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A migrant carries his child after crossing the Darien Gap and arriving at the migrant reception center, in the village of Lajas Blancas, Darien Province, Panama, on September 26, 2024.
The migration issue will only get worse
On Tuesday, a coalition government in the Netherlands collapsed. The trigger? Geert Wilders, leader of the anti-immigration Party of Freedom (PVV) and a coalition partner, demanded new restrictions on the government’s grant of asylum to migrants. When these weren’t met, he pulled his party from the governing coalition.
Elsewhere in Europe, anti-immigration frustrations have fueled the rising political fortunes of nativist parties and politicians in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and several other countries. In the United States, Donald Trump was again elected president in 2024 after centering his campaign not just on curbing illegal immigration across the southern border from Mexico, but also on deporting millions of undocumented immigrants.
This political trend isn’t limited to wealthy Western countries. The entry of a million Rohingya Muslims fleeing a bloody state crackdown in Myanmar has roiled the politics of Bangladesh. Refugees are moving across African borders in large numbers, fueling violence in many countries.
Globally, the number of people on the move is on the rise. In 2024, the UN reported 304 million international migrants, nearly double the number in 1990.
There are three main drivers of all these border crossings. The first is violence. Wars force civilians to flee, but less organized violence – like criminal gang activity in Central America – also pushes people to seek new lives abroad.
The second driver is climate change. Changing weather patterns disrupt farming, fishing, and herding, and can generate famine. Rising sea levels force people from over-crowded, low-lying areas.
But the principal cause is that a clear majority of the world’s migrants are simply looking for better economic opportunities for themselves and their families. This is especially true for those in developing countries. Counterintuitively, it isn’t poverty but their rising incomes that give them new opportunities to move toward richer countries.
Given these sources of migration, we should expect bigger waves ahead. The current lack of leadership in the international system, a problem that Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer calls the “G-zero world order,” will make armed conflict and an expansion of the world’s ungoverned spaces within countries, both more likely and more violent.
The Institute for the Study of Economics and Peace, a think tank, warns that more than one billion people live in 31 countries where “the country’s resilience is unlikely to sufficiently withstand the impact of ecological events” by 2050, contributing to “mass population displacement,” and that as many as 3.5 billion people could suffer from food insecurity by that date.
What’s more, as living standards and populations continue to grow in developing countries, more people will have the opportunity to move abroad.
As people increasingly go on the road, the politics in wealthy countries will also become uglier. Politicians on one side will insist that all new border restrictions are hateful and cruel, while those on the other will warn that surges of new arrivals will spread crime and disease.
Even when the debate is more nuanced, political leaders seem more interested in scoring points – and raising cash – at the other side’s expense than in finding common ground and enacting sensible immigration policies.
This deadlock over how to accommodate hundreds of millions of migrants in coming years will ensure this problem will become a much larger-scale international emergency than it is today. The situation in the Netherlands is the tip of the iceberg.
And, speaking as the husband of someone who migrated to America as a six-year-old girl, the scale of human tragedy becomes almost unthinkable.
Traders work as screens broadcast a news conference by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, USA, on May 7, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, US Navy jets skid into the sea, The one-percent impact on the climate, Feathery “mass cannibalism” in South Africa
4.5: The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its key interest rate unchanged for the third time in a row, keeping it at 4.25%-4.5%, where it’s been since December. President Donald Trump has publicly pressured Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates. “The economy itself is still in solid shape,” Powell told reporters Wednesday, but he said a “great deal of uncertainty” remains about the impact of Trump’s global tariffs and wider trade wars.
2: Speaking of uncertainty, why are US warplanes falling into the sea? According to reports, two F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets have slid off the deck of the USS Harry S. Truman carrier into the Red Sea over the past week alone. The first plunged into the water when the warship made a hard turn to evade fire from Houthi rebels. The second may have experienced a landing problem. Each jet costs a cool $60 million – cue Commander Stinger, “you don’t own that plane, the taxpayers do!”
