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Ian Bremmer: Understanding the Israel-Hamas war
Hamas’ shock terrorist attacks cut deep into Israel's territory. That psychological trauma compounds the shock for millions of Israelis that their world-class intelligence and security forces completely missed the warning signs. That’s why comparisons with the 9/11 attacks on the US are the right analogy – Israel’s weakness was, in part, a failure of imagination, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Now to Gaza. Hamas has launched a suicidal war, and Palestinians will pay dearly for it. But why did Hamas move now? In part because of their deteriorating position: blockaded by Israel and Egypt, the economy in Gaza was terrible and getting worse. Meanwhile, the geopolitics were leaving the Palestinians behind. Israel is in its strongest geopolitical position in decades and was on the verge of signing a historic peace deal with Saudi Arabia. The severity of Israel’s expected response – a ground invasion that will result in thousands of Palestinian deaths – makes that politically untenable for the Saudis now.
Despite the international outcry at this growing Palestinian death toll, Israel will be politically unified to a degree we haven’t seen in decades. After all, Hamas carried out the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. Consequently, the recent domestic discord over Netanyahu’s efforts to weaken Israel’s courts will quiet down, at least until the security situation is brought under control. Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to form an emergency unity government with centrist opposition leader and former defense minister Benny Gantz. But make no mistake: Israeli domestic political polarization will return, and Netanyahu will have to explain the spectacular intelligence and security failures that allowed this to happen. And even if IDF forces manage to crush Hamas in Gaza, a long-term resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will remain as elusive as ever.
For now, outsiders, including the Biden administration, will work hard to keep this conflict within Israel’s borders. Iran, the crucial Hamas patron and arms supplier, has celebrated the Hamas attack, but it has been careful not to accept any direct responsibility for it. All eyes are now on Iran-backed Hezbollah forces to Israel’s north in Lebanon to be sure they don’t try to broaden the conflict. This wildfire is raging, and it will take a tremendous international effort to put it out. Many innocent people will find themselves trapped inside the inferno.
Watch the full GZERO World episode: Israel at war
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Saudi Ambassador Nayef al-Sudairi with Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki in Ramallah.
Saudi Arabia tries to reassure the Palestinians – but of what?
Saudi Arabia’s first envoy to the Palestinian Authority, Nayef al-Sudairi, is currently visiting the West Bank, where he’s meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Al-Sudairi is also expected to visit the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Jews call the Temple Mount, which would mark the first visit of a Saudi official to East Jerusalem since Israel seized the territory in a 1967 war.
Why now? Al-Sudairi, who is also Saudi’s ambassador to Jordan, comes as Riyadh and Jerusalem are reportedly inching closer toward a diplomatic normalization deal – a huge development after Israel normalized ties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco in recent years.
What do the Saudis want? While Riyadh, custodian of two of the holiest sites in Islam, is attempting to show that it remains committed to the Palestinian cause, it is more concerned about getting Washington’s assistance to build a civilian nuclear program and other security guarantees from Uncle Joe. The Biden administration says these concessions would be contingent on Saudi normalization with Israel.
The view from the Palestinian camp is that a thaw between Israel and Saudi is a betrayal of the Palestinians and a departure from the Saudis’ previous position that they wouldn’t embrace Israel until the Palestinian issue was settled. Riyadh, for its part, had previously said that this would have to include Israel's withdrawal from some areas, such as the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.
For now, there’s every indication that Riyadh is moving full steam ahead: In a rare English-language interview last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said he wants to see “a good life for the Palestinians,” but he stopped short of saying that Palestinian statehood was linked to ongoing normalization efforts with Israel.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives US President Joe Biden at the Royal Palace in Jeddah.
Are Saudi and Israel getting close to a normalization deal?
The US and Saudi Arabia have reportedly agreed on the outline of a normalization deal between Israel and the Gulf Kingdom that could take place within 9-12 months.
Though it’s unclear what the two parties have decided, it’s relevant that US officials leaked this update in an attempt to raise expectations that progress is being made.
What’s the background here? Israel has long made it clear that normalization with Saudi Arabia, including official diplomatic relations, is a key priority that would help pave the way for the Jewish State to gain legitimacy throughout the Muslim world.
