Biden administration is reluctant to get more involved itself but wants Canada to take the lead in addressing the chaos in Haiti. Why Canada? The country has a long track record as a peacekeeper and has had prior involvement (for better or worse) in Haiti, making it an obvious choice from Washington’s perspective. An uptick in Haitian migrants seeking entry to the US and Canada raises that urgency further.
But Trudeau says that “outside intervention” can’t bring long-term stability to the country, and it’s hard to argue with the historical record on that. Meanwhile, many in Haiti worry that outsiders would merely prop up unelected acting PM Ariel Henry. And it didn’t help that Haiti’s largest newspaper ridiculed the recent deployment of two Canadian ships to patrol the coast.
All of this puts Trudeau in a tough spot: Biden wants him to be a reliable security partner beyond Ukraine, but the political fallout from a failed entanglement in Haiti could be disastrous for him. While the Canadian leader will likely make a commitment of some sort for Haiti, will it be enough to satisfy Biden or change the dynamics in Haiti itself?
*From trade and migration to defense, culture, and technology, the US and Canada need each other more than ever. To meet the moment, GZERO Media is launching GZERO North, a new weekly newsletter offering an insider’s guide to the very latest political, economic, and cultural news shaping both countries. Subscribe today!
Ethiopia, TPLF take steps in tenuous peace
The Ethiopian government is removing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from its list of terrorist organizations, part of a peace deal with the rebel group signed last November. The decision moves the country closer to what observers hope is an enduring peace after a brutal two-year civil war that has claimed an estimated 600,000 lives.
The situation is very delicate. The agreements don’t include all of the various combatants and are vague about who controls certain disputed territories. And while all sides reportedly committed war crimes, many Tigrayans believe the deal doesn’t hold the Ethiopian federal government accountable. PM Abiy Ahmed’s resistance to a UN investigation inspires little hope.
Still, the momentum is towards peace, for now. Economic interests are part of the reason why. Ethiopia is in bad shape, as the country is wracked by famine, drought, and an estimated reconstruction price tag of $20 billion. A lasting peace would enable Ethiopia to reopen two-year-old talks with the IMF on a $26 billion loan restructuring plan, which was interrupted by the war. Still, with so much bad blood – will these incentives be enough to bind the former combatants to a durable peace? All parties must still tread very carefully …
Israelis demonstrate during "Day of Resistance" as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist coalition government presses on with its contentious judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel.
What We’re Watching: Chaos in Israel, Franco-British thaw, Trump's deepening legal woes, Biden’s budget battle
Israel’s unraveling
The situation in Israel continued to unravel on Thursday when protesters against the government’s planned judicial overhaul took to the streets in a national “day of resistance.” In a bid to create a balagan (state of chaos), Israelis blocked the Ayalon Highway, a main artery leading to Tel Aviv’s international airport, to try to disrupt PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s planned trip to Rome (he got out)! Indeed, footage shows police using heavy-handed tactics to break up the crowds, but that didn’t appear tough enough for far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who proceeded to fire the Tel Aviv district commander, decrying police for “not fulfilling my orders.” Israel's attorney general has since ordered the freezing of the police chief's ouster, citing legal concerns. Meanwhile, in a very rare emotional speech, President Isaac Herzog – who holds a mostly ceremonial position and remains above the fray of day-to-day politics – urged the government to ditch the judicial reforms. Crucially, things took a turn for the worse Thursday night when a Palestinian gunman opened fire on gatherers in central Tel Aviv, wounding at least three people. With deepening twin crises at home – a constitutional catastrophe and deteriorating security situation – Bibi is going to have a harder time than ever keeping his discordant far-right coalition intact.
Are French-UK relations back on track?
After years of tension, UK-France relations appear to be on the mend! British PM Rishi Sunak travelled to France on Friday to meet with President Emmanuel Macron for the first summit between the countries in … five years. “It’s the beginning of a beautiful, renewed friendship,” a French diplomat said, which was presumably a dig at former PM Boris Johnson, who butted heads with Macron. What's on the agenda? Maintaining a united front against Russia, post-Brexit fishing rights in the English Channel (see this explainer on the great roe row here) and climate change mitigation. Crucially, they are also focusing on how to tackle an influx of migrants arriving by boat through the English Channel. After Sunak this week unveiled fresh legislation that would ban migrants who enter illegally from applying for asylum, a move broadly condemned as a violation of international law, London confirmed Friday that it will offer Paris a lot of cash to help patrol French beaches, which is where most small boats headed for the UK come from. While this meeting is mostly about showing the world that relations are warm and fuzzy, the timing is still a bit awkward: On Monday, Sunak will appear in San Diego along with President Joe Biden and Australian PM Anthony Albanese to unveil the next stage of the AUKUS agreement, the trilateral security pact that incensed the French who were pushed to the side.
