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Ukraine will define the future of NATO
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How is the role of NATO evolving now as the 75th anniversary of the organization coming up?
Well, it's going to be Ukraine that's going to be defining the future of NATO. Two issues most immediately: One, if NATO can take on a stronger role for coordinating military aid to Ukraine, that's been done so far by an ad hoc coalition and US support; there’s a proposal on the table for taking that over. The second is, of course, what Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg proposed on the day of the ministerial meeting in Brussels, to set up a very large fund for financing the military support in the years to come. We'll see how these two proposals evolve over the time period up until the Washington summit. And then there's, of course, the big issues of Ukraine membership.
How will the willingness of different countries to give military support be affected by what we've seen in terms of attacks on humanitarian aid in the last ten days?
Obviously, a negative impact, and a vivid debate, not least in the UK, over this decision. But I think most will be dependent upon how Israel will react, whether it will change its way of operating in terms of allowing humanitarian access of a sufficient quantity in and respecting the rights of humanitarian workers and truly respecting military law. Open questions, remains to be seen,
Ian Explains: Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza
What is Bibi thinking? Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
As the Gaza war enters its seventh bloody month, leaders in Washington, Jerusalem, and Gaza are asking what is motivating Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. And while we can't read his mind, we can follow what he's saying. "Our goal is to destroy the military and governing capabilities of Hamas in Gaza" Netanyahu recently said. "There is no substitute for victory."
Israel has launched over 30,000 airstrikes on Gaza since the war began on October 7, killing more than thirty thousand Palestinians, including 14,000 children. Meanwhile, over a hundred Israeli citizens remain Hamas hostages. And according to US intelligence, Israeli Defense Forces have only managed to destroy about 30% of Hamas leadership in those six months. Victory, in short, remains a long way off.
This leads back to the original question: What is Bibi thinking? Well, he's doing what he knows best: holding onto power. To remain prime minister, he must appease a governing coalition of hard-right religious nationalist parties that are resolutely opposed to a ceasefire, not to mention any long-term political settlement with the Palestinians. While the Gaza war is becoming increasingly unpopular internationally, within Israel, there remains a broad base of support for it. And finally, Netanyahu and Biden both know that regardless of internal frustrations, the US will continue to supply Israel with billions of dollars in military backing.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
- Netanyahu flirts with a lengthy stay in Gaza ›
- How Netanyahu used Hamas to avoid talks of a two-state solution ›
- Netanyahu’s failed Gaza strategy ›
- Friedman: Netanyahu is no longer at the wheel ›
- Yuval Noah Harari: Netanyahu's 'Deep State' fears enabled Oct 7 attack ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Netanyahu hostage to far-right coalition, says author Friedman - GZERO Media ›
- Author Thomas Friedman on how the Gaza war could end - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine will define the future of NATO - GZERO Media ›
Friedman: Netanyahu is no longer at the wheel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu has said that the only way the war in Gaza will end is with the complete destruction of Hamas, the pro-Palestinian terrorist group that controls Gaza and was behind the October 7 attack.
But Pulitzer prize-winning author and New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman argues that much of the horror that's played out in Gaza over the past six months goes back to a devil's bargain that Bibi has maintained with Hamas over the past fifteen years. "Netanyahu always understood that ... having a strong Hamas in Gaza is the best way to ensure a weak Palestinian Authority in the West Bank." In a wide-ranging interview for this week's episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Friedman to try to chart out an imaginable (and palatable) ending to the Middle East's bloodiest war in years. "[Netanyahu] is now hostage to a far-right in his coalition that has told him that anything that smacks of a Palestinian state or even progress toward a Palestinian state...is a no-go. We'll throw you out of power.'"