As the custodian of two of Islam’s holiest sites, the epicenter of Sunni Islam, and an influential petrostate, Saudi Arabia is one of the most powerful states in the Muslim world.
While Israel and the Saudis have for decades cooperated behind closed doors – even more so in recent years due to their shared enmity of Iran – the latter has been reluctant to officialize the relationship. Riyadh has cited the Palestinian issue as the main obstacle, but the bottom line is that accepting Israel is still taboo in the Arab world.
To be sure, that all started to shift three years ago when three Arab states – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco – normalized relations with Israel under the Trump-backed Abraham Accords.
So what does everyone want? In addition to the hoped-for trickle-down effect, for Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, the Saudis abandoning their long-standing insistence that the Palestinian issue be resolved beforehand would be a symbolic and ideological victory.
Meanwhile, for the Biden administration, the deal would be a foreign policy win ahead of the 2024 election. But as foreign policy isn’t a huge electoral issue for American voters, Washington is likely more motivated by the need to create a new web of alliances in the Middle East as Russia and China seek to enlarge their respective footprints in the region. Indeed, Washington reportedly asked Riyadh to cool relations with Beijing to move things along.
What’s the Saudi angle? While normalization presents an economic opportunity, Riyadh is likely more concerned about securing from the US several concessions that have long been on its wishlist, including a bilateral NATO-like security guarantee, the go-ahead for a civilian nuclear power program and the removal of some arm sales embargos.
Here’s the catch: Bibi, a right-winger, is very popular in the Republican Party, and so Biden will likely have an easier time pitching the deal to the GOP. However, it could be harder to sell it to members of his own party, many of whom don’t think the US should give an inch to the Saudis due to their human rights record. And they aren’t very fond of Bibi Netanyahu either.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a reception at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023.
What We're Watching: Russia strikes Ukraine amid dueling wartime trips, Boris Johnson’s ‘Partygate’ showdown, Israeli settlements U-turn
After Xi-Putin summit, Moscow strikes Ukraine
Over the past few days, Vladimir Putin pulled out all the stops to entertain his "good old friend" Xi Jinping in Moscow, during what was perhaps the most geopolitically significant bilateral summit of the year so far.
Seven-course dinner — check. Insanely long red carpet at the Kremlin — check. Putin doing Xi the rare courtesy of showing up on time — check.
But beyond the pomp, ничего особенного (nothing much). The summit ended with a joint press conference featuring boilerplate statements about Sino-Russian cooperation. There was no mention of China potentially supplying arms to Russia, and no call for a ceasefire in Ukraine, although Putin did say that Xi's peace plan could be a first step toward a negotiated settlement “once the West and Kyiv are ready for it."
But then right after Xi's visit on Wednesday, the Kremlin launched fresh drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, killing at least four people in a residential area outside Kyiv.
While President Volodymyr Zelensky has so far tried to remain open to Beijing's intervention, he tweeted that "every time someone tries to hear the word 'peace' in Moscow, another order is given there for such criminal strikes."
Is Putin feeling emboldened? From Putin's perspective, a visit from Xi, who’s been something of a homebody himself since the pandemic, lets Putin show that although the US and its allies have blackballed him, he is still far from isolated globally – and that the Russia-China friendship “without limits” is an axis of power Washington has to reckon with.
We're watching to see how — or if — Beijing responds to the latest onslaught that comes on the heels of Xi's whirlwind diplomacy.
Kishida in Kyiv
All things considered, it’s not surprising that Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida went to Ukraine to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday. Kishida was the only leader of a G7 nation that hadn’t yet made the trip, and Japan is chairing the group’s summit in Hiroshima in May. But it is striking when he chose to visit and where he traveled while there.
Arriving in Kyiv on a day when Chinese President Xi Jinping was visiting Vladimir Putin in Moscow was striking. Kishida also visited a mass grave in the town of Bucha to pay respects to the Ukrainian victims of alleged Russian war crimes, offering a none-too-subtle comment on Putin’s recent indictment by the International Criminal Court.
Japan’s foreign ministry said the trip underscored Kishida’s "absolute rejection of Russia's one-sided change to the status quo by invasion and force.” It also follows last week's dramatic breakthrough in Japan’s relations with South Korea, another move signaling that, while Japan must continue to carefully balance its relations with China, Kishida will be more assertive and outspoken on foreign policy than most of Japan’s recent prime ministers.
