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A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari
The Ukraine war remains the most important geopolitical conflict in the world, says bestselling author and historian Yuval Noah Harari.
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer filmed live at the 92nd Street Y in New York City, Harari says that if Russia wins in Ukraine, the global order as we’ve known it for decades is over. "The most fundamental rule was that you cannot just invade and conquer another country just because you're stronger. This is exactly what Putin is trying to do in Ukraine."
The conversation also touches on the potential ripple effects of Russia's actions, suggesting that a successful annexation could embolden other nations to follow suit, destabilizing global peace. Harari even entertains the notion that we might be in the early stages of a third World War, unrecognized in the current moment, much like the early years of World War II were not immediately identified as such. "If he gets away with it, we'll see more and more Putins all over the world” Harari says. "There is a scenario that we are already living in the midst of the third World War and we just don't know it."
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Ukraine on the path to joining NATO, says deputy Mircea Geoanǎ
After two years of fighting and brutal warfare in Ukraine, NATO deputy Mircea Geoanǎ says the stakes of the war could not be higher for the West. Ian Bremmer spoke with Geoanǎ on GZERO World at the Munich Security Conference and asked him to give a sober assessment of the war so far, as political battles and mounting crisis fatigue in the US and EU put military and financial assistance for Kyiv in jeopardy. Geoanǎ says the West can't afford to desert Ukraine in its time of need.
“Ukraine will become a member of NATO, it will become a member of the EU,” the NATO deputy warns, “If they don’t prevail, there is no NATO, there’s no EU.”
NATO and Ukraine are getting closer every day, Geoanǎ argues, they're becoming more interoperable with each other, and a level of trust has developed with Kyiv. Abandoning the fight now would be a broader sign of the West’s collective ability to deal with global security challenges coming from elsewhere in the world, like Iran and North Korea. This war is bigger than Ukraine, which is why it’s so important for allies to stay united.
Watch full episode here: Can Ukraine win the war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Can Ukraine win the war?
Are NATO allies as united in their support for Kyiv as they were when Russia began its invasion of Ukraine two years ago? That was the question at the top of everyone’s minds at the Munich Security Conference, where world leaders gathered to discuss the biggest challenges to global security. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Deputy Secretary General Mirceǎ Geoana on the sidelines of Munich to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine and what the conflict means for the future of the NATO alliance.
“Ukraine is more than Ukraine, and Ukraine is more than European security,” Geoanǎ explains, “Ukraine is an indicator of the willingness and the capacity of the West to be able to cope with challenges coming from China or anywhere else.”
Geoanǎ also called the recent death of Alexei Navalny a “wake-up call” for the West and challenged President Trump’s recent comments about allowing Russia to invade NATO countries that don’t meet the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. While he admits Europe could do better, he points out that NATO allies are well above the 2% target on aggregate due to heightened security concerns in former Soviet countries and the Baltics.
“In the end, this alliance, [which will celebrate] 75 years in the next few weeks, will be as indispensable to America and to all of us like it’s been since the inception,” Geoanǎ says.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
What's the plan for Ukraine after two years of war? Ian Bremmer explains
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, what's the plan for both sides as casualties rise, Europe's support wavers and US funding for Ukraine hangs in the balance?
It’s been two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which shows no signs of ending any time soon. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks at how Ukraine and Russia have fared so far and what comes next for Kyiv and Moscow. So far, the numbers tell a grim story. Both countries have lost around 70,000 troops each, with hundreds of thousands more injured, according to recent estimates. Meanwhile, Russia still occupies around a fifth of Ukrainian territory. So what’s the plan?
On the Ukrainian side, the strategy remains the same: survive. After a disappointing summer counteroffensive and recent shakeup of Ukrainian military leadership, Kyiv is hoping recent attacks inside Russia can put Moscow on its back foot. The Kremlin, for its part, is waiting out the clock, banking on war fatigue in Europe and political infighting in the US to stem the flow of military assistance to Ukraine. A prospect that seems all the more likely if Donald Trump wins the US election in November.
Ninety-two percent of Ukrainian citizens say that the only acceptable end to the war would be a complete Russian withdrawal from their country, including Crimea. As the conflict enters a third year, 44 million Ukrainians overwhelmingly want to defend the territory, but is that enough to win?
