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First Minister Michelle O'Neill during an interview with PA Media, on the day Ms O’Neill became Northern Ireland's first nationalist First Minister. Saturday February 3, 2024
Northern Ireland names first Sinn Fein leader
After two long years, Northern Ireland once again has a functioning government – and in a historic move, it has named Michelle O’Neill as the first-ever First Minister from Sinn Fein. The party, which served as the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, won a majority of seats in the 2022 election.
The country’s unique “Good Friday Agreement” necessitates that unionists and nationalists share power, but that cooperation collapsed in 2022 over a dispute about post-Brexit trade rules with the EU. O’Neill will share power with Deputy Minister Emma Little-Pengelly, from the Democratic Unionist Party, which had dominated Northern Ireland’s politics for decades.
While the 47-year-old O’Neill favors the unity of the two Irelands, she downplayed that in the days leading to her appointment and pledged to continue “the work of reconciliation between all our people.” O’Neill’s father was imprisoned for IRA membership before transitioning to politics, but O’Neill herself is not an anti-monarchist, notably attending both Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral and the coronation of King Charles III last year.
Her government also has more pressing concerns: health care and cost-of-living issues. Nevertheless, O’Neill’s appointment gives hope to those who would like to one day see the two Irelands united.
25 years later, is Brexit unraveling Northern Ireland’s delicate peace?
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended decades of bloody violence in Northern Ireland, as paramilitary groups agreed to disarm. The agreement was such a watershed that US President Joe Biden is expected to visit Belfast and the Republic of Ireland this week to mark its 25th anniversary.
But the stability of the 1.8-million-strong country has been thrown into question as a result of Brexit-induced bedlam.
Indeed, post-Brexit negotiations over trade and border arrangements have sparked some violence and raised fears of broader destabilization, prompting Britain's MI5 intelligence agency to recently raise the domestic terror threat level in Northern Ireland from “substantial” to “severe.”
Twenty-five years after the landmark accord — also known as the Belfast Agreement — how stable is the situation in Northern Ireland, and how has Brexit threatened the status quo?
A Troubled backstory
The region has long been mired in violence, particularly since the partition of Ireland in the 1920s, which gave rise to a bloody civil war. While the North remained under British control, the southern Ireland Free State formed the basis of an independent Ireland. The well-known Irish Republican Army, also known as the Provos, survived the civil war and continued to agitate against the British.
But the modern conflict arose in the 1960s, when Irish republicans (nationalists), most of whom were Catholic, began protesting against the Northern Irish government, made up of pro-UK Protestants that they claimed were discriminating against them. While it was not a religious conflict, tensions flared along denominational lines.
Indeed, civil rights demonstrations morphed into deadly sectarian clashes, and nationalist paramilitary groups on both sides engaged in terrorism to further their aims. In a move that deepened divisions, the British government deployed troops to the North in 1969.
The bloody 30-year period that followed — depicted in iconic films like “In the Name of the Father” and “Hidden Agenda” — became known as the Troubles.
A delicate peace is born
While campaigning for the US presidency in 1992, Bill Clinton vowed to help promote peace in Northern Ireland if elected – and he followed through, adopting a new approach that eventually granted constitutional legitimacy to the IRA as a step towards full normalization. Clinton also allowed Gerry Adams, president of the political arm of the IRA (Sinn Féin), an exemption to visit the US for 48 hours to further peace talks.
As part of the agreement, which set out a political system based on shared power, both sides committed to releasing hundreds of political prisoners and to a sweeping review of policing in Northern Ireland. The hope was that mutual recognition would pave the way for greater communal integration.
Beyond cessation of violence, what else was the Good Friday Agreement trying to achieve?
“Human rights and equality are central to the Good Friday Agreement,” says Professor Colin Harvey of Queen University’s School of Law in Belfast. Harvey, who grew up in conflict-plagued Derry in the 1970s and 80s, says that 2023 compared to the 1990s is like night and day. “Young people growing up today in cities like Belfast and Derry are growing up in a very different environment from that violence.”
“The agreement holds out a vision of a better society,” he says, adding that “the peace process is not only about ending violence but also delivering transformative change for individuals and communities.”
Much of this is still a work in progress, he notes, pointing out that Northern Ireland still doesn’t have a Bill of Rights.
The Brexit effect
The UK’s decision to leave the European Union has served as the most destabilizing force in Northern Ireland since the Troubles. That’s because most Northern Irelanders didn’t want to leave the Union — 56% voted against the move compared to 44% who backed Brexit.
The Good Friday Agreement rejected any sort of hard border between the two provinces to allow for the free flow of goods and tariff-free trade within the United Kingdom and the European Union. But by creating a hard border between the two provinces — meaning that Northern Ireland is subject to UK trade rules while Ireland remains part of the EU’s Schengen Economic Area — there are fears that age-old anxieties are remerging, putting mounting pressure on the power-sharing arrangement.
