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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, France's President Emmanuel Macron and Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer speak during a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of a summit for "Coalition of the Willing" at Elysee Palace in Paris, France March 27, 2025.
The UK, the EU and a potential landmark post-Brexit defense pact
With Russia’s Vladimir Putin pressing forward on one side and America’s Donald Trump potentially stepping back on the other, curious new things are happening in the European defense sector.
The EU and the United Kingdom are now working toward adefense and security pact to be unveiled at a summit of European leaders hosted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on May 19.
This will be the first such summit of EU and British leaders since “Brexit”. It comes at a time when the UK and France are leading an effort to form a “coalition of the willing” to safeguard any potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
The new deal would allow British arms-makers, many with longstanding ties to German and other European defense companies, to participate in joint arms procurement to bolster European security.
The pact would also create a €150bn program that allows participating governments to borrow against a common fund to invest in critical military hardware, such as air and missile defense systems.
It’s not a done deal just yet. France in particular wants concessions from Starmer’s government on the hot political topic of fisheries access. But given the stakes, the right of French fishermen to catch sand eels in UK waters seems unlikely to stymie for long the broader progress towards a UK-EU security deal.A member of German army Bundeswehr exercises during a presentation to German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius during his visit to the airborne brigade of German army Bundeswehr in Saarlouis, Germany, September 17, 2024
Could Europe replace the US military?
Earlier this week, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, made an astounding declaration: “The Americans … are indifferent to the fate of Europe,” he said. “Europeans must … ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own.”
To be clear, the US hasn’t stepped away from Europe’s security just yet. But Trump 3.0’s aggressive posture towards the EU – on trade, free speech, and Ukraine – has made the specter of abandonment feel real enough.
The EU would need to replace some 300,000 US troops, as well as hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces, according to one report. The yearly cost would be some $260 billion.
Such a rapid increase would need to be financed initially by borrowing. But that could clash with EU, and country-level, debt limits meant to avoid financial crises. In Germany, for example, Merz on Tuesday ruled out weakening the constitutionally mandated debt limits – but he is also reportedly working with the outgoing parliament to create a massive new defense fund.
In the UK, meanwhile, PM Keir Starmerannounced further cuts to the British foreign aid budget to boost defense spending to 3% of GDP by the middle of the next decade (from 2.3% today.)
What would “defense” mean? Holding Russia at bay in Ukraine would be a big focus. But beyond that, naming the threats that Western European countries face directly could be contentious. Keep an eye out for this Sunday’s emergency EU defense summit, which will touch on just that.
The bottom line: For decades, the US has underwritten Europe’s security. But Europe is now being forced to answer questions it never expected to ask.