So what can people do who consider themselves both pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian? "The most important thing you can do to be pro-Israeli, " Friedman tells Bremmer, "...is to be for the removal of Bibi Netanyahu by the Israeli people." And the most pro-Palestinian thing you can do? "Be against Hamas and for the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah....Because if that project succeeds or makes progress, many more things are possible in terms of what can happen between the Israelis and Palestinians."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
- Netanyahu: “Now is the time for war” ›
- Netanyahu escalates feud with the White House ›
- Yuval Noah Harari: Netanyahu's 'Deep State' fears enabled Oct 7 attack ›
- Netanyahu and Hamas both won, Israelis and Palestinians lost ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Netanyahu hostage to far-right coalition, says author Friedman - GZERO Media ›
- Author Thomas Friedman on how the Gaza war could end - GZERO Media ›
Yuval Noah Harari on the perils of viewing Israel-Palestine through the 'victimhood' context
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer, filmed live at the historic 92nd Street Y in NYC, bestselling author Yuval Noah Harari discusses the profound role narratives play in conflict resolution and identity politics. It’s through this framing that Harari and Ian address the latest conflict between Israel and Gaza. Victimhood, Harari posits, often comes with an element of truth, but it carries the danger of absolving individuals or nations of responsibility. "If you think about yourself primarily as a victim, it relieves you of all responsibility," he explains.
Bremmer also presses Harari on the notion of narratives, and particularly, how to distinguish between patriotism and nationalism. Harari describes patriotism as the love for a unique group and a willingness to do more for them, akin to how we treat our families. Nationalism, however, turns perilous when it crosses into supremacism — when love for one's group becomes an excuse to despise and discriminate against others. Harari asserts, "It becomes dangerous when we start saying this group of people, they are not just unique. They are superior."
Harari defends the possibility of simultaneously supporting the rights and dignities of both Israelis and Palestinians. Holding dual narratives of both people's aspirations to live dignified lives in their homelands is not only possible but necessary, according to Harari. "Just because you are in favor of the rights of Palestinians doesn't mean you have to be also in favor of destroying Israel completely," he states.
Watch full episode: Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
In a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer, filmed live at the historic 92nd Street Y in NYC, bestselling author Yuval Noah Harari delves into the foundational role of storytelling in human civilization, the existential challenges posed by artificial intelligence, the geopolitical implications of the Ukraine war, and the most pressing questions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Harari argues that unlike other species, humans have thrived on their unique ability to construct and believe in shared stories, which has underpinned the formation of societies, governments, and laws. However, this same capability has led to wars, inequality, and exploitation. “Humans don't fight over territory and food,” Harari tells Bremmer. They fight over imaginary stories in their minds."
Harari and Ian discuss the current global crises, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as moments where humanity's collaborative superpower appears to falter. On the Ukraine war, he says that the implications of a Russian victory would spell the end of the global order as we know it. "We could already be in the midst of World War III that started on the 24th of February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and we just don't know it yet."
They discuss AI's emerging role in creating and disseminating stories, which represents a new frontier. Harari warns that AI could eventually dominate the world's narratives, making democracy untenable and posing unprecedented challenges to both autocracies and democracies alike. "For the first time in history, we are losing power as a species at a very rapid pace, and similarly, we are also losing control of the stories that we believe."
He also specifically addresses the critical situation in Israel, criticizing government attempts to undermine democratic institutions and pointing to an ideological battle that risks altering the essence of Judaism and Israeli identity. Harari also stresses the importance of reconciling support for Palestinian rights with the defense of Israel's existence, challenging the narrative that these positions are inherently contradictory.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Modern antisemitism on the rise ›
- The surprising history of disaster ›
- Why do Black people feel "erased" from American history? ›
- Why human beings are so easily fooled by AI, psychologist Steven Pinker explains ›
- Steven Pinker shares his "relentless optimism" about human progress ›
- From CRISPR to cloning: The science of new humans ›
- Yuval Noah Harari: Netanyahu's 'Deep State' fears enabled Oct 7 attack ›
- Israel, Hamas and US in impasse over cease-fire deal - GZERO Media ›
Yuval Noah Harari: Netanyahu's 'Deep State' fears enabled Oct 7 attack
Author and historian Yuval Noah Harari believes that the Israeli government's policies under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allowed for Hamas’ Oct 7 attack to be as deadly as it was. He points specifically to Netanyahu's efforts to undermine the judiciary and other democratic institutions.
