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Israeli police search the scene of an explosion near a branch of the US embassy in Tel Aviv early Friday.
Deadly drone attack hits Tel Aviv ahead of Bibi’s visit to Washington
The Houthi militia in Yemen claimed responsibility for a drone attack in Tel Aviv early Friday that killed at least one person and wounded 10 others. The drone crashed into an apartment building not far from the US Embassy in Israel’s second-largest city.
This was the first time the Iran-backed group carried out a lethal attack in Israel – and it involved an Iran-made drone. The Israeli military is investigating how the drone evaded its defense systems. The drone was detected, but it wasn’t intercepted due to an “error,” said Israeli military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari.
The war in Gaza has fueled major tensions between Israel and Tehran, as well as its proxies in the region. For months, there have been concerns that Israel could go to war in Lebanon with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Friday’s drone attack occurred not long after Israel announced it killed a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, and the fatal incident will likely raise further concerns that the war in Gaza risks spiraling into a much broader, regional conflict.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to visit the US next week to address Congress. Though the US and Israel remain close allies, Netanyahu’s prosecution of the war in Gaza has made him unpopular with some Democratic lawmakers in Washington – particularly progressives – and he has frequently butted heads with the Biden administration.
The fact that the Knesset on Thursday overwhelmingly voted in favor of a resolution rejecting the establishment of a Palestinian state – a move indicative of growing Israeli opposition to a two-state solution, a goal the US has pushed for decades – could also lead to some awkward conversations for Netanyahu in Washington.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the state memorial ceremony for the Altalena martyrs at the Nachalat Yitzhak cemetery in Givatayim, Israel, June 18, 2024.
Too late to prevent an Israel-Hezbollah war?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview on Sunday said the “intense phase” of the war in Gaza will soon end while effectively rejecting a US-backed proposal meant to pave the way to a permanent cease-fire. But in an apparent effort to contain the potential fallout from his comments, the Israeli leader reversed course Monday and said he remains committed to the cease-fire plan.
During the Sunday interview, however, Bibi also said the IDF could shift its focus to Lebanon amid an escalating tit-for-tat with Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militant group. “After the end of the intense phase, we will have the possibility to shift some of the power north, and we will do it,” he said.
Thwarting two-front war. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is in Washington this week to meet with US officials for what he called “critical” discussions on Gaza and Lebanon. Gen. Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned Sunday that Iran could swoop in to aid Hezbollah if Israel escalates the fight — and said the US would be limited in its ability to help.
We’ll be watching to see if the US can help prevent a two-front war in the days ahead.
FILE PHOTO: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaks during his meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (not pictured) at the Pentagon in Washington, U.S., March 26, 2024.
Israeli leaders visit Washington amid rising tensions
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant traveled to Washington, DC, this weekend to discuss the final phase of Israel’s offensive in Gaza — and to address growing concern over hostilities with the Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah.
Since Hamas’ attacks of Oct. 7, Hezbollah has ramped up its rocket and drone attacks on Israel, forcing the evacuation of northern border towns. Now, as Israel targets the last Hamas strongholds in Gaza, the concern is that the conflict could shift north to Lebanon.Last Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah posted a video threatening to destroy key Israeli infrastructure with missiles if they are attacked.
The London Sunday Telegraph reported a significant increase in Iranian shipments of rockets to the group via Beirut's Rafic Al Hariri International Airport. “We are prepared for any action in Gaza, Lebanon, and more areas,” Gallant said before meeting US officials this week.
Netanyahu’s DC drama. Meanwhile, the politics are becoming increasingly perilous on Capitol Hill. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to address the US Congress on July 24, and many Democrats are conflicted about whether to attend. After Bibi released a video last week chastising Washington for withholding military aid – the US has only withheld one shipment while providing $12 billion in aid since Oct. 7 – some fear furthernegativity about US support for Israel from Bibi could complicate Biden’s reelection campaign.Palestinians leave Rafah in fear of an Israeli military operation in the southern Gaza Strip, on Feb. 13, 2024.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon revive concerns about widening war
Israel launched airstrikes in Lebanon on Wednesday, killing at least 10 civilians, in response to a suspected Hezbollah rocket attack that killed an Israeli soldier. Hezbollah on Thursday said Israel would "pay the price for these crimes."
The US raised alarm about the potential for escalation and pushed for a diplomatic resolution to the tensions.
Israel and Hezbollah — a powerful Iran-backed militia group that collaborates with Hamas — have traded fire for months as the war in Gaza fuels wider tensions, raising concerns that Israel could end up in a two-front war.
Israel's recent airstrikes “reflect domestic political and social pressures to respond more forcefully to Hezbollah,” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group.
And there’s likely to be more where that came from. Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned Tuesday that attacks on Israel end only “when the shooting stops in Gaza.” However, he has previously signaled reluctance to face a full-scale war with Israel, which could inflict huge pain on Lebanon more broadly.
Meanwhile, as Israel prepares to invade the southern Gaza town of Rafah, where 1.4 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, the US, Egypt, and Qatar are scrambling to establish a new truce. So far, both Hamas and Israel have rejected the terms.Members of Lebanon's Hezbollah wave Hezbollah and Lebanese flags during a rally in southern Lebanon marking the ninth anniversary of the end of the 2006 war with Israel, August 14, 2015.
Will Israel invade Lebanon?
Israel is getting fed up with Hezbollah as it continues to exchange cross-border fire with the powerful Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, which has close ties to Hamas. On Thursday, an Israeli government spokesperson urged the international community to speak out now against Hezbollah’s “brazen” actions “instead of later criticizing our decisive response.”
