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A Palestinian woman inspects a house that was destroyed after an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, April 24, 2024.
Rafah braces for Israeli invasion as famine looms
As the World Food Programme warns that Gaza is getting closer to famine by the day, US troops are set to begin constructing a floating pier off the northern coast of the enclave to increase the flow of desperately needed aid. The project is expected to be done by early May.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to lay the groundwork for an invasion of Rafah, the southern Gaza city where over a million Palestinians are sheltering. Israel has pummeled Rafah with airstrikes in recent days, and the Israeli military is gathering tanks and armored vehicles near the southern Gaza border ahead of the expected operation.
The Israeli government, which says Rafah is the last Hamas stronghold in Gaza, has rebuffed international opposition to a ground offensive. Israel also says it’s taking steps to help evacuate civilians before invading, and satellite images suggest
Months of unsuccessful efforts to secure a new truce in the war have kept the door open for a Rafah operation. On Wednesday, a top Hamas official said the militant group would lay down its arms if Israel accepted an independent Palestinian state with pre-1967 borders — but there’s virtually no chance of that happening, particularly given the current Israeli government firmly opposes Palestinian statehood.
For now, all eyes are on Rafah. “We are afraid of what will happen in Rafah. The level of alert is very high,” Ibrahim Khraishi, the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations, said Thursday.
Flags from across the divide wave in the air over protests at Columbia University on Thursday, April 25, 2024.
Slogans of war
Where do we draw the line between free speech and a safe space? That’s the core question posed by the protests and the arrests raging on campuses right now over the Hamas-Israel war.
Of the many complex, painful issues contributing to the tension stemming from the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre and the ongoing Israeli attacks in Gaza, dividing groups into two basic camps, pro-Israel and pro-Palestine, is only making this worse. Call it a category problem.
What do these terms, pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian, even mean? Are they helpful, or is it time to stop using them altogether?
The fundamental flaw with these terms is that they conflate support for the existence of a country with support for the government or leaders in power. For example, does pro-Israel mean support for the existence of the state of Israel, or for the policies of the current government? They are wildly different things.
Before Oct. 7, there were already massive rallies against Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, and they have only grown louder. Are the people protesting him anti-Israel? Of course not. Patriotism and partisanship are not always the same thing. The same person who supports the right of Israel to exist – and may even fight for Israel against a group like Hamas – might just as well protest the Likud government, support a two-state solution, and want a cease-fire in Gaza. Read the popular Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz and see the diverse views and critical opinions on Israeli policy.
The same is true for the Palestinian cause. Supporting a viable, safe, prosperous Palestinian state is the normative position of most governments around the world, but that does not mean supporting the murderous agenda of Hamas, which is listed as a terrorist organization in Canada and the US. Palestinians and millions of others who are deeply furious at the Israeli actions in Gaza and Netanyahu’s policies should not necessarily be equated with supporting Hamas and their eliminationist goals. Are you anti-Palestinian if you do not support Hamas? Of course not.
The same is true anywhere. No one asks if you are, say, pro-France, pro-Italy, pro-Canada, or pro-America when they are debating a specific policy. Instead, they ask if you support a particular position or action of the government in power. Reducing this to a conflict about the right to exist as a country – for Israel or Palestine – is a road to endless war. Making this, as it ought to be, about a conflict of policy and leadership – however deadly it is right now – is the path toward resolution.
With the war in Gaza raging, it is understandable that people are being forced to take a side: Are you pro-Israel or pro-Palestinian? That gives the patina of a firm moral stance, but it plays into the hands of the most radical forces on both sides who strategically want to co-opt the reasonable middle ground for their own purposes.
Among the great propaganda victories of this war are the Hamasification of the Palestinian cause on one side and the Netanyahuization of the Israeli voices on the other (and no, this is not meant to make a false equivalence between the two, but simply to describe the political dynamics).