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television this weekend (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
Russia-Ukraine: Two Years of War
It's been two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and the war is still raging. GZERO looks back at the pivotal moments of the past 24 months.
The Latest:
Listen:
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Feb. 24, 2022: Russia launches “special military operation” in Ukraine
On Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launches a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, labeling it a "special military operation." The aim? The "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine, according to Putin, who warns of inevitable clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Any bloodshed, he says, would be on Ukraine’s hands.
- Ian Bremmer: This is a turning point in the global order
- Russia-Ukraine crisis: What you need to know
Feb. 28, 2022: The ruble nosedives
Days after Russian troops invade eastern Ukraine, the country's currency plummets, shedding up to 30% of its value against the US dollar. This drastic decline follows allied sanctions, specifically targeting Russia’s central bank and major lenders. Such a sharp depreciation of the ruble has occurred only twice before: during the 1998 Russian financial crisis and again in late 2014.
March 2022: Putin = Common denominator
Putin Past the Point of No Return | Putin's Europe Problem | GZERO World with Ian Bremmerhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer/putins-europe-problem
While NATO forces aren't directly engaged, the US and its allies support Ukraine through arms, financial aid, and stringent sanctions against Moscow. Vladimir Putin's approach, reminiscent of past-century warfare, falters in the modern era of global PR and social media dominance. The repercussions extend far beyond Ukraine, capturing the attention of countries like Finland, transitioning from neutrality to NATO hopeful. Former Finland PM Alexander Stubb, reflecting on Putin's stance and China's hesitance to fully support Russia, highlights the evolving geopolitical dynamics. On this award-winning episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to Stubb, who once helped broker Russia's 2008 cease-fire with Georgia and believes Putin has backed himself into a corner but won't back down on Ukraine.
- Putin only understands power and force, says Finland’s former PM
- Civilians gear up: “This is not a suicide mission” – the Wolverines of Ukraine
April 2022: Russia retreats from Kyiv, Bucha massacre uncovered
Is Putin's war in Ukraine genocide?https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/is-putin-s-war-in-ukraine-genocide
As Ukrainian forces retake Kyiv and Russian troops begin retreating to eastern and southern Ukraine, gruesome images surface from Bucha, a Kyiv suburb, revealing that civilians – women, children, and elderly – lay dead in the streets. Ukrainian officials and independent sources share horrific accounts of rape, torture, and execution by Russian soldiers, and hundreds of victims are found in mass graves. Russia denies responsibility and instead points fingers at Ukraine.
- Is Putin's war in Ukraine a genocide?
- The price of Russian defeat
- Zelensky wants justice over Russian war crimes
- Russian military on the ropes
June 2022: Russia withdraws from Snake Island
Russia retreats from Snake Island, with the Kremlin calling it a "gesture of goodwill" to disprove the hindrance of Ukrainian food exports, but Ukrainians credit their missile strikes. The blockade disrupted Ukraine's monthly grain exports of five million metric tons, spiking global food prices and sparking famine fears in Africa. Zmiinyi Island, 22 miles off Ukraine's coast, offers strategic advantages, but its capture hindered Kyiv's defense of the southwestern coast and Odesa port. While a Ukrainian victory, naval weakness hampers food export resumption, underscoring Kremlin's Donbas focus.
August 2022: Fighting around Zaporizhzhia power plant raises fears
Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant in Peril | US Energy Secretary Granholm | GZERO Worldhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-clips/us-en...
Artillery duels erupt at Europe’s largest nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia, southern Ukraine, now under Russian occupation. Both sides accuse the other of instigating the conflict. The IAEA raises concerns over the potential for a nuclear catastrophe, as shelling severely damages radiation sensors near a spent fuel storage unit. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemns the situation as “Russian nuclear terror.”
Sept. 11, 2022: Ukraine pushes back, reclaims over a thousand square miles
On the 200th day of the war, the Ukrainian military achieves its most significant gains against Russia since the invasion began. President Volodymyr Zelensky declares the liberation of over 1,000 kilometers of territory, pledging to "de-occupy" completely.
Sept. 21, 2022: Russia calls up reservists
Russia calls up reservistshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/what-we-re-watching-iran-protests-spread-putin-mobilizes-ny-sues-trumps-china-faces-slow-growth
Vladimir Putin dramatically ups the ante and orders the partial mobilization of up to 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian defiance persists, with Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, reaffirming their commitment to pressure Putin's government and military. Meanwhile, Russia grapples with internal unrest, evident in protests and a surge of draft-age men fleeing the country. While Putin stops short of full mobilization, ongoing setbacks in the "special military operation" raise concerns about future escalations.