This echoed stark warnings from top Israeli officials about the escalating situation, who’ve signaled that an invasion of southern Lebanon is not off the table. The Israeli military and Hezbollah have regularly traded fire since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.
“If the world and the Lebanese government don’t act in order to prevent the firing on Israel’s northern residents, and to distance Hezbollah from the border, the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] will do it,” Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet and a former defense minister, said Wednesday.
Gantz said time for a diplomatic solution is running out, warning that the next stage in fighting with Hezbollah “will be deep, forceful, and surprising.” His comments come amid growing concerns that the war in Gaza is raising the risks of a regional conflict.
The hostilities with Hezbollah have led to casualties on both sides of the border, and the IDF says 80,000 people have been evacuated from northern Israel while the UN says over 64,000 have been displaced in southern Lebanon. The fighting has killed more than 150 people in Lebanon, including over 20 civilians (three were journalists), per AFP. At least four civilians and nine soldiers have been killed on the Israeli side, its military says.
Though Israel is calling on the Lebanese government to do something about Hezbollah, it has little power to do so. Beirut currently has no president, no functioning government for over a year, and no money to speak of. Not to mention, Hezbollah has lawmakers in parliament, officials in the ministries, and its armed forces are more powerful than the official Lebanese army.
Prepared to strike: In reference to the border hostilities, Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on Wednesday said that the military needed to be “prepared to strike if required.”The Israeli military is currently at a state of heightened readiness along the northern border.
Israel has invaded Lebanon in the past, including in 2006 after Hezbollah launched a deadly cross-border raid and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah was also founded after Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
We’ll be watching to see if Israel launches another incursion into Lebanon in the coming days.
An Israeli tank fires towards Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, at the Israel-Gaza border, in southern Israel, December 27, 2023.
The war in Gaza has turned the Middle East into a powder keg
The risks of a regional war in the Middle East are rising, as a number of different actors with competing interests and historic rivalries become increasingly entangled amid the war in Gaza.
In the past week alone, President Joe Biden ordered strikes against an Iran-backed militia after several US troops were wounded in an attack in Iraq, the US shot down drones and missiles in the Red Sea launched by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Iran accused Israel of killing a top general in Syria and vowed revenge, and Israel and Hezbollah continued trading fire – prompting Israeli officials to raise the possibility of invading Lebanon.
“We are now at a fork in the road: Either Hezbollah backs off from the Israeli border, in line with UN Resolution 1701, or we will push it away ourselves,” Eylon Levy, an Israeli government spokesperson, said Wednesday.
All of this is part of an escalating tit-for-tat between Iranian proxies, the US, and Israel that is intrinsically linked to the war in Gaza. Iran-backed militias have targeted US troops dozens of times since Oct. 7, while the Houthis have carried out a string of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Iran’s proxies have been clear that their recent attacks on US forces, Israel, and other entities in the region are a direct response to the war in Gaza.
Meanwhile, there’s currently little hope for a halt in the fighting in Gaza, even a temporary one, despite global calls for a cease-fire as the death toll rises and the humanitarian crisis in the territory worsens. Egypt in recent days put forward an ambitious peace proposal, but neither Hamas nor Israel appear eager to embrace a lasting truce. Hamas is unwilling to give up control of Gaza and Israel is determined to destroy the militant group. Beyond Gaza, settler violence is increasing in the occupied West Bank.
Experts on the region warn that the worsening situation is a recipe for disaster.
It’s still “hard to predict when these tensions will get out of control and the region is plunged into an abyss,” Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute, tweeted on Tuesday.
“At some point, one of the many parties that are involved in this conflict will miscalculate,” says Slim.
Iran is protecting itself through restraint in Israel-Hamas war, says Kim Ghattas
Will Iran use Hezbollah fighters to help Hamas in Gaza?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas about the rising tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, as Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters exchange daily rocket fire and thousands of people on both sides flee their homes. Like Hamas, Hezbollah has an eradicationist ideology that calls for the destruction of the state of Israel, a position that could be untenable if the border clashes continue to escalate. Hezbollah is Iran’s most powerful proxy, but Ghattas doesn’t think it’s in Tehran’s interest to use the militant group to further Hamas’s goals.
“For 44 years Iran has claimed that is a supporter of the Palestinian people,” Ghattas explains, “I think Iran has come to realize that its use of the Palestinian cause has bumped up against the limits of what’s possible.”
Ghattas points out that Hezbollah’s primary purpose for Iran is to serve as a deterrent against potential strikes by Israel or the United States. The biggest priority now is to find a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian question. Given the urgency of the situation in Gaza, Iran may be more willing to discuss the possibility of a two-state solution, a position that would have been impossible to imagine even a few years ago.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Will Israel's mistakes with Hezbollah be repeated with Hamas?
Is Israel doomed to repeat the mistakes from its Lebanon invasion in Gaza?
For Lebanese people, it’s difficult not to see the current war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza through the lens of Israeli occupation. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas explains why the history of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon is incredibly relevant today: it led to a two-month siege where the city was cut off from food, water and fuel and killed 17,000 people. Now, a similar situation is playing out in Gaza and Israel is at risk of repeating the mistakes of the past. Ghattas reminds Bremmer that despite the thousands of civilian casualties, Israel failed to accomplish its strategic goals during the Lebanon invasion and is at risk of the same in Gaza.
“They said they wanted to eradicate Hezbollah,” Ghattas warns, “And yet, here we are. Hezbollah is still incredibly strong, even stronger than it was.”