Could this be the end for Boris Johnson?
Boris is back … in the news! On Wednesday, the former British PM will appear before the parliamentary Privileges Committee to determine whether he deliberately lied to parliament over the Partygate saga. Recap: That’s when Downing Street hosted a string of parties (including some attended by the PM) while millions of Britons were subject to strict COVID lockdowns.
What happens now? It’s up to the committee, made up of MPs from three political parties, to decide how to proceed. It could decide that Johnson didn’t mislead parliament, which is unlikely given the trail of evidence. But even if it judges that he did, punishments could vary. Best case scenario? He’s given a wrist slap. Worst case? He’s suspended from parliament.
But wait, there's more! If the suspension is for more than 10 days, it'll trigger a recall vote in Johnson's district, which only requires 10% of ballots to pass. And that in turn will be followed by a by-election for the same seat ... in which Boris can still run!
What does this mean for the Tories? The rank-and-file is divided between diehard Boris fans, who want Johnson to make another bid for the top job, and those who think he’s a political liability. Either way, it’s bad timing for PM Rishi Sunak, who is trying very hard to convince Britons that the wildly unpopular Conservative Party is more than an agent of chaos.
Israeli government’s settlement policy shift
The far-right Israeli government, a magnet for controversy in recent weeks, has just reversed a 2005 law that ordered the dismantling of four settlements in the northern West Bank.
The Israeli army will no longer have the power to forcibly remove settlers from these areas. (In 2005, former PM Ariel Sharon unilaterally disengaged from settlements in the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank in a move that right-wing ideologues deemed an injustice.)
Tuesday’s move – which the US said it was “extremely troubled” by before the State Department summoned Israel's ambassador to express its dismay – will legalize construction at these outposts, one of which had previously been deemed private Palestinian land by Israel’s High Court. Many right-wing and religious Jews believe that the West Bank is part of greater Israel, according to the Old Testament, and that Jews have a responsibility to settle on the land. Conversely, land seized by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967 is deemed occupied Palestinian territory, according to international law.
Critics say the recent government decision will lead to more violence in the West Bank and is a step towards illegal annexation.
This comes after Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich created a firestorm this week by saying “there is no such thing as a Palestinian people” while standing in front of a map of so-called greater Israel that included … Jordan. (The Hashemite Kingdom, with which Israel has enjoyed a cold peace since 1994, was not pleased.)
Amid fears that the government’s actions are endangering the Abraham Accords, a senior delegation from the United Arab Emirates is set to meet in Jerusalem with President Isaac Herzog to voice its concerns over recent events.
Iran: lynchpin in the Saudi-Israeli relationship
US President Joe Biden didn't get much from his recent trip to Saudi Arabia — other than some symbolic progress on Saudi ties with Israel.
Indeed, Biden's plane flew directly to the country from Israel, and now Israeli airlines will be allowed to overfly Saudi airspace. But is this really a big deal?
"I would describe it as [...] giving crumbs to Biden," Bernard Haykel, a Princeton University professor and expert on Saudi Arabia, tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
What would make a difference is normalizing ties with Israel — which the Saudis are not yet ready for. Haykel believes the Saudi public won't accept such a move until "something is given to the Palestinians."
Still, he expects the Israel-Saudi relationship to continue warming because, hello, Iran.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
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Biden could get Saudis to push Russia out of OPEC+
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does Biden hope to come from his trip to Saudi Arabia?
Well, first he hopes he isn't smashed by progressives in his own party after saying when he campaigned that he wanted to make Saudi Arabia into a pariah internationally. Traveling to Saudi Arabia and visiting with Mohammed bin Salman doesn't do that, but of course, $120 plus oil doesn't do that either. Look, I think it's sensible for him to go. I'm glad he's actually making the trip. In particular, he wants to see the Saudis increasing their oil production beyond present announced quotas to reduce the price. It's impacting Americans at the pump with record levels right now. He'd love to see Russia thrown out of OPEC Plus. I think that's plausible and beyond that, the possibility that Saudi Arabia and Israel would formally open diplomatic relations, an extension of the Abraham Accords which was one of the biggest accomplishments in foreign policy of the Trump administration. Biden's completely aligned with that and I think he's going to try to push on that. So, I do think there will be some direct takeaways from this trip that'll be positive for the Biden administration.