- The script for conscripts: Inside Putin’s (partial) mobilization
- QuickTake with Ian Bremmer: Putin cornered
- António Guterres: Ukraine war united NATO but further divided the world
Sept. 26, 2022: Who blew up Nord Stream?
Who blew up Nord Stream? Ian Bremmer
The controversial Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany and Europe are sabotaged, leading to multiple investigations into whodunnit.
- Did someone blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?
- Another Baltic pipeline whodunnit
- Who blew up Nord Stream?
September 2022: Russia holds referenda in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine
Russian annexationshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/what-we-re-watching-russian-annexations-the-india-pakistan-us-tango
Putin’s sham referenda in four regions of Ukraine officially moves forward to annexations. Yet, with ongoing clashes, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson remain battlegrounds. Securing control amid Ukrainian resistance could provide Putin with a strategic land bridge from southeastern Ukraine to Crimea, annexed in 2014. While Russia holds Luhansk and Kherson, and portions of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, Ukrainian forces persist in gaining ground. The referenda offer Putin a pretext, framing Ukrainian/Western attacks as assaults on Russia. Amid a faltering war, Putin terms it an "anti-colonial movement." In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seeks accelerated NATO accession.
Oct. 8, 2022: Kerch Bridge blast
Russia launches a series of airstrikes targeting major Ukrainian cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and even Lviv, previously deemed a haven. The attacks, hitting civilian areas during rush hour, inflict considerable damage to infrastructure, causing power outages and driving civilians into bomb shelters. While the death toll remains unconfirmed, casualties are expected to be substantial. This military escalation follows Saturday's explosion on the Crimea-Russia Kerch bridge, which Putin attributes to Ukrainian "terrorists." The strikes were ordered before Putin's National Security Council meeting, suggesting retaliation planning. Though the Kremlin has yet to comment officially, Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov expresses satisfaction, advocating for reprisals against Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Putin lashes out after Crimea bridge blast
- Russian revenge vs. Ukrainian resolve
- Following Ukraine’s Crimea bridge attack, expect Putin to escalate "until he collapses"
January 2023: US and Germany offer tanks
Ukraine tanks uphttps://www.gzeromedia.com/ukraine-tanks-up
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces Germany's decision to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, following pressure from NATO countries led by Poland. Berlin initially resisted, concerned about antagonizing Russia and awaiting US action on supplying Abrams tanks. Two tank battalions, totaling roughly 80 Leopard 2 tanks, will be deployed to Ukraine, with training for Ukrainian soldiers commencing in Germany. However, US tank shipments may not arrive until spring, as the Ukrainian military lacks Abrams operation knowledge and maintenance supply lines and faces fuel consumption concerns.
- Ukraine tanks up
- Ukraine's killer dune buggies
- Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant at risk of disaster, says top nuclear watchdog
- Putin’s war crimes solidify West’s military support for Ukraine
- Russian unpredictability & Finland's border threat
February 2023: Biden visits Kyiv
Biden’s visit to Ukraine signals US commitment, but war gets tougher | Quick Take | GZERO Mediahttps://www.gzeromedia.com/quick-take/biden-visit-to-ukraine-signals-us-commitment-but-war-gets-tougher
President Biden makes a surprise trip to Kyiv, just before the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. It's significant as the first visit by an American president since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and intervention in Southeast Ukraine. This underscores continued US commitment symbolically, boosts Ukrainian morale, and reassures NATO of America's unwavering prioritization of Ukraine, despite substantial aid and a year of conflict. The trip holds immense importance for diplomatic relations, emphasizing the enduring support for Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions with Russia.
June 8, 2023: Ukraine launches counteroffensive
Ukraine ups the antehttps://www.gzeromedia.com/ukraine-ups-the-ante
The New York Times reports that Ukraine's nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is ramping up in the southeast, per two anonymous Pentagon officials. Thousands of previously held-back reserves are now deploying to the front lines. Both Ukrainian and Russian reports corroborate this escalation. Whether Ukraine gains strategic ground or not marks a pivotal juncture in the war.
