Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
What (or who) will replace USAID?
As Washington pulls back from its decades-long role as the world’s leading aid donor, the humanitarian system is facing what David Miliband calls a “very big shock.” On GZERO World, the International Rescue Committee president and CEO tells Ian Bremmer that the US has historically been the anchor of the global aid system, contributing nearly $4 out of every $10 aid dollar. But amid the cancellation of USAID and a dramatic pullback in foreign funding, vital programs are now closing and the impacts are being felt all over the world.
Who–or what–could step in to fill the gap? Miliband says China isn’t interested in large-scale humanitarian aid, focused instead on economic development though initiatives like Belt and Road. Europe, meanwhile, is stretched thin by war in Ukraine and pandemic debt. The Gulf States and Japan are debating their role, but the scale of US funding remains unmatched. The result, Miliband argues, is “sucking sound” of money leaving the system, leaving the world’s poorest to pay the price.
“The US was the anchor of the global aid system,” Miliband explains, “When you pull an anchor in choppy waters, the boat rocks and the passengers get seasick. That’s what’s happening at the moment.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
View of Tehran at sunset on February 26th, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Iranian water shortages prompt public holiday, Trump admin to burn contraceptives, Ozzy leaves the stage for the last time, & More
1: Iran announced an impromptu one-day public holiday on Wednesday for Tehran’s residents, in an effort to save on water and electricity. Intense heatwaves have added strain to an already-worsening water crisis in the country, brought about by climate change and mismanagement.
$10 million: The Trump administration will incinerate nearly $10 million worth of US-funded contraceptives – intended for poorer nations – in France, after storing them for months in a Belgian warehouse following cuts to USAID programs. The White House reportedly rejected offers from the United Nations and other NGOs to buy or distribute the supplies themselves.
$4 billion: A Saudi business delegation arrived in Syria on Wednesday, where it is expected to sign $4 billion worth of joint projects and deals with Damascus. Riaydh has been a key financial backer in Syria’s post-war rebuilding efforts.
100: Over 100 humanitarian organizations issued a joint statement on Wednesday calling on governments to take decisive action against mass starvation in Gaza. Demanding an immediate and permanent ceasefire, the statement warns that Israel’s partial aid blockade on the enclave has left assistance workers – alongside Palestinian civilians – “wasting away.”
76: Heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne died at 76 on Tuesday. Just weeks ago, the ailing rock icon held a final reunion concert with Black Sabbath, the supergroup that he started as a young lad in Birmingham, United Kingdom, more than half a century ago. So long Oz, may the Crazy Train keep chugging on into eternity.
The Trump admin can do more to help Sudan, says Sen. Warner
In this clip from GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Senator Mark Warner explains why he’s taken on Sudan’s brutal civil war as a personal and political priority—and why the US, under both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, has failed to act. “More people die every day in Sudan than in Gaza and Ukraine combined,” Warner says, calling the conflict a humanitarian catastrophe hiding in plain sight.
Warner argues that neither side in Sudan’s civil war deserves US backing—“both teams are bad”—but that Trump, in particular, has a unique opportunity to pressure Saudi Arabia and the UAE to stop funding the violence. “It would be a huge policy win,” he says. Yet, despite bipartisan concern, Warner says there’s been no serious focus on the crisis. As US aid gets clawed back and global attention stays elsewhere, Warner warns the price isn’t just moral—it’s geopolitical. “When we don’t step up, China fills the void—for pennies on the dollar.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Spy games and loyalty tests with Senator Mark Warner
It’s been a banner stretch for President Trump: a major strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, a sprawling tax-and-spending bill pushed through Congress, and a growing foreign policy resume. But beneath the surface of all the flag-waving and victory laps, Democrats like Senator Mark Warner are warning that the real story is unfolding in the shadows—inside an increasingly politicized US intelligence community.
In this episode of the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with the senior Senator from Virginia at his Capitol Hill office for a wide-ranging conversation about what’s breaking inside America’s national security institutions—and what that means for foreign policy decisions from Tehran to Gaza. Warner doesn’t hold back: “We’re in uncharted, dangerous territory. [Intelligence] Analysts are being told to change their conclusions—or lose their jobs.”