Is the bear market in the United States a prelude to a recession?
Certainly a lot of people think that. I've heard it directly from Larry Summers, I've heard it from Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF. I mean, I would say that a majority of economists out there believe that the United States is heading into a recession. Keep in mind that recessions of the United States come along fairly frequently. So it's not like it's that dramatic as long as it's narrow and it doesn't last very long, but still the mood has turned decidely negative, the level of inflation, the willingness of the Fed to go farther in raising rates and of course the impact on Biden's approval ratings, all of that in firmly fair market territory right now.
Will China's return to mass testing help combat China's COVID problem?
It certainly helps. They need a much greater level of surveillance, but the fact is you now have variants that are vastly more transmissible, infectious. They're closer to measles and that means that unless you are vaccinating everybody, and especially the older and those that are vulnerable from a health perspective, you can't prevent this disease from expanding wildly. What you have to do is make sure the people that get it, don't get really sick. I mean, we just had one bar in Beijing with 50 positive cases in one evening that clearly came from one person that showed up with COVID. That is an environment that doesn't lend itself to zero-COVID. It lends itself to, we have to live with the disease but we have to make sure we're vaccinating people, we have to make sure that we have adequate therapeutic responses. The Chinese are not where they need to be on either of those things. The disease has changed. China's response has not and that means zero-COVID is going to be with them for longer. The economic impact will last longer too.
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Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky
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Zelensky’s peace offer is a first step, not a game changer
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky says he’s ready to discuss “neutrality” for Ukraine as part of a peace deal with Russia. That’s a positive development. But even as an opening bid, this is no game changer. Here’s why…
First, Zelensky insists that “neutrality” – a promise written into Ukraine’s constitution to never join NATO – can only be approved by popular referendum. That vote, Zelensky says, can’t take place while Russian soldiers remain on Ukrainian soil. Leaving aside disputes over what counts as Ukrainian soil – Crimea? The occupied Donbas region? – Putin is highly unlikely to withdraw all Russian forces without knowing the outcome of the vote.
Second, Zelensky also insists that Ukraine could only agree to neutrality if its security is guaranteed by outside (read Western) powers. Without those security guarantees, Ukraine can’t be confident that Russia won’t just invade again in the future. But a security guarantee from Western powers is the central benefit of NATO membership, and Putin has little reason to agree to that.
Third, an offer not to join NATO in exchange for peace assumes that Putin will allow Ukraine to one day join the European Union and that Ukrainians will retain the right to make their own foreign and trade policy. Putin’s approach toward Ukraine over the past 20 years indicates that would not be acceptable to Moscow.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday there may be another obstacle to successful peace talks: Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich has said that he and Ukrainian negotiators suffered symptoms of poisoning after they met in Kyiv to discuss peace recently. Abramovich blames hardliners in Moscow who don’t want to end the war.
Finally, President Joe Biden’s comment in Poland that Putin “cannot remain in power” could persuade Russia’s president that no guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine can allow Moscow to claim victory. Not if the US still intends to cripple Russia’s economy with sanctions – and maybe force Putin out.
Zelensky’s offer might start an important conversation, but it comes nowhere near ensuring a diplomatic breakthrough.
A groundbreaking summit in the desert
This week, Israel is hosting foreign ministers from four Arab countries – Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Egypt – as well as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken for a summit focused on countering regional security threats and boosting economic cooperation. The summit, held in Sde Boker, a kibbutz in the Negev desert, is the first of its kind to take place on Israeli soil and comes after Morocco, the UAE, and Bahrain signed the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020, normalizing relations with Israel. The group, united by concern about Tehran, reiterated its opposition to the Iran nuclear deal currently being negotiated. Meanwhile, Yair Lapid, Israel’s foreign minister, said the desert gathering aimed to establish “a new regional architecture,” and later said that the summit would become a permanent fixture, highlighting that the normalization pact was not simply symbolic. In a sign of the changing regional dynamics, UAE’s chief diplomat Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan opened his remarks by condemning two recent terror attacks in Israel that killed six people. However, the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority was excluded from the summit and criticized the Arab states for turning their backs on the plight of the Palestinians.
