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John Haltiwanger
John Haltiwanger is a Senior Writer at GZERO Media, covering all things geopolitics. John previously reported for Business Insider and Newsweek. He's covered topics ranging from wars to US elections, reporting everywhere from Trump campaign rallies to the Poland-Ukraine border. John has a BA in History from St. Mary's College of Maryland and an MSc in International Relations from the University of Glasgow. When he's not writing about international politics, John is likely searching for the best slice of pizza in Brooklyn, playing/watching soccer, or hanging out with his hyperactive Goldendoodle named Indy.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Judge Amy Coney Barrett after she was sworn in as an associate justice of the U.S. Supreme Court on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, U.S. October 26, 2020.
Should a former president be held accountable for crimes committed while in office? That was the basic, yet incredibly weighty, question before the Supreme Court on Thursday when it began hearing oral arguments in a case related to former President Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
Trump, who doesn’t want to face trial in the federal Jan. 6 case against him before his expected rematch with President Joe Biden on Election Day, has declared that presidents should have absolute immunity. He’s effectively argued that presidents should be above the law.
What happened? Some of the conservative justices (three of whom were appointed by Trump) expressed concern that allowing former presidents to be criminally prosecuted could present a burden to future commanders-in-chief. They seemed skeptical of Trump’s sweeping claims but appeared open to the idea that presidents should have immunity for some actions. There was a great deal of focus on whether a distinction should be established between official acts and private behavior.
Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump appointee, emphasized that the court was “writing a rule for the ages.” But Justice Amy Coney Barrett, another Trump appointee, agreed with the notion that the ex-president’s legal team was pushing a “radical” idea on presidential immunity.
Meanwhile, liberal justices worried that if the court ruled in Trump’s favor, it could open the door for future presidents to commit crimes. “If there’s no threat of criminal prosecution, what prevents the president from just doing whatever he wants?” asked Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.
TLDR: The court might rule that presidents should be granted some, but not absolute, immunity from criminal prosecution. This means the case could be kicked back down to the lower courts.
What’s next? Trump’s Jan. 6 trial was postponed to await the court’s ruling, which could come anytime between now and the end of June. Whether that trial occurs before voters go to the polls in November will depend on the timing and nature of the court’s final ruling.
A Palestinian woman inspects a house that was destroyed after an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, April 24, 2024.
As the World Food Programme warns that Gaza is getting closer to famine by the day, US troops are set to begin constructing a floating pier off the northern coast of the enclave to increase the flow of desperately needed aid. The project is expected to be done by early May.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to lay the groundwork for an invasion of Rafah, the southern Gaza city where over a million Palestinians are sheltering. Israel has pummeled Rafah with airstrikes in recent days, and the Israeli military is gathering tanks and armored vehicles near the southern Gaza border ahead of the expected operation.
The Israeli government, which says Rafah is the last Hamas stronghold in Gaza, has rebuffed international opposition to a ground offensive. Israel also says it’s taking steps to help evacuate civilians before invading, and satellite images suggest
Months of unsuccessful efforts to secure a new truce in the war have kept the door open for a Rafah operation. On Wednesday, a top Hamas official said the militant group would lay down its arms if Israel accepted an independent Palestinian state with pre-1967 borders — but there’s virtually no chance of that happening, particularly given the current Israeli government firmly opposes Palestinian statehood.
For now, all eyes are on Rafah. “We are afraid of what will happen in Rafah. The level of alert is very high,” Ibrahim Khraishi, the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations, said Thursday.
Former US President Donald Trump waits for the start of proceedings in Manhattan criminal court, Tuesday, April 23, 2024, in New York.
The US Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments on Thursday over whether former President Donald Trump is immune from criminal prosecution over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results (spoiler alert: He lost to Joe Biden).
Trump has effectively argued that he should be off the hook for anything he did while in office. The ex-president faces four felony counts in relation to his push to undo Biden’s victory, including conspiracy to defraud the US and obstruction of an official proceeding.
What’s at stake? A lot! This is novel territory for the Supreme Court, given Trump is the first former president in US history to face criminal charges.
The court’s ruling will have major implications for the rule of law in the US and the office of the presidency, with the potential to deal a major blow to the system of checks and balances designed to restrain each branch of the government. That said, legal experts are skeptical the court will fully concur with Trump’s broad assessment that presidents have absolute immunity. Lower courts have already rejected Trump’s immunity claims.
The high court’s decision could also impact whether Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, stands trial in the federal Jan. 6 case in Washington before Election Day – something Trump is eager to avoid. A trial date was originally scheduled for March 4 but was delayed to await the Supreme Court ruling, which is expected to be released by July.
A broken ethernet cable is seen in front of a US flag and TikTok logo.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed a law that could see TikTok banned nationwide unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, sells the popular app within a year. The law was motivated by national security concerns.
TikTok promptly vowed to challenge the “unconstitutional” law in court, saying it would “silence” millions of Americans – setting the stage for a battle over whether the law violates First Amendment rights.
Expect delays. Eurasia Group’s US Director Clayton Allen is skeptical that such legal challenges will be successful, but they will still likely delay “any action well into 2025, putting the onus – potentially – on a second Trump administration.”
Though Donald Trump moved to ban TiikTok while he was in office, the former president is now attacking Biden over the law and calling for “young people” to remember the move on Election Day.
Notably, Biden’s campaign says it plans to continue using TikTok to reach younger voters.
What will China do? China expects delays in the process but is likely to prohibit a sale if it comes to it, according to Eurasia Group, our parent company. Beijing is unlikely to respond with a tit-for-tat approach targeting American companies and will instead focus on building a fortress economy that’s insulated from US containment efforts.
Former President Donald Trump leaves Manhattan Supreme Court on the 6th day of the hush money trial against him on April 23, 2024.
