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What the France and UK elections mean for the West
Major Western democracies like France, the UK, Canada, and the US are on the verge of sweeping political change, but how will upcoming elections impact our collective ability to deal with the world’s biggest challenges? How will Western allies approach issues like climate change, the AI revolution, and cyber defense in an increasingly fractured world? Mark Carney, former Governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World for a hard look at three of America’s closest allies: France, Britain, and Canada.
“We're operating in a world where security is paramount. You need resilience,” Carney tells Bremmer, “You need to look to those countries where you have common values and you need to reinforce them.”
Carney and Bremmer also delve into the strategic importance of the US-Canada relationship and how our neighbor to the north can be a reliable, strategic partner in many critical areas, including national security and climate transition. He warns Canadians and Americans shouldn’t “hit the snooze button” when it comes to strengthening US-Canada ties and stresses that Canada can be a critical partner in providing lean energy, crucial minerals, and AI expertise. As for Carney’s rumored political future as a potential Liberal Party leader? Well, you’ll just have to watch the interview to find out.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Ian Explains: How political chaos in the UK, France, & Canada impacts the US
Big political changes are coming in Western democracies, is the US ready to deal with the fallout? Voters in the United Kingdom and France will head to the polls in the coming weeks after UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron called snap national elections. Both political gambles could have a huge impact on everything from the West’s collective ability to deal with climate change to the AI revolution and countering China’s growing influence.
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the tumultuous landscapes of French and British politics right now, with an eye on upcoming elections in Canada and the United States.
In Britain, Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is almost guaranteed to lose control of the government. In France, the far-right National Rally Party is highly favored to win the most seats in the National Assembly. A similar story is playing out in Canada, setting the stage for a potentially brutal electoral defeat next year.
So why should Americans care about all this political chaos so far from home? Watch Ian Explains for more on what’s at stake with so many big elections on the horizon.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- G7 meeting: Ukraine and Meloni take center stage ›
- Macron-Meloni spat spotlights Europe’s left-right divide ›
- Ian Explains: Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election? ›
- UK Prime Minister Sunak's push for early election will hardly boost his chances ›
- Macron's snap election gamble will have repercussions for France and EU ›
A carcass lies on a grassland in Oendor-Bayan county in central Mongolia, 03/29/2000
Mongolians are reeling as their herds starve
Mongolia’s government is scrambling as catastrophic weather is killing animals so quickly that a quarter of the national herd may starve. Thousands of families face destitution after losing nearly all their livestock, which drives 80% of the country’s agricultural output and 11% of GDP.
What’s the problem? A nasty weather phenomenon known as dzud or “disaster,” a combination of dry summers and harsh winter storms that create layers of ice on the ground. Arid conditions leave animals underfed going into winter, and then they can’t crack through the rock-hard ice to forage. The resulting images are heartbreaking: lifeless, emaciated sheep, yaks, camels, and horses stacked high on pickup trucks for disposal.
Dzuds are nothing new, but scientists say climate change has made them more frequent. Six of the last 10 years have seen the dzud phenomenon in Mongolia, and this winter saw the heaviest snowfall since 1975. The government predicts that nearly 15 million animals may die in a country with just 3.3 million people.
What can be done? International aid has been grossly inadequate, with even a modest $5.5 million appeal from the Red Cross in March going 80% unfulfilled. The ancient lifestyles of the steppe may need to change permanently, as overreliance on herding has accelerated desertification, which worsens the dzud. Ulaanbaatar aims to expand the rich minerals sector as a more stable and sustainable economic pillar.Graphic Truth: Carbon in context
The US and Canada are both racing against the clock to lower their greenhouse gas emissions. As the effects of climate change become more apparent and deadly, countries are grappling with how to curb their emissions without curbing economic growth.
Canada, a resource-rich nation, is at a crossroads. Along with transportation and industry, the oil and gas sector dominates the country's emissions profile. Still, Canada has embarked on an ambitious journey to redefine its environmental legacy with one of the boldest climate commitments: pledging to reduce emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030. Policies such as carbon pricing, identified as the top driver of emissions reductions, will prevent 226 megatonnes of carbon pollution from being released by 2030.
Meanwhile, the US energy sector, primarily powered by fossil fuels, is the largest source of emissions, contributing significantly to the nation's carbon footprint. Transportation, industry, and agriculture follow closely behind. But the US has made strides in addressing its emissions through a combination of federal mandates, state-level initiatives, and private-sector innovation. The Clean Power Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act, for example, are meant to incentivize the private sector to lead the way in renewable energy innovation and adoption.
