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U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hand with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as they meet to negotiate for an end to the war in Ukraine, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S., August 15, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Another Trump deadline for Putin passes, UAE warns Israel about West Bank, Chinese hack broader than first known
What is the “coalition of the willing” willing to do?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has blown past another deadline set by US President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine. After their Alaska meeting, Trump gave Moscow two weeks to stop fighting, but Russian drone strikes have nearly doubled since. Still, Putin said negotiations remain possible “if common sense prevails,” though he warned he is prepared to press on by force. In Paris today, European allies are debating how to turn vague promises of security guarantees into concrete commitments of troops, weapons, and funding. Many countries are still unwilling to commit to troops on the ground. Trump insists Europe must take the lead on the ground before Washington will provide a “backstop” to maintain a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
Are the Abraham Accords under threat?
The United Arab Emirates warned Israel yesterday that annexing the West Bank would be a “red line” and “would severely undermine the vision and spirit of [the Abraham] Accords,” after far-right Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the annexation of most of the territory earlier on Wednesday. The UAE is one of the founding signatories of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Arab states and Israel, and is by far the largest economy to have signed them. US President Donald Trump has tried to encourage other countries – most notably Saudi Arabia – to join the diplomatic agreement, but the UAE’s warning suggests there are greater downside risks right now.
Major Chinese hack even larger than first feared, say security officials
Chinese hackers – with the backing of their government – may have seized information from nearly every one of the 340 million Americans during a massive years-long cyberattack called Salt Typhoon. The finding comes after security officials have spent the last year examining the scope of the attack, discovering that it was far wider than initially understood. Salt Typhoon first gained headlines last year when it emerged that the hackers targeted US President Donald Trump’s phone. The vast scale of the breach is a sign of China’s growing offensive cybersecurity capabilities.Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer speak during a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of a summit for "Coalition of the Willing" at Elysee Palace in Paris, France March 27, 2025.
The UK, the EU and a potential landmark post-Brexit defense pact
With Russia’s Vladimir Putin pressing forward on one side and America’s Donald Trump potentially stepping back on the other, curious new things are happening in the European defense sector.
The EU and the United Kingdom are now working toward a defense and security pact to be unveiled at a summit of European leaders hosted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on May 19.
This will be the first such summit of EU and British leaders since “Brexit”. It comes at a time when the UK and France are leading an effort to form a “coalition of the willing” to safeguard any potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
The new deal would allow British arms-makers, many with longstanding ties to German and other European defense companies, to participate in joint arms procurement to bolster European security.
The pact would also create a €150bn program that allows participating governments to borrow against a common fund to invest in critical military hardware, such as air and missile defense systems.
It’s not a done deal just yet. France in particular wants concessions from Starmer’s government on the hot political topic of fisheries access. But given the stakes, the right of French fishermen to catch sand eels in UK waters seems unlikely to stymie for long the broader progress towards a UK-EU security deal.France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference following a summit for the "coalition of the willing" at the Elysee Palace in Paris on March 27, 2025.
Europe divided over Macron’s “reassurance force” for Ukraine
The reassurance force has its share of supporters, notably British PM Keir Starmer. But Italian PM Giorgia Meloni offered “no national participation,” while Czech PM Petr Fiala dubbed the discussion “premature” until ceasefire conditions become known.
Moscow’s response? A hard nyet. Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, claimed that the UK and France are “hatching plans for military intervention in Ukraine” under the guise of peacekeeping. She added, “Russia categorically opposes such a scenario, which threatens a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.”
So far, there has been no formal response from the Trump administration, although special envoy Steve Witkoff referred to the plan as “simplistic” and “posturing” in an interview with Tucker Carlson on March 21. We’re watching to see if there will be further reaction – and whether this will impact ceasefire talks.