Trump may soon face criminal charges
Is an indictment looming? Manhattan prosecutors offered former President Donald Trump the opportunity to testify before a grand jury that’s looking into his business dealings, including alleged payment of hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The offer to testify – most potential defendants decline – usually signals that an indictment is about to drop. Trump is expected to steer clear of the grand jury, but his lawyers will be fighting in his corner and meeting with the District Attorney’s office in a bid to dodge criminal charges. If they fail, Trump may become the first former US president to face indictment – and the NY-based case could be just the start. District Attorney prosecutors in Georgia are also investigating and expected to bring charges against Trump for alleged interference in the 2020 election, while federal prosecutors are investigating his bid to undermine the election outcome. Whatever happens, No. 45 says he will stay in the 2024 presidential race, and experts say there’s nothing legally barring him from running, even if he’s convicted.
Biden’s budget blast
The US president on Thursday unveiled a $6.8 trillion budget proposal that would beef up the military, protect and expand social programs, and slash the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade. How? By raising a slew of taxes on wealthier Americans (those who make more than $400 grand a year) and slapping a 25% tax on the wealth of billionaires. The budget as it currently stands has no chance of passing the GOP-controlled House — Speaker Kevin McCarthy immediately slammed the budget as “unserious” — but Biden knows that. The proposal is an opening salvo in what will be a bruising battle with Republicans, who say they want a balanced budget in order to raise the debt ceiling but have yet to produce a viable plan of their own. As Biden eyes 2024, that fiscal fight — in which he’ll highlight his progressive spending priorities — will be one of the cornerstones of his campaign.
India's G-20 agenda overshadowed by Ukraine war
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Delhi, India.
What was the outcome of the foreign ministers meeting of the G-20 countries here the other day?
Well, the Indians are trying to get the G-20 to focus on food security, energy security, to be the voice of the Global South in a complicated global situation. But of course, the meeting was dominated by the controversy over Russia's war with Ukraine. And while the Indonesian chairmanship last year managed to get the agreement on the text on that particular issue, this time the Russians, followed by the Chinese, are distinctly not. And the end result was there was no agreement. The Indians, anyhow, issued a communique noting that the Russians and the Chinese did not object and tried to focus the meeting as much as they could on issues that they considered important, rightly so, for the Global South in terms of the effect of the conflict.
Is the Brexit story over?
No, no, the Brexit story ain't over. But hopefully there is a solution to the issue of trade with Northern Ireland. And Prime Minister Sunak is saying that Northern Ireland has a unique position having access or could have access both to the British market, you know, rest of the United Kingdom and of course through the integrated European EU market. It doesn't really mention that that is something that the United Kingdom as a whole could have had had it not done the rather stupid move of Brexit some years ago.
Northern Ireland deal: an improvement, but "Brexit is never over" for UK, says David Miliband
How will the impact of Brexit continue to shape the future of the UK and its relationship with the EU? On GZERO World, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee David Miliband expresses his views on Brexit and the Northern Ireland deal agreed upon by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Miliband, who served as the UK's Foreign Secretary from 2007 to 2010, supports the new deal and views it as “more honest than previous ones,” but notes that Brexit is "a journey, not a destination. And it’s forever in its impact.”
He specifically points out the challenges faced by Northern Ireland and how Brexit has disrupted the Good Friday agreement, making it difficult for those living in North Ireland “to choose whether to be British or Irish, or both, as the agreement allowed.”
Miliband believes that while progress has been made, “there are still many aspects of national life where Brexit isn’t working,” and these need to be addressed.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Challenge of survival/Problem of governance: Aid for Turkey & Syria
- Northern Ireland trade deal ends Brexit but not UK's economic woes ... ›
- Podcast: "United" Kingdom? Tony Blair on Truss, Charles, Brexit, and division in UK & beyond ›
- What We’re Watching: End of Brexit? No, US-India tech alliance, Czechs checking China ›
- Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit troubles ›
- David Miliband and Ian Bremmer discuss the Atlas of Impunity - GZERO Media ›
- Macron's China visit hasn't moved Xi on Ukraine - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Survival is success: IRC’s David Miliband responds to “double crisis” in Turkey & Syria - GZERO Media ›
Northern Ireland trade deal ends Brexit but not UK's economic woes
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the UK finally move past Brexit now that a Northern Ireland trade deal has been resolved?
Oh, it's only been, what, six years. My God. And Brexit finally concluded now that Prime Minister Sunak has taken on his own Conservative Party and said, "No, we're just going to finally move on this." And people are sick of the economic challenges, that's, in part, why Truss got washed out so quickly as former PM, and it's also why he had the space to get this done. It means that you're not worried about the so-called hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and therefore, between the UK and the EU, and it means that the Brits can move on. But moving on, of course, still means that they no longer have integration with the world's largest common market, and that means that their performance economically will continue to drag below all of the rest of Europe and the United States, and that's really unfortunate. It's a massive own goal.
Will recent violence in the West Bank escalate into something more?