What’s more, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approach to the withdrawal agreement failed to skillfully address these sticking points and only added fuel to the fire — literally. This caused a spate of violent riots in 2021, driven in large part by extreme loyalists and disillusioned youth.
Economic disruption: Since the Belfast Agreement, the EU has doled out huge amounts of aid to Northern Ireland to help boost domestic industries and peace projects with an eye toward building and supporting a stable society.
The European Social Fund, for example, provided around €40 million ($44 million) a year for community organizations, infrastructure, and social inclusion projects but has since halted operations due to Brexit. As a result, many community centers, including those providing mental and maternal health services, now say they will be forced to shut their doors due to inadequate funding.
While London has offered some sort of alternative, “it is clear that the UK government’s replacement for this is inadequate,” Harvey says, referring to the remaining funding gap.
Political stagnation: Disagreements over how to implement a post-Brexit trade agreement have also turned Northern Ireland’s delicate political landscape upside down. The pro-British Democratic Unionist Party, the only political group that refused to back the Good Friday Agreement, has blocked the legislature from convening six times as a protest against the post-Brexit status quo.
Even after the British parliament recently passed a framework to govern post-Brexit trade rules, DUP hardliners continued to stonewall, saying that the need to follow at least some EU regulations undermines Belfast’s place within the United Kingdom.
Indeed, a dysfunctional legislature that can’t further a legislative agenda isn’t good for any society, let alone one as fractious as Northern Ireland’s.
What’s more, Westminster has been forced to pass some crucial legislation on Belfast’s behalf, including a state budget. Passing the buck for important legislation to London doesn’t bode well for the stability of the power-sharing arrangement.
But even before Brexit, Northern Ireland lacked the social cohesion that those involved in the peace process had hoped to foster.
Consider that just 7% of Northern Irish children attend integrated schools, and polls show that many kids don’t have friends from the other religious side. So-called peace walls separating Catholic and Protestant communities remain intact in many places, while separate teacher training and curricula for segregated schools reveal a still deeply divided society.
That’s in part because of a lack of political will among the province's two dominant parties — Sinn Féin, representing Irish nationalists, and the DUP, fervently loyal to the British monarchy.
Still, Harvey does not agree that the outlook for Northern Ireland is all doom and gloom. “It's important to underline that the underpinning peace process here is solid,” he says, adding, “I don’t think it is in jeopardy.”
“But in terms of societal transformation and changing the lives of individuals, there’s still much work to be done.”
A woman looks out of a window displaying a campaign banner of Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Ramla, Israel.
What We’re Watching: Elections loom in Israel & Northern Ireland, Elon Musk rules Twitterverse
Round 5 in Israel: Can Bibi make a comeback?
Israelis are doing the voting thing all over again on Nov. 1 in the country’s fifth general election since 2019. To recap, the current government crumbled in June, a year after PM Yair Lapid successfully brought together an ideologically diverse coalition to oust former longtime leader Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. Still, current polls suggest that Israel’s melting pot – which includes Jews (secular to ultra-Orthodox), Muslims, Christians, and Druze – remains as divided as ever. Importantly, Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud Party is slated to win the most seats (as it did in the previous four elections) but (for now) is just shy of mustering enough support to cross the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government. One big change in this cycle is the momentum of three far-right parties that Bibi has courted to serve in his government. Together, the three could win up to 14 seats, suggesting that their extremist anti-Arab, anti-LGBTQ brand could become a more potent force within Israeli politics. Meanwhile, Lapid on Thursday signed a historic maritime deal with Lebanon, but Bibi says he might ditch it if he takes over, though many say this is just pre-election posturing.
Northern Ireland's voting merry-go-round
The country’s set for a snap election in December after political parties failed to elect a speaker and start forming a government in Northern Ireland before a Friday deadline. Since early May, the Democratic Unionist Party has been holding up the power-sharing agreement with Sinn Féin over the status of the Irish frontier. The UK's post-Brexit trade deal with the EU scrapped a physical border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. That means Northern Ireland has to comply with some EU regulations for cross-border trade, which for the DUP undermines its position within the UK. Since the unionists are chummy with the UK's ruling Conservative Party, unionists want London to step in. But newly minted PM Rishi Sunak has enough on his plate trying to rescue the British economy and hardly wants to pick a fight with Brussels. What’s next? The Northern Irish will go to the polls again, but regardless of how many seats the DUP and Sinn Féin win, these bitter enemies are required to share power under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. Still, the longer the impasse continues, the louder the calls for post-Brexit Northern Ireland to ditch the UK will get.
