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Biden's exit overshadows Netanyahu's US visit
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will Biden dropping out of the presidential race overshadow Netanyahu's US visit?
Oh, was it happening today? I didn't notice, I was so busy focused on Biden dropping out. No, clearly, it is a massive benefit for Biden that it is now less of a deal. Probably means less demonstrations, means less media coverage. It is a big problem, right? I mean, you've got the US top ally in the Middle East, Israel, the leader is clearly disliked by Biden. Kamala Harris not showing up to preside over Senate. She's, you know, otherwise disposed at a prearranged meeting in Indianapolis. And then you've got Netanyahu going down to Mar-a-Lago to meet with the guy that he wants to become president, former President Donald Trump. All of that is problematic for Biden but less problematic because US political news at home is so overwhelming and headline-worthy.
Can the China-brokered agreement between Hamas and Fatah help bring Palestinian peace?
Unclear. I mean, the fact that Hamas, which is seen as a terrorist organization, and rightly so in my view, by the United States, by most of the West, and certainly by Israel, now has a peace agreement with Fatah, definitely brings the Palestinians closer together. But frankly, since October 7th, the Palestinians have only become more radicalized as a population; just like in Israel, the Jews have become more radicalized as a population, both less interested in peace. The rest of the world is very interested in peace, but very hard to get from here to there. I do think there is a chance that we can still get that six-week agreement because the Knesset is going to be out of session until October, which means that Netanyahu doesn't have to worry about getting thrown out of office if he has a six-week agreement and goes back to fighting, the far right, by the time they could throw him out, the Knesset would be back in. That's interesting and worth looking at.
After a long hot summer of French politics, is the Olympics a rallying moment for Macron?
Not at all. He can't get a government together. That has proved very challenging for him. 2027 still looks like the end of centrism in France, at least for a while. Not going to stop me from watching the Olympics though.
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden is welcomed by Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, as he visits Israel amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 18, 2023.
Biden’s out, Bibi’s still in
How will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Washington, DC, unfold now that US President Joe Biden has called off his 2024 reelection campaign?
As late as Sunday morning,media outlets were reporting that Biden didn’t want to give Netanyahu “the satisfaction” of bowing out before the trip, due to their recent disagreements over the Israel-Hamas war. Netanyahu was originally scheduled to meet Biden, but that’s in limbo given Biden’s COVID-19 diagnosis.
Now that Biden has announced he will step down, will Vice President Kamala Harris step up? She was already scheduled to meet with the Israeli PM, and all eyes will be on what message she delivers – and how she delivers it, considering it’s her first high-profile foreign policy gig.
Then again, it might not. Netanyahu hopes to have a tete-a-tete with Republican nominee Donald Trump,though no meeting has been confirmed. Republicans have invited the Israeli leader to address a joint session of the US Congress on Wednesday –a speech several Democrats plan to boycott, as 60 of them did during Netanyahu’s lastaddress to Congress in 2015, when he attempted to disrupt the Iran nuclear deal. We’ll be watching who comes out and who stays home this time.Palestinians flee the area after an Israeli attack on July 13, 2024 in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip.
Hamas says Mohammed Deif lives and denies halting truce talks
Hamas claimed it had not withdrawn from Gaza truce talks on Sunday, despite earlier reports to the contrary, after Saturday’s Israeli offensive targeted Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif. Hamas says Deif survived, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Deif’s fate remains unclear. The strike killed 92 other Palestinians, including women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
A Hamas official described the attacks as a “grave escalation” that showed Israel was not interested in reaching a cease-fire agreement, but Hamas’s military strategy also does not facilitate this objective. A weekend report from the New York Times, for example, details how Hamas fighters embed their operations within civilian areas, ensuring that any Israeli action produces heavy casualties. Hamas fighters often use a system of lookouts, including children, to monitor Israeli movements before emerging in plain clothes to launch surprise attacks and meld back into the local population.
This accomplishes Hamas’s real goal of dragging out the conflict with Israel, undermining the Jewish state and isolating it on the international stage.As far back as November 2023, Khalil al-Hayya, a deputy to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, said “This battle … did not seek to improve the situation in Gaza. This battle is to completely overthrow the situation.”
With the conflictnow increasingly expanding to include Hezbollah, Hamas may be dangerously close to achieving this goal. The losers, of course, are both the Palestinian inhabitants of Gaza and the people of Israel, desperate for the return of the over 100 hostages still held by Hamas, as well as Jews around the world now subject to a surge in antisemitic attacks.
Justice & peace in Gaza: The UN Palestinian ambassador's perspective
With nearly 40,000 Palestinians and over 1,000 Israelis dead, the war in Gaza is still far from over. But one day, it will end. And then what? On the season premiere of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Palestinian-American diplomat Riyad Mansour to discuss the Gaza war and how it might end. Mansour serves as the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations and was appointed to his role by Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank in partnership with Israel but has no jurisdiction, for now at least, over Gaza.
In a wide-ranging and candid interview, Mansour emphasizes the need for justice and an end to the occupation for both Israelis and Palestinians. He discusses the role of the United States in facilitating a ceasefire and a two-state solution and highlights the growing international support for the Palestinian cause. "There is something in the air,” Mansour tells Bremmer. “People want justice for the Palestinians. People want this war and this conflict to end. People want the occupation to end because it's good for Israel and it's good for the Palestinians."