10: The richest 10% of the global population are responsible for two-thirds of the global temperature rise since 1990, according to new research published by Nature Climate Change. The study also claims that compared to the average person, the world’s richest 1% contributed 26 times more to extreme heat globally and 17 times as much to droughts in the Amazon. Private jets are not, as it happens, great for the environment.
350,000: Animal welfare officers in South Africa euthanized more than 350,000 chickens after a state-owned poultry company ran out of funds to feed them. Officials couldn't estimate how many other chickens had died before this intervention due to “mass cannibalism” at the farm (yes, chickens eating each other). Still, on the plus side, the NSCPA’s action saved more than 500,000 chickens who may now be… eaten by people anyway.Climate change activists hang a sign on Tower Bridge during a demonstration against the climate crisis, in central London, Britain, April 8, 2022.
Climate change, Trump tariffs, India rice rules
2.2: As the world gets hotter from climate change, we are using more energy to cool ourselves down, which is making climate change worse. According to the IEA, record-high temps in 2024 were responsible for half of the rise in emissions from energy – as severe heat waves caused air conditioning usage to surge, fueling electricity demand, and in turn raising emissions. This contributed to a 2.2% increase in global energy demand, up from 1.8% the year before. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption grew by 0.8% over the past year.
25: Donald Trump on Monday announced a 25% tariff on all imports from countries that buy Venezuelan oil or gas, starting April 2, alongside new tariffs on Venezuela itself. Venezuela will face a “secondary” tariff because it is the home to the Tren de Aragua gang, which Trump said is sending members to the US.
40: India has lifted its restrictions on rice exports, a move that should help curb food price inflation and increase agricultural workers’ salaries amid an economic slowdown in the country. Initially imposed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine to prevent domestic shortages, the curbs drove up prices worldwide. As the largest rice exporter – accounting for over 40% of global rice exports – India’s decision should benefit poorer nations, especially in Africa, where rising food costs have fueled unrest. However, it will come at a cost for other rice-producing countries like Thailand and Pakistan, which worry that India will flood the market and prices will plummet.
93: US egg imports from Brazil surged 93% in February as a part of the Trump administration’s $1 billion plan to lower egg prices, which includes upping imports, helping farmers prevent the spread of the virus, and researching vaccine options. The eggs will end up in processed foods, freeing up more fresh eggs for grocery shelves. The US Food and Drug Administration is also reviewing a petition from the National Chicken Council to allow for the sale of eggs laid by chickens raised for meat – something it has previously forbidden because of salmonella risks.
200,000: Speaking of eggs, the Trump administration is seeking corporate sponsors for the White House Easter Egg Roll, a departure from tradition. Sponsorship packages range from $75,000 to $200,000, offering perks like logo placement, media engagement, and exclusive tickets. But there will still be a number of free tickets available.
How does Europe balance AI and energy transition?
“I can tell you Europe is absolutely committed to tackling climate change, to developing this green economy, and to making the green transition a European success,” said Nadia Calviño, President of the European Investment Bank.
The rollout of artificial intelligence has raised big questions about how it will impact Europe’s transition to a more sustainable economy. During a Global Stage livestream at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Calviño stressed the continent’s role in addressing risks generated by AI. She said, “I think it will be key when we're talking about these technologies that have such a huge demand for energy supply.” Alongside countries being energy-conscious, Calviño stresses that building strong trust between businesses and citizens will help the new technologies “unleash their full potential.”
This conversation, moderated by Becky Anderson, was part of the Global Stage series at the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
Click to watch the full discussion for our panel's insights on AI's future and how it is expected to transform our economy and society by 2030.
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Protesters gather at the venue of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, dubbed COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov. 16, 2024, calling for developed countries to take responsibility for the greenhouse gasses they have emitted.
