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Pro-Palestinian demonstrators wave Palestinian flags outside Union Station, on the day of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's address to a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill, in Washington, U.S., July 24, 2024.
Bibi calls for anti-Iran alliance in Congress as thousands protest
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress Wednesday afternoon amid protests both inside and outside the US Capitol. He framed the war with Hamas as part of a larger conflict between the United States and Iran, and proposed an alliance of anti-Iran nations to be called “The Abraham Alliance.”
In doing so, Netanyahu cast Israeli troops as fighting on the frontlines for American interests, echoing similar sentiments about Ukrainians fighting on behalf of Western democracy. That said, he thanked President Joe Biden multiple times for his support and also lavished praise on former President Donald Trump. He’ll meet with both men this week before going home.
“It was a curious speech. On the one hand, Netanyahu went out of his way to thank Biden and note Israel’s debt to the US, and then followed it up immediately by listing Trump’s achievements,” noted Eurasia Group expert Greg Brew. “But overall, it struck the expected tone, emphasizing that Israel’s confrontation with Iran was really about protecting America.”
Netanyahu’s speech met with mostly warm reception in the halls of Congress, though a few boos were occasionally audible amid the applause. However, over 100 Congressional staffers called in sick in a coordinated protest action, and Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris declined to attend due to a scheduling conflict.
On the streets around Capitol Hill, more than 5,000 people — whom Netanyahu called “Iran’s useful idiots” — marched in protest. They chanted “From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free,” and accused Netanyahu of genocide, while also directing considerable invective at riot gear-clad police lining the route. Around 1:40 p.m., GZERO witnessed police on Constitution Avenue detonate a tear gas canister, which caused a mild panic in the crowd and forced at least six protesters to seek care from on-site medics.
Speakers at a rally held before the march praised pro-Palestinian activists for their efforts in the US. “The reason Joe Biden is not at the top of the nomination for the Democratic Party today is because of you, my friends,” said activist Linda Sarsour, addressing the crowd. “The reason why Kamala Harris is not presiding over the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech is because of you.”
But few at the rally expressed hope for much change from a potential Harris administration — though Gabriel, 68, a retired driver from Maryland, said he thought Harris might “see Palestinians with more empathy.”
We’re watching how Harris talks about Israel on the campaign trail, as well as whether the young people who showed up in Washington will reignite protests on college campuses this fall.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a cabinet meeting at the Bible Lands Museum in Jerusalem on June 5, 2024.
Does Bibi see a benefit to war with Hezbollah?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday warned that Israel was ready for “very intense action” near its border with Lebanon amid rising tensions with the powerful Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
The question of whether Israel will open up a two-front war by launching an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon has been looming over the region since Hamas attacked on Oct. 7 and the devastating conflict in Gaza began. On Thursday, an Israeli air strike on a UN school packed with hundreds of displaced Palestinians in central Gaza reportedly killed at least 35 people.
For months, Israel and Hamas have routinely traded cross-border fire – often with deadly consequences. Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border have been pushed out of their homes because by hostilities. Hezbollah rocket attacks led to wildfires in northern Israel this week.
Netanyahu is now facing pressure from far-right members of his coalition government to take action. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir in a Telegram post on Wednesday said, “All Hezbollah strongholds must be burned and destroyed. War!”
This comes as even US President Joe Biden, one of Israel’s few steadfast allies on the global stage, says it’s not unfair to conclude that Netanyahu sees the war in Gaza as a political lifeline. It’s possible that the Israeli leader might now view an offensive against Hezbollah as another support beam for his flimsy coalition.
Regardless, the US and other major powers have been working for months to avoid seeing the Gaza war spark a wider conflict, which would only inject more chaos into the region. We’ll be watching to see what Netnayahu’s next move is in the days ahead.
Palestinians search for food among burnt debris in the aftermath of an Israeli strike on an area designated for displaced people, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 27, 2024.
Rafah refugee deaths draw condemnation
“A tragic mistake.” With those words, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahuattempted to mitigate the fallout from last week’s airstrike in Rafah that killed 45 Palestinians sheltering in a refugee camp. The US National Security Council expressed heartbreak over the “devastating images,” and French President Emmanuel Macron called for an immediate cease-fire. Germany and Qatar also criticized the attacks, stressing the need for better protection of civilians.
“We are investigating the case and will draw conclusions because this is our policy,” Netanyahu told the Knesset on Monday. “For us it’s a tragedy, for Hamas it’s a strategy.”
