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Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024.
What Assad’s fall means for Syria, the Middle East, Moscow and Washington
Syria’s government has fallen, precipitating change across the region and beyond. How did things get here, and where could they go?
Syria under Assad
The Syrian civil war, sparked by the Arab Spring of 2011, began as protests against the dictatorship of Bashar Assad, who took over from his father after Hafez Assad died in 2000. Known as “the Butcher of Damascus,” Bashar Assad killed and imprisoned thousands of political opponents and minority populations withthe support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The conflict killed over500,000 Syrians and displaced half the country’s population of 26 million people, prompting a refugee exodus to neighboring Turkey as well as Europe, the USA, and Canada.
Over the weekend, Assad fled with his family and was granted asylum in Moscow.
New rebel leadership
In just two weeks, insurgents seized control of major Syrian cities including Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and the capital, Damascus, and officially toppled Assad’s regime on Saturday. The main rebel force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a former al-Qaida militant whoin the last decade has transformed from radical jihadist to ostensible pragmatist. Skeptics question the authenticity of his change of heart, however, andHTS is still designated as a terrorist group by many countries, including the United States.
Regional impacts
Iran: The collapse of Assad’s regime deals a significant blow to Iran’s "Axis of Resistance,"severing a crucial conduit for arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and diminishing Tehran's influence in the region. This leaves it more vulnerable to anydirect conflict with Israel.
Lebanon: US envoy Amos Hochstein believes the Syrian war’s outcomewill have a “massive impact” on Lebanon as it reduces Iran’s ability to send weapons to Hezbollah. Syria’s instability could also worsen Lebanon’s fragile economic state.
Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuattributed Assad’s fall to Israel’s “forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran.” Israel has nonethelessdeployed forces into the Golan Heights to protect its border andstruck military targets inside Syria to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of hostile forces including Hezbollah.
Turkey: Turkey has backed rebel forces throughout Syria’s 13-year war as part of its geopolitical rivalry with Iran, and the outcome is seen as a win for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Celebrations have erupted among Syrians in Turkey over Assad’s fall, and it is estimated that up to 50% of refugees theremay choose to return.
Superpower Stressors
Russia: Since the war began, Vladimir Putin has provided political support, military aid, and direct military intervention. This loss weakens Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, including jeopardizing control over its Syrian air base in Hmeimim and naval air base in Tartus.
Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine are also blamed forweakening Moscow’s ability to support Assad’s regime. Following his ouster, US President-elect Donald Trumpcalled on Moscow for “an immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine.
The United States: The US has 900 troops in eastern Syria fighting against the re-establishment of the Islamic State and will remain there “to ensure [the group’s] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of ISIS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,"according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro. Under President Barack Obama, the US authorized thousands of airstrikes on Syria and Iraq starting in 2014 as part ofOperation Inherent Resolve, part of an international effort to destroy the Islamic State.
This time around, US President-elect Donald Trumpposted to Truth Social on Saturday that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO” with the conflict in Syria. But Washington doesn’t appear to be listening: On Sunday, the US launched dozens of precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives based in Central Syria, according to US Central Command.
And at a press conference on Sunday, US President Joe Biden not only took credit for helping topple the Assad regime through its sanctions against Syria and support for Israel’s efforts against Hezbollah, but he said the US will support Syria's neighbors, ensure stability in eastern Syria, protect against the Islamic State, and engage in a UN-led process to transition from Assad to an independent, sovereign Syria with a new constitution.
However, Washington will also “remain vigilant,” Biden added, noting that while the rebel groups that took down Assad “are saying the right things now,” the US “will assess not just their words but their actions.”
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
FILE PHOTO: Israel's Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon gives a statement to the press at the Kirya Army base in Tel Aviv, Israel May 20, 2016.
Former Israeli defense minister accuses government of war crimes; UNWRA pauses aid
Former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon on Sunday accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Yaalon, who served under Netanyahu from 2013-16, but has criticized him ever since, claimed that far-right members of the cabinet aim to displace Palestinians in northern Gaza to re-establish Jewish settlements. He alsotold the Reshet Bet radio station that IDF commanders reached out to him “expressing fear about what’s happening there.”
Yaalon’s statements were quickly condemned by Netanyahu allies as “slanderous lies.” But they come at a sensitive time, following the International Criminal Court’s recentissuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Gallant called Yaalon’s statements “a lie that aids our enemy and harms Israel,”and said the Israeli military “acted according to the highest standards that can be applied in the complex and difficult war that was imposed on us.”
UNWRA suspends aid. Meanwhile, the United Nations Relief and Works Agencysuspended humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza on Sunday after armed gangs seized food supplies twice in recent weeks. “This difficult decision comes at a time when hunger is rapidly deepening,”said UNWRA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, calling on Israel to ensure the safety of aid workers and supplies and criticizing its “restrictive policies.” In response, Israeli officials denied hindering humanitarian relief andblamed delays on the UN.US President Joe Biden delivers remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington after Israel and Lebanon accepted a ceasefire deal on Nov. 26, 2024.
Israel agrees to Lebanon ceasefire, Biden confirms
The Israeli Security Cabinet has approved a ceasefire for Lebanon, President Joe Bidenannounced on Tuesday, welcoming the opportunity to start reestablishing peace in the Middle East. “Under the deal reached today, effective at 4 a.m. tomorrow local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end,” Biden said.
While earlier reports suggested the US-brokered agreement would involve a 60-day transition period to pave the way toward a more lasting peace, Biden emphasized that the truce is meant to be permanent. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — I emphasize, will not be allowed — to threaten the security of Israel again,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged approval of the deal, and it was passed “with a majority of 10 ministers in favor and one opposed,” his office said just before Biden announced the news.