The two also dive into the fallout from the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, the fragile push for a Gaza ceasefire, and why Warner sees a largely ignored civil war in Sudan as one of the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crises—and a rare opportunity for the US to lead.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're publishedRescuers work at the site of a building that collapsed after the strong earthquake in Mandalay, Myanmar, on Sunday, March 30, 2025.
Myanmar struggles to cope with aftermath of quake
The death toll continues to rise in Myanmar after a devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck near the central city of Mandalay on March 28. Approximately 1,700 people are dead and over 3,400 injured, with the US Geological Service estimating that casualties could top 10,000. The quake caused extensive damage to infrastructure, including bridges, roads, and hospitals, and left thousands homeless. Relief operations are further complicated by Myanmar’s ongoing civil war — the opposition said it would commence a two-week ceasefire in earthquake-affected areas, even as the junta reportedly continued bombing civilian areas.
Who’s helping? The international response has been broad and swift. The United Nations allocated $5 million for immediate relief efforts, the EU pledged $2.7 million in emergency aid, and Australia provided AU$2 million through the Red Cross. China, Russia, India, Hong Kong, Thailand, and Singapore have sent rescue and medical teams, while Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, and Malaysia are also providing assistance.
What about the US? President Donald Trump has offered help, but former officials with USAID question how cuts to that agency will impact relief efforts. The US pledged $2 million in aid “through Myanmar-based humanitarian assistance organizations” and said in a statement that an emergency response team from USAID is deploying to the country. However, Sarah Charles, a former senior USAID official during the Biden administration, described the agency as “in shambles” and lacking the necessary personnel and resources for disaster relief, such as rescuing survivors trapped in collapsed buildings. We’ll be watching whether America is able to deliver assistance effectively – and how that help is received.Why the US is sending aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week. A big $90 billion package that has been approved by the US House of Representatives, going through the Senate shortly after months of debate and, all of the package, all three major pieces of it, have some significant, complicated features.
First of all, the biggest piece for Ukraine, $60 billion, massive military support.
They had been in danger of losing significant more territory. This certainly shores them up. It helps the Ukrainians. It makes the Europeans panic less, but, you know, can they longer term hold on? What is the end game? The Ukrainians are, of course, running short not just of material to fight, but also air defense capabilities and, critically, people, soldiers. It's much harder for them to get people for the front lines than it is for the authoritarian, and much larger populated Russia. And so, the intention is that the Ukrainians don't fall apart, but of course, longer term, the idea that the US will continue to be able to provide 60 billion in support year after year. Certainly not true if Trump becomes president, probably not true if Biden wins a second term. What you really want to do is try to find a way to get them in a better position so that negotiations, inevitably, that need to occur with Russia, can be more productive and more constructive from the Ukrainian side, from the European side, from the NATO side. The US kick the can on this last year when the Americans, were in much better position supporting Ukraine. Now it's harder. Always is the case is that you think that things are going to get better. You don't feel like taking the political risk and as a consequence you extend and pretend. And now they're in a worse position. So I'm glad that the money came through. I'm glad the Ukrainians, are still fighting courageously and want to fight courageously. But of course, longer term, this war leads to some degree of partition where the Ukrainians are losing their land.
Israel, closest ally of the United States in the Middle East. Some 17 billion in military support for Israel, also some 9 billion in humanitarian aid in Gaza in this plan.
But, of course, increasingly, the United States does not support Israel continuing to fight against Hamas in Gaza. They want to see a lot more protection for Palestinian civilians, which the Israelis have been reluctant to put in place. They don't want to see a ground offensive into Rafah. Over a million Palestinians shelter in there. The Israelis are fully intent on continuing with that, proceeding with it. They did want to see a cease-fire that was linked directly to a hostage release. Now, increasingly, the US is talking about those two things as critical but delinked. And at the same time as the US is providing all this money, you have sanctions being placed by the United States on battalions of the Israeli Defense Forces engaged in human rights violations. This shows just how impossible this position is for President Biden to maneuver domestically, not to mention internationally. The US is overwhelmingly, the one country that is most supportive of Israel. Biden is overwhelmingly the political leader that is most supportive of Israel. But most of his constituents are not. And this is absolutely going to hurt him, even though it's a foreign policy issue and they don't usually play that heavily in recent decades in the election coming up in November. And you’ll see it, of course, across campuses all over the country, including my own at Columbia.