But the deaths have intensified scrutiny of Israel, with the UN and international courts demanding a halt to the Rafah offensive. They also come as three European countries — Ireland, Norway, and Spain — are set to recognize Palestinian statehood on Tuesday. Israel described the decision as “rewarding terrorism” and recalled its envoys from the three countries for urgent consultations.
Amid the chaos, new peace negotiations are apparently set to commence, “led by the mediators, Egypt, and Qatar and with active US involvement,” according to a source who spoke with Reuters. However, Hamas later told the news agency that "there is no date" for the talks to resume.Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel over the Israeli Lebanese border, as seen from northern Israel, April 12, 2024.
Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”Iranian and Israeli flags behind an hourglass.
Iran launches ballistic missiles at Israel in revenge attack
Late Saturday, Tehran launched ballistic and cruise missiles toward Israel as part of a retaliatory attack for the recent Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus that killed top Iranian commanders.
IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari said early Sunday that more than 200 different rockets, including drones and ballistic and cruise missiles, were launched at Israel, with Israeli defenses and partners having intercepted the vast majority. More than 100 drones were intercepted with help from Jordan, the US, and the UK.
More worrying are ballistic missiles. While Israel’s missile defense systems can target them, an attack involving both drones and missiles makes it more likely that some of the Iranian weapons could hit their targets. Medics said shrapnel from one interception injured a girl in the Negev, and Hagari said other impacts had damaged infrastructure at a military base in southern Israel.
There have been fears of an escalation of regional violence ever since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, with flareups along the Lebanese border and attacks by Hezbollah and other Iran-backed proxies in the region.
Saturday’s move comes just days after US President Joe Biden warned that Iran was threatening a “significant attack” against Israel. At the time, he promised Washington’s “ironclad” support to Israel, and the US notably has a large number of troops in the region.
Many have feared that a direct attack by Iran could put the entire region at risk. Israel’s top diplomat, Israel Katz, warned earlier this week that “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran.”
But the Iranian attack may have ended just as quickly as it started. The Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations tweeted that Saturday’s move by Tehran was in response to the “Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus” and that “The matter can be deemed concluded.”
Ian Bremmer, the president of GZERO Media and Eurasia Group, says this signals that Iran is sending a “strong message that [the] attack is limited” and it's “looking to avoid war with Israel or the United States.”
Israelis block roads during a protest in Jerusalem.
Bibi goes under the knife amid mounting protests
Protests erupted in Israeli cities this weekend over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's handling of the country's six-month war against Hamas. The demonstrations, reminiscent of last year's protests over judicial reform, reflect how Israelis are increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress in forging a cease-fire deal and securing the release of the remaining Israeli hostages kidnapped on Oct. 7, 2023. On Sunday, roads around the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, were jam-packed with protesters demanding early elections.
Bibi's delicate dance: If he gives up Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages or forges a cease-fire, he could lose part of the right flank of his coalition. He could also lose the ultra-Orthodox parties keeping him in power if he doesn't find a happy middle ground on ultra-Orthodox military conscription exemptions.
Bibi pushed back against criticism on Sunday, saying he has done everything he could to free the hostages. He also reiterated the plan for a military offensive in Rafah. While few expect Netanyahu to speed up his timelines anytime soon, he will be slowing down for the next few days: He had successful hernia surgery last night under full anesthesia and is now in recovery.
The ultimate politician, Bibi has sidestepped political landmines for years. We'll be watching to see whether the building pressure is something he can withstand.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on March 20, 2024, for renewed cease-fire talks.
Are Canada and the US losing patience with Israel?
Canada is halting future arms sales to Israel as the Trudeau government continues to raise concerns about the Jewish State’s war against Hamas in Gaza. That announcement came Tuesday after the House of Commons passed a nonbinding motion calling for the government to work toward a two-state solution, to halt military exports to Israel, and to demand a cease-fire. It also called on Hamas to release the hostages.
In 2022, Canada sent about $21 million in military support to Israel – making the country a top destination for Canadian arms exports. Apart from the loss of equipment, there's also the symbolic cost of the ban: Canada counts itself among countries, including Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Japan, that have stopped shipments to Israel.
The motion was supported by the vast majority of Liberals along with MPs from the New Democratic Party, Green Party, and Bloc Quebecois. Canada also recently put a temporary halt on non-lethal military exports to Israel.
The Netanyahu government says it will stay the course, and its top diplomat issued sharp criticism of Ottawa’s recent move.
But even Israel’s top ally, the US, appears increasingly fed up. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading back to the region to work toward a cease-fire, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has called for new Israeli elections, and President Joe Biden is reportedly mulling possible conditions on military aid to the country.