Perhaps the most contentious part of the interview has to do with Hamas, an organization that Mansour takes pains to distance himself from without condemning it outright. Mansour laments the killing of innocent civilians and calls for the release of hostages and prisoners on both sides. “Innocent people, innocent civilians, should not be exposed to any harm. This is international law."
He also touches on Gaza's future governance and Hamas’ problematic role in those talks, stating that negotiations are ongoing and that progress can be made through diplomatic efforts. “Now for us, internally, we need to put our house in order with all political groups,” Mansour says, implying that Hamas’ role in Gaza’s future is far from certain.
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, began nationwide on public television stations beginning Friday, July 5 (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ian Explains: What's blocking an Israel-Hamas cease-fire?
What is standing in the way of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the war in Gaza?
On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer unpacks the challenges and obstacles to achieving a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Hamas war. The stakes are, as ever, incredibly high, and the humanitarian crisis has only gotten worse since the war began. Since October 7, around 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, and the UN estimates that 60% of Gazan homes and 80% of commercial buildings and schools have been destroyed or damaged. If the fighting doesn’t end soon, over a million Gazans will face near-total starvation by mid-summer.
In late May, President Biden unveiled a three-phase ceasefire proposal that he said had the support of the Israeli government and the global community and was backed by the UN Security Council. But hopes for an agreement were dashed after Hamas requested amendments to the deal and Israel refused to publicly accept the plan. Hamas says any deal must include a permanent end to the war and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Israel says it will only accept temporary pauses in fighting until Hamas is fully eradicated.
So is there any hope of a breakthrough? Will politics continue to take precedence over peace? Both the Palestinian and Israeli people would benefit from a real, lasting ceasefire, but, as Bremmer explains, it's not clear that the political leadership on either side actually wants it to happen.
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations beginning Friday, July 5 (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔):.
GZERO WORLD with Ian Bremmer returns for Season 7
GZERO WORLD with Ian Bremmer kicks off its seventh season at a critical moment for both the United States and the world. Americans are heading towards a highly contentious election, the deadly Israel-Hamas war rages, and AI technologies pose new threats to society, among other pressing issues. Through it all, host Ian Bremmer will continue to provide insights and analysis and engage in thoughtful conversation with global leaders on the award-winning weekly global affairs show.
The season opens with an interview with Ambassador Riyad Mansour, Permanent Observer of Palestine to the United Nations. Other new episodes will feature discussions with Argentina's controversial new president, Javier Milei, US Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly, and journalist Sally Jenkins on the politics of sports as the Paris Olympic Games approach.
Tune in this season as we explore global democracy, the governance of AI, the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, and much more. And don't worry, everyone's favorite satirical puppet parody series, PUPPET REGIME, is back with more ways to parody world leaders from Joe Biden and Donald Trump to Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations beginning Friday, July 5 (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔):.
Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Will Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia shift the war?
Possibly. They will make it harder, a lot harder for the Russians to take or advance on Kharkiv further, which is the second largest city in Ukraine, millions of people near the front lines. And if the Russians were to take it or destroy it, level it, you'd have millions of refugees that would be streaming out and into neighboring countries. Not something anyone in NATO wants to see. That is what is less likely to happen, because the Ukrainians can now hit Russian targeting outside of Ukraine.
How might India's trajectory evolve if Modi secures a third term in office?
Looks certainly very likely he's going to get a third term. That's what we've been thinking all the way through. And another five years means strong economic policymaking. Consistency from a Modi who has wanted to make India more investable, a Modi that has wanted to make India more attractive to partners, multinational corporations, financial institutions all over the world. Having said all of that, he has been much more pro-business than pro-competition. And that, of course, makes ultimately India less attractive as a market participant and certainly for a lot of companies, as India grows than it might otherwise be. Still, you're talking about the fifth largest economy in the world on track to becoming the third, growing at 7-8% a year, from a very low base for the next decade. Modi's leadership in India certainly makes you want to bet more on India, not less.
What is the likelihood that Israel and Hamas will agree to Biden's proposed cease-fire deal?
On balance, I still think it's pretty low, in part because the Israelis are not prepared to accept a shift to a permanent cease-fire until Hamas is destroyed. It's not just about Hamas not being able to engage in an October 7th attack again, as Biden has suggested. And that is an arrangement that Hamas is much less willing to sign on to. So, right now, at least, it seems the overlap between the interests of the two combatants, is not yet at a place where we can see a deal.
UNRWA funding cuts threaten Lebanon's Palestinian refugees
GZERO went inside the Shatila Camp in Beirut, one of Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camps, to better understand what the loss of UNRWA funding would mean for the people who call it home—the teachers, doctors, and local government workers who rely on UNRWA to provide basic services, like education, healthcare, and clean water to residents. The agency says it has enough funds to last through June, but it will need to make some tough choices after that.
“The reason UNRWA still exists after 75 years is because there is no political solution,” says Dorothee Klaus, URWA’s Lebanon director, “It is time to find a solution for Palestinian refugees to live in dignity like everybody else.