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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the state memorial ceremony for the Altalena martyrs at the Nachalat Yitzhak cemetery in Givatayim, Israel, June 18, 2024.
Too late to prevent an Israel-Hezbollah war?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview on Sunday said the “intense phase” of the war in Gaza will soon end while effectively rejecting a US-backed proposal meant to pave the way to a permanent cease-fire. But in an apparent effort to contain the potential fallout from his comments, the Israeli leader reversed course Monday and said he remains committed to the cease-fire plan.
During the Sunday interview, however, Bibi also said the IDF could shift its focus to Lebanon amid an escalating tit-for-tat with Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militant group. “After the end of the intense phase, we will have the possibility to shift some of the power north, and we will do it,” he said.
Thwarting two-front war. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is in Washington this week to meet with US officials for what he called “critical” discussions on Gaza and Lebanon. Gen. Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned Sunday that Iran could swoop in to aid Hezbollah if Israel escalates the fight — and said the US would be limited in its ability to help.
We’ll be watching to see if the US can help prevent a two-front war in the days ahead.
FILE PHOTO: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaks during his meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (not pictured) at the Pentagon in Washington, U.S., March 26, 2024.
Israeli leaders visit Washington amid rising tensions
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant traveled to Washington, DC, this weekend to discuss the final phase of Israel’s offensive in Gaza — and to address growing concern over hostilities with the Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah.
Since Hamas’ attacks of Oct. 7, Hezbollah has ramped up its rocket and drone attacks on Israel, forcing the evacuation of northern border towns. Now, as Israel targets the last Hamas strongholds in Gaza, the concern is that the conflict could shift north to Lebanon.Last Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah posted a video threatening to destroy key Israeli infrastructure with missiles if they are attacked.
The London Sunday Telegraph reported a significant increase in Iranian shipments of rockets to the group via Beirut's Rafic Al Hariri International Airport. “We are prepared for any action in Gaza, Lebanon, and more areas,” Gallant said before meeting US officials this week.
Netanyahu’s DC drama. Meanwhile, the politics are becoming increasingly perilous on Capitol Hill. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to address the US Congress on July 24, and many Democrats are conflicted about whether to attend. After Bibi released a video last week chastising Washington for withholding military aid – the US has only withheld one shipment while providing $12 billion in aid since Oct. 7 – some fear furthernegativity about US support for Israel from Bibi could complicate Biden’s reelection campaign.
Putin's rare North Korea visit will deepen ties
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Putin's rare visit to North Korea strengthen anti-West alignment?
It's deepening the relationship. There's no question. He hasn't been in North Korea in decades. And I mean they call it the Hermit Kingdom. It's completely totalitarian. It's incredibly poor. But they have a massive military and they've been providing an awful lot thousands and thousands of train containers, of weaponry, of ammunition, of artillery. And those containers haven't gone back empty from Russia. And there's been a lot of sense of technology that's been transferred. The interesting thing will be whether or not, this leads to more provocative North Korean behavior vis-à-vis the South and Japan, because they think they can get away with it because they have coverage from Russia. And will they start coordinating diplomatically, in response to the NATO threat, in response to, you know, the way that the war in Ukraine is going? Be interesting to watch. It's not what China wants to see, but that is certainly a piece of what happens when a couple of states considered pariahs and rogues by the West, are developing a real alliance.
Is escalation of war between Israel and Hezbollah inevitable?
Nothing's inevitable. It's looking more likely by the day. I've been very concerned about this second front. I didn't think it was going to open up in the early months because Israel is a small country and they've got a lot of people, a lot of forces that are fighting on the ground in Gaza. But as the war in Gaza, I don't want to say wraps up because I don't think that's going to happen, but at least winds down and becomes less about taking and controlling and rooting out Hamas in across all of the territory, and is less military intensive in terms of troops, then the Israelis can move a lot of those troops up to the north. And I think that is increasingly likely in part, because you have 100,000 Israelis that are evacuated still. And the Israeli leaders say a lot, you know, they got to get them back for the school year. That's September. It's coming up soon. And secondly, because Hezbollah is increasingly engaging in strikes against Israel and most recently, really invasive surveillance drone, you know, intervention, including the port of Haifa. So it's really showing off to the Israelis that we're going to hit you hard. We're going to make this really hurt. They're a hell of a lot more powerful militarily Hezbollah is than Hamas. So if this happens, it's going to be a lot bigger deal in terms of the impact and the casualties.