June 24, 2023: Prigozhin stages mutiny
Russia’s aborted coup, explainedhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/russias-aborted-coup-explained
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin stages a failed mutiny against Vladimir Putin. Ian Bremmer predicts the move will be the beginning of the end of Prigozhin. According to Bremmer, Prigozhin, in the lead-up to his mutiny, had become increasingly erratic, indicative of his declining political influence. What's more, he directed fury at Russia’s Ministry of Defense, accusing them of sending thousands of soldiers to their deaths due to corruption, incompetence, and cowardice.
- Russia’s aborted coup, explained
- Former Russian intelligence officer: Prigozhin's threat to Putin is “ludicrous”
July 2023: Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Deal
Russia's exit from Black Sea grain deal will drive up food prices | Europe In: 60https://www.gzeromedia.com/in-60-seconds/europe/russias-exit-from-black-sea-grain-deal-will-drive-up-food-prices
Russia announces its exit from the Black Sea grain deal, a move GZERO's Europe In :60 host and former Sweden PM Carl Bildt predicts would have severe consequences on global food prices. Continuous attacks on grain terminals near the Ukrainian-Romanian border aggravate the situation. Meanwhile, the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive slows down due to extensive Russian fortifications and mines. The Ukrainian army, largely composed of mobilized individuals with limited training, faces significant challenges.
Aug. 23, 2023: Prigozhin dies in plane crash
Wagner's Prigozhin dieshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/wagners-prigozhin-presu...
Russian state media reports a private aircraft crash outside Moscow, killing all 10 aboard, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group warlord behind a failed mutiny against the Kremlin in June.
September 2023: Peace in Ukraine is world's priority, says UN chief António Guterres
November 2023: US govt avoids shutdown, cuts Ukraine funding
Shutdown averted, but deal contains no aid for Ukrainehttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/shutdown-averted-but-deal-contains-no-aid-for-ukraine
Ukraine's funding struggle continues as a divided US House finally reached an agreement to avoid a government shutdown but notably did not include military aid for either Ukraine or Israel. Democrats had tried to lump aid for Israel - which received bipartisan support - together with that of Ukraine, which faced resistance from Republicans. The decision is a significant blow to Ukraine, whose somewhat successful resistance against the Russian offensive relied heavily on US funding. What's more, their hopes of getting assistance from the EU face threats from Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—an ally of Vladimir Putin.
February 2024: Russia recaptures Avdiivka
Pro-Russia blogger commits suicide, Russia recaptures Avdiivkahttps://www.gzeromedia.com/news/hard-numbers/hard-numbers-pro-russia-blogger-commits-suicide-uk-nuclear-missile-test-fails-biden-slashes-student-debt-iran-gives-russia-missiles
In mid-February 2024, Russian forces in Ukraine scored their first major victory in months, taking the strategic town of Avdiivka. A pro-Russian blogger who reported that 16,000 Russian troops had died in the effort faced a huge backlash and committed suicide.
- What Ukraine needs after two years of war with Russia - GZERO Media ›
- What's the plan for Ukraine after two years of war? Ian Bremmer explains - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine is still standing two years after Russian invasion - GZERO Media ›
- Two years of war in Ukraine: Power players at the Munich Security Conference weigh in - GZERO Media ›
- Greece's PM on NATO, Navalny, and the wake-up call to Europe - GZERO Media ›
- A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari - GZERO Media ›
- Moscow terror attack: What happens next? - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: How crisis can help us fix broken systems: from Ukraine to COVID
Listen: To fix our broken international political system, we need a crisis. For instance, a pandemic, climate catastrophe, Big Tech having too much power, or a Russian invasion of Ukraine. But it must be a crisis that's so destructive it forces us to respond fast, and together — like World War II. That's the crisis that created the international system we have today, and kept the peace until now. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to Anne-Marie Slaughter, former US State Department official and now CEO of New America, and political scientist and Harvard professor Stephen Walt about the war and other crises.
Slaughter and Walt debate key issues such as the tough choices NATO faces on expanding to more countries but not Ukraine or other former Soviet republics, what we learned from the pandemic, and whether there are still reasons for hope in our current gloomy political environment. "If you're going to use a crisis effectively for change, you have to be able to have the right time horizon, the right group of countries, and a very specific set of goals," says Slaughter, who thinks we do have the ability to address many of the problems affecting the Global South: the most powerful countries are now all over the world. Many voices of people who need to be at the table — civic groups, CEOs, women, people of color — are not being heard.
