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Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces.
Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action
In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.
Aren’t the Kurds against the Assad regime, too? Yes, but that’s not the beef. HTS works with the Turkish proxies and relies on Ankara for political support in high-level negotiations to end the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is angling for an advantageous position on the war’s aftermath and said his “greatest wish” was “for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end.”
For Turkey, that means both weakening Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and cutting the Kurds down to size, as it has long-standing problems with Kurdish separatists at home.
Don’t forget, Turkey is also a US ally — a NATO member, in fact — so urging its proxies to fight US proxies in a theatre where Russian forces also actively operate causes headaches in Washington. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas of Aleppo on Monday, not far from where Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 that strayed over the border in 2015. Quite an explosive position for a lame-duck US president.
Speaking of proxies… Iran-backed militias crossed into Syria from Iraq to help shore up Assad’s counterattack as well. Assad will be glad for that help as the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, once a major pillar of support for Assad’s regime, said Monday it would not deploy fighters to Syria right now. The group is still regrouping after getting mauled by Israel and is warily watching as last week’s ceasefire in that conflict appears to be breaking down already.
Where is the US in all this? Washington had reportedly held talks before the Aleppo offensive with the UAE about lifting sanctions on Syria in exchange for Assad distancing himself from Iran and Russia. That seems unlikely now that Assad’s back is against the wall and he needs all the help he can get. Beyond milquetoast calls for de-escalation, Washington has thus far kept its cards close to its vest.
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
FILE PHOTO: Israel's Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon gives a statement to the press at the Kirya Army base in Tel Aviv, Israel May 20, 2016.
Former Israeli defense minister accuses government of war crimes; UNWRA pauses aid
Former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon on Sunday accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Yaalon, who served under Netanyahu from 2013-16, but has criticized him ever since, claimed that far-right members of the cabinet aim to displace Palestinians in northern Gaza to re-establish Jewish settlements. He alsotold the Reshet Bet radio station that IDF commanders reached out to him “expressing fear about what’s happening there.”
Yaalon’s statements were quickly condemned by Netanyahu allies as “slanderous lies.” But they come at a sensitive time, following the International Criminal Court’s recentissuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defense chief Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Gallant called Yaalon’s statements “a lie that aids our enemy and harms Israel,”and said the Israeli military “acted according to the highest standards that can be applied in the complex and difficult war that was imposed on us.”
UNWRA suspends aid. Meanwhile, the United Nations Relief and Works Agencysuspended humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza on Sunday after armed gangs seized food supplies twice in recent weeks. “This difficult decision comes at a time when hunger is rapidly deepening,”said UNWRA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini, calling on Israel to ensure the safety of aid workers and supplies and criticizing its “restrictive policies.” In response, Israeli officials denied hindering humanitarian relief andblamed delays on the UN.US President Joe Biden delivers remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington after Israel and Lebanon accepted a ceasefire deal on Nov. 26, 2024.
Israel agrees to Lebanon ceasefire, Biden confirms
The Israeli Security Cabinet has approved a ceasefire for Lebanon, President Joe Bidenannounced on Tuesday, welcoming the opportunity to start reestablishing peace in the Middle East. “Under the deal reached today, effective at 4 a.m. tomorrow local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end,” Biden said.
While earlier reports suggested the US-brokered agreement would involve a 60-day transition period to pave the way toward a more lasting peace, Biden emphasized that the truce is meant to be permanent. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — I emphasize, will not be allowed — to threaten the security of Israel again,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged approval of the deal, and it was passed “with a majority of 10 ministers in favor and one opposed,” his office said just before Biden announced the news.
The Israeli leader said it was the right time for a ceasefire because it would isolate Hamas, give Israel’s military space to regroup and resupply, and allow the Jewish state to focus more on the threat from Iran.
In the hours leading up to Netanyahu’s announcement on Tuesday, Israel continued to pound Lebanon with airstrikes. But 13 months of fighting ended early Wednesday as the ceasefire took hold, and thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians have begun returning to their homes in the South.
The US pushed hard for the agreement and while the Biden administration is taking credit, the deal could provide a boost for Donald Trump as he enters the White House in January. Trump — who has a close relationship with Bibi — has promised to bring peace to the region, and his administration will soon be on deck with efforts for a more permanent peace between Israel and Hezbollah, and perhaps a resolution for Gaza and the remaining hostages.
In the meantime, we’ll be watching to see if the truce holds as the region remains on edge with the war in Gaza raging on amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.
Skykline of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on November 21, 2022 .
Will rabbi’s murder in the UAE amplify Iran-Israel tensions?