Places where oil and gas are produced, however, may experience the most economic upheaval from the clean energy transition, while local communities near fossil fuel industries are more likely to experience environmental degradation and health impacts.Smooth sailing for LNG amid Biden’s pause, Trudeau’s hesitation, and Johnson’s political gamble?
If you thought America’s liquefied natural gas policy had nothing to do with Russia’s war in Ukraine, think again. LNG is all over the news right now, thanks to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) cooking up a plan to link the issues.
Meanwhile, north of the border, Canada is having its own LNG squabbles as the future of the multibillion-dollar industry is being debated. Tensions between the federal government, which is increasingly weary of fossil fuel mega-projects, and provincial governments keen on resource revenue, are shaping the debate.
And so are considerations about what’s happening down south. In January, the Biden administration suspended pending approvals of LNG exports to countries with which it doesn’t have a free trade agreement. It’s waiting on the Department of Energy to sort out what these exports mean in terms of costs to US consumers and climate impact. The pause came in no small part thanks to the efforts of climate change activists.
Observers suspect Trudeau can’t get too far from Biden on the issue, and cross-border climate activists used Biden’s more aggressive climate policies to try to box in Trudeau. In January, Biden’s LNG pause put Canada’s LNG export policy in the spotlight, pressuring the country to enact its own moratorium (which it hasn’t done) – especially if it hopes to meet its 2030 climate goals. Also, the LNG market is only so big and may be headed for a glut, so US projects or exports – or a lack thereof – shape Canadian calculations.
When the US suspended new LNG approvals in January, President Joe Biden was quick to point out that the pause wouldn’t affect existing exports to US allies in the “near term.” But in the long-term? A lot depends on the global market, geopolitical considerations, and domestic politics, including climate activist pressure on Biden – who faces a reelection battle in November.
Biden was nonetheless keen in January to make everyone aware the US remains the top LNG exporter and that the energy source wasn’t going to stop flowing overnight. In fact, the administration expects export capacity to more thandouble by 2028, and last year the country’s LNG project approvals were record-setting.
The trade authorization review is important because it calls into question how viable LNG projects and exports will be long term in a world in which climate policies are moving away from fossil fuels, which are facing increasing competition from renewables. But it may also be up for negotiation.
Biden wants desperately to get an aid bill through Congress to fund Ukraine’s defense efforts against Russia. The Senate has passed a bill, but it’s stalled in the House, where Johnson has held it up.
Facing pressure from his own party, who oppose the Ukraine aid package, Johnson – who is also fighting to retain his gavel – has dreamed up a trade that involves putting the aid bill to a vote and backing it in exchange for Biden reopening the LNG taps. Trouble is, that may not be enough for GOP hardliners, or at least not enough of them to get the thing passed, which would compromise not only the Ukraine aid deal but Johnson’s speakership and political career.
The plan wasn’t initially warmly embraced, particularly among the right-wing GOPers more focused on border policy than LNG. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats weren’t super enthusiastic about it either, and climate change activists and politicians are pressuring Biden to reject the deal. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that White House sources said the administration was open to the deal, pending a look at the full plan, but a White House spokesperson said the report was untrue and that President Joe Biden stands behind the pause. All of this back-and-forth and crossed wires suggests Johnson’s deal might be more of an opening bid than a final one.
Noah Daponte-Smith, a US analyst at Eurasia Group, says this is merely “the negotiating stage,” noting that whether the Ukraine package gets through Congress is another matter. Johnson is trapped between his own party and Democrats, both of whom he needs if the Ukraine bill has any chance of passing.
The Democrats want a clean bill – with no extra measures – which means they aren’t interested in LNG additions. Even Johnson isn’t “enormously committed” to LNG, according to Daponte-Smith, but the speaker is running out of options.
“I think he wants to hold on to the gavel and this is something convenient he can put forward to the Republican caucus,” he says.
The border deal is a non-starter for the Ukraine package, Daponte-Smithe says, given that former President Donald Trump has declared it dead.
And it’s not just the US squabbling over LNG.