“He was trying to systematically destroy the institutions of Israeli democracy,” Harari tells Ian Bremmer in a live interview at the 92nd Street Y in New York City. He links these domestic political maneuvers to the failure to heed warnings from military and intelligence services about external threats leading up to October 7, arguing that this negligence was influenced by conspiracy theories about a so-called “deep state.”
The problem, Harari says, goes deeper than Netanyahu. He talks about the ideological infighting within the Israeli government as a battle for the country's soul and for Judaism itself. He contrasts the principles of Zionism with those of a rising messianic movement that espouses Jewish supremacy, warning of the dire implications should this faction's vision of a deeply stratified society. “This will change the very meaning of Judaism all over the world.”
So what kind of outcome could both Israelis and Palestinians live with? Harari advocates for defending Israel's right to exist while also ensuring Palestinian rights. He rejects the notion that these positions are mutually exclusive, arguing for a future where both Israelis and Palestinians can live dignified lives within their homelands. “Just because you are in favor of the rights of Palestinians doesn’t mean you have to be also in favor of destroying Israel completely.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
- How Netanyahu used Hamas to avoid talks of a two-state solution ›
- Netanyahu’s failed Gaza strategy ›
- Why the Israel-Hamas war is so divisive ›
- Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war ›
- Israel, Hamas and US in impasse over cease-fire deal - GZERO Media ›
- Why the world isn't fair: Yuval Noah Harari on AI, Ukraine, and Gaza - GZERO Media ›
- Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers - GZERO Media ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Netanyahu hostage to far-right coalition, says author Friedman - GZERO Media ›
- Why Israel's Netanyahu continues to antagonize Biden on Gaza - GZERO Media ›
- Israel-Hamas war: Netanyahu hostage to far-right coalition, says author Friedman - GZERO Media ›
- What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like? - GZERO Media ›
After Super Tuesday, US elections inch closer to Biden vs. Trump redux
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Any surprises from Super Tuesday
Yeah, I was surprised that Nikki Haley got Vermont. Honestly, I thought that she'd get swept by Trump. Though Vermont is a tiny, tiny little state. It still counts, but she's still out. She's, of course, suspended her campaign and that is not a surprise. And Biden beat undecided and Dean Phillips, who is basically the equivalent of undecided, pretty decisively in all of his states. So, yes, unless something happens health-wise to either of the candidates over the next months, it is Biden, and it is Trump, and that is it. And we've known that for a good long while now. It doesn't feel so super. It's not what everybody wants, but we still have months and months and months in the world's longest and most expensive election in the world. Yet one more reason why the United States is the most powerful and super dysfunctional democracy.
Is the Red Sea turning into a Houthi stronghold?
I wouldn't say that the Houthis are significantly degraded in their military capabilities by the United States and the UK over the last month now. They are not getting the same level of support, intelligence wise, from the Iranians that they were in previous months. So they are still getting the weapons. Some of those weapons are getting interdicted by the United States and allies. But they are still engaging in strikes in the Red Sea. And that, of course, is making it harder for ships to get through. And it's increasing costs on commodities and it's disrupting supply chains. That's where we are. That's likely to continue. But again, I wouldn't call it a stronghold. The one country that's really hurt in all of this is Sudan, which is experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis in the world right now. And it's made worse by the fact that you can't get any aid through the Red Sea because the Houthis are blocking it.
As the Israel-Hamas war nears the five-month mark, is a cease-fire likely?
Well, Hamas is demanding a permanent cease-fire as part of the terms of getting an agreement with Israel that is absolutely not on the table. Can we get a short-term cease-fire, a six-week cease-fire? I am still optimistic, but I'm telling you, it is getting more challenging. And if Netanyahu is really angry at Benny Gantz for being more solicitous with the Americans and the Brits, and traveling to those countries to engage in diplomacy when Netanyahu told him not to go and when he told the Israeli embassy in those countries not to support him, the potential that you end up not getting a deal because of the Israeli dysfunction in their governance and Hamas continuing to kick the can and put ideas on the table that are absolutely unacceptable to the Israelis, that makes it harder. So I do think that the potential is all falls apart, is creeping up. But if you make me bet by next week, I still think on balance we get a deal. Anyway, let's be hopeful for that.