This interview comes from the weekly show on global politics, GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, which is available to view on US public television stations. Check local listings to watch.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Russia escalates in Donbas in push to take eastern Ukraine
As Russia is launching a new phase of war, will eastern Ukraine fall? What is the West's last resort if the war further escalates? With US airlines dropping mask requirements for passengers, is this a bold move? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
As Russia is launching a new phase of war, will eastern Ukraine fall?
Well, first of all, they said they were going to launch the new phase like a few weeks ago. What gives? It's like weeks for the new phase but yeah, they're now really moving into military escalation across the Donbas. Remember, this is the territory that the Russians have declared, recognized as independent. It's about two-thirds more than the territory they had occupied from 2014 until just before the war started, February 24th. And yeah, the Russians clearly have learned some lessons from mistakes that were made in the last eight weeks of the war. They've got new leadership on the ground. They've sent some additional troops, but they also have poor morale. The troops have been depleted and the Ukrainians have an awful lot of military capability. I'll tell you, I think it's very unlikely that east Ukraine will fall by May 9th, which is when Putin wants to make his announcement of victory on Victory Day. I think eventually yes, it's more likely than not that eastern Ukraine will fall, but this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. And that's a very sad thing.
What is the West's last resort if the war further escalates?
Well, I mean the biggest thing that the West can do is Europe can cut off all of the remaining energy that they're getting from Russia, which is continuing to fund the war. And the problem is that that's going to happen anyway. I mean if the Russians use chemical weapons or, God forbid, or if the Russians decide that they're going to engage in just scorched earth across major Ukrainian cities like they have in Mariupol. Maybe it happens faster. If they don't, then it happens over another year, two years. But if you're Russia, does that really change the way you think about your relationship with the West or your behavior on the ground? It probably doesn't. So, I mean, short of the West actually engaging in the war directly, a no-fly zone or troops on the ground, there's really very little additional that they can do. And that's part of the reason why it's unlikely that the Russians are going to change their behavior in any way here. It's hard to come up with a deterrent effect.
With US airlines dropping mask requirements for passengers, is this a bold move?
No, it's not a bold move, it's a stupid move in the sense that it was made arbitrarily by a Trump-appointed justice on the ground in Florida. It's a horrible way to actually decide that you're suddenly getting rid of a mandate. I personally think that the implementation of the mandates has been pretty arbitrary. It's been badly enforced. It's not N95 or KN95 masks, people wearing bandanas for Christ's sake. And they're on an hour-long shuttle to Washington DC and they're having drinks while they're barely wearing masks at all. So, it doesn't feel very effective to me. And in that regard with all the vaccines we have, this is not something that I'm worked up about. I'm kind of glad they're gone. I understand that given how nuts everyone has been over the pandemic the last two years and how politicized it's gotten that people are angry. But no, I don't think it's a bold move. I think it's just one more thing that shows that the United States does not have its political shit in order if you don't mind, because we are just so politically divided and dysfunctional. It's yet one more example of that.
- COVID hypocrisy & misinformation - GZERO Media ›
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Going after war criminals
The accusations of Russian war crimes in Ukraine have shocked the world. The Kremlin, of course, denies targeting civilians and says it’s the Ukrainians who are violating the rules of war. So what happens when one side does commit atrocities during a conflict?
It might be prosecuted for war crimes, like the Nazis who were tried in Nuremberg after World War II, just a few years before the latest version of the Geneva Convention was ratified in 1949, establishing the core of international humanitarian law.
More recently, the UN has set up special courts to prosecute war crimes like those in the former Yugoslavia (this week is the 30th anniversary of the start of the war in Bosnia), and 20 years ago the UN-backed International Criminal Court was established.
Such bodies were able to try the likes of Slobodan Milošević, the former president of Yugoslavia, and convict Charle Taylor, the Liberian warlord-turned-president.
But others evaded justice. Not everyone is on board with international tribunals for war crimes.
The US, China, and Russia have not joined the ICC — in the American case, Bill Clinton tried but it was never ratified by Congress.
Lack of jurisdiction will make it hard — but not impossible — to go after Russians accused of war crimes in Ukraine.