And then finally Taiwan. And this is in a sense the least controversial, because everyone on the Democratic and Republican side pretty much supports more support for Taiwan, is opposed to China. It's very easy to get lots of legislation that makes life more difficult for China. At the same time, though, the long term strategy of the United States is to make Taiwan less important, less important for the Americans in making sure that semiconductor production, moves from Taiwan to the United States, to other allies, not just a few miles off of the mainland Chinese coast, but also export controls that prevent the Chinese from getting advanced semiconductors from Taiwan as well. In other words, the big US strategy is not just arming the Taiwanese and helping them defend themselves, but also making Taiwan fundamentally less important to mainland China. and one of the main reasons that the Chinese would not be interested in attacking Taiwan long term or squeezing them hard economically long term, is because they're so indispensable to the Chinese economy. This is not going to be the case long term.
In all three of these areas, you've got the United States with friends, but they are less aligned with strategically than they are tactically. And that means that this money that we see going forward is all about kicking the can on short term gains that make sense politically for the US right now. But long term do not resolve the challenges that exist for the US with these countries.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Tiktok ban and foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan passes in the House ›
- Split the difference: Johnson to push separate bills for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan ›
- Europe welcomes US Ukraine package, but pushes to add even more aid ›
- How the US election will change the world ›
- Biden vs Trump foreign policy: Political scientist Stephen Walt weighs in ›
- Ian Explains: Will foreign policy decide the 2024 US election? ›
- Is the US aid to Ukraine too little, too late? - GZERO Media ›
US aid for Israel & Ukraine hangs in the balance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the House pass the Senate-approved aid package for Ukraine and Israel?
Well, certainly not if the Freedom Caucus and the Speaker of the House have anything to say about it. So, I mean, as of today, what the Senate has passed with a lot of Republicans on board looks dead in the House. But of course, the ability to jam the House and force them to accept something or there's no government funding, that is a game of chicken that we've seen before and the Senate may well continue to be ready to play. So it is not dead yet, but aid is looking challenging. And let's be clear, irrespective of what happens for 2024, it's going to be very hard to get any more aid for the Ukrainians going forward. And everybody is deeply aware of that reality.
How likely will Israel proceed with a ground invasion of Rafah in Gaza?
Well, keep in mind, this is right on the border with Egypt. The Egyptians have said that this will blow up their peace agreement with Israel if they decide to go into that space full on with a ground invasion. There's already been some incursions, including one that freed two hostages held by Hamas. So clearly that has huge support from the Israeli population as a whole. The Biden administration has publicly said that they don't want to see a ground invasion, especially because there are no circumstances, at least not set up yet, that the Palestinians who continue to be forced to move and move and move will be safe in this environment. I think that we are very close to a temporary cease fire and more hostages being released. So part of this is pressure from Israel to get that done. If you made me bet right now, I'd say we actually see the deal first. But that is not going to end eventual hostilities from ticking back up between the Israelis and Hamas in Gaza.
What are the wider implications for the Indonesia presidential election?
More state influence over key industries in the economy. Probably a little bit more willingness to blow out the budget from a fiscal perspective. But the likely winner, Prabowo, his vice presidential running mate, is the son of Jokowi, the president of Indonesia. And that implies first geopolitically, very similar orientation to have balanced relations between China economically but the US strategically. I don't see that changing at all. There is still a big question about whether they're going to move the capital. This has been a massive effort with a lot of money that is at play and it's not clear that Prabowo is as convinced that that needs to be the legacy as Jokowi has been. That'll be worth watching very carefully when he becomes president, for those that care. I do, hope you do, too.
- Stalled deal on US border security leaves Ukraine in the lurch ›
- Poll: American support for Ukraine aid is falling ›
- Hard Numbers: March shows solidarity for Israel, US Army overturns convictions of Black soldiers, US inflation cools, EU falls short on artillery shells for Ukraine, House passes funding bill ›
- Zelensky's US trip likely to secure aid for Ukraine ›
- US aid for Israel: How much and since when? ›
A collage showing the US Capitol, former US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz.
Washington chaos rings alarm bells in Ukraine and Europe
You’ve heard the news. Rebel Republicans and unsympathetic Democrats ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from his job yesterday. That post is now officially “vacant.” For now, Patrick McHenry (R-NC) holds the post of Speaker Pro Tempore to ensure there’s someone there to keep the lights on and the process moving toward the election of a new speaker.