That’s why you see, say, signs supporting Hamas on campuses and chants that celebrate Oct. 7. That’s why there is a rise in antisemitism or, on the other side, a refusal in some places to acknowledge the deaths and suffering of the people of Gaza.
The category problem supports this dynamic and undermines the rational middle ground where, for generations, there has been a genuine if fruitless effort to find a peaceful two-state solution. It is now parodied as a sinkhole of mushy naivete, offensive bothsidesism, and false equivalencies, and protesters and their slogans shout it down. But it remains the only hope.
There isn’t a lot people can do in the face of such a long-standing bloody conflict – though joining protests is certainly one thing. But perhaps adhering to the middle ground and avoiding the broad categories that help radicals on each side is a small but effective action.
You might think that the one place you’d find this middle ground would be on university campuses, where details, nuance, and debate are supposed to thrive. That’s not happening. On many campuses today, it is now impossible to distinguish between free speech and safe space.
Why the US is sending aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week. A big $90 billion package that has been approved by the US House of Representatives, going through the Senate shortly after months of debate and, all of the package, all three major pieces of it, have some significant, complicated features.
First of all, the biggest piece for Ukraine, $60 billion, massive military support.
They had been in danger of losing significant more territory. This certainly shores them up. It helps the Ukrainians. It makes the Europeans panic less, but, you know, can they longer term hold on? What is the end game? The Ukrainians are, of course, running short not just of material to fight, but also air defense capabilities and, critically, people, soldiers. It's much harder for them to get people for the front lines than it is for the authoritarian, and much larger populated Russia. And so, the intention is that the Ukrainians don't fall apart, but of course, longer term, the idea that the US will continue to be able to provide 60 billion in support year after year. Certainly not true if Trump becomes president, probably not true if Biden wins a second term. What you really want to do is try to find a way to get them in a better position so that negotiations, inevitably, that need to occur with Russia, can be more productive and more constructive from the Ukrainian side, from the European side, from the NATO side. The US kick the can on this last year when the Americans, were in much better position supporting Ukraine. Now it's harder. Always is the case is that you think that things are going to get better. You don't feel like taking the political risk and as a consequence you extend and pretend. And now they're in a worse position. So I'm glad that the money came through. I'm glad the Ukrainians, are still fighting courageously and want to fight courageously. But of course, longer term, this war leads to some degree of partition where the Ukrainians are losing their land.
Israel, closest ally of the United States in the Middle East. Some 17 billion in military support for Israel, also some 9 billion in humanitarian aid in Gaza in this plan.
But, of course, increasingly, the United States does not support Israel continuing to fight against Hamas in Gaza. They want to see a lot more protection for Palestinian civilians, which the Israelis have been reluctant to put in place. They don't want to see a ground offensive into Rafah. Over a million Palestinians shelter in there. The Israelis are fully intent on continuing with that, proceeding with it. They did want to see a cease-fire that was linked directly to a hostage release. Now, increasingly, the US is talking about those two things as critical but delinked. And at the same time as the US is providing all this money, you have sanctions being placed by the United States on battalions of the Israeli Defense Forces engaged in human rights violations. This shows just how impossible this position is for President Biden to maneuver domestically, not to mention internationally. The US is overwhelmingly, the one country that is most supportive of Israel. Biden is overwhelmingly the political leader that is most supportive of Israel. But most of his constituents are not. And this is absolutely going to hurt him, even though it's a foreign policy issue and they don't usually play that heavily in recent decades in the election coming up in November. And you’ll see it, of course, across campuses all over the country, including my own at Columbia.
And then finally Taiwan. And this is in a sense the least controversial, because everyone on the Democratic and Republican side pretty much supports more support for Taiwan, is opposed to China. It's very easy to get lots of legislation that makes life more difficult for China. At the same time, though, the long term strategy of the United States is to make Taiwan less important, less important for the Americans in making sure that semiconductor production, moves from Taiwan to the United States, to other allies, not just a few miles off of the mainland Chinese coast, but also export controls that prevent the Chinese from getting advanced semiconductors from Taiwan as well. In other words, the big US strategy is not just arming the Taiwanese and helping them defend themselves, but also making Taiwan fundamentally less important to mainland China. and one of the main reasons that the Chinese would not be interested in attacking Taiwan long term or squeezing them hard economically long term, is because they're so indispensable to the Chinese economy. This is not going to be the case long term.