Elon Musk takes over Twitter
Feathers are already flying. Elon Musk finalized a $44 billion deal to take control of Twitter on Thursday, ending months of speculation, flip-flops, and legal battles. Within hours, four top execs — the CEO, CFO, head of legal policy, trust, and safety, as well as the general counsel — were shown the door. A vocal critic of Twitter’s content moderation, the South African-born tech giant has said he wants the platform to be a “de facto town hall” where free speech reigns. He’s called the permanent ban of Donald Trump’s account — the former president was barred after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot — a “morally bad decision.” While it remains unclear whether Trump would rejoin, having recently launched his own Twitter-style platform, Truth Social, the Twitterverse has erupted with predictions about when America’s 45th commander-in-chief might once again spread his little blue wings. We suspect that Russian President Vladimir Putin will also be pleased. Expect fireworks in the wake of Sunday’s Brazilian election and the Nov. 8 US midterms.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s win, corruption and kleptocracy in the Philippines
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines? Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next? Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines?
Well, it was a big win, almost 30 points over his opponent, and the first time we've seen an absolute majority in Philippines history for the presidency. Not huge changes expected in governance. Let's keep in mind that the vice president is actually the daughter of President Duterte, who's just leaving power. The president and the vice presidents here are actually... Those elections are held separately, and so you can have different parties that actually win, and frequently do, which is sort of an unusual twist to the Philippines. Pro-foreign direct investment, generally pro-markets, a little bit more of a US and Western tilt as opposed to Duterte, whose military really was skeptical of China, but he personally was more engaged with Beijing. The big question is what's the cabinet going to look like, how independent, how technocratic, or is there going to be a lot of corruption, a lot of kleptocracy? Keeping in mind that Bongbong, the new president, is the son of Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos, who were drummed out for an extraordinary abuse of power in the Philippines before. So what everyone's going to be watching.
Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next?
Well, I mean, since we're talking about kleptocracy, let's keep in mind that the president is the younger brother of the now resigned prime minister, and they've let go a bunch of... You've got the ministers of finance that have been sort of a revolving door recently. This is the worst economic crisis of Sri Lanka's history. And it's led to a lot of demonstrations, mass protests, a lot of violence, and that's why the PM is gone. But there's also a state of emergency. The military, the police are out in force, the president clearly trying his damnedest to avoid having to step down. And the real question is going to be how explosive the situation on the ground is. Could this become sort of a mass-driven coup, and might you see some splits in the military as a consequence of that?
Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer?
Well, yeah, of course it's closer in the sense that you now have a party, a Catholic party, that's won for the first time, more history, in Northern Ireland that is interested in a unionist position on Ireland. And Brexit of course did set this off, but a strong majority of citizens in Northern Ireland do not support even a referendum on unification, and certainly don't support unification, though Sinn Féin has said that they'd like to have such a vote within five years. More importantly is that this is going to be used, the Sinn Féin victory, by Boris Johnson and his Tory government to push for changing the rules agreed with the European Union in the breakup, on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, Northern Ireland and Europe. And that has the potential to really disrupt, further disrupt, UK-EU trade over the course of the next 12 months. So in the near-term, that's the problem. In the long-term, no question there's more pressure on political devolution and disillusion in the not so United Kingdom.
Hard Numbers: Sinn Féin wins, HK gets new pro-China boss, Nigeria grounds flights, NYC rats on a rampage
27: For the first time, Sinn Féin became the largest party in Northern Ireland's assembly after winning 27 seats in Thursday's election. The result matters because Sinn Féin openly supports reunification with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, and because UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson might use Northern Ireland to pick another fight with Brussels.
99: John Lee was "elected" Sunday as Hong Kong's next chief executive. The former top cop got 99% of the vote from a committee of some 1,500 politicians and tycoons almost entirely handpicked by China, which is expected to further tighten its grip on the territory and quash remnants of its pro-democracy movement with Lee in charge.
1.68: On Monday, Nigeria will become the world's first country to ground all domestic flights because refined jet fuel is too expensive. The airlines say they can no longer shoulder the soaring cost of fuel, which has almost tripled to $1.68 per liter this year.
7,400: Move over, Pizza Rat. New Yorkers called in some 7,400 rat sightings in April, the highest monthly rate in over a decade. The pandemic has pushed them out of the subways and onto the streets of the Big Apple, where the rodents continue to feast on their favorite scraps.A man walks past Sinn Fein election posters along the nationalist Falls Road in Belfast.
What We're Watching: Elections in Northern Ireland, South African president in trouble
Northern Ireland’s choice
On Thursday, voters across the UK head to the polls for local elections, but it’s the contest in Northern Ireland that might make history. Sinn Féin is expected to finish with the most seats in Northern Ireland’s assembly. Its victory would be more symbolic than immediately substantive, since power in the assembly must be shared between the two lead parties, and Sinn Féin has focused its campaign on today’s economic hardship, not on a century of Irish partition. But the symbolism matters. A Sinn Féin win would mark the first time in Northern Ireland’s 101-year history that the UK province is led by a party that supports reunification with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state. It would make Sinn Féin the most popular party on both sides of the Irish border. And it would prove deeply embarrassing for UK PM Boris Johnson, who is fighting for his scandal-plagued political life at the moment and considering another battle with the European Union over Northern Ireland’s place in the EU’s single market.