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EU leaders visit Kyiv
Is Europe ready for self-defense?
For decades, French governments have talked up the value of “Collective European Defense,” an alliance fully invested in Europe’s security outside of NATO. For decades, the point was academic, because Germany and Britain valued the transatlantic relationship too highly to take steps that might discourage US commitment.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it again exposed Europe’s deep dependence on Washington’s commitment to its security. When Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025, the risks of outsourcing Europe’s defense became unavoidably obvious. France and Germany (along with Poland) have now announced new European defense plans.
But there are two stories making headlines this week that reveal just how complex, time-consuming, and politically fraught these plans will be.
First, the European Commission has proposed that EU members be allowed to borrow against the EU budget to purchase $167 billion worth of weapons to help them quickly counter potential Russian threats.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen then told the European Parliament this week that, to invest in genuine European strategic autonomy, these funds should only be spenton weapons made in EU member states or allied countries like the UK, Norway, and Switzerland. Why buy American when you want to wean yourself off Washington? To be adopted, this plan must win backing from at least 55% of EU members and 65% of the EU’s total population.
Second, France’s Emmanuel Macron, president of the only EU member state with nuclear weapons, said this week that he’s willing to discuss potential plans tostation some of those weapons inside the borders of other EU members.
True to French tradition, Paris would impose three conditions: France would not pay the cost of moving the weapons; redeployments must not be so large as to compromise France’s own nuclear deterrent; and any decision to use these weapons could only be made by the French president.
Both developments illustrate the scale of the political and security decisions that are being undertaken. It’s a good bet we’ll still be writing about the EU debating these questions for years to come.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk walk to the podium at the Presidential Palace in Kyiv, Ukraine, for a press conference after their meeting on May 10, 2025.
What We’re Watching: EU vs Ukraine, South Korea-US side deals
EU vs Ukraine?
Ukraine now finds itself on shakier ground with EU members. At a time when its wartime economy badly needs a boost, the bloc will impose higher tariffs on Ukraine’s exports, particularly farm products, on June 6 in response to pressure from member-state farmers. It’s a politically sensitive moment, particularly in Poland, which holds first-round elections on Sunday.
It’s a reminder that, while Russia’s invasion and uncertainty over Donald Trump’s NATO intentions have focused European minds on security, they’ve also stoked anxiety within the EU about which countries will shoulder more of the burden of defending Ukraine and European borders.
Kyiv had another setback this week: Russian President Vladimir Putinwon’t attend peace talks with the Ukrainians in Istanbul Thursday, despite calls to do so from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
South Korea seeks US side deal as Asia-Pacific trade leaders meet
Trade envoys from the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group – which includes the US, China, and Russia – are gathering in South Korea today and tomorrow amid a turbulent period in international trade.
Home-court advantage. With talks on home turf, South Korea has taken the opportunity to set up a bilateral meeting with the US. But Korea’s presidential election on June 3 – which Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung is expected to win – could affect the chances of a deal.
“July 8 is the deadline that current negotiators have set,” says Eurasia Group regional expert Jeremy Chan. “The question is whether Lee will agree with this time frame.”Climate change activists hang a sign on Tower Bridge during a demonstration against the climate crisis, in central London, Britain, April 8, 2022.
Climate change, Trump tariffs, India rice rules
2.2: As the world gets hotter from climate change, we are using more energy to cool ourselves down, which is making climate change worse. According to the IEA, record-high temps in 2024 were responsible for half of the rise in emissions from energy – as severe heat waves caused air conditioning usage to surge, fueling electricity demand, and in turn raising emissions. This contributed to a 2.2% increase in global energy demand, up from 1.8% the year before. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption grew by 0.8% over the past year.
25: Donald Trump on Monday announced a 25% tariff on all imports from countries that buy Venezuelan oil or gas, starting April 2, alongside new tariffs on Venezuela itself. Venezuela will face a “secondary” tariff because it is the home to the Tren de Aragua gang, which Trump said is sending members to the US.
40: India has lifted its restrictions on rice exports, a move that should help curb food price inflation and increase agricultural workers’ salaries amid an economic slowdown in the country. Initially imposed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine to prevent domestic shortages, the curbs drove up prices worldwide. As the largest rice exporter – accounting for over 40% of global rice exports – India’s decision should benefit poorer nations, especially in Africa, where rising food costs have fueled unrest. However, it will come at a cost for other rice-producing countries like Thailand and Pakistan, which worry that India will flood the market and prices will plummet.
93: US egg imports from Brazil surged 93% in February as a part of the Trump administration’s $1 billion plan to lower egg prices, which includes upping imports, helping farmers prevent the spread of the virus, and researching vaccine options. The eggs will end up in processed foods, freeing up more fresh eggs for grocery shelves. The US Food and Drug Administration is also reviewing a petition from the National Chicken Council to allow for the sale of eggs laid by chickens raised for meat – something it has previously forbidden because of salmonella risks.
200,000: Speaking of eggs, the Trump administration is seeking corporate sponsors for the White House Easter Egg Roll, a departure from tradition. Sponsorship packages range from $75,000 to $200,000, offering perks like logo placement, media engagement, and exclusive tickets. But there will still be a number of free tickets available.
Iranian and Russian flags are seen in this illustration.