Developing nations decry climate deal at COP29
Aftermarathon sessions and deep divisions, COP29 concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, with a commitment of $300 billion in annual assistance by 2035 to help poorer nations cope with climate change. That’s up from today’s pledges of $100 billion a year. Twenty-three contributors will kick in the funds, including the UK, US, Japan, and countries in the EU. Recipients include countries in Africa and South America, as well as a host of small island states.
While some delegates applauded the deal, many developing nations branded it a “betrayal.” Indian delegate Chandni Raina called it “an optical illusion.” “This will not address the enormity of the challenge,” she said. Meanwhile, low-lying nations like the Marshall Islands acknowledged that the deal is a “start” but ultimately insufficient.
While the agreement also lays groundwork for next year’s COP30 in Brazil, big questions remain. Will wealthy nations deliver on their pledges? How will the funds be divided? What can developing nations do if it isn’t enough?
The urgency is real. 2024 is expected to be the hottest year ever (the second record year in a row), with global emissions still rising. The world is currently on track for temperature increases of up to 3.1 C (5.6 F) by the end of the century, according to the 2024 UN Emissions Gap report.Cop29
Trump ‘dominating conversation’ at COP29
Tensions are high at the COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.
France’s top climate official is shunning the UN climate talks after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev criticized its handling of deadly protests in New Caledonia, a French overseas territory, earlier this year. Aliyev also characterized France’s Pacific island territories as “colonies.”
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election is also at the forefront of discussions at the summit.
“Trump’s win is a dominating conversation. However, it’s not the same mood as in 2016, when people were more in shock and processing,” says Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group’s managing director for climate and sustainability
“This time, the world has gone through this before” and “plans to move forward, as they did last time,” adds Friedman.
The president-elect has repeatedly suggested that climate change is a hoax, and his pick to oversee the EPA, Lee Zeldin, has vowed to “roll back regulations” he said are causing US businesses to “struggle.”
Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement on climate change — a global pact to reduce greenhouse gas emissions — during his first term. The Biden administration rejoined the accord, but Trump has pledged to pull the US out once again. Interestingly, Israel, one of Trump’s top allies on the global stage, at COP29 cautioned the president-elect against yanking the US from the Paris Agreement.
Meanwhile, Argentina’s delegation was abruptly ordered to leave the two-week summit on Wednesday. This comes amid reports that Argentina’s Trump-friendly president, Javier Milei, is considering withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. Milei was set to meet with Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday.
We’ll be watching to see how Trump’s win continues to shape conversations at COP29 in the days ahead — and how it impacts US climate policy in the months and years to come.
Climate activists project a message onto the Embassy of Azerbaijan ahead of COP29 climate talks, in London, on Nov. 7, 2024.
Viewpoint: Trump to overshadow UN climate conference
Donald Trump’s election victory last week will loom large in the minds of delegates at this year’s UN climate conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. The government, corporate, and civil society representatives meeting from Nov. 11-22 will be forced to reckon with the return of the climate skeptic who withdrew the world’s largest economy from the Paris Agreement during his first administration. We asked Eurasia Group expert Herbert Crowther how the prospect of Trump’s return to office will affect COP29 and UN efforts to mitigate climate change more broadly.
What has Trump’s attitude generally been toward climate concerns?
Trump was largely dismissive of climate change as a pertinent economic or political issue during his first administration. Though not prominently on display during the recent US election cycle, his attitude toward the issue has not changed since his first term – which will likely become more evident when he takes office next year. He will almost certainly move to scale back programs to develop new low-carbon technologies championed by President Joe Biden’s administration, including those created by the Inflation Reduction Act. That will put more burden on state and local-level officials, who helped fill the climate policy void during Trump’s first term and kept the US energy transition moving forward.
How will Trump’s election affect the mood at COP29?