Will President Biden's new citizenship plan bolster his campaign?
I guess a little bit in the sense that it's an issue that is top two for most voters, inflation and the migration issue. And, you know, he has been taking a harder line on number of migrants coming in. So now he's offering the spouses that don't have citizenship, but their spouses do, you know, are going to have improved treatment. That's a give, especially in a lot of states, where you have lots of those people, and states that he needs those votes. Every vote matters. Is it really gonna help his campaign at the end of the day? This is a tough one. On balance, I think that, Trump does better on this issue in the same way Biden does on abortion.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a cabinet meeting at the Bible Lands Museum in Jerusalem on June 5, 2024.
Does Bibi see a benefit to war with Hezbollah?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday warned that Israel was ready for “very intense action” near its border with Lebanon amid rising tensions with the powerful Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
The question of whether Israel will open up a two-front war by launching an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon has been looming over the region since Hamas attacked on Oct. 7 and the devastating conflict in Gaza began. On Thursday, an Israeli air strike on a UN school packed with hundreds of displaced Palestinians in central Gaza reportedly killed at least 35 people.
For months, Israel and Hamas have routinely traded cross-border fire – often with deadly consequences. Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border have been pushed out of their homes because by hostilities. Hezbollah rocket attacks led to wildfires in northern Israel this week.
Netanyahu is now facing pressure from far-right members of his coalition government to take action. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir in a Telegram post on Wednesday said, “All Hezbollah strongholds must be burned and destroyed. War!”
This comes as even US President Joe Biden, one of Israel’s few steadfast allies on the global stage, says it’s not unfair to conclude that Netanyahu sees the war in Gaza as a political lifeline. It’s possible that the Israeli leader might now view an offensive against Hezbollah as another support beam for his flimsy coalition.
Regardless, the US and other major powers have been working for months to avoid seeing the Gaza war spark a wider conflict, which would only inject more chaos into the region. We’ll be watching to see what Netnayahu’s next move is in the days ahead.
Members of Lebanon's Hezbollah wave Hezbollah and Lebanese flags during a rally in southern Lebanon marking the ninth anniversary of the end of the 2006 war with Israel, August 14, 2015.
Will Israel invade Lebanon?
Israel is getting fed up with Hezbollah as it continues to exchange cross-border fire with the powerful Iran-backed Lebanese militant group, which has close ties to Hamas. On Thursday, an Israeli government spokesperson urged the international community to speak out now against Hezbollah’s “brazen” actions “instead of later criticizing our decisive response.”
This echoed stark warnings from top Israeli officials about the escalating situation, who’ve signaled that an invasion of southern Lebanon is not off the table. The Israeli military and Hezbollah have regularly traded fire since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.
“If the world and the Lebanese government don’t act in order to prevent the firing on Israel’s northern residents, and to distance Hezbollah from the border, the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] will do it,” Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet and a former defense minister, said Wednesday.
Gantz said time for a diplomatic solution is running out, warning that the next stage in fighting with Hezbollah “will be deep, forceful, and surprising.” His comments come amid growing concerns that the war in Gaza is raising the risks of a regional conflict.
The hostilities with Hezbollah have led to casualties on both sides of the border, and the IDF says 80,000 people have been evacuated from northern Israel while the UN says over 64,000 have been displaced in southern Lebanon. The fighting has killed more than 150 people in Lebanon, including over 20 civilians (three were journalists), per AFP. At least four civilians and nine soldiers have been killed on the Israeli side, its military says.
Though Israel is calling on the Lebanese government to do something about Hezbollah, it has little power to do so. Beirut currently has no president, no functioning government for over a year, and no money to speak of. Not to mention, Hezbollah has lawmakers in parliament, officials in the ministries, and its armed forces are more powerful than the official Lebanese army.
Prepared to strike: In reference to the border hostilities, Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on Wednesday said that the military needed to be “prepared to strike if required.”The Israeli military is currently at a state of heightened readiness along the northern border.
Israel has invaded Lebanon in the past, including in 2006 after Hezbollah launched a deadly cross-border raid and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah was also founded after Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
We’ll be watching to see if Israel launches another incursion into Lebanon in the coming days.
An Israeli tank fires towards Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, at the Israel-Gaza border, in southern Israel, December 27, 2023.
