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Israeli strikes in Lebanon revive concerns about widening war
Israel launched airstrikes in Lebanon on Wednesday, killing at least 10 civilians, in response to a suspected Hezbollah rocket attack that killed an Israeli soldier. Hezbollah on Thursday said Israel would "pay the price for these crimes."
The US raised alarm about the potential for escalation and pushed for a diplomatic resolution to the tensions.
Israel and Hezbollah — a powerful Iran-backed militia group that collaborates with Hamas — have traded fire for months as the war in Gaza fuels wider tensions, raising concerns that Israel could end up in a two-front war.
Israel's recent airstrikes “reflect domestic political and social pressures to respond more forcefully to Hezbollah,” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group.
And there’s likely to be more where that came from. Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned Tuesday that attacks on Israel end only “when the shooting stops in Gaza.” However, he has previously signaled reluctance to face a full-scale war with Israel, which could inflict huge pain on Lebanon more broadly.
Meanwhile, as Israel prepares to invade the southern Gaza town of Rafah, where 1.4 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, the US, Egypt, and Qatar are scrambling to establish a new truce. So far, both Hamas and Israel have rejected the terms.Will Israel invade Lebanon?
Israel is getting fed up with Hezbollah as it continues to exchange cross-border fire with the powerful Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, which has close ties to Hamas. On Thursday, an Israeli government spokesperson urged the international community to speak out now against Hezbollah’s “brazen” actions “instead of later criticizing our decisive response.”
This echoed stark warnings from top Israeli officials about the escalating situation, who’ve signaled that an invasion of southern Lebanon is not off the table. The Israeli military and Hezbollah have regularly traded fire since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.
“If the world and the Lebanese government don’t act in order to prevent the firing on Israel’s northern residents, and to distance Hezbollah from the border, the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] will do it,” Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet and a former defense minister, said Wednesday.
Gantz said time for a diplomatic solution is running out, warning that the next stage in fighting with Hezbollah “will be deep, forceful, and surprising.” His comments come amid growing concerns that the war in Gaza is raising the risks of a regional conflict.
The hostilities with Hezbollah have led to casualties on both sides of the border, and the IDF says 80,000 people have been evacuated from northern Israel while the UN says over 64,000 have been displaced in southern Lebanon. The fighting has killed more than 150 people in Lebanon, including over 20 civilians (three were journalists), per AFP. At least four civilians and nine soldiers have been killed on the Israeli side, its military says.
Though Israel is calling on the Lebanese government to do something about Hezbollah, it has little power to do so. Beirut currently has no president, no functioning government for over a year, and no money to speak of. Not to mention, Hezbollah has lawmakers in parliament, officials in the ministries, and its armed forces are more powerful than the official Lebanese army.
Prepared to strike: In reference to the border hostilities, Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on Wednesday said that the military needed to be “prepared to strike if required.”The Israeli military is currently at a state of heightened readiness along the northern border.
Israel has invaded Lebanon in the past, including in 2006 after Hezbollah launched a deadly cross-border raid and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah was also founded after Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
We’ll be watching to see if Israel launches another incursion into Lebanon in the coming days.
The war in Gaza has turned the Middle East into a powder keg
The risks of a regional war in the Middle East are rising, as a number of different actors with competing interests and historic rivalries become increasingly entangled amid the war in Gaza.
In the past week alone, President Joe Biden ordered strikes against an Iran-backed militia after several US troops were wounded in an attack in Iraq, the US shot down drones and missiles in the Red Sea launched by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Iran accused Israel of killing a top general in Syria and vowed revenge, and Israel and Hezbollah continued trading fire – prompting Israeli officials to raise the possibility of invading Lebanon.
“We are now at a fork in the road: Either Hezbollah backs off from the Israeli border, in line with UN Resolution 1701, or we will push it away ourselves,” Eylon Levy, an Israeli government spokesperson, said Wednesday.
All of this is part of an escalating tit-for-tat between Iranian proxies, the US, and Israel that is intrinsically linked to the war in Gaza. Iran-backed militias have targeted US troops dozens of times since Oct. 7, while the Houthis have carried out a string of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Iran’s proxies have been clear that their recent attacks on US forces, Israel, and other entities in the region are a direct response to the war in Gaza.
Meanwhile, there’s currently little hope for a halt in the fighting in Gaza, even a temporary one, despite global calls for a cease-fire as the death toll rises and the humanitarian crisis in the territory worsens. Egypt in recent days put forward an ambitious peace proposal, but neither Hamas nor Israel appear eager to embrace a lasting truce. Hamas is unwilling to give up control of Gaza and Israel is determined to destroy the militant group. Beyond Gaza, settler violence is increasing in the occupied West Bank.
Experts on the region warn that the worsening situation is a recipe for disaster.
It’s still “hard to predict when these tensions will get out of control and the region is plunged into an abyss,” Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute, tweeted on Tuesday.
“At some point, one of the many parties that are involved in this conflict will miscalculate,” says Slim.
Iran is protecting itself through restraint in Israel-Hamas war, says Kim Ghattas
Will Iran use Hezbollah fighters to help Hamas in Gaza?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas about the rising tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, as Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters exchange daily rocket fire and thousands of people on both sides flee their homes. Like Hamas, Hezbollah has an eradicationist ideology that calls for the destruction of the state of Israel, a position that could be untenable if the border clashes continue to escalate. Hezbollah is Iran’s most powerful proxy, but Ghattas doesn’t think it’s in Tehran’s interest to use the militant group to further Hamas’s goals.
“For 44 years Iran has claimed that is a supporter of the Palestinian people,” Ghattas explains, “I think Iran has come to realize that its use of the Palestinian cause has bumped up against the limits of what’s possible.”
Ghattas points out that Hezbollah’s primary purpose for Iran is to serve as a deterrent against potential strikes by Israel or the United States. The biggest priority now is to find a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian question. Given the urgency of the situation in Gaza, Iran may be more willing to discuss the possibility of a two-state solution, a position that would have been impossible to imagine even a few years ago.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Will Israel's mistakes with Hezbollah be repeated with Hamas?
Is Israel doomed to repeat the mistakes from its Lebanon invasion in Gaza?
For Lebanese people, it’s difficult not to see the current war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza through the lens of Israeli occupation. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas explains why the history of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon is incredibly relevant today: it led to a two-month siege where the city was cut off from food, water and fuel and killed 17,000 people. Now, a similar situation is playing out in Gaza and Israel is at risk of repeating the mistakes of the past. Ghattas reminds Bremmer that despite the thousands of civilian casualties, Israel failed to accomplish its strategic goals during the Lebanon invasion and is at risk of the same in Gaza.
“They said they wanted to eradicate Hezbollah,” Ghattas warns, “And yet, here we are. Hezbollah is still incredibly strong, even stronger than it was.”
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Could clashes with Hezbollah on the Lebanon border lead to a wider war in the Middle East?
How likely is it that the Israel-Hamas war escalates throughout the Middle East? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas for the on-the-ground perspective from across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. With clashes between Israeli defense forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, increasing on the border and Houthi rebels attacking commercial cargo ships in the Red Sea, tensions in the region are extremely high. Lebanon has a long history of Israeli invasion, which has a huge impact on how people there view the events in Gaza, where over 18,000 people have been killed since October 7th.
“In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon, an invasion that lasted over two months with a siege of Beirut” Ghattas explains, “We forget, but that was a devastating moment for Lebanon and that’s something the Israelis need to think about today as they pound Gaza.”
Bremmer and Ghattas unpack Lebanon’s history with Israel and how the 1982 invasion led to the formation of Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which holds a lot of power in the country and is even stronger today with around 150,000 missiles and heavy-duty weapons. Like many Lebanese people, Ghattas thinks an Israeli strike against Lebanon is a realistic possibility if IDF-Hezbollah border skirmishes escalate. To prevent that from happening, the Palestinian question will need to be addressed through diplomacy. There’s a pragmatism about what will need to be done to end the war, she emphasizes, but everyone will need to come to the table and make concessions, and that includes the Israelis.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Ian Explains: How Hezbollah became so powerful in Lebanon
Tensions on Israel's northern border with Lebanon are heating up amid daily exchanges of rocket fire between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters. Fears are growing that Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza could spread to a broader regional conflict because Hezbollah is Iran's most powerful proxy force. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer unpacks Hezbollah's role within Lebanon, its history of fighting Israel in the south, and how Iran uses the militant group to further its interests in the region.
The potential for an all-out conflict between Hezbollah and Israel would be absolutely devastating for Lebanon, which is already reeling from an economic collapse, a refugee crisis from the Syrian civil war, the deadly 2020 Port of Beirut explosion, and massive currency devaluation. Despite Iran and Israel's signals they don't want to see the Palestine conflict escalate throughout the region, proxy groups like Hezbollah are a way to engage indirectly. One faulty rocket or misinterpreted message could mean the simmering tensions in south Lebanon boil over into a second front.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Hard Numbers: Pakistan plants mangroves, Hezbollah-Israel clashes deepen, Bidenomics goes bust, Liberians decide a runoff, Italy recaptures king of the jungle
142 million: A Pakistani project to revive mangrove forests in the Indus River Delta could absorb as much as 142 million tons of carbon dioxide over the next 60 years. Mangroves not only prevent erosion, they also sequester huge amounts of greenhouse gasses. But the project has stirred controversy, as it is backed by a company that is promoting it to sell carbon credits to polluting companies.
2: Israeli airstrikes on Monday killed two people in southern Lebanon, on the same day an Israeli electric worker died of wounds suffered in an earlier missile strike by Hezbollah in northern Israel. In the weeks since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, cross-border clashes between Hezbollah and Israel have surged to their deadliest levels since the two fought a monthlong war in 2006, raising fears of a wider regional war. Who are Hezbollah? Read our explainer here.
14: Well, last week’s midterm elections may have gone better than expected for Democrats, but their main problem remains: The American people just don’t think Joe Biden has been a great president. A new FT poll shows just 14% of registered voters say they are better off today than they were when he took office. The president has struggled to convince voters that Bidenomics is really helping the middle class — with Americans pointing to persistently high inflation as their biggest concern.
56: Speaking of discontent with incumbents … as Liberia heads into what will likely be an extremely close presidential election runoff, a new Gallup Poll shows 56% of Liberians believe their standard of living is getting worse, and 3 out of 4 say they have had trouble securing enough food at least once over the past year. The vote Tuesday pits incumbent George Weah, a former soccer star, against former veep Joseph Boakai. Weah defeated Boakai in the first round last month by less than half a percentage point.
8: To wish someone good luck in Italian, you’d say in bocca al lupo! — which means “into the wolf’s mouth!” But what should you say to authorities tracking an escaped circus lion in a suburb of Rome? Eight-year-old Kimba enjoyed a leisurely stroll around the seaside streets of Ladispoli on Saturday before he was captured in a massive operation involving local and national police.