Trump’s election will significantly dampen the atmosphere at COP29, both in terms of negotiating priorities and broader sentiment among negotiators. Trump’s election will make it harder to reach a consensus on ambitious new targets, particularly for climate finance. Delegates will not regard any commitments made by the outgoing Biden administration as very credible; consequently, other governments will be more reticent to make ambitious promises of their own. In terms of broader sentiment, many negotiators will already begin turning their attention to where the COP process will go next year when Trump takes office and likely withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement again (Biden’s administration rejoined the agreement). The COP process has been largely focused on advancing the key Paris aim of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Given this context, what COP29 objectives are likely still feasible?
One area where negotiations can still likely move forward involves the so-called Article 6 rules for the sale and purchase of carbon emissions credits. Talks around Article 6 have resumed this year after their very public breakdown last year at COP28. They will not be dramatically altered by the US election result and are still trending in a positive direction. For the issue of carbon market rules, the US has stuck to a negotiating position that is more aligned with that of emerging markets, meaning it is not a hurdle to reaching a deal in Baku.
What objectives are not?
Negotiations on assistance from developed economies to emerging market economies to finance climate change mitigation efforts is likely an area that will suffer the most at COP29 as a result of Trump’s victory. There was already limited room for consensus on a new umbrella target for global climate finance – the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal, or NCQG. Trump’s election will likely move the conversation even further away from targets like the $1 trillion in annual climate finance deployment that many emerging markets had been pushing for. Another important topic that will be affected by Trump’s election is the next round of country-level climate plans – the so-called nationally determined contributions, or NDCs. By next February, all parties to the Paris Agreement must submit new plans covering their emissions goals until 2035. With Trump’s election and a worsening outlook for agreements at Baku, more of these plans are likely to present cautious targets, which bodes poorly for medium-term efforts to combat climate change.
Where does the COP process go from here?
A second Trump administration will almost certainly withdraw from the Paris Agreement again. Though the COP process already survived one US absence during Trump’s first term, the global climate policy environment faces greater challenges today. The timeframe to meet targets is shorter, and tensions have intensified between industrialized and emerging markets over who bears the most blame for climate change and should pay for mitigation efforts. Many US states, corporations, and financial institutions will remain relevant players at COP and will continue to push the US energy transition forward, but they will not be able to compensate fully for the lack of federal policies. Meanwhile, the US absence will place greater pressure on China and the EU to assume more of a leadership role in COP and shoulder greater financing commitments. This year’s conference will provide some early signals about that, but 2025 — especially the buildup to COP30 — will be the real litmus test.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor, Eurasia Group
United States President Joe Biden makes a statement on the general election.
Hard Numbers: Biden addresses Trump’s win, Earth keeps getting hotter, Starvation imminent in Myanmar, US forgives Somalia’s debt
74: In the wake of Kamala Harris’ loss in the presidential election, President Joe Biden addressed the country from the White House Rose Garden on Thursday, 74 days before he’s due to hand the keys back to Donald Trump.In his speech, Biden stressed that he would ensure a peaceful transition of power, called for unity, and said that he hoped the result would restore Americans’ faith in election integrity.
2.5: For the second year in a row, scientists at the European Climate Agency report that Earth is the hottest it’s ever been, breaking 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming compared to preindustrial averages. While factors like El Niño and volcanic eruptions are playing a part, they say the data clearly shows an unprecedented sequence of record-breaking temperatures that would be impossible without the levels of greenhouse gasses being emitted by humans.
2 million: Two million people in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, which borders Bangladesh, are on the brink of starvation because of trade blockades and violence that have led to a “total economic collapse,” according to the UN. People in the region are seeing their incomes plummet because of the violence while food prices are soaring due to junta-enforced trade blockades, creating a deadly cycle of conflict and economic crisis.
1.14 billion: The US has decided to cancel $1.14 billion of Somalia’s outstanding loans, a quarter of the country’s outstanding debt. The government has suffered under the crippling bill, borrowed under the era of Siad Barre’s military dictatorship, that went unpaid during the three decades of civil war that followed its collapse in the early 1990s. The forgiveness was part of an IMF and World Bank program that aims to relieve the poorest countries of unsustainable debt levels.