Israeli authorities condemned the murder of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, an Israeli-Moldovan 28-year-old whose body was discovered Sunday in the United Arab Emirates, as an“antisemitic terrorist attack.” They are investigating potential Iranian involvement, including Uzbek nationals with suspected links to Iran. In response, the Iranian embassy in the UAE said it “categorically rejects the allegations of Iran’s involvement in the murder of this individual.”
The UAE has arrested three suspects but has provided no further details. Should a link to Iran be established, it would likely renew calls for retaliation by Israel, and possibly set off a new cycle of escalation.
Meanwhile, Israeli military operations continue in both Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of a suburb of Gaza City on Sunday after Hamas militants fired rockets at Israel,prompting a new wave of displacements in the enclave. Hamasclaimed late Sunday that a female Israeli hostage had been killed in Israeli operations in northern Gaza, but Israel said it was unable to verify the information.
In Lebanon, an Israeli airstrike targeted an army center, resulting in the death of one soldier and injuries to 18 others. Hezbollah retaliated on Sunday by launching 340 drones and rockets into Israel andclaimed to have also destroyed a total of 11 Israeli tanks in a series of ground battles. Talks over a potential cease-fire with Hezbollah have thus far been fruitless, but the Israeli ambassador to the US said a deal could be reached “within days” on Monday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony for military combat officers at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
US says Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire ‘within our grasp’
The Israeli military has stepped up strikes in Beirut in recent days, as Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at northern Israel. Israel’s offensive in Lebanon has displaced roughly 1.2 million people, inflaming sectarian tensions and fueling fears of an internal conflict.
Despite the ongoing fighting, a top US envoy on Tuesday said that a truce between Israel and Hezbollah is “within our grasp.” The optimistic assessment from the envoy, Amos Hochstein, came as he visited Beirut and a day after Lebanon and Hezbollah reportedly agreed to a US proposal for a cease-fire.
The proposal would see Israel and Hezbollah withdraw forces from a UN buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and the area would be policed by UN peacekeepers and Lebanese troops.
Though Israel has not shown any signs of slowing down operations in Lebanon, a recent report indicated the Jewish state was interested in moving forward with a cease-fire in the not-too-distant future to deliver an early foreign policy “gift” for President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump, who has a close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has promised to bring peace to the Middle East.
But Netanyahu says that even if there is a cease-fire in Lebanon, Israel will still need to operate against Hezbollah to prevent it from regaining strength — a position that could prove to be a sticking point as the US works to get a deal across the finish line.
We’ll be watching to see if US efforts to secure a truce pay off in the days ahead, and what it will mean for Trump as he prepares for a second term in the White House.
Lebanon's Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem speaks during an interview with Reuters in Beirut's suburbs, Lebanon November 22, 2019.
Will Hezbollah’s new leader give peace a chance?
Hezbollah on Tuesday named cleric Naim Kassem, 71, as its new leader. Kassem was a longtime deputy of Hezbollah’s previous leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike last month.
Kassem inherits Nasrallah’s job at a precarious moment for Hezbollah, which has been fighting with Israel since Hamas attacked the Jewish state last October. The conflict escalated when Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon earlier this month.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant responded to Kassem’s appointment by posting his picture to X with the caption, “Temporary appointment. Not for long.”
Mixed signals. Kassem has often been the public face of the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, a role that’s increased since Nasrallah’s death.
On Oct. 8, Kassem gave a speech in which he expressed support for a cease-fire in Lebanon, without explicitly linking a truce to an end of the Gaza war — a condition upon which Hezbollah previously insisted. But in another speech on Oct. 15, Kassem signaled Hezbollah wouldn’t agree to a deal that didn’t include an end to Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
In the days ahead, we’ll be watching to see if Kassem takes a clearer position on a cease-fire now that he’s officially the new voice of Hezbollah.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, August 19, 2024.
Blinken urges Netanyahu to ‘capitalize’ on Hamas leader’s death
The FBI on Tuesday announced it’s investigating a leak of US intelligence documents that offer details on Israel’s potential plans for retaliation against Iran over its missile attack earlier this month. The highly classified documents were shared on an Iran-linked Telegram account.
The leak puts the US in an awkward position as the intelligence pertains to spying on an ally. It’s not uncommon for governments to gather intel on allies, but such activities can still be embarrassing when revealed.
As the Biden administration scrambles to discover how the documents were leaked, it’s also pushing for a cease-fire in the Middle East amid Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is reportedly considering an Egyptian plan for a two-week cease-fire with Hamas, which would see half a dozen hostages exchanged in the process. It’s possible a smaller agreement like this could gain momentum after months of failed international efforts to secure a lasting peace.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Tuesday and urged him to capitalize on the recent death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “by securing the release of all hostages and ending the conflict in Gaza in a way that provides lasting security for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
We’ll be watching to see if the US reveals more about the source of the leak and whether Israel shows any signs of accepting a cease-fire proposal.