Last week, Canadian Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkison said the Liberal government wasn’t interested in funding future LNG projects. Beyond what’s already in the works, no more LNG projects will open in Canada unless the private sector is willing to go it alone. As of December, there were eight LNG projects in development worth over CA$100 billion, which includes the LNG Canada project, which Ottawa sank CA$275 million of public money into back in 2019, calling the project an investment “up to $40 billion” that “will lead to 10,000 middle-class jobs.” How times have changed.
Ottawa is turning its back despite Greece recently expressing interest in buying LNG from Canada – as have Japan and Germany. A few years ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wasn’t convinced of the upsides to shipping LNG to Europe, and Wilkinson’s latest comments suggest the PM hasn’t changed his mind. Of course, just because there’s demand for Canadian LNG today doesn’t mean there will be tomorrow, and the IEA expects slower demand growth in the years to come.
LNG opponents suggest the future for the energy source is dim and are calling for Canada not to see any US slowdown on LNG as an opportunity to fill the gap. Since nuclear starts and restarts are on the rise in Asia, and renewables projects are soaring globally, the world faces a potential oversupply of gas.
Neither the US nor Canada are going to fully halt export and development anytime soon. But the fact that the Biden administration and Trudeau government are even the slightest bit weary of LNG projects is a major development in energy and climate policy.
Norway's PM Jonas Støre says his country can power Europe
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre is optimistic about his country’s progress in the global energy transition, particularly regarding the pivot from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader adoption of renewable energy sources. And given Norway’s increased importance in supplying Europe with energy, the transition could not come a moment too soon. “I think the energy transition is happening... For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels,” Støre tells Ian in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World on the sidelines of the Munich Security conference. Støre extolls the significant strides being made despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges.
Støre points out the collaborative spirit of the international community, which he witnessed at COP 28. The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of market incentives, technological innovation, and political will in driving these changes. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition." Støre and Ian also touch on the need for a loss and damages fund to support the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring the ongoing efforts to provide financial mechanisms for environmental preservation and sustainable development.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Europe's energy security hinges on Norway and its transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. That has big geopolitical implications for Ukraine and NATO.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer delves into Europe's urgent quest for energy independence and the broader geopolitical shifts that could redefine the continent's future. With the specter of reduced US support for Ukraine after November’s election, Europe's resilience, particularly in energy security and military capabilities, takes center stage. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre joins Ian to discuss Norway's critical role in this transition, emphasizing the need for a swift move from oil and gas to renewables, a monumental task that Europe and Norway are determined to undertake in a remarkably short timeframe. “Norway will transition out of oil and gas. When we pass 2030, there will be declining production, and then we want to see renewables transition upwards,” Prime Minister Jonas Støre tells Ian.
Their conversation delves into the ramifications of the US election outcome on NATO and Ukraine, underscoring Europe's precarious position should American support wane. The discussion reveals the continent's vulnerability to fuel crises and the imperative for a robust energy strategy that lessens dependency on external forces, notably by severing ties with Russian fossil fuels in response to the invasion of Ukraine. “Europe's ability to assist Kyiv on the battlefield will hinge not just on military capabilities but also Europe's own energy security,” Ian explains.
This is a moment of transformation for Europe as it navigates the complexities of energy transition and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the interconnectedness of sustainability, security, and solidarity in facing the challenges of the 21st century.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Northern exposure ›
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- The Graphic Truth: Natural gas prices make EU power costs soar ›
- Norway's school phone ban aims to reclaim "stolen focus", says PM Jonas Støre ›
- With electric bills soaring, should the EU cap natural gas prices? ›
- The Graphic Truth: EU natural gas prices plunge ›
- World Bank announces plan to bring power to 300 million in Africa - GZERO Media ›
FILE PHOTO: Satellite image shows wildfires in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, September 24, 2023.
Alberta sounds alarm on 2024 wildfire season
It’s already begun … The Alberta government on Tuesday declared an early start to the 2024 wildfire season as firefighters there prepare for a hot, dry year ahead. Across Canada, authorities are bracing for a difficult year of fires after a record-setting year in 2023, which sent smoke plumes to population centers across the continent.
A warming climate is making forests drier and more susceptible to big, dangerous fires. More than 100 “zombie fires” (dormant in winter) are still smoldering in Western Canada, where they pose a threat when the weather warms up again.
“It's not something I've seen in any of the data sets,” Wilfrid Laurier University biology professor Jennifer Baltzer told CBC. “What we don't know is how many of these will actually translate to reignition in the spring.”
The continental United States was largely spared last year, and so far the projections look good for 2024 but worrying for the long term.