Emergency in El Salvador
Following approval by the Salvadoran congress, President Nayib Bukele declared a state of emergency in response to a wave of gang violence that left scores dead in just two days. The small Central American state has long been plagued by powerful narcotrafficking groups, and it routinely suffers some of the highest per capita murder rates of any country in the world. The move suspends freedom of assembly and makes it easier for the police to conduct arrests and eavesdrop on suspects. The 40-year-old Bukele, a charismatic and popular political outsider with a down-to-earth style, swept to power in 2019 with a promise to rein in violence. During his first few years, he had some success, particularly during the pandemic – US authorities believe Bukele may even have negotiated a truce directly with gang leaders. But the recent surge in homicides threatens to undo all of that. Declaring a state of emergency may also raise concerns among democracy activists who see an authoritarian streak in Bukele. In 2020, he sent soldiers into the Congress to pressure lawmakers into giving him more money for, of all things, his fight against gang violence.
Elon Musk, Time Person of the Year? Naftali Bennett visits UAE
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at Naftali Bennett's first official visit to the UAE, China's response to recent US sanctions, and Elon Musk's chances at Time Person of the Year.
How did Naftali Bennett's first official visit to the UAE go?
Went extremely well. This was probably President Trump's largest and most unexpected foreign policy success, The Abraham Accords, which meant opening diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE, in addition to other countries in the region. Now we have the prime minister of Israel touching down on an official visit in the UAE, where he met with Mohammed bin Zayed, who is the defacto ruler of all of the Emirates, as well as a lot of other leaders. We're seeing more investment, more tourism, and we're also seeing more intelligence cooperation, especially around issues like Iran, where frankly, both the Arab governments and the Israelis have problems. Big question everyone's watching out for is when are the Saudis going to open up to Israel? The Saudis are really reluctant in part because they feel like that would seed too much ground to Iran on the Palestinian question, and also lead to much more pushback given a much more conservative Saudi population. The UAE is one of the most cosmopolitan populations out there, frankly.
How will China "strike back" responding to recent US sanctions?
Strike back is exactly what the Chinese government said they would do. This was right in advance to the United States announcing it before that Democracy Summit that they hosted, both of which were things that weren't clearly meant to make the Chinese happy. In particular, there were sanctions against SenseTime, which is this Chinese technology company that is involved a lot in data and surveillance, including helping the Chinese Government surveil the Uyghurs, systematic repression that's been going on against them. Look, I think that the Chinese Government clearly does not want to seriously unravel US/China investment and trade relations, especially given big challenges in China in managing zero COVID. They're going to have difficulties meeting reasonable growth targets this year and next year as a consequence of all of that. But they're not going to just sit and stand by idly when the Americans are putting sanctions on very important, indeed technologically strategic Chinese companies. I think they will be tit for tat, and I don't think the Americans are likely to have a second round of escalation as a consequence. Keep in mind that both countries also want to reduce inflation and are trying to see if they might reduce some of the tariffs that came under the Trump administration back and forth with President Xi. Even as the Chinese are escalating their sanctions in response to the United States, there will also be areas of collaboration.
Elon Musk, Time Person of the Year. Thoughts?
I think he's an enormously complicated character. There's some things that I frankly admire immensely about him, the way he's managed to think of entirely new ways of doing global business and make them a reality, both in terms of electric vehicles and supply chain to support that, as well as re-imagining private space and doing so much more effectively than people like Bezos or Richard Branson, who's really just doing high altitude tourism. That really matters. But I also think he's incredibly irresponsible in the way he talks to, engages in the public. He's very narrow in his expertise and interest, which is absolutely great for making hundreds of billions of dollars and horrible for opining on how a political system should run. For that, I wish he had more humility. I'd love to see people who are absolutely brilliant in their space owning that and recognizing where are the areas they're not brilliant. One of the problems that American entrepreneurs frequently have when they become super rich and super powerful is they think that all the people blowing smoke up their ass make them brilliant on absolutely everything. That's an area that I think we could see a lot more support if people like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos were willing to take a little step back and try to see themselves objectively. But I do think he really should have been Time Person of the Year in the sense that Time Person of the Year is who had the most impact globally. As one individual in the technopolar world, Elon Musk is probably number one in that regard.
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