Americans (and the world) are now trying to figure out what it all means. But keep in mind, this has never happened before. The only previous attempt to fire a speaker of the US House of Representatives failed, and that was 113 years ago. The cliché “uncharted waters” fits perfectly here.
But … you’ve got questions, lots of questions, and I’m here to give you the best available answers.
We just survived a shutdown threat last weekend. Should we expect more of these congressional showdowns?
Absolutely. Current funding for the government runs out on Nov. 17, and we may not have a speaker to make a deal by then. Even if the House is able to elect a new speaker well before then, that person may feel obliged to continue this game of legislative chicken well into next year by continuing to offer only short-term government funding deals in exchange for concessions from Democrats. In short, the “shutdown showdowns” have only just begun.
Who will be the next speaker?
Get ready for a potentially bloody fight among Republicans. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), conservative Jim Jordan (R-OH), and Kevin Hern (R-OK) have already made moves to enter the race, but there will be more names. For now, Scalise has the most friends with votes, so he’s the early favorite.
Can McHenry, the temporary speaker, get stuff done while we wait?
Again, we’re in uncharted waters. McHenry, McCarthy’s hand-picked successor, has an open-ended ability to preside over House business. There are no rules that prevent him from holding the job indefinitely.
But because this has never happened in American history, the limits of McHenry’s authority aren’t clear. The House parliamentarian is the person with the responsibility to tell us what the rules say. (Be glad you don’t have that job.) Whatever the rules-interpreter/rules-keeper decides will create a precedent.
What does all this chaos mean for Ukraine?
It’s bad news for Volodymyr Zelensky, to be sure. It’s possible that Congress will approve new money for Ukraine before the end of the year, but it’s looking a lot less likely now than it did a few days ago. There are a sizeable number of House Republicans who don’t want the US to send more money to Ukraine, certainly not the additional $40 billion that President Joe Biden wants.
Step back for a moment to last weekend, when most of us were breathing a deep sigh of relief that the shutdown had been averted. To get that deal, pro-Ukraine Democrats had agreed (at least temporarily) to pull new Ukraine funding from the budget deal. They fully intended to fight over that another day, but they set a precedent that Ukraine aid was a bargaining chip they were willing to put on the table.
Anti-Ukraine-aid Republicans saw that, and now they’ll want that concession every time they bargain with Democrats to keep the government open.
OK, so why didn’t Democrats save McCarthy yesterday? They could have done that, right?
Yes, they could have. But the Dems felt McCarthy had backed away from too many promises to deserve saving. From the Dems’ point of view, McCarthy went from condemning Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol and calling for an investigation of his responsibility to backing Trump and then to launching an impeachment process against Biden. Democrats made clear early yesterday they had no intention of bailing out a speaker they neither liked nor trusted.
But the Democrats do want to support Ukraine, right? Haven’t they left Ukraine in a precarious place?
Yes, they have.
Here are the scenarios that could protect near-term US aid for Ukraine …
- Republicans could elect a speaker who’s willing to defy dozens of his fellow Republican members of Congress to pass a bill that includes billions more for Ukraine.
- Or Democrats in the Senate could refuse to compromise on Ukraine aid and dare Republicans to shut down the US government.
Neither is all that likely.
By the way, it’s not that all US financial help for Ukraine has stopped. The Pentagon still has $5 billion in additional aid and drawdown authority in its budget. That will meet some of Ukraine’s needs in the coming months.
So, what’s the lasting damage from all this?
Ukraine’s leaders now know the US isn’t a reliable long-term backer, even with a supportive president and the backing of most members of Congress. And they know they’ll have to fight their war differently now. They’ll have to keep more firepower in reserve to be sure they don’t run out of weapons and ammo at a time when new supplies aren’t coming.
They knew that was a risk tied to Trump and next November’s US election. But now, Kyiv must deal with this risk immediately.
Washington’s chaos is also ringing alarm bells across Europe, where leaders know that, particularly on the weapons front, they can’t backfill what will be lost if supplies from Washington begin to run dry.
And the Europeans have to think about their own security. What, they wonder, does all this mean for NATO if this is the future of the Republican Party in America?
In short, a lot of trust has been lost, and it takes much longer to rebuild trust than it does to lose it.