How US adversaries are messing with the election
China, Iran, and Russia are attempting to influence Americans ahead of the US elections in November, according to intelligence officials, and they’re using artificial intelligence to accomplish their goals.
Officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the FBI briefed reporters on their findings on Monday, and ODNI released a one-page report to the public. Russia has been the most active of the three countries, using AI tools to boost former President Donald Trump and denigrate Vice President Kamala Harris, ODNI said. The Washington Post reported that Russia has doctored Harris’ speeches and used AI to “create false text, photos, video, and audio.”
Iran has used AI to create fake social media posts and news articles, focusing on polarizing issues such as the Israel-Gaza war. China hasn’t dipped into the election itself, but Beijing has used AI to “sow divisions on issues such as drug use, immigration, and abortion,” according to the ODNI report.
The findings are consistent with a recent Microsoft report about Iran’s attempts to meddle in the election, which also mentioned attempts by China and Russia to do the same. The ODNI said that the intelligence community is going to continue monitoring foreign actors’ attempts to influence the US election — especially those using AI to evoke public outrage, sow chaos, or affect the outcome of the vote.
Hacked displayed on a mobile with binary code with in the background Anonymous mask. On 9 August 2023 in Brussels, Belgium.
Old MacDonald had a Russian bot farm
On July 9, the US Department of Justice announced it disrupted a Russian bot farm that was actively using generative AI to spread disinformation worldwide. The department seized two domain names and probed 1,000 social media accounts on X (formerly known as Twitter) in collaboration with the FBI as well as Canadian and Dutch authorities. X voluntarily suspended the accounts, the government said.
The Kremlin-approved effort, which has been active since at least 2022, was spearheaded by an unnamed editor at RT, the Russia state-run media outlet, who created fake social media personas and posted pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine sentiments on X. It’s unclear which AI tools were used to generate the social media posts.
“Today’s actions represent a first in disrupting a Russian-sponsored Generative AI-enhanced social media bot farm,” FBI Director Christopher Wray wrote in a statement. Wray said that Russia intended to use this bot farm to undermine allies of Ukraine and “influence geopolitical narratives favorable to the Russian government.”
Russia has long tried to sow chaos online in the United States, but the Justice Department’s latest action signals that it’s ready to intercept inorganic social media activity — especially when it’s supercharged with AI.
A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari
The Ukraine war remains the most important geopolitical conflict in the world, says bestselling author and historian Yuval Noah Harari.
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer filmed live at the 92nd Street Y in New York City, Harari says that if Russia wins in Ukraine, the global order as we’ve known it for decades is over. "The most fundamental rule was that you cannot just invade and conquer another country just because you're stronger. This is exactly what Putin is trying to do in Ukraine."
The conversation also touches on the potential ripple effects of Russia's actions, suggesting that a successful annexation could embolden other nations to follow suit, destabilizing global peace. Harari even entertains the notion that we might be in the early stages of a third World War, unrecognized in the current moment, much like the early years of World War II were not immediately identified as such. "If he gets away with it, we'll see more and more Putins all over the world” Harari says. "There is a scenario that we are already living in the midst of the third World War and we just don't know it."
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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Ukraine on the path to joining NATO, says deputy Mircea Geoanǎ
After two years of fighting and brutal warfare in Ukraine, NATO deputy Mircea Geoanǎ says the stakes of the war could not be higher for the West. Ian Bremmer spoke with Geoanǎ on GZERO World at the Munich Security Conference and asked him to give a sober assessment of the war so far, as political battles and mounting crisis fatigue in the US and EU put military and financial assistance for Kyiv in jeopardy. Geoanǎ says the West can't afford to desert Ukraine in its time of need.
“Ukraine will become a member of NATO, it will become a member of the EU,” the NATO deputy warns, “If they don’t prevail, there is no NATO, there’s no EU.”
NATO and Ukraine are getting closer every day, Geoanǎ argues, they're becoming more interoperable with each other, and a level of trust has developed with Kyiv. Abandoning the fight now would be a broader sign of the West’s collective ability to deal with global security challenges coming from elsewhere in the world, like Iran and North Korea. This war is bigger than Ukraine, which is why it’s so important for allies to stay united.
Watch full episode here: Can Ukraine win the war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Can Ukraine win the war?
Are NATO allies as united in their support for Kyiv as they were when Russia began its invasion of Ukraine two years ago? That was the question at the top of everyone’s minds at the Munich Security Conference, where world leaders gathered to discuss the biggest challenges to global security. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Deputy Secretary General Mirceǎ Geoana on the sidelines of Munich to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine and what the conflict means for the future of the NATO alliance.
“Ukraine is more than Ukraine, and Ukraine is more than European security,” Geoanǎ explains, “Ukraine is an indicator of the willingness and the capacity of the West to be able to cope with challenges coming from China or anywhere else.”
Geoanǎ also called the recent death of Alexei Navalny a “wake-up call” for the West and challenged President Trump’s recent comments about allowing Russia to invade NATO countries that don’t meet the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. While he admits Europe could do better, he points out that NATO allies are well above the 2% target on aggregate due to heightened security concerns in former Soviet countries and the Baltics.
“In the end, this alliance, [which will celebrate] 75 years in the next few weeks, will be as indispensable to America and to all of us like it’s been since the inception,” Geoanǎ says.