The judge presiding over Donald Trump’s “hush money” criminal trial heard arguments on Tuesday over allegations that the former president had violated a gag order. Rather than ruling, Judge Juan Merchan delayed his decision.
Prosecutors say Trump has repeatedly violated the order with social media posts criticizing witnesses, court officials, and their families. Trump, for example, has referred to his former lawyer Michael Cohen and porn star Stormy Daniels, key witnesses, as “sleaze bags.”
But defense lawyer Todd Blanche argued that the posts didn’t violate the gag order and that Trump was simply using social media to respond to “political attacks.”
Merchangrew impatient as Blanche struggled to point to specific posts that Trump was reacting to, warning the attorney he was “losing all credibility with the court.”
What’s next? Prosecutors are requesting that Trump be fined $10,000, but Merchan, who didn’t seem convinced by the defense team’s case, postponed his ruling until a later (unspecified) date.
Trump sounds off. After Tuesday’s hearing on the gag order, Trump complained on Truth Social that he was facing a “kangaroo court.” He also said the order was unconstitutional and called for Merchan to recuse himself.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia, April 22, 2024.
Armenia and Azerbaijan, historic rivals that have fought several wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union, are finally moving toward a peace settlement.
In a significant concession to Baku, Armenia said late last week it would hand over several border villages it’s controlled since the 1990s. “This is one more positive step toward a broader peace deal likely getting signed before the end of this year,” says Tinatin Japaridze, an expert on the region at Eurasia Group.
But Yerevan also didn’t have much of a choice. Armenia lost much of its leverage last September when Azerbaijan regained full control of the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region — a historically contested enclave that the two countries repeatedly fought over.
This new development is also just one piece of the puzzle and “definitely not the end of the saga,” Japaridze says, as other territorial disputes remain. Not to mention, the government in Armenia is already facing domestic pushback over this new border deal. And even if Baku signs a broader peace agreement, there’s no guarantee that it won’t take military action against Armenia in the future.
Along these lines, getting a final peace deal across the finish line and making sure it sticks will likely require the help of a third party. But in a break from the past, it seems that Russia is less likely to play this role.
Declining Russian influence For years, Armenia, a former Soviet republic, looked to Russia as a key partner. But Armenia felt abandoned by Moscow as it did little to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing Nagorno-Karabakh. Yerevan is increasingly turning to the West in this new era, as Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus region dwindles while its attention is focused on the war in Ukraine and problems at home.
“Russia is visibly losing some of the clout that it had had after the collapse of the Soviet Union,” says Japaridze. This could provide an opportunity for the EU or Washington to swoop in and boost their influence in the region, though it’s too early to tell.
But Russia is also unlikely to stand on the sidelines if it sees Western adversaries garnering closer ties in its historic neighborhood.
“Armenia is at the top of the list in terms of Moscow maintaining its influence in the South Caucasus. And I think it's an important one for them to have to continue to stay engaged with. But, in terms of the influence, it is certainly dwindling,” says Japaridze.
Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media after the first day of opening statements in his trial at Manhattan Criminal Court for falsifying documents related to hush money payments, in New York, NY, on Monday, April 22, 2024.
On Monday, the opening statements were delivered in Donald Trump’s historic “hush money” criminal trial in New York City. Trump is accused of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to protect his 2016 presidential campaign.
What the prosecution said: Prosecutor Matthew Colangelosaid Trump “orchestrated a criminal scheme to corrupt the 2016 presidential election” and covered it up by “lying in his New York business records” repeatedly.
What Trump’s side said: Trump's attorney Todd Blanchesaid the former president is “innocent.” He also attacked the character of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer, who is poised to be a key witness for the prosecution.
First witness takes the stand: David Pecker, the ex-publisher of the National Enquirer, testified briefly on Monday and spoke about using “checkbook journalism” to pay for stories. He’s accused of killing stories that would’ve been damaging to Trump’s 2016 campaign and allegedly helped broker a deal with Daniels. Pecker is set to testify again on Tuesday.
Big picture: Trump is the first former US president to face a criminal trial. Recent polling suggests that if Trump is convicted, it could cost him at the ballot box.
The presumptive GOP presidential nominee complained outside the courtroom that he should be campaigning instead and called the proceedings “election interference.” Trump is expected to be in court for the whole trial, which will be held every weekday except Wednesdays and is expected to last from six to eight weeks. Trump in February said he would face trial during the day, and campaign at night.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is received by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the State Guest House.
3: Germany has arrested three German nationals suspected of spying for China. They’re accused of passing along sensitive military intelligence to the Ministry of State Security, China’s powerful spy agency. The timing is awkward, given that Berlin is trying to reset trade relations with Beijing.
2.3: If you’ve had a summer vacation in Europe recently, you may have felt like it was unbearably hot – that’s no coincidence. Europe is the fastest-warming continent on the planet, according to a new report from two leading climate-monitoring organizations. Temperatures there are now 2.3° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, per the latest five-year averages, compared to 1.3° Celsius globally. But Europe’s not alone: The entire planet’s surface temperature is rising.
7 billion: President Joe Biden celebrated Earth Day on Monday by announcing $7 billion in federal grants for solar power projects in residential areas that will power over 900,000 households in low-income and disadvantaged communities and help save $8 billion in energy costs, according to EPA estimates. Biden is promoting his environmental policy as he vies to woo young voters – a crucial voting bloc – at a time when many in this demographic express concern over the economy and outrage over his approach to the war in Gaza.
110,000: Flooding in China’s Guangdong province caused by heavy rains has seen 110,000 people evacuated from their homes. The extreme weather led over a million people in the province to lose power over the weekend. Flooding from relentless rain has also devastated East Africa, affecting over 200,000 in Burundi, one of the world’s poorest countries.