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Who is Muhammad Mustafa?
Mahmoud Abbas, the 88-year-old president of the widely unpopular Palestinian Authority, on Thursday named Muhammad Mustafa as the authority’s prime minister. Given Abbas’s age, and the need for a successor as leader of the PA who can offer some credible alternative to Hamas as the political voice of Palestinians, Mustafa will now become the subject of wide international scrutiny.
So, who is he? Mustafa is a trained economist with a degree from George Washington University in Washington, DC. His current job is head of the Palestine Investment Fund, the Palestinian Territories’ sovereign development fund. He has also served as the PA’s economy minister and deputy prime minister.
More to the point, Mustafa is a longtime PA insider who owes his career and standing to Abbas. For those hoping the aging president would choose a dynamic, independent-minded leader as PM who might lead in a bold new direction, Mustafa is an unpopular choice – one that signals Abbas intends to remain the dominant voice in the PA for as long as he can.
Why the world isn't fair: Yuval Noah Harari on AI, Ukraine, and Gaza
Listen: In the latest episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with bestselling author and historian Yuval Noah Harari to delve into the transformative power of storytelling, the existential challenges posed by AI, the critical geopolitical stakes of the Ukraine conflict, and the complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian situation, while also exploring personal and societal strategies for navigating an era of unprecedented change and advocating for mindfulness and ethical awareness.
Harari highlights humanity's unique ability to forge societies through shared stories, which, while unifying, can also seed conflict. This is a special, extended version of their interview, taped live at the 92nd Street Y in NYC and exclusive to podcast listeners.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
- Podcast: The path to a two-state solution for Israel & Palestine: Former PM Ehud Barak's perspective ›
- Podcast: The case for global optimism with Steven Pinker ›
- Podcast: How we got here: Evaluating 1619 and US history with Nikole Hannah-Jones ›
- Podcast: Challenging the climate change narrative with Bjorn Lomborg ›
- Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war ›
- Yuval Noah Harari: Netanyahu's 'Deep State' fears enabled Oct 7 attack ›
Gaza aid convoy deaths threaten cease-fire talks
The WHO on Friday warned that the health system in Gaza is "more than on its knees."
This came a day after over 100 people were killed in Gaza as a desperate crowd gathered for aid amid the escalating humanitarian crisis in the enclave. Gaza officials say that Israeli forces opened fire on the crowd, while the Israeli military blamed most of the deaths on a stampede and the general mayhem in the area.
The aid convoy deaths occurred the same day it was reported that the death toll from the war in Gaza surpassed 30,000. It also happened as concerns mount over the humanitarian situation in the territory, with children dying from hunger and hundreds of thousands of people reportedly on the brink of famine.
The incident is threatening to derail cease-fire talks. With global scrutiny of the Israel-Hamas war rising, the US — Israel’s top ally — is desperate to reach an agreement for a temporary pause to the fighting.
But when asked Thursday whether the deaths would complicate efforts to secure a truce, President Joe Biden said, “I know it will.” Just days earlier, Biden expressed optimism that a deal was imminent.
UN chief António Guterres on Thursday called for an independent inquiry into the aid convoy fatalities, which was echoed by France, Italy and Germany on Friday.Rival Palestinian factions try to make nice in Moscow
Hamas and Fatah, rival Palestinian factions with a bloody history, were in Moscow on Thursday for reconciliation talks.
Why is this significant? The jihadists of Hamas and the secular nationalists of Fatah are Palestine’s most powerful factions. They fought a war in 2007 that left Hamas in control of Gaza and Fatah running the occupied West Bank. Reconciliation would be crucial for establishing any stable Palestinian state in the future.
Not everyone is a fan. Even if Hamas and Fatah can make doves cry, it’s difficult to see Israel or the US singing along. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dead-set on destroying Hamas which, unlike Fatah, refuses to recognize Israel’s existence.
But polls show Hamas is popular among Palestinians, partly because Fatah’s accommodationist stance is seen as a failure. Unless Netanyahu can destroy the group entirely, a tall order, any plans for post-war governance in Gaza – to say nothing of a Palestinian state some day – will require some blessing or buy-in from Hamas.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That “post-war” is as far off as ever. US President Joe Biden on Thursday walked back his earlier optimism about an imminent ceasefire.Israel orders evacuations in north Gaza, but where will people go?