The war in Gaza has turned the Middle East into a powder keg
The risks of a regional war in the Middle East are rising, as a number of different actors with competing interests and historic rivalries become increasingly entangled amid the war in Gaza.
In the past week alone, President Joe Biden ordered strikes against an Iran-backed militia after several US troops were wounded in an attack in Iraq, the US shot down drones and missiles in the Red Sea launched by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, Iran accused Israel of killing a top general in Syria and vowed revenge, and Israel and Hezbollah continued trading fire – prompting Israeli officials to raise the possibility of invading Lebanon.
“We are now at a fork in the road: Either Hezbollah backs off from the Israeli border, in line with UN Resolution 1701, or we will push it away ourselves,” Eylon Levy, an Israeli government spokesperson, said Wednesday.
All of this is part of an escalating tit-for-tat between Iranian proxies, the US, and Israel that is intrinsically linked to the war in Gaza. Iran-backed militias have targeted US troops dozens of times since Oct. 7, while the Houthis have carried out a string of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Iran’s proxies have been clear that their recent attacks on US forces, Israel, and other entities in the region are a direct response to the war in Gaza.
Meanwhile, there’s currently little hope for a halt in the fighting in Gaza, even a temporary one, despite global calls for a cease-fire as the death toll rises and the humanitarian crisis in the territory worsens. Egypt in recent days put forward an ambitious peace proposal, but neither Hamas nor Israel appear eager to embrace a lasting truce. Hamas is unwilling to give up control of Gaza and Israel is determined to destroy the militant group. Beyond Gaza, settler violence is increasing in the occupied West Bank.
Experts on the region warn that the worsening situation is a recipe for disaster.
It’s still “hard to predict when these tensions will get out of control and the region is plunged into an abyss,” Randa Slim, senior fellow and director of conflict resolution at the Middle East Institute, tweeted on Tuesday.
“At some point, one of the many parties that are involved in this conflict will miscalculate,” says Slim.
Ian Explains: 2023: A good year for warmongers
2023 was a rough year for people who want peace in the world, whether it was the war in Ukraine, Gaza, or the one Americans seem to be fighting against each other.
Looking ahead to 2024, one phrase may be coming back to you: The wheels are coming off.
As Ian Bremmer explains, for years, he has been warning that our GZERO world – characterized by a lack of global leadership and the geopolitical conflict that grows as a consequence – was gathering speed. That acceleration is only increasing today while channels of international cooperation – multinational institutions, traditional alliances, and global supply chains – are losing their ability to absorb shock.
Today, when we speak of war, we've got to specify which war we're talking about. Is it the war in Ukraine that's remaking the security architecture of Europe, or is it the war in Gaza that's destabilizing the Middle East and threatening global religious conflict? Or is it the war that the Americans are fighting amongst themselves?
Look, we don’t mean to be all grinchy. There’s plenty of good news to chase the bad. US-China relations are relatively stable compared to years past. India, for all its shortcomings, is a politically stable democracy, and it’s emerging as a crucial bridge between the Global South on one side and the US, Japan, and Europe on the other. The EU is stronger than ever, and Mexico is poised to enter a year of political stability.
It’s safe to say it’ll be a tough year ahead. Stay with GZERO and Ian Bremmer; we'll keep trying to make sense of it all.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Overlooked stories in 2023
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Overlooked stories in 2023
In 2023, a war in Ukraine got worse and new one erupted in Gaza, but there also were many other stories that didn't capture the world's attention.
2023 has been a rough one, hasn't it? From a war in Ukraine that lurched into its third year with mere kilometers of territory traded on the battlefield to a new chapter in an old conflict in Gaza with no end in sight, it's enough to make a person want to dig a bunker in the backyard. Or at least get into yoga...
In this episode, Ian Bremmer takes stock of the state of the world in 2023. Be warned: no sugar shall be coating said thoughts! Then, we'll bring you a fascinating conversation with sociologist Zeynep Tufekci about the one thing everyone is overlooking in the AI conversation. Hint: it has nothing to do with Elon Musk (thank goodness!).
And speaking of being overlooked, how much have you heard about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the past year? Well, thousands of Armenians who fled that deadly territorial dispute are experiencing a new host of challenges in the country’s capital thanks to thousands of…you guessed it…fleeing Russians.