On Wednesday, Blinken announced that the US submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council calling for an “immediate cease-fire” in Gaza in conjunction with the release of hostages. This represents a significant shift in Washington’s stance on the war, signaling that while it continues to support Israel — it wants to see a truce ASAP. Before this, the US repeatedly vetoed resolutions calling for a cease-fire in Gaza — and opposed the use of the term “immediate” in a draft resolution submitted by Algeria last month. No vote has been scheduled on the new resolution yet.
Gaza caught in the crossfire as Hamas, Israel, and the US near an impasse
The war in Gaza continues, and there are reasons to believe it’s going to persist for a long time still.
There had been a lot of hope that Israel and Hamas would have made a breakthrough deal by now trading an extended (albeit temporary) cease-fire lasting some six weeks for the release of a significant number of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Just a week ago, it seemed likely that such an agreement would be reached before the start of Ramadan after Israel reportedly accepted the terms put forward by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt.
But with Ramadan now underway, the much-vaunted deal continues to be just out of reach. And there’s plenty of blame to go around.
Above all, Hamas now refuses to accept anything short of a permanent cease-fire and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. The group has been emboldened by President Joe Biden’s warning to Israel that a ground incursion into Rafah absent a credible plan to protect civilians would cross a “red line” – the clearest reflection yet of the growing divide between Biden and the Israeli government.
Hamas is exploiting this rift, essentially daring the Israelis to storm a city where 1.5 million Palestinians are presently sheltering under dire humanitarian conditions with nowhere to go, just so it can weaponize civilian casualties and international outrage against them. By choosing continued fighting over a temporary cease-fire, it is putting Palestinian lives at maximum risk – as it has all the way through – to further delegitimize Israel, drive a wedge between it and the United States, and bolster its own political standing. Consider me shocked (not).
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is doing what he knows best: trying to stay in power. What that means is not only that he has little interest in ending the (extremely popular) war – as he has all the way through – but also that he is more than willing to openly ignore, and even defy, Israel’s closest ally when politically expedient. Case in point: Netanyahu responded to Biden’s red line by declaring that Israel’s own red line is Hamas’ continued existence and promising to go into Rafah despite Biden’s opposition.
This was a rare instance in the war, however, when Netanyahu actually spoke for the entire Israeli war cabinet and the majority of the Israeli population rather than his private interests. Polls show that whether or not they like Bibi, and most of them don’t, the vast majority of Israelis do support the complete destruction of Hamas (whatever that means) and don’t want their military to stop short of achieving it (unrealistic as it may be). If that requires ground warfare in Rafah to take out all the organization’s remaining military capabilities, tunnels, and senior leaders, so be it. And if that comes at great loss of civilian life, creates tension with the US, and costs Israel more support on the international stage, well … that’s a price they’re willing to pay.
Accordingly, the expectation is that Israel will move forward with offensive operations in Rafah sooner or later. (Hamas no doubt is aware of that, which is partly why they continue to hold large numbers of hostages; after all, if they let them all go, what would be left to stop the Israelis from taking out their entire leadership?)
When the ground invasion happens, Biden will have no choice but to act on his red line, issued in response to mounting pressure from within his own party (not to mention blowback on the international stage) to distance himself from the Israeli government. But there’s only so much the president can credibly do given the bipartisan consensus – and his own personal support – for continued military aid to Israel no matter what … which, in turn, helps explain why the Israelis will go ahead with the Rafah incursion in the first place.
If I had to guess, the administration’s response will include a temporary pause in the delivery of some high-profile offensive weapons systems. But defensive systems like the Iron Dome won’t be affected, and the core US-Israel security relationship will remain unchanged. Progressives in Biden’s Democratic base will castigate the response as woefully insufficient … but that won’t stop Trump and most Republicans from seizing on the opportunity to claim Biden is abandoning a US ally American voters actually care about, dwarfing the damage from the botched Afghanistan withdrawal.
The domestic political impact of the pause on Biden will far outweigh its material constraint on Israel’s military capabilities, putting the president in an unenviable position. Everyone knows there is no credible risk to continued US military support for Israel. The fact that the Biden administration is having to airdrop humanitarian aid and deploy the military to circumvent a blockade being imposed by one of its closest allies makes it painfully clear that Washington has very little leverage over Israel’s actions … but no less responsibility for them in the eyes of much of the world – and many Americans at home.
That poses a serious and growing political challenge for the president in an election year … and a risk of wider radicalization worldwide, in an environment where Israel and the United States have lost the global information war and are becoming more isolated, with no easy way to contain the fallout.