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Members of Lebanon's Hezbollah wave Hezbollah and Lebanese flags during a rally in southern Lebanon marking the ninth anniversary of the end of the 2006 war with Israel, August 14, 2015.
Will Israel invade Lebanon?
Israel is getting fed up with Hezbollah as it continues to exchange cross-border fire with the powerful Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, which has close ties to Hamas. On Thursday, an Israeli government spokesperson urged the international community to speak out now against Hezbollah’s “brazen” actions “instead of later criticizing our decisive response.”
This echoed stark warnings from top Israeli officials about the escalating situation, who’ve signaled that an invasion of southern Lebanon is not off the table. The Israeli military and Hezbollah have regularly traded fire since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.
“If the world and the Lebanese government don’t act in order to prevent the firing on Israel’s northern residents, and to distance Hezbollah from the border, the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] will do it,” Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet and a former defense minister, said Wednesday.
Gantz said time for a diplomatic solution is running out, warning that the next stage in fighting with Hezbollah “will be deep, forceful, and surprising.” His comments come amid growing concerns that the war in Gaza is raising the risks of a regional conflict.
The hostilities with Hezbollah have led to casualties on both sides of the border, and the IDF says 80,000 people have been evacuated from northern Israel while the UN says over 64,000 have been displaced in southern Lebanon. The fighting has killed more than 150 people in Lebanon, including over 20 civilians (three were journalists), per AFP. At least four civilians and nine soldiers have been killed on the Israeli side, its military says.
Though Israel is calling on the Lebanese government to do something about Hezbollah, it has little power to do so. Beirut currently has no president, no functioning government for over a year, and no money to speak of. Not to mention, Hezbollah has lawmakers in parliament, officials in the ministries, and its armed forces are more powerful than the official Lebanese army.
Prepared to strike: In reference to the border hostilities, Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on Wednesday said that the military needed to be “prepared to strike if required.”The Israeli military is currently at a state of heightened readiness along the northern border.
Israel has invaded Lebanon in the past, including in 2006 after Hezbollah launched a deadly cross-border raid and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah was also founded after Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
We’ll be watching to see if Israel launches another incursion into Lebanon in the coming days.
An Israeli tank fires towards Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, at the Israel-Gaza border, in southern Israel, December 27, 2023.
The war in Gaza has turned the Middle East into a powder keg
The risks of a regional war in the Middle East are rising, as a number of different actors with competing interests and historic rivalries become increasingly entangled amid the war in Gaza.
In the past week alone, President Joe Biden ordered strikes against an Iran-backed militia after several US troops were wounded in an attack in Iraq, the US shot down drones and missiles in the Red Sea launched by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Iran accused Israel of killing a top general in Syria and vowed revenge, and Israel and Hezbollah continued trading fire – prompting Israeli officials to raise the possibility of invading Lebanon.
“We are now at a fork in the road: Either Hezbollah backs off from the Israeli border, in line with UN Resolution 1701, or we will push it away ourselves,” Eylon Levy, an Israeli government spokesperson, said Wednesday.
All of this is part of an escalating tit-for-tat between Iranian proxies, the US, and Israel that is intrinsically linked to the war in Gaza. Iran-backed militias have targeted US troops dozens of times since Oct. 7, while the Houthis have carried out a string of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Iran’s proxies have been clear that their recent attacks on US forces, Israel, and other entities in the region are a direct response to the war in Gaza.
Meanwhile, there’s currently little hope for a halt in the fighting in Gaza, even a temporary one, despite global calls for a cease-fire as the death toll rises and the humanitarian crisis in the territory worsens. Egypt in recent days put forward an ambitious peace proposal, but neither Hamas nor Israel appear eager to embrace a lasting truce. Hamas is unwilling to give up control of Gaza and Israel is determined to destroy the militant group. Beyond Gaza, settler violence is increasing in the occupied West Bank.
Experts on the region warn that the worsening situation is a recipe for disaster.
It’s still “hard to predict when these tensions will get out of control and the region is plunged into an abyss,” Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute, tweeted on Tuesday.
“At some point, one of the many parties that are involved in this conflict will miscalculate,” says Slim.
Ian Explains: 2023: A good year for warmongers
2023 was a rough year for people who want peace in the world, whether it was the war in Ukraine, Gaza, or the one Americans seem to be fighting against each other.
Looking ahead to 2024, one phrase may be coming back to you: The wheels are coming off.
As Ian Bremmer explains, for years, he has been warning that our GZERO world – characterized by a lack of global leadership and the geopolitical conflict that grows as a consequence – was gathering speed. That acceleration is only increasing today while channels of international cooperation – multinational institutions, traditional alliances, and global supply chains – are losing their ability to absorb shock.
Today, when we speak of war, we've got to specify which war we're talking about. Is it the war in Ukraine that's remaking the security architecture of Europe, or is it the war in Gaza that's destabilizing the Middle East and threatening global religious conflict? Or is it the war that the Americans are fighting amongst themselves?
Look, we don’t mean to be all grinchy. There’s plenty of good news to chase the bad. US-China relations are relatively stable compared to years past. India, for all its shortcomings, is a politically stable democracy, and it’s emerging as a crucial bridge between the Global South on one side and the US, Japan, and Europe on the other. The EU is stronger than ever, and Mexico is poised to enter a year of political stability.
It’s safe to say it’ll be a tough year ahead. Stay with GZERO and Ian Bremmer; we'll keep trying to make sense of it all.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Overlooked stories in 2023
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Overlooked stories in 2023
In 2023, a war in Ukraine got worse and new one erupted in Gaza, but there also were many other stories that didn't capture the world's attention.
