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Attacking Iran has given Bibi new political life. But will he face a backlash at home?
As part of the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman breaks down what Israel’s recent military success against Iran means for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future—and for the ongoing war in Gaza. While Netanyahu appears to be in a stronger position geopolitically and domestically, Friedman warns that the deeper dynamics in Israel haven’t changed as much as they might seem. “The people who won this war for Israel... were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu,” he says.
Despite the military gains, Friedman argues that the hard choices about Gaza remain unchanged: partner with an international Arab force and the Palestinian Authority, let local militias take over, or reoccupy Gaza permanently. The first option, he says, would dramatically shift Israel’s regional position: “If Bibi were to choose door number one... he wins the next five elections.” But with Netanyahu’s domestic opposition still raw and ideologically opposed to his vision, Friedman suggests the post-war political chemistry in Israel—and Iran—is about to get “really interesting.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the entrance of the White House in Washington, on Feb. 4, 2025.
Netanyahu and Trump to talk tariffs, terror, Turkey, and more at White House on Monday
Tariffs top the menu. The main event will be Trump’s 17% tariff on Israeli exports, which will hurt several of its key industries, including diamonds, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Israel had hoped to preempt additional levies by dropping all its tariffs on US goods last week, but Trump imposed them anyway, citing America’s trade deficit with Israel. Netanyahu hopes to be the first world leader to convince Trump to drop the new levies.
Gaza and the West Bank. Israel has intensified military operations in Gaza, deploying troops to establish the Morag Corridor to the south to pressure Hamas to release the remaining Israeli hostages. At the same time, tensions have been rising in the West Bank, where Israel is authorizing new settlements and being accused of the “Gazafication” of the territory. Bibi will be seeking continued support for Israel’s stance and is likely encouraged by Washington’s recent greenlighting of the export of 20,000 assault rifles, held up under the administration of Joe Biden for fear they might be used by extremist Israeli settlers.
Turkey, Iran, and the rest of the neighborhood. Netanyahu and Trump will also reportedly discuss Israel-Turkey relations and strategies concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and they may also touch on the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu over alleged war crimes in Gaza – an issue that prompted Hungary to withdraw from the ICC last week. Trump sanctioned court officials during Netanyahu’s first White House visit in February – we’ll be watching to see if he takes further action this time.
Palestinians travel in vehicles between the northern and southern Gaza Strip along the Rashid Road on April 2, 2025.
Israel seizes more Gaza territory – for how long?
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that Israel was seizing more territory in Gaza to “divide up” the besieged enclave. He spoke as Israeli forces increased the intensity of their assault on Hamas in Gaza, which resumed two weeks ago after phase one of the ceasefire agreed to in January ended.
The context: Hamas still holds 59 hostages captured during the group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attacks in southern Israel. The two sides are deadlocked on reaching a further deal: Netanyahu wants full Hamas disarmament, Israeli security control of Gaza, and the “voluntary” migration of Gazans. Hamas rejects that and says it will release the remaining hostages – 24 are believed to still be alive – only if Israel withdraws fully.
What territory is Israel taking? Netanyahu pointed specifically to a new “Morag Corridor,” which would bisect southern Gaza, cutting off the cities of Rafah and Khan Younis from each other. Since October 2023, the IDF has already occupied nearly 20% of Gazan territory, forming “buffer zones” around the edges of the enclave.
The big question: Is this a tactical move meant to heighten the pressure on Hamas to release the remaining hostages? Or is Israel planning to hold onto vast swathes of Gaza … indefinitely?Israelis protest against the government over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to remove Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, the resumption of Israeli strikes on Gaza, and the return of far-right politician Itamar Ben Gvir to the cabinet.
Israel launches Gaza ground operation, Bibi faces blowback
Israel has launched a “limited ground operation” to retake the strategic Netzarim Corridor in Gaza as part of its offensive against Hamas, sealing off North and South Gaza and reoccupying four fortified bases. The moves follow Israeli airstrikes that reportedly killed over 400 Palestinians in 48 hours.
In a statement Wednesday, Hamas called the ground incursion a "new and dangerous violation" of the ceasefire deal. The United Nations also condemned an Israeli strike that killed a UN staffer and wounded five others in central Gaza City, and the International Committee of the Red Cross warned that Gaza hospitals are running out of medical supplies.
What’s the view from Israel? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists the offensive will continue until Hamas is eliminated and all 59 remaining Israeli hostages are freed. In Jerusalem, however, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched Wednesday morning to protest the collapse of the ceasefire as well as efforts to remove the chief of the Shin Bet security force, Ronen Bar, who has been investigating Netanyahu’s aides on corruption allegations.
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara is refusing to dismiss Bar without a legal review, saying that “the role of the head of the Shin Bet is not a personal trust position serving the prime minister.” We’re watching whether Bibi will continue to press his case, or whether public pressure will make him back down.U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands after speaking to reporters before their meeting at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem on May 22, 2017.
Is Trump targeting Netanyahu?
President-elect Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week by sharing a video clip on his Truth Social account that shows economist Jeffrey Sachs trashing Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The edited two-minute-long video shows Sachs accusing Netanyahu of manipulating Washington into involvement in Middle East wars the US should have avoided.
The video clip begins with what Sachs describes as dishonest US interventions in Iraq, under George W. Bush, and Syria, under Barack Obama. But the focus quickly turns to the Israeli PM. Netanyahu “is nothing if not obsessive, and he’s still trying to get us to fight Iran this day, this week,” warns Sachs, who also referred to Netanyahu in the clip as a “deep, dark son of a bitch.”
Why did Trump share this video with his nearly 8.5 million Truth Social followers? Is this a warning to Netanyahu not to attack Iran in ways that force a US intervention in a Middle East war that Trump is determined to avoid? His Cabinet picks – particularly Marco Rubio for secretary of state, Mike Waltz as national security advisor, and Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador – are considered adamantly pro-Israel.
The incoming president has criