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Ukrainian service members attend a military exercises during drills at a training ground, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, November 22, 2024.
Russia and Ukraine trade larger and larger blows
Russia has conducted as many as 1,500 strikes on targets in Ukraine in the past two days, according to Kyiv. Ukraine, meanwhile, reportedly launched a fresh volley of US-made long-range ATACMS missiles at Russia, while claiming also to have struck a Russian oil depot with drones.
The ATACMS strike was reportedly on an air base in the Russian border region of Kursk, parts of which have been occupied by Ukrainian troops since August. Since then, Moscow has invited North Korean troops to help it push back the Ukrainians.
Putin, whose forces have been slowly gaining ground in eastern Ukraine for months, had warned that ATACMS strikes would be a significant escalation of the conflict. Last week, in response to their use, he loosened Russia’s nuclear use doctrine and fired into Ukraine a new advanced missile capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
All of this comes as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House. Trump has questioned American support for Ukraine and pledged to end the conflict within “24 hours.” No one is sure what that will entail, but both sides are now in a last-minute frenzy to gain as much territory – and deterrent capacity – as they can before Trump takes office.
Putin's strategy in Ukraine ahead of Trump's return
Putin has been warning them not to do that. They decided they were going to, the Russian response has been to formally change their nuclear doctrine so that they would be considered to be in a state of war legally against any country that allowed Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia. In other words, essentially, Russia is claiming that they're now at war with France, with the UK, with the United States. And also, the Russians used a medium range missile hypersonic nuclear capable directly against the Ukrainian target in Dnipro.
In other words, what we're seeing from Putin is, "I'm showing you what you're doing is moving towards World War III, and that's how I'm responding." Does that mean that Putin is actually escalating towards direct war with NATO allies? The answer to that is no. He wasn't doing that when he was losing the battle in Ukraine in the early months. He's certainly not doing it now that he's winning.
And he is winning. He has more troops on the front lines, including those from North Korea, those from Yemen, those that he's getting from other countries. Also, he's taking more territory on the ground in Ukraine at a faster pace now, more significant amounts of territory in Southeast Ukraine than at any point since the opening months of the war. Plus Trump is President-elect. Trump has said, "I want to end this war." And he is coming in just in a couple of months.
So what Putin is doing is not threatening World War III. He's instead showing off just how bad this Biden policy is, this existing NATO policy is. He's making it easier for Trump to pivot away and say, "I'm the peacemaker. We were heading towards World War III, this horrible escalation. I'm the guy that got the great deal done and look how brilliant I am." Putin is facilitating that.
Now, of course, to make that happen Trump still has to give Putin something that he wants. He has to give an outcome that is acceptable to Putin. And Putin's made clear, at least thus far, that he's not going to give up any territory that he has. That he's not prepared to accept that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. He's also said that Ukraine can't continue to have a functional armed forces which is something that would be completely unacceptable to Ukraine.
The devil's going to be in the details here. There clearly is an opportunity for Trump to end the war. He's promised he's going to end the war, and I think he can. I think he can create a ceasefire. The Ukrainian leadership has already made clear that they are supportive of ending the war, but they're not just going to listen. There has to be a back and forth conversation with the Americans. Seeing what it is that Trump is prepared to put forward, and whether or not the Russians are capable of accepting it, are willing to accept it. Even though it will look like a win for Russia compared to where they would've been under Biden, under Harris, or at any other point in the last couple of years.
Still, if you are Putin, there is an open question. You're taking land right now. The Ukrainians don't have the people to continue to put up a strong defense. Why wouldn't you delay this out for another three, another six months? Take more land. Try to get all the territory that you have formally annexed over the course of the war. Why not settle the war on your terms? A lot easier to do if you're winning than losing. And the question there will be to what extent Trump is willing to cause material punishment to Putin if he doesn't say yes.
And that's an open question. Trump historically has been willing to take easy wins that don't necessarily play well over the long term. Look at Afghanistan. He wanted to get the Americans out. He cut a deal with the Taliban. It was a deal that was clearly very advantageous from a military and from a governance perspective for the Taliban than it was for the United States. He cut that despite the fact that the allies were not supportive or coordinating. That undermined the US deeply. Biden then continued with that plan. And it was one of the biggest losses that the US has experienced over the last four years.
Now, that of course, was a loss that ultimately fell on Biden. This would be a loss that would ultimately fall on Trump. And so does he want to risk that? That's a very interesting question. And of course, you also have to look at Trump's staff because he can make a phone call with Zelensky and with Putin, but ultimately, it is the secretary of state, the national security advisor and others that are going to have to work out the details of that agreement. And those people, at least thus far, are not people that are oriented towards giving away the store to Putin. They're people-oriented towards mistrust of Putin, towards a hard line against the Russians, towards support of Ukraine.
I am thinking here that number one, there's a reasonably high chance that Trump can get the win that he wants, but number two, this isn't likely to be a walk in the park for the Russian president. The Europeans need to play here as well. And what will be important, there's been a few formulated conversations thus far between President-elect Trump and some of the European leaders.
They haven't gone very far, but they've also not blown up the bilateral relationships. Their ability to work with Trump advisors on Trump, and on a greater coordination of what an ultimate solution or settlement of the Russian-Ukraine war would be, will make a dramatic difference as to what extent this is sustainable. To what extent this leads to not only Ukraine that can continue to defend itself and the territory that it is left with, but also can integrate into Europe, can be politically successful as a democracy over time. And that NATO will stay strong and stay together and stay aligned with the United States because they don't have another choice. There is no autonomous European military capacity. It's either NATO sticks together or it fragments.
Those are all things that we're going to watch very carefully over the course of the next couple months. But for now, an escalatory period. And it's all performative and it's all oriented towards what happens when Trump becomes president. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is embraced by US President Joe Biden in the Oval Office back in September 2023.
Biden green-lights long-range missiles, Russia blasts Ukraine
US President Joe Biden reversed course on Sunday and authorized Ukraine to use US-made long-range ATACMS missiles for limited strikes inside Russia, in response to North Korea’s deployment of thousands of troops to aid Moscow. While hoping to deter Pyongyang from deeper involvement, Biden also wants to bolster Ukraine’s offensive capability before President-elect Donald Trump takes office and makes good on his pledge to cut American aid to Kyiv.
How might Moscow respond? According to Eurasia analyst Alex Brideau, Russian President Vladimir Putin may respond in kind. “Putin indicated over the summer that he would arm US adversaries in response to Western weapons being used on Russian territory. There have been subsequent reports this fall that Russia has offered some support to Houthis attacking shipping in the Red Sea,” Brideau says.
But if the missiles are used to fire deep into Russian territory, the Kremlin warned early Monday that it would see this as an attack from the US, not Ukraine, and said Biden was adding “oil to the fire” with this policy reversal.
Winter warning. Biden’s announcement also follows Russia’s launching of 120 missiles and 90 drones this weekend, its most intense offensive since September. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure across the country ahead of the cold winter months. While Ukrainian forces neutralized 144 of the projectiles, thermal energy plants suffered “significant damage,” resulting in emergency blackouts, and at least two people were killed and several others were injured, including two children. Although Ukraine’s nuclear plants were not directly hit, key electrical substations were. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, only two of Ukraine’s nine reactors are now operating at full capacity.
A response to Scholz? The Russian strikes come two days after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called President Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years. Though Scholz urged Putin to withdraw his troops, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky slammed the call for opening a “Pandora’s box” that could undermine efforts to isolate Moscow.Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024.
“Tough week” ahead after Iranian missile strikes on Israel
Iran on Tuesday night launched a massive wave of ballistic missiles at Israel, in apparent retaliation for Israel’s recent devastating strikes against Iran-backed proxies across the region.
Most of the more than 180 missiles were shot down by Israeli and US systems, and as of this writing, no deaths were reported. The attack, coming just hours after Israel began a ground invasion of Lebanon, has raised acute fears of a widening war between Israel and Iran.
The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting to discuss the matter on Wednesday morning. Permanent members Russia and China are close with Iran, while the US, which backs Israel, earlier warned Tehran of “severe consequences” for any strikes.
This is the second time Iran has launched an attack like this. The first, in April, was a drone and cruise missile attack, which was largely repulsed in a similar fashion. The ballistic missiles used in this week’s wave travel faster, with less warning time.
The ball is in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s court again. Iran seemed to signal that it didn’t want further escalation, tweeting that its airstrike operation was complete after an hour or so. But late Tuesday, Netanyahu said Iran had “made a big mistake,” vowing that Tehran “would pay for it.”
Netanyahu, rebounding in the polls, is eager to erase the stain of Oct. 7, 2023, and keen to seize the moment for a deathblow against what he calls “Iran’s Axis of Evil.” The fact that Iran’s ballistic barrages have hardly scratched Israel may only embolden him.
“Iran took a shot at Israel today,” says Cliff Kupchan, head of research at Eurasia Group and a longtime Iran-watcher, “that was a very dangerous move.”
“Israel is in a period of ‘maximum Bibi,’ a politically strong and hubris-filled Netanyahu will hit back hard. It’s going to be a tough week for geopolitics.”
Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sails through the Miyako Strait near Okinawa on its way to the Pacific in this handout photo taken by Japan Self-Defense Forces and released by the Joint Staff Office of the Defense Ministry of Japan on April 4, 2021.
Japan tells China to cool it with maritime incursions
Tokyo has shared “serious concerns” with Beijing after a Chinese aircraft carrier traversed a section of the sea within Japan’s contiguous waters for the first time on Wednesday. This took place between the islands of Yonaguni and Iriomote, off Taiwan’s east coast. Owing to Yonaguni’s proximity to Taiwan, smaller Chinese vessels conduct regular drills and patrols in its vicinity.
Chinese incursions into Japanese waters are common, with hundreds of incidents every year. Japan is most concerned, however, by maneuvering near the Senkaku Islands, which China also claims. There are intrusions around that archipelago almost daily.
To beef up its own position in the conflict, Tokyo has embarked on military reform and diplomatic strengthening of ties with other democracies in the region. This, says David Boling, Eurasia Group’s director for Japan, is to remind China that “You may be bigger than us, but we’ve got more friends.” Tokyo is also in talks with the US to host a deployment of intermediate-range missiles that China would hate to see deployed so close to the mainland. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs addressed the missiles in a press conference on Wednesday, the same day that the carrier made its close transit.
Japan is in the middle of its own election campaign for the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, who will then replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. All the likely winners take strong stances on China deterrence and are hoping for backup from whoever wins the White House in November.
“One of the things that is always at the top of their minds when a new US president comes in is an assurance that the security agreement between the US and Japan extends to the Senkaku Islands,” says Boling.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is accompanied by U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink as he prepares to depart the train station in Kyiv, Ukraine, September 11, 2024.
Will the US let Ukraine use long-range missiles against Russia?
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy suggested during a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday that their governments might reconsider prohibitions on letting Ukraine use Western weapons to hit targets inside Russia.
Until now, the US and UK have refused Ukraine’s requests, because of concerns about escalating the war with a nuclear-armed Russia.
But Lammy said recent reports of Russia acquiring ballistic missiles from Iran “clearly change the debate,” while Blinken suggested Washington might be more flexible too, saying the US has “adjusted and adapted as needs have changed.” US President Joe Biden on Tuesday said his administration was “working that out” when asked about a policy change.
In addition, the US this week alleged for the first time that China has provided direct support for Russia’s “war machine,” while Lammy urged China “not to throw their lot in” with Russia and other “renegades.”
These discussions all come as Russia continues to announce gains in eastern Ukraine, even as Ukrainian forces continue to hold territory in Russia’s Kursk region, where Moscow has so far failed to drive them out.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday urged his Western allies to make “strong decisions.” Will they?A training of the fire division, guided by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (not pictured), is held in North Korea, March 18, 2024, in this picture released on March 19, 2024, by the Korean Central News Agency.
Hard Numbers: Kim Jong Un takes aim, Pakistan launches deadly airstrikes, Sunak’s asylum-seeking plan proves costly, BOJ raises rates, Death toll rises in Haiti
186: Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: On Monday, North Korea responded to a visit to South Korea by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken by firing short-range ballistic missiles from Pyongyang an estimated 186 miles into the Sea of Japan. North Korea’s military has recently staged military maneuvers in response to annual US-South Korean joint drills.
8: Pakistan launched airstrikes on Monday on suspected hideouts of members of the Pakistani Taliban inside neighboring Afghanistan. Tensions are rising between Pakistan’s military and the Afghan Taliban, which claimed the attacks killed at least eight people.
292,000: A new report from the Institute for Public Policy Research argues that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s plan to move asylum-seekers from the UK to Rwanda while their claims are evaluated could cost the British taxpayer $292,000 per person. Compare that with about 70,000 per person if migrants were allowed to remain in the UK during that period.
317: The Bank of Japan ended eight years of negative interest rates on Tuesday, raising the interest rate from -0.1% to 0%-0.1%, its first hike in 17 years. The historic move, which shifts the focus away from reflating growth with monetary stimulus, follows significant wage increases by Japan’s major corporations and a rise in consumer prices. The BOJ does not anticipate further increases in the near-term.10: At least 10 people were found dead Monday in the wealthy Petion-Ville suburb of Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital, victims of escalating gang violence amid political chaos following Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation. Homes, a bank, and a gas station were attacked, and it remains unclear who was responsible. The violence has prompted increased border security by neighbors like the Dominican Republic and evacuations of US citizens.
A woman walks past apartment blocks that were destroyed in a Russian missile strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Selydove near Avdiivka, Ukraine, February 19, 2024.
Hard numbers: Pro-Russia blogger commits suicide, UK nuclear missile test fails, Biden slashes student debt, China reaches US via Mexico
16,000: Andrey Morozov, a well-known pro-Russia military blogger, reportedly committed suicide after facing backlash from Russian propagandists for his Telegram post that said 16,000 Russian troops were killed in the battle for Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. Moscow has gone to extreme lengths to obscure the scale of Russia’s losses in the war in Ukraine, and Morozov was accused of “slandering the Russian defense ministry.” Ukraine estimates that 17,000 Russian troops were killed fighting to take Avdiivka.
2: The UK’s Trident nuclear missile misfired and crashed into the sea during a test near Florida last month, reports on Wednesday said. This was the second time in a row that a Trident missile test failed, leading to uncomfortable questions about Britain’s nuclear deterrent. But Defence Sec. Grant Shapps, who witnessed the test aboard the HMS Vanguard, attributed it to an “event-specific” anomaly and said it had “no implications for the reliability of the wider Trident missile systems and stockpiles.”
153,000: The Biden administration on Wednesday announced it’s canceling $1.2 billion in student loan debt for 153,000 people enrolled in the Saving on a Valuable Education repayment plan who have been making payments for at least a decade and borrowed $12,000 or less.
881,000: You may recall that Mexico recently overtook China as the US’ largest trade partner. But new data suggests that a big chunk of that commerce could still involve goods coming from China: In the first three quarters of last year, China sent 881,000 20-foot shipping containers full of merchandise to Mexico, up more than 30% over the previous year, hitting a record high. Experts believe some Chinese companies are skirting Trump-era tariffs by routing exports through Mexico, which has a free trade deal with the US.