In all three of these areas, you've got the United States with friends, but they are less aligned with strategically than they are tactically. And that means that this money that we see going forward is all about kicking the can on short term gains that make sense politically for the US right now. But long term do not resolve the challenges that exist for the US with these countries.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Women mourn near the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, April 21, 2024.
Israel-Hamas: Strikes, support, and… sanctions?
Israeli air strikes on Rafah in southern Gaza this weekend killed 22 people, including 18 children. Israel has intensified its operations against Hamas in recent days, leading to speculation that it may be preparing for a ground operation in Rafah — where some 1.4 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering.
In a statement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel “will increase the political and military pressure on Hamas ...We will land more and painful blows on Hamas — soon.”
Giving and taking. This comes as the US House of Representatives approveda $95 billion legislative package, including $9 billion in humanitarian aid, of which $2 billion is reportedly earmarked for Gaza, and $17 billion in defense aid to Israel. The Senate is expected to pass the package soon, and President Joe Biden is ready to sign it.
Simultaneously, however, the US is threatening to sanction the IDF’s Orthodox Netzah Yehuda battalion over accusations of human rights abuses in the West Bank. This would be the first time the US has considered such a move, sparking a sharp response from Israeli officials.
Netanyahu described the sanctions as “the height of absurdity and a moral low” during a time of conflict, while fellow war cabinet member Benny Gantzwarned that “imposing sanctions on the unit is a dangerous precedent and sends the wrong message to our shared enemies.”
Members of the Iranian Army's land force are marching in a military parade to mark the anniversary of Iran's Army Day at an Army military base in Tehran, Iran, on April 17, 2024.
When will Israel strike Iran, and will a hostage deal ever happen?
The world is waiting to see how Israel retaliates against Tehran’s recent air attacks. But, according to new reports, nothing is likely until after Passover, a holiday celebrating the liberation of Israelites from Egypt thousands of years ago. Passover begins on Monday and ends on April 30.
The news comes as Israel continues to weigh the extent and timing of any response to Iran’s drone-and-missile salvo from last weekend, with the US urging restraint for fear of igniting a wider regional war. Iran says it will respond to any Israeli strikes, and on Thursday warned it could pursue nuclear weapons if any of its nuclear facilities are targeted — a prospect that Israel and its Western allies have worked against for years.
Meanwhile, talks on a cease-fire in Gaza – a surefire way to cool things down – are at an impasse, with Qatar, an indispensable interlocutor between Israel and Hamas, now saying it will reevaluate its role in the discussions following US criticism of its ties to the group. But would Qatar really walk away entirely? Doubtful – the tiny Gulf state views its mediator role as a key means of boosting its global clout.
“Qatar is frustrated by the criticisms emerging from some American politicians,” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group. And while “Doha may try to distance itself from the talks,” she says it “is unlikely to abandon its role.”
Israeli soldiers stand next to military vehicles, near the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Israel, April 15, 2024.
War in Gaza rages on as all eyes turn to Israel-Iran tensions
Much of the world is waiting to see how Israel responds to Iran’s weekend attack. In the meantime, Israeli tanks reportedly rolled back into parts of northern Gaza on Tuesday, a day after the military told Palestinians not to return to that part of the enclave. According to reports, airstrikes also pummeled Rafah, the southern Gaza city that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to invade and where over a million Palestinians are sheltering.
Countries in the region are raising the alarm about a lack of focus on Gaza in the wake of Iran’s attack. Jordan's top diplomat, Ayman Safadi, said Tuesday that Netanyahu was using “his confrontation with Iran” to “draw attention away from Gaza.”