Israel on Tuesday ordered new evacuations in Gaza City as it prepares for a controversial ground offensive in Rafah, the enclave’s southernmost town.
The news is a reminder that roughly 300,000 Palestinians are still estimated to be in northern Gaza despite evacuations that pushed waves of people south after Oct. 7. It’s also indicative of the myriad challenges Palestinians face amid the Israel-Hamas war. It’s estimated that up to 1.9 million people in Gaza have been displaced since fighting began, and around 1.5 million are sheltering in Rafah.
Israel issued a March 10 deadline for Hamas to return the hostages or face a ground offensive in Rafah, but it hasn’t offered a plan for ensuring civilian safety. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested they could evacuate north, the direction many fled from. Though Cairo opposes accepting refugees, it’s bracing for the possibility that Israel’s operation could push thousands of Palestinians across its border.
Meanwhile, the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza. Washington is pushing for a separate resolution that calls for a cease-fire “as soon as practicable” and urges Israel to scrap its plan to invade Rafah.
Israel’s plans for Rafah face fierce opposition
Israel announced its intention to conduct ground operations in the southern Gaza town of Rafah to root out four Hamas battalions it says remain based there. The plan faces opposition from the US and other nations, however, over concerns for the safety of the 1.4 million displaced Palestinians sheltering in Rafah.
On Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid, “We’re going to do it while providing safe passage for the civilian population.” But it’s unclear where such a large number of people can go.
Egypt is concerned that Israel's offensive could see Palestinians flee into the Sinai Peninsula and never be permitted to return to Gaza. Cairo has also said it opposes increased Israeli military activity near its borders and warned it will suspend its decades-old peace treaty with Israel if troops are deployed. The treaty governs the deployment of forces on both sides of the border and is seen as crucial to maintaining stability in the region.
These new tensions threaten to derail ongoing cease-fire and hostage release talks mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar. An unnamed Hamas official stated that an invasion of Rafah would “blow up” these negotiations.
As Israel prepared for a ground invasion of Rafah, it pummeled the town with strikes on Monday to provide cover for an overnight operation that resulted in the rescue of two Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Dozens of Palestinians were reportedly killed in the process.
Bibi rejects Hamas’ ‘delusional’ cease-fire offer
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday forcefully rejected a proposal from Hamas for a 135-day cease-fire involving a phased exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners – and the eventual withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
Describing Hamas’ terms as “delusional,” Netanyahu said Israel would continue to pursue “absolute victory.” The Israeli leader has repeatedly said the war won’t end until Hamas is destroyed, and he is making it clear that he will not accept any proposal that allows for the militant group to retain control of even a sliver of Gaza.
A diplomatic dead-end. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday signaled that Washington will keep pushing for a new truce and hostage deal. But he acknowledged that “there is a lot of work to be done.”
With both Bibi and Hamas unwilling to compromise, the war is poised to continue. Meanwhile, Israel is seemingly shifting its offensive to Rafah, where many displaced Palestinians are gathered.
UN chief António Guterres on Wednesday warned that Israel focusing its ground operations on Rafah could “exponentially increase what is already a humanitarian nightmare with untold regional consequences."
Hamas and Bibi are both obstacles to a cease-fire
The US, Qatar, and Egypt are scrambling to secure a new truce in Gaza that would see more hostages released, but major obstacles remain. Hamas on Tuesday said it responded to a recent proposal for a temporary pause in the fighting with a “positive spirit,” but reiterated its demands for a permanent cease-fire and an end to Israel’s offensive in the coastal enclave.
President Joe Biden called Hamas’ response “a little over the top.” Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken – who’s in the Middle East this week – said a deal was “possible” but conceded there’s still “a lot of work to be done.”
A fight for survival. Hamas’ demands, designed to ensure it retains control of Gaza, are fundamentally at odds with the primary goal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: the complete destruction of the militant group. Though Netanyahu’s objective appears increasingly unattainable, he’s shown no willingness to compromise, and there’s a growing perception in Israel that the embattled leader views the war as a political lifeline.
Blinken said he’ll discuss Hamas’ response to the proposal with the Israeli government on Wednesday. We’ll be watching to see how Israel reacts to Hamas’ terms, and whether the news that at least 31 of the remaining 136 hostages in Gaza are dead will influence the direction of the negotiations.