2023 has been a rough one, hasn't it? From a war in Ukraine that lurched into its third year with mere kilometers of territory traded on the battlefield to a new chapter in an old conflict in Gaza with no end in sight, it's enough to make a person want to dig a bunker in the backyard. Or at least get into yoga...
In this episode, Ian Bremmer takes stock of the state of the world in 2023. Be warned: no sugar shall be coating said thoughts! Then, we'll bring you a fascinating conversation with sociologist Zeynep Tufekci about the one thing everyone is overlooking in the AI conversation. Hint: it has nothing to do with Elon Musk (thank goodness!).
And speaking of being overlooked, how much have you heard about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the past year? Well, thousands of Armenians who fled that deadly territorial dispute are experiencing a new host of challenges in the country’s capital thanks to thousands of…you guessed it…fleeing Russians.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Iran is protecting itself through restraint in Israel-Hamas war, says Kim Ghattas
Will Iran use Hezbollah fighters to help Hamas in Gaza?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas about the rising tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, as Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah fighters exchange daily rocket fire and thousands of people on both sides flee their homes. Like Hamas, Hezbollah has an eradicationist ideology that calls for the destruction of the state of Israel, a position that could be untenable if the border clashes continue to escalate. Hezbollah is Iran’s most powerful proxy, but Ghattas doesn’t think it’s in Tehran’s interest to use the militant group to further Hamas’s goals.
“For 44 years Iran has claimed that is a supporter of the Palestinian people,” Ghattas explains, “I think Iran has come to realize that its use of the Palestinian cause has bumped up against the limits of what’s possible.”
Ghattas points out that Hezbollah’s primary purpose for Iran is to serve as a deterrent against potential strikes by Israel or the United States. The biggest priority now is to find a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian question. Given the urgency of the situation in Gaza, Iran may be more willing to discuss the possibility of a two-state solution, a position that would have been impossible to imagine even a few years ago.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Will Israel's mistakes with Hezbollah be repeated with Hamas?
Is Israel doomed to repeat the mistakes from its Lebanon invasion in Gaza?
For Lebanese people, it’s difficult not to see the current war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza through the lens of Israeli occupation. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas explains why the history of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon is incredibly relevant today: it led to a two-month siege where the city was cut off from food, water and fuel and killed 17,000 people. Now, a similar situation is playing out in Gaza and Israel is at risk of repeating the mistakes of the past. Ghattas reminds Bremmer that despite the thousands of civilian casualties, Israel failed to accomplish its strategic goals during the Lebanon invasion and is at risk of the same in Gaza.
“They said they wanted to eradicate Hezbollah,” Ghattas warns, “And yet, here we are. Hezbollah is still incredibly strong, even stronger than it was.”
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah: Fears of escalation grow
Could clashes with Hezbollah on the Lebanon border lead to a wider war in the Middle East?
How likely is it that the Israel-Hamas war escalates throughout the Middle East? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas for the on-the-ground perspective from across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. With clashes between Israeli defense forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, increasing on the border and Houthi rebels attacking commercial cargo ships in the Red Sea, tensions in the region are extremely high. Lebanon has a long history of Israeli invasion, which has a huge impact on how people there view the events in Gaza, where over 18,000 people have been killed since October 7th.
“In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon, an invasion that lasted over two months with a siege of Beirut” Ghattas explains, “We forget, but that was a devastating moment for Lebanon and that’s something the Israelis need to think about today as they pound Gaza.”
Bremmer and Ghattas unpack Lebanon’s history with Israel and how the 1982 invasion led to the formation of Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which holds a lot of power in the country and is even stronger today with around 150,000 missiles and heavy-duty weapons. Like many Lebanese people, Ghattas thinks an Israeli strike against Lebanon is a realistic possibility if IDF-Hezbollah border skirmishes escalate. To prevent that from happening, the Palestinian question will need to be addressed through diplomacy. There’s a pragmatism about what will need to be done to end the war, she emphasizes, but everyone will need to come to the table and make concessions, and that includes the Israelis.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Israel-Hamas war set to expand & directly involve US ›
- Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Biden's second foreign policy crisis ›
- Israel-Hamas War: The race to avert escalation in the Middle East ›
- Top stories of 2023: GZERO World with Ian Bremmer - GZERO Media ›
- Israel-Hamas war: West Bank raid won't derail cease-fire - GZERO Media ›
- Yuval Noah Harari on the perils of viewing Israel-Palestine through the 'victimhood' context - GZERO Media ›
Will Israel's war spread north? The view from Lebanon with Kim Ghattas
Listen: How likely is it that the Israel-Hamas war spreads into a wider conflict in the Middle East? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Beirut-based journalist and analyst Kim Ghattas for the on-the-ground perspective from across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
Clashes between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, have been increasing on the border since the October 7th Hamas attacks, and tensions in the region are extremely high. There’s a lot of anxiety in Lebanon right now about the potential for an Israeli strike, Ghattas explains, because of its history of Israeli invasion and the strength of Hezbollah, which has some 150,000 rockets and heavy duty weapons. Given that Lebanon is a country already reeling from economic collapse, a refugee crisis from Syria, a deadly 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut, and a massive currency devaluation, the consequences of war spreading across the Israeli border would be devastating for the country. Can diplomacy help lower tensions in the Middle East before simmering tensions boil over?
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