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Smoke rises from a burning building in North Gaza, as seen from the Israel-Gaza border, March 23, 2025.
Israel ramps up military offensives as Bibi battles the courts
Israel stepped up its attacks against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon this weekend. The Israeli military ordered the evacuation of Rafah and confirmed the killing of a Hamas leader on Sunday, while the Israeli cabinet approved a proposal to create a directorate to advance the “voluntary departure” of Palestinians from Gaza. In Lebanon, Israel carried out airstrikes in retaliation for rockets fired into Israel. The strikes killed seven people, including a child, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, and prompted fears of a “new war” in the region.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s biggest fight might be internal. Last week, he announced the firing of Shin Bet security head Ronen Bar over alleged failures to prevent the Oct. 7 attacks in 2023. Bar had been investigating Netanyahu’s office for allegations of corruption.
On Friday, the Israeli courts stayed Bar’s dismissal pending further hearings. Now, the Israeli prime minister is attempting to remove Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who vocally opposed the dismissal of Bar and has clashed with Netanyahu over his proposed overhaul of the judicial system, an issue which has Israelis taking to the streets regularly to protest his attempts to expand executive power.
On Sunday, the Israeli cabinet unanimously passed a no-confidence motion against Baharav-Miara for “ongoing substantial differences of opinion between the government and the attorney general, which prevents effective collaboration.” The issue of her removal will now go to a committee expected to be stacked with Netanyahu loyalists, whose decision can then be appealed to the Supreme Court.
That process could take weeks and set up a showdown between the executive and judicial branches of government. Opposition leader Yair Lapid warned that if Netanyahu defies the courts, Israel “will no longer [be] a democracy” – and that citizens may stop paying taxes in protest.Syrian troops sit atop a tank as they head toward the Syrian-Lebanese border following clashes with Lebanese soldiers and armed groups, in Qusayr, Syria, March 17, 2025.
Hezbollah takes on Syria’s new army
Fighting erupted across the border that separates Syria and Lebanon over the weekend. The new government in Syria claims the militant group Hezbollah triggered this violence by crossing into Syrian territory on Saturday, kidnapping three Syrian soldiers, and then executing them inside Lebanon. Hezbollah denies the allegation, and Lebanon’s state media blames the killing on local clans and militias. The two sides agreed to halt the fighting late Monday night.
The Syrian government and Hezbollah have historically acted as allies, but two important changes have occurred. First, Israel has pounded Hezbollah positions inside Lebanon in recent months, badly weakening the group and killing most of its leadership. Second, the current Syrian regime is composed of fighters who defeated the government of Bashar Assad, which had been Hezbollah’s reliable regional partner. Assad now lives in Moscow under Russian President Vladimir Putin’s protection.
Hezbollah has good reason for frustration. In the past, when its fighters needed more weapons and materiel, Iran provided them by sending reinforcements across Syrian territory. The new Syrian government has severed that channel. The Lebanese and Syrian armies say they have increased cross-border communication to restore calm, though Hezbollah representatives remain defiant.
An Israeli soldier stands next to a gate on a road near the Israel-Lebanon border, in Israel, on March 12, 2025.
Israel and Lebanon are set for border talks
Israel and Lebanon have agreed to start talks “as soon as possible” on their disputed land border nearly four months after a ceasefire paused the most recent war between the two countries.
The Netanyahu and Trump administrations announced on Tuesday that Israel, Lebanon, France, and the US would establish working groups to negotiate the Israel-Lebanon border, the presence of Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, and the release of Lebanese detainees held in Israel.
Israel freed five Lebanese prisoners this week who had been captured during last year’s war in what Jerusalem called “a gesture” to the newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.
The state of affairs: IDF troops control five points in southern Lebanon where Israel says Hezbollah still poses a threat to Israelis in the northern part of the Jewish state. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has accused Israel of violating the November ceasefire by failing to withdraw its troops and launching sporadic attacks. Between the Nov. 27 ceasefire and mid-January, the data collection group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project recorded hundreds of air strikes, shellings, and infrastructure demolitions by Israel.
The extent of the talks remains unclear. A senior Israeli official told the Times of Israel that the aim of the negotiations is “to reach normalization” with Lebanon. But a US official told Fox News the goal of mutual recognition and “normalization” of ties was “overblown” and risked stalling progress on agreeing to a set border between the two Levantine nations. The Lebanese government denied claims that the talks could lead to a permanent normalization.Residents of south Lebanon, who were displaced during the war, tried to return to their villages still occupied by Israel despite the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire implementation period. These Lebanese Muslim Shiite women inspect their destroyed house in the southern Lebanese border village of Ayta ash-Shaab after returning to their devastated hamlet.
Refugee returns begin after Trump suggests Gaza exodus
Hostilities continued on Sunday in southern Lebanon, where more than 22 Lebanese civilians were killed and over 124 wounded by Israeli forces, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Officials say that displaced residents were attempting to return home in defiance of military orders and that the Israeli military was “procrastinating” on withdrawing from the area, despite a deadline for them to do so having passed on Sunday.
Israel had also stopped thousands of Palestinians from returning to Gaza after accusing Hamas of changing the order of hostages released this week, in violation of the parties’ ceasefire agreement. Civilian Arbel Yehoud was supposed to have been freed before the four IDF soldiers were released on Saturday. But an agreement was reached early Monday to release Yehoud and two other hostages before Friday, ending the delay. In turn, Israel opened routes into north Gaza, allowing some 200,000 Palestinians to begin returning home. But they are returning to a world of destruction – nearly three-quarters of the buildings are destroyed or badly damaged in Gaza City alone.
Where should Gazans go during the rebuild? President Donald Trump’s suggestion Saturday that Palestinian refugees be transferred to Jordan and Egypt to “clean out” the territory while it undergoes reconstruction has been met with a hard “no” from Amman. On Sunday, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said his country’s rejection of any displacement of Palestinians is “firm and unwavering.” Hamas officials similarly refused the idea while Cairo has yet to comment. At the same time, Trump also announced that the US will resume shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, which had been halted under the administration of President Joe Biden..
Gaza ceasefire likely as Biden and Trump both push
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?
We've heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we've heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump's envoys and Biden's envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he's ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.
What do I make of a potential sale of TikTok to Elon Musk?
Well, it's just been announced that the Chinese are considering it. I always thought that it was more likely than not that if the Supreme Court were to uphold a ban that the Chinese would probably allow a sale to go through. Though they were going to say they were never going to until the last moment because why give up leverage when you don't necessarily have to? So their historic unwillingness doesn't mean to me that they're actually unwilling. To the extent that there is a deal and it goes to Elon, he becomes more powerful, and he also is seen by the Chinese as owing them one. So would he facilitate an improved, a more stable relationship between the US and China? It's an early indication that he could play a role. He hasn't said anything on the China front yet, but certainly you would expect that he would meet with the high-level envoy that's going to the inauguration that Xi Jinping was invited to on the 20th. That's what we should watch in the next week. Okay, that's it for that one.
What does Lebanon's new president mean for Hezbollah?
Weaker Hezbollah, but so much is going to be determined on what Israel decides to do on the ground in the south of Lebanon. Are they staying there for a longer period of time? We've heard news of late that they intend to maintain that occupation in a longer than just couple of weeks, couple of months environment, which makes it harder to keep Hezbollah from starting fighting again. On balance, I think this ceasefire is looking a little shakier right now, even with the new Lebanese president than it had a few weeks ago. We'll see. But if it does break down, the level of fighting won't be what it was a few months ago because Hezbollah doesn't have that capacity and the Iranians can't restock their weapons because Assad has fallen in Syria.
Lebanon's army chief Joseph Aoun walks past guards at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon, on Jan. 9, 2025.
Who is Joseph Aoun, the new president of Lebanon?
For the first time in two years, Lebanon has a president. It took two rounds of voting, but in the end, the country’s parliament tapped army chief Joseph Aoun.
Who is he? The 60-year-old career soldier has headed the army since 2017. He shrewdly kept his troops out of the recent and devastating 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah, the country’s most powerful armed group.
Aoun is a Maronite Christian, a requirement for the presidency in the delicate power-sharing arrangement between Lebanon’s Christian, Sunni, and Shia communities.
Among the candidates vying for the job, Aoun enjoyed strong support from the US and from Saudi Arabia, two key external power brokers.
His selection suggests Hezbollah, badly weakened by the war with Israel and unable to win support for its own preferred candidate, has lost some of its clout.
A tough job. With Lebanon mired in the worst economic crisis in its history, Aoun must name a prime minister capable of carrying out the difficult reforms that are necessary to unlock funding from external donors and creditors. He must also oversee and work to extend the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which expires on Jan. 27.
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025.
Lebanon tries, yet again, to elect a president
Lebanon’s fractious parliament will try on Thursday to do something it has failed at a dozen times over the past two years: elect a president.
How it works: In Lebanon, parliament chooses the president. And by power-sharing tradition, the post is held by a Christian – the Prime Minister is Sunni, and the speaker of parliament is Shia.
The leading candidates: Army commander Joseph Aoun, former Finance Minister Jihad Azour, and state security boss Elias al-Baysari.
The backdrop: recent years have been brutal for Lebanon, crippled by economic crisis and ravaged by Israel’s pummeling of Hezbollah, long the most powerful military and political force in the country. The collapse of the meddlesome Assad regime in Syria adds to the sense of both uncertainty and possibility.
“The election provides a good opportunity to gauge Hezbollah’s power,” says Hani Sabra, founder of Alef Advisory, a region-focused consultancy. The group has repeatedly failed to get its own candidates into the post but could still block figures it doesn’t like.
The stakes: Lebanon badly needs foreign support to rebuild. But the US and other key foreign donors have conditioned aid on the election of a president and the formation of a stable government to replace the rickety caretaker committee that is currently in power. In addition, Sabra says, that would boost chances of renewing the 60-day Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which expires on Jan. 26.
After twelve failed attempts, Lebanon really needs a baker’s dozen to be the charm.
Israeli strikes put ancient Roman ruins of Baalbek at risk
Israeli airstrikes targeting Baalbek, Lebanon, threaten some of the best-preserved ancient Roman ruins anywhere in the world. The temples of Bacchus and Jupiter, which are designated UNESCO World Heritage sites, have stood in Baalbek for over two millennia. The city is located in a region of eastern Lebanon dominated by Hezbollah, so it's become a critical target amid Israel’s offensive.
In November, an airstrike hit a parking lot just meters from the temples, destroying other buildings on the site and covering the ruins in dust and debris. Archaeological experts worry that if the tentative ceasefire in Lebanon doesn’t hold, an important piece of the world’s cultural heritage is at risk of disappearing completely. Fin DePencier was on the ground in Baalbek, Lebanon for GZERO Reports to survey the damage and hear from locals, who see the site as a source of pride in a country torn apart by sectarian division.
“The owner of these sites is not Lebanon,” says local tour guide Fahmi Sharif, “but all humanity”
Watch full episode: Syria after Assad.
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