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Trump brokers peace: Hostages freed and guns fall silent in Gaza
A landmark moment in the Middle East: All 20 remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas have been released, and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been signed—brokered by President Trump.
Ian Bremmer calls it “a big win” for the president. “He had leverage, and he used it,” Ian says. “It’s much better to say your president succeeded than failed—and this is a success.”
The deal, backed by Egypt, Turkey, and Gulf states, halts two years of fighting. But as Ian notes, “lasting peace will depend on reconstruction, governance, and whether both sides can hold to their word.”
America’s short-term wins vs. long-term risks
The US economy looks unstoppable, with booming markets, surging productivity, and foreign investment pouring in. In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer warns that short-term success may hide long-term dangers.
“I’m worried about immigration, education, and energy,” he says.
From deterring skilled immigrants to undermining world-class universities and lagging behind China on post-carbon energy, the US risks trading future competitiveness for temporary gains.
“The United States remains the most powerful country in the world,” Ian notes, “but that power comes from its economy and military, not its political system. And that’s a long-term problem.”
Israel is facing real consequences over Gaza annexation plans
“The UAE saying they’d leave the Abraham accords … that’s a consequence that matters,” Ian notes.
President Trump has also called West Bank annexation a “red line,” while European nations weigh boycotts, visa restrictions, and other steps that could leave Israelis feeling isolated. All this has the potential to undermine Netanyahu’s upcoming election chances.
“The elections won’t be about a Palestinian state, but they might be about Israel’s isolation.”
Charlie Kirk's assassination will make things worse in the US
In the latest episode of Quick Take, Ian Bremmer denounces the assassination of Charlie Kirk, cautioning that it will deepen America’s political dysfunction rather than unite the country.
Ian says this is a stress test for an already fragile political system and that political violence is not a solution.
“If you think freedom of speech and the provision of justice is for you and not those you disagree with, you need to change,” says Ian. “Americans must learn from people we disagree with, not demonize them.”
Warning about the trend of violence for attention, Ian also explains the US can still learn about representative democracy, civil society, respect, compassion, and leadership from its counterparts. And the “only people who benefit are the ones that want to destroy the American system, those that want to use the violence to create a one-party system.”
Is American capitalism still capitalism?
Ian explains why “free market capitalism” looks very different today than in decades past. Recent news that the US government is taking a 10% equity stake in Intel is just one example of Washington moving toward a more state-driven economic model.
While government subsidies for strategic industries like semiconductors may make sense, Ian warns that other industrial policies, like trying to re-shore large-scale manufacturing, risk being backward looking. Ian also argues that much of what passes for capitalism in the US is really oligarchy: corporations using lobbying to secure entrenched advantages and offloading the costs of their business models onto the public.
Meanwhile, China has thrived with state capitalism for 50 years, and the US is increasingly trying to compete by playing the same game. But Ian raises concerns that America’s short political cycles and policy whiplash make it poorly suited for long-term state-led planning, and that the benefits often flow disproportionately to the wealthy.
The bottom line: Ian believes the US needs more capitalism, not less, but it has to be, “capitalism that runs in a competitive environment, where no one gets to capture the political process, and where losses are seen as responsibilities of corporations, just as profits are.”
What Zohran Mamdani’s win really signals for US politics
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian digs into the surprise Democratic primary victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York’s mayoral race and why it might be “an early signal of something much bigger in the United States.”
Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, ran on a platform of $30 minimum wage, state-run groceries, and taxing billionaires. “I don’t think we should have billionaires,” Mamdani told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on June 29th. Ian unpacks why that kind of economic populism is gaining steam.“
Socialists can’t beat capitalists,” Ian says, “but they can beat kleptocrats.” He warns that both right- and left-wing populism are being fueled by a growing sense that the American system is rigged. As AI begins threatening white-collar jobs, that discontent could spread to entirely new demographics, creating real risk for political and business elites.
“This isn't a mainstream position,” Ian notes. “But it's a hell of a lane for economic populists.”
Iran looks to negotiate ceasefire
As the Israel-Iran war intensifies, Iran is seeking an urgent ceasefire, facing overwhelming Israeli military air superiority.
"They have virtually no capacity to strike back,” says Ian Bremmer in today’s Quick Take. Iran has reportedly expended 20% of its ballistic missiles, with minimal damage inflicted, while Israel has crippled large parts of Iran’s military infrastructure and nuclear program.
The US also looms large, as Ian says, “Trump is basically saying, ‘We’re not entering the war, but we will if you don’t engage in negotiations.’” A US-backed strike on Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant remains a real threat if talks stall.
Despite widespread global condemnation of Israeli strikes, even Iran’s allies like Russia are not stepping in militarily. “Regime survival is the priority now,” Ian warns, as internal dissent grows within Iran’s leadership. But with the risk of irrational escalation rising, Ian adds: “That’s the fog of war stuff … far more likely as this war is going on.”
Israel strikes Iran: Could the US and Gulf States be pulled in?
Tensions in the Middle East escalate as Israel launches a surprise military strike against Iran, prompting international concern and speculation about broader conflict.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer calls Israel’s strike on Iran “a huge success for the Israelis” and a significant blow to Iran’s regional influence. “A fair amount of Iran’s top military leadership has been decapitated by Israel,” he notes. While the US did not take part directly, Ian says President Donald Trump “gave at very least, a blinking yellow light, if not a direct green.” He warns of three high-risk responses Iran may pursue: a push for nuclear weapons, disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, or a harsh domestic crackdown. All are high-risk and carry the potential to draw the US and Gulf states into deeper conflict.