I expect so. I mean, keep in mind that you have no effective governance for the Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza, you've got an incredibly right-wing coalition government led by Bibi Netanyahu, with only the thinnest of margins to keep the coalition intact, and no interest in moving forward on a two-state solution, and a great deal of interest in taking more land from the Palestinians. I saw an op-ed written in Haaretz, an Israeli center-left newspaper, just the other day, that claimed that Netanyahu was pushing forward a policy apartheid. You don't see that kind of commentary in Israeli newspapers about their own government. This all implies a lot more fighting between Israelis and Palestinians. The Americans inflectionally pushing from the sidelines, nobody really prioritizing the conflict or the issue, either in the region or in Washington, and certainly the Israelis and the Palestinians not having remote political interests try to back down and come to the table. All of that implies a lot more fighting going forward.
Why are Mexicans protesting AMLO's electoral law change as well?
Because he's trying to undermine the influence of the electoral commission. New legislation being put forward, some of it seemed to be against the Constitution and pushed back by the Supreme Court in Mexico, but some of it moving forward. People are angry, just like they have been in lots of countries, lots of democracies, where democratic institutions are getting weakened. For example, in Israel on the Supreme Court, you've seen massive demonstrations. That's basically what you're seeing right now in Mexico, an awful lot of people turning out on the streets, as we saw last weekend, against an effort to undermine checks and balances in a democratic country. The good news is that these democratic institutions are stronger and more resilient than a lot of the headlines would have you believe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin walks to deliver his annual address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow.
What We’re Watching: Putin blames the West, China in Ukraine war, Sunak close to Northern Ireland deal
Putin blames the West … for everything
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin played all the greatest hits Tuesday when he took to the podium for a State of the Union address to Russian legislators and the military just days out from the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine war. In his typically defiant fashion, Putin said that the West “started the war” and warned that Moscow would not back down from its objectives in Ukraine, emphasizing Russian unity on the issue. He also revived the (debunked) justification that the war was crucial to “protect Russia and liquidate the neo-Nazi threat” from Kyiv. Crucially, Putin implied that Russia would break with the New START treaty, which limits Moscow and Washington to deploying 1,550 nuclear weapons a piece, though Russia has reportedly already exceeded that number. Suspending the treaty would also block the US from monitoring compliance. This comes just hours before US President Joe Biden will deliver a speech in Warsaw, where he is expected to again frame the war in Ukraine as a fight for democracy itself.
US-China exchange barbs over Ukraine
China on Monday denied US accusations that it might provide Russia with lethal aid — weapons — to attack Ukraine, telling Washington to stay out of its (albeit complicated) relationship with Moscow. After meeting Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, over the weekend at the Munich Security Conference, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that giving the Russians lethal aid would be a "serious problem" for Beijing, though he didn’t give further details. In the early stages of the war, the US sounded the alarm about Russia asking Beijing for help and China possibly looking to supply Russia with arms, despite the fact that Beijing actually buys weaponsfrom Moscow and doesn't sell any to the Russians. Ultimately, China didn't answer Russia’s plea for arms — likely to avoid Western sanctions. Now, however, Blinken says that Xi Jinping wants to have his cake and eat it too by calling in public for a negotiated peace in Ukraine while privately supplying Russia with all sorts of non-lethal stuff, such as spare parts for Su-35 fighter jets, to help Vladimir Putin defeat Ukraine. This week, we'll be keeping an eye on Wang as he travels to Moscow and perhaps meets with Putin ahead of a big Xi “peace” speech reportedly planned for Friday.
Brexit never (really) ends
As soon as Tuesday, British PM Rishi Sunak aims to finally confirm a deal with the EU on post-Brexit Northern Ireland trade rules. (Once again, this is the arrangement that his predecessor, Boris Johnson, reached with Brussels to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK.) Sunak hopes that the agreement will both restart Northern Ireland's power-sharing government, currently boycotted by DUP unionists who want to keep the EU at arm's length, and steal the thunder from hardcore Brexiteers within the Conservative Party led by Johnson who back a bill allowing British ministers to override provisions in the 2020 Brexit agreement. Still, it won’t be easy for Sunak to sell the deal to the DUP, which fears being perceived as selling out to Brussels, and to the Tory Euroskeptics, who want to have a say even if the agreement is not put to a vote in parliament. And all this, mind you, is just one of Sunak's myriad ongoing headaches … with Johnson looking over his shoulder.
Ukraine dominates the dialogue in Munich
While there are many security risks and global challenges on the agenda at this year’s Munich Security Conference, none have dominated the dialogue more than Ukraine as the war there enters a second year with no clear end in sight. From mainstage speeches to a giant banner hanging across the street from the conference venue that reads, “Ukraine Is You,” unity among Western allies is the clear message.
While there’s truth to that overall, there are many nuances and differences in approach from country to country—Estonia, for example, taking a much more absolutist stance against Vladimir Putin even as France’s President Emmanuel Macron begins to talk about Europe’s relationship with Russia after the war is over.
GZERO Media is on the ground in Munich to cover the conference at this critical moment for Europe and the world, and Chief Content Officer Tony Maciulis caught up with our colleague Mij Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group, to break down some of the big stories of the day.
The two talked about European unity, the ongoing impact of Brexit, and who, if anyone, is emerging as a clear leader for the EU overall.