Israel has vowed to respond to the Iranian attack, but hasn’t said how it intends to do so – or when. Still, it’s locked in tit-for-tats with Iranian proxies. One example: The IDF said Tuesday that it killed a top Hezbollah commander with an airstrike in Lebanon, as drone attacks attributed to the Iran-backed militant group reportedly injured several in northern Israel.
With the region already on edge and the estimated death toll in Gaza at over 33,000, Israel is being urged to show restraint against Iran. If Israel avoids escalating with Iran, analysts suggest this could see the US ease up on its opposition to a ground offensive in Rafah — but such an operation would also likely tank the possibility of a cease-fire anytime soon.
For now, Iran and Israel are in a “de-escalatory phase,” tweeted Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, but Tehran will continue to support its proxies, and Israel isn’t going to stop the war in Gaza “or targeting Iranian military leaders [who are] supporting proxies.”
A demonstrator during a protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and to call for the release of hostages kidnapped by Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, April 6, 2024.
Does Hamas have the Israeli hostages?
Cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas seemingly took a bad turn on Wednesday. In recent days, the US presented a plan calling for a six-week cease-fire, during which Hamas would release 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for 900 Palestinian prisoners currently in Israeli jails. But Hamas reportedly rejected the proposal and planned to present its own path for ending the war.
Then, late Wednesday, more alarming news broke with Hamas reportedly telling negotiators it doesn’t have 40 hostages who meet the criteria for the initial phase of a proposed temporary cease-fire in Gaza.
Where are the remaining hostages, and how many are still alive? Roughly 250 people were taken hostage when Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and killed roughly 1,200 people. Dozens were released during a temporary truce in November.
According to Israel, 133 hostages remain in captivity — though 36 are confirmed dead. Other militant groups, like Palestinian Islamic Jihad, are thought to be holding some hostages. Whether Hamas knows where they are — and whether it can convince such groups to hand them over — is one of the big issues looming over the truce negotiations.
The hostages are Hamas’ primary bargaining chip in the talks that have dragged on for weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under intense pressure from the families to bring them home.
If Hamas can’t locate them, truce talks will likely remain at an impasse. And if many or most hostages are dead, it could give Bibi incentive to take an even more brutal approach to a war that’s already estimated to have killed more than 33,000 Palestinians — including more than 13,000 children.
Netanyahu has repeatedly said he aims to destroy Hamas, though this is widely viewed as unachievable. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden says Bibi’s approach to the war has been a “mistake,” in yet another sign that the US is losing patience with the Israeli leader.
We’ll be watching for news on the fate of the hostages and how it will impact Israel’s approach to the war.
Palestinian gunmen attend the funeral of the Palestinians who were killed in an Israeli army raid in the West Bank city of Jenin, Jan. 7, 2024.
Iran throws more sparks into a tinderbox
Even as the war in Gaza rages, tensions in the occupied West Bank continue to rise, and there is fresh evidence that Iran – a longstanding backer of armed Palestinian groups – has been flooding the territory with weapons over the past couple of years.
A New York Times investigation found that Tehran has been smuggling thousands of handguns and rifles into the West Bank. The weapons are routed either through the long, porous West Bank-Jordan border or via smuggling networks running through Lebanon and Israel itself. The Iranian commander assassinated last week by an Israeli airstrike in Damascus is thought to have been involved.
Since the Hamas rampage of Oct. 7, Israel has carried out fresh crackdowns on suspected militants in the West Bank, while the government has directly armed Israeli settlers who live in the territory illegally. Last year alone, more than 500 Palestinians were killed in clashes with Israeli settlers or troops, the highest mark on record.
The Palestinian Authority, which recognizes Israel and exerts limited self-government over the West Bank, is weak and deeply unpopular, raising concerns that the situation there could explode into a full-on violent intifada again, quickly transforming the Gaza war into a wider, two-front affair.