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Moderator Rachel Ramirez, CNN; Dennis Francis, permanent representative of Trinidad and Tobago, president of the General Assembly for the 78th session; and Dr. Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, director of the Ocean Physics program at NASA
UN Secretary-General: Rising seas mean rising “misery”
UNITED NATIONS – For the first time, the United Nations convened a high-level meeting to address the global threats posed by rising sea levels. Secretary-General António Guterres warned attendees on Wednesday that “rising seas mean a rising tide of misery.”
Nations define themselves by their territorial boundaries. But those participating in the high-level meeting were seeking to update international law to reflect the reality of a warming planet and sinking coastlines. The Permanent Representative of Trinidad and Tobago to the United Nations Dennis Francis described the mood as “one of consensus and solidarity.”
Astudy cited by the IPCC — the UN’s top climate change body — projected that the island nations of Tuvalu, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Nauru, and Kiribati may become completely uninhabitable by 2100. If that projection comes true, around 600,000 citizens will become climate refugees.
Creating a new global consensus is essential to address this crisis, but how does one convince people who live far inland, or climate change deniers, to care about this issue?
Francis described sea level rise as a “hydra” affecting “everything,” far more than just coastal and island communities. Displaced persons, food insecurity, and groundwater salinity are likely to affect much more than the roughly one billion who currently live in low-lying coastal areas.
In an interview with GZERO Media, Dr. Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer — who directs the NASA Sea Level Change Team — offered a simple answer: by using data for “clarity.” Even if someone doesn’t believe they’re sick, a fever doesn’t lie, she told us.
NASA released thisinteractive tool using previous tide gauges to predict future sea level rise scenarios through 2150. Spoiler: It’s not good.Graphic Truth: Hurricanes US and Canada
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be exceptionally active, with forecasts predicting 17-25 named storms, including 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes. This surge in activity is driven by unusually warm Atlantic waters and El Niño conditions.
Hurricanes are becoming increasingly expensive for the US, with recent storms like Ian in 2022 and Ida in 2021 causing over $113 billion and $75 billion in damages, respectively. This trend is exacerbated by climate change, which intensifies storms and raises sea levels, amplifying coastal flooding.
As the Arctic melts, geopolitics heats up
As climate change warms the planet, the Arctic Circle ice cap will continue to melt. Beyond the ecological implications, a melting Arctic will open up new opportunities for resource extraction, trade routes, and….military operations. Few nations are more keenly aware of this than the United States and its adversaries, Russia, China, and North Korea.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to talk about how the United States will ensure that its economic and geopolitical interests continue to be met as the Arctic melts. And the threat goes beyond Russia. “China's flexing its muscles in the Bering Strait in the Arctic,” Dunleavy tells Bremmer. “ That's changing as well. So I think as a result of that, you're going to see, I hope to see a different approach by Washington involving our armed forces in Alaska.
Such ramp-ups cannot come a moment too soon, Dunleavy says, since the United States is outmatched when it comes to its presence of the crucial icebreaker ships needed to navigate the arctic passages. “I think what's going to happen is you're probably going to see more discussions on increased navy activity in Alaska,” Dunleavy tells Bremmer, “as well as the need for more icebreakers to joint patrols with our Canadian friends to the East.”
Watch full episode: As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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What the France and UK elections mean for the West
Major Western democracies like France, the UK, Canada, and the US are on the verge of sweeping political change, but how will upcoming elections impact our collective ability to deal with the world’s biggest challenges? How will Western allies approach issues like climate change, the AI revolution, and cyber defense in an increasingly fractured world? Mark Carney, former Governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World for a hard look at three of America’s closest allies: France, Britain, and Canada.
“We're operating in a world where security is paramount. You need resilience,” Carney tells Bremmer, “You need to look to those countries where you have common values and you need to reinforce them.”
Carney and Bremmer also delve into the strategic importance of the US-Canada relationship and how our neighbor to the north can be a reliable, strategic partner in many critical areas, including national security and climate transition. He warns Canadians and Americans shouldn’t “hit the snooze button” when it comes to strengthening US-Canada ties and stresses that Canada can be a critical partner in providing lean energy, crucial minerals, and AI expertise. As for Carney’s rumored political future as a potential Liberal Party leader? Well, you’ll just have to watch the interview to find out.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Ian Explains: How political chaos in the UK, France, & Canada impacts the US
Big political changes are coming in Western democracies, is the US ready to deal with the fallout? Voters in the United Kingdom and France will head to the polls in the coming weeks after UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron called snap national elections. Both political gambles could have a huge impact on everything from the West’s collective ability to deal with climate change to the AI revolution and countering China’s growing influence.