US-Iran tensions complicate Biden's Middle East strategy
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. We are still very much focused on the Middle East. That is the top priority. Tony Blinken, Secretary of State, for his fifth trip to the Gulf since October 7th, those horrible terrorist attacks, Ukraine very far down the priority list compared to the engagement the Middle East is presently getting. It certainly feels that way. But that's what we're focusing on.
And the big issue is the American military response to that nightmare scenario that came to pass when US servicemen and women, dozens injured, three killed in Iranian proxy attacks on the Jordan-Syria border. The United States had to respond militarily, did respond militarily, but they also did not want to precipitate an Iranian war with the United States. So they tried to have their way on both sides of the equation and probably end up getting nothing that they want. What do I mean by that? Well, the United States did attack direct Iranian military assets, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military capabilities on the ground in Syria and Iraq, but also telegraphed that very clearly, very publicly, for about five days before they started the attacks, which meant that proxy leaders and most importantly, Iranian leaders were able to get out of Dodge and potentially protect the most sensitive equipment information from those US strikes.
That meant that the Americans got to show that they would take significant military action, but also did not precipitate an Iranian military response. We aren't going to see war right now between the US and Iran, but we also aren't going to see deterrence by the Iranian proxies or by the Iranians in continuing to engage in strikes in civilian tanker traffic through the Red Sea or against Americans on the ground in the region.
Now, if it doesn't resolve any of that conflict that continues to get worse, what does it resolve? Well, it continues to give the Americans a little bit of time, maybe to get a temporary cease-fire in Gaza. That's really where the effort is right now, particularly being engaged with Qatar in coordinating with the Israelis and with Hamas. The hope is that in the next week or two, you get a month of committed cease-fire from the Israelis and you get large numbers of remaining hostages being held by Hamas released to Israel.
Now, Prime Minister Netanyahu and the war cabinet are nowhere close to succeeding in their war on the ground against Hamas. And that means they have months minimum before they're willing to think about wrapping up that conflict, irrespective of all the international pressure. So what does a month accomplish? While the hope is that a month accomplishes movement towards a Saudi-Israel peace deal where the Americans would proactively recognize a Palestinian state together with the UK and others. The Israeli war cabinet would outline the potential for such a political recognition while security would be provided by somebody else. Don't have to have your own security forces to have your own state, and nobody says that's a requirement. Would it be provided by the Israelis? Well, that wouldn't be acceptable, though. They could have a buffer zone perhaps, would need to be worked out with the Gulf allies, with Egypt, with Jordan. Can that be done in a month? In terms of sticking the landing, that's about the highest degree of difficulty you'd see in gymnastics. And certainly I would take the under in terms of expectations of a peace deal here.
But does Biden feel like he has any better alternatives at this point? And the answer to that is no. Meanwhile, he's being squeezed by the Republicans at home who are pushing for more aid for Israel, not linked to anything. And he's getting squeezed by the progressives that are his own Democratic supporters that are more aligned towards the Palestinians than they are Israel. This is feeling like a no win situation for Biden. And so if he can get a cease-fire and get a few weeks, engage diplomatically, see what shakes loose. Still at the end of the day, there are far more actors around this war, both in Gaza and also more broadly in the Middle East, that are interested in finding ways not to have a lasting cease fire than to see a peace agreement work out. That's true certainly for Hamas. It's true certainly for Netanyahu. It's also true for the Iranian government and the so-called axis of resistance.
And for all of those reasons, I fear that we are still heading for further escalation as opposed to a window that would end this war. Really tough for Biden in an election year, really tough for those in the Middle East living with this at any time.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.