The Israeli leader said it was the right time for a ceasefire because it would isolate Hamas, give Israel’s military space to regroup and resupply, and allow the Jewish state to focus more on the threat from Iran.
In the hours leading up to Netanyahu’s announcement on Tuesday, Israel continued to pound Lebanon with airstrikes. But 13 months of fighting ended early Wednesday as the ceasefire took hold, and thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians have begun returning to their homes in the South.
The US pushed hard for the agreement and while the Biden administration is taking credit, the deal could provide a boost for Donald Trump as he enters the White House in January. Trump — who has a close relationship with Bibi — has promised to bring peace to the region, and his administration will soon be on deck with efforts for a more permanent peace between Israel and Hezbollah, and perhaps a resolution for Gaza and the remaining hostages.
In the meantime, we’ll be watching to see if the truce holds as the region remains on edge with the war in Gaza raging on amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.
Smoke billows over Beirut's southern suburbs after an Israeli strike, amid hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon, November 25, 2024.
Israeli cabinet set to vote on Lebanon cease-fire deal
There are growing signs that a truce between Israel and Hezbollah – which the US has been pushing hard for – could be imminent. The Israeli cabinet is reportedly set to vote on a cease-fire deal Tuesday, and a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled it’s likely to be accepted.
The deal would involve a 60-day halt to fighting to pave the way for a lasting truce, during which Israeli troops would withdraw from southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah would move heavy weapons north of the Litani River, roughly 18 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border. The area would then be policed by Lebanese soldiers and UN peacekeepers, with a five-country committee — including the US — set to keep an eye on compliance with the terms of the truce.
We’ll be watching for more on the deal — and whether it gets across the finish line as both sides in the fight continue to trade fire. And regardless of whether an agreement is reached, the war in Gaza is raging on with no end in sight. The Gaza conflict fueled the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, which began after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on the Jewish state last year, and has stoked tensions across the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony for military combat officers at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
US says Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire ‘within our grasp’
The Israeli military has stepped up strikes in Beirut in recent days, as Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at northern Israel. Israel’s offensive in Lebanon has displaced roughly 1.2 million people, inflaming sectarian tensions and fueling fears of an internal conflict.
Despite the ongoing fighting, a top US envoy on Tuesday said that a truce between Israel and Hezbollah is “within our grasp.” The optimistic assessment from the envoy, Amos Hochstein, came as he visited Beirut and a day after Lebanon and Hezbollah reportedly agreed to a US proposal for a cease-fire.
The proposal would see Israel and Hezbollah withdraw forces from a UN buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and the area would be policed by UN peacekeepers and Lebanese troops.
Though Israel has not shown any signs of slowing down operations in Lebanon, a recent report indicated the Jewish state was interested in moving forward with a cease-fire in the not-too-distant future to deliver an early foreign policy “gift” for President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump, who has a close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has promised to bring peace to the Middle East.
But Netanyahu says that even if there is a cease-fire in Lebanon, Israel will still need to operate against Hezbollah to prevent it from regaining strength — a position that could prove to be a sticking point as the US works to get a deal across the finish line.
We’ll be watching to see if US efforts to secure a truce pay off in the days ahead, and what it will mean for Trump as he prepares for a second term in the White House.
Rescuers work at a site damaged in the aftermath of an Israeli strike in Sohmor, in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, October 30, 2024.
US pushes for cease-fire as Israel escalates fight against Hezbollah
Senior White House officials are traveling to Israel on Thursday as the Biden administration continues to push for an end to hostilities in the Middle East.
The US is reportedly proposing a 60-day cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group based in Lebanon. Washington hopes that a two-month period will lead to the resurrection of a UN resolution that ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war but was never fully enforced.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahureportedly discussed the prospect of a cease-fire with top officials on Tuesday, suggesting that he’s taking the idea seriously.
But major obstacles remain – namely that Israel is continuing to escalate the fight. On Wednesday, for example, Israel ordered the evacuation of an entire city in eastern Lebanon, a move that Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattasdescribed as “insanity” and a “first since this war started.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Kassem, on Wednesday said the militant group will only accept cease-fire terms it finds acceptable. “If the Israelis decide to stop the aggression, we say that we accept, but according to the conditions that we see as suitable,” Kassem said, implying his side will keep fighting Israel until it’s given favorable truce terms. “We will not beg for a cease-fire,” he added. Kassem, who officially replaced Hassan Nasrallah on Tuesday, has also offered mixed signals on whether Hezbollah will continue to condition a cease-fire agreement on an end to the war in Gaza.
We’ll be watching to see if there are any signs of progress after US officials meet with Netanyahu on Thursday.
Lebanon's Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem speaks during an interview with Reuters in Beirut's suburbs, Lebanon November 22, 2019.
Will Hezbollah’s new leader give peace a chance?
Hezbollah on Tuesday named cleric Naim Kassem, 71, as its new leader. Kassem was a longtime deputy of Hezbollah’s previous leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike last month.
Kassem inherits Nasrallah’s job at a precarious moment for Hezbollah, which has been fighting with Israel since Hamas attacked the Jewish state last October. The conflict escalated when Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon earlier this month.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant responded to Kassem’s appointment by posting his picture to X with the caption, “Temporary appointment. Not for long.”
Mixed signals. Kassem has often been the public face of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, a role that’s increased since Nasrallah’s death.
On Oct. 8, Kassem gave a speech in which he expressed support for a cease-fire in Lebanon, without explicitly linking a truce to an end of the Gaza war — a condition upon which Hezbollah previously insisted. But in another speech on Oct. 15, Kassem signaled Hezbollah wouldn’t agree to a deal that didn’t include an end to Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
In the days ahead, we’ll be watching to see if Kassem takes a clearer position on a cease-fire now that he’s officially the new voice of Hezbollah.