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the tumultuous landscapes of French and British politics right now, with an eye on upcoming elections in Canada and the United States.
In Britain, Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party is almost guaranteed to lose control of the government. In France, the far-right National Rally Party is highly favored to win the most seats in the National Assembly. A similar story is playing out in Canada, setting the stage for a potentially brutal electoral defeat next year.
So why should Americans care about all this political chaos so far from home? Watch Ian Explains for more on what’s at stake with so many big elections on the horizon.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- G7 meeting: Ukraine and Meloni take center stage ›
- Macron-Meloni spat spotlights Europe’s left-right divide ›
- Ian Explains: Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election? ›
- UK Prime Minister Sunak's push for early election will hardly boost his chances ›
- Macron's snap election gamble will have repercussions for France and EU ›
A carcass lies on a grassland in Oendor-Bayan county in central Mongolia, 03/29/2000
Mongolians are reeling as their herds starve
Mongolia’s government is scrambling as catastrophic weather is killing animals so quickly that a quarter of the national herd may starve. Thousands of families face destitution after losing nearly all their livestock, which drives 80% of the country’s agricultural output and 11% of GDP.
What’s the problem? A nasty weather phenomenon known as dzud or “disaster,” a combination of dry summers and harsh winter storms that create layers of ice on the ground. Arid conditions leave animals underfed going into winter, and then they can’t crack through the rock-hard ice to forage. The resulting images are heartbreaking: lifeless, emaciated sheep, yaks, camels, and horses stacked high on pickup trucks for disposal.
Dzuds are nothing new, but scientists say climate change has made them more frequent. Six of the last 10 years have seen the dzud phenomenon in Mongolia, and this winter saw the heaviest snowfall since 1975. The government predicts that nearly 15 million animals may die in a country with just 3.3 million people.
What can be done? International aid has been grossly inadequate, with even a modest $5.5 million appeal from the Red Cross in March going 80% unfulfilled. The ancient lifestyles of the steppe may need to change permanently, as overreliance on herding has accelerated desertification, which worsens the dzud. Ulaanbaatar aims to expand the rich minerals sector as a more stable and sustainable economic pillar.Graphic Truth: Carbon in context
The US and Canada are both racing against the clock to lower their greenhouse gas emissions. As the effects of climate change become more apparent and deadly, countries are grappling with how to curb their emissions without curbing economic growth.
Canada, a resource-rich nation, is at a crossroads. Along with transportation and industry, the oil and gas sector dominates the country's emissions profile. Still, Canada has embarked on an ambitious journey to redefine its environmental legacy with one of the boldest climate commitments: pledging to reduce emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030. Policies such as carbon pricing, identified as the top driver of emissions reductions, will prevent 226 megatonnes of carbon pollution from being released by 2030.
Meanwhile, the US energy sector, primarily powered by fossil fuels, is the largest source of emissions, contributing significantly to the nation's carbon footprint. Transportation, industry, and agriculture follow closely behind. But the US has made strides in addressing its emissions through a combination of federal mandates, state-level initiatives, and private-sector innovation. The Clean Power Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act, for example, are meant to incentivize the private sector to lead the way in renewable energy innovation and adoption.
Places where oil and gas are produced, however, may experience the most economic upheaval from the clean energy transition, while local communities near fossil fuel industries are more likely to experience environmental degradation and health impacts.Smooth sailing for LNG amid Biden’s pause, Trudeau’s hesitation, and Johnson’s political gamble?
If you thought America’s liquefied natural gas policy had nothing to do with Russia’s war in Ukraine, think again. LNG is all over the news right now, thanks to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) cooking up a plan to link the issues.
Meanwhile, north of the border, Canada is having its own LNG squabbles as the future of the multibillion-dollar industry is being debated. Tensions between the federal government, which is increasingly weary of fossil fuel mega-projects, and provincial governments keen on resource revenue, are shaping the debate.
And so are considerations about what’s happening down south. In January, the Biden administration suspended pending approvals of LNG exports to countries with which it doesn’t have a free trade agreement. It’s waiting on the Department of Energy to sort out what these exports mean in terms of costs to US consumers and climate impact. The pause came in no small part thanks to the efforts of climate change activists.
Observers suspect Trudeau can’t get too far from Biden on the issue, and cross-border climate activists used Biden’s more aggressive climate policies to try to box in Trudeau. In January, Biden’s LNG pause put Canada’s LNG export policy in the spotlight, pressuring the country to enact its own moratorium (which it hasn’t done) – especially if it hopes to meet its 2030 climate goals. Also, the LNG market is only so big and may be headed for a glut, so US projects or exports – or a lack thereof – shape Canadian calculations.
When the US suspended new LNG approvals in January, President Joe Biden was quick to point out that the pause wouldn’t affect existing exports to US allies in the “near term.” But in the long-term? A lot depends on the global market, geopolitical considerations, and domestic politics, including climate activist pressure on Biden – who faces a reelection battle in November.
Biden was nonetheless keen in January to make everyone aware the US remains the top LNG exporter and that the energy source wasn’t going to stop flowing overnight. In fact, the administration expects export capacity to more than double by 2028, and last year the country’s LNG project approvals were record-setting.
The trade authorization review is important because it calls into question how viable LNG projects and exports will be long term in a world in which climate policies are moving away from fossil fuels, which are facing increasing competition from renewables. But it may also be up for negotiation.
Biden wants desperately to get an aid bill through Congress to fund Ukraine’s defense efforts against Russia. The Senate has passed a bill, but it’s stalled in the House, where Johnson has held it up.
Facing pressure from his own party, who oppose the Ukraine aid package, Johnson – who is also fighting to retain his gavel – has dreamed up a trade that involves putting the aid bill to a vote and backing it in exchange for Biden reopening the LNG taps. Trouble is, that may not be enough for GOP hardliners, or at least not enough of them to get the thing passed, which would compromise not only the Ukraine aid deal but Johnson’s speakership and political career.
The plan wasn’t initially warmly embraced, particularly among the right-wing GOPers more focused on border policy than LNG. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats weren’t super enthusiastic about it either, and climate change activists and politicians are pressuring Biden to reject the deal. On Tuesday, Reuters reported that White House sources said the administration was open to the deal, pending a look at the full plan, but a White House spokesperson said the report was untrue and that President Joe Biden stands behind the pause. All of this back-and-forth and crossed wires suggests Johnson’s deal might be more of an opening bid than a final one.
Noah Daponte-Smith, a US analyst at Eurasia Group, says this is merely “the negotiating stage,” noting that whether the Ukraine package gets through Congress is another matter. Johnson is trapped between his own party and Democrats, both of whom he needs if the Ukraine bill has any chance of passing.
The Democrats want a clean bill – with no extra measures – which means they aren’t interested in LNG additions. Even Johnson isn’t “enormously committed” to LNG, according to Daponte-Smith, but the speaker is running out of options.
“I think he wants to hold on to the gavel and this is something convenient he can put forward to the Republican caucus,” he says.
The border deal is a non-starter for the Ukraine package, Daponte-Smithe says, given that former President Donald Trump has declared it dead.
And it’s not just the US squabbling over LNG.
Last week, Canadian Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkison said the Liberal government wasn’t interested in funding future LNG projects. Beyond what’s already in the works, no more LNG projects will open in Canada unless the private sector is willing to go it alone. As of December, there were eight LNG projects in development worth over CA$100 billion, which includes the LNG Canada project, which Ottawa sank CA$275 million of public money into back in 2019, calling the project an investment “up to $40 billion” that “will lead to 10,000 middle-class jobs.” How times have changed.
Ottawa is turning its back despite Greece recently expressing interest in buying LNG from Canada – as have Japan and Germany. A few years ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wasn’t convinced of the upsides to shipping LNG to Europe, and Wilkinson’s latest comments suggest the PM hasn’t changed his mind. Of course, just because there’s demand for Canadian LNG today doesn’t mean there will be tomorrow, and the IEA expects slower demand growth in the years to come.
LNG opponents suggest the future for the energy source is dim and are calling for Canada not to see any US slowdown on LNG as an opportunity to fill the gap. Since nuclear starts and restarts are on the rise in Asia, and renewables projects are soaring globally, the world faces a potential oversupply of gas.
Neither the US nor Canada are going to fully halt export and development anytime soon. But the fact that the Biden administration and Trudeau government are even the slightest bit weary of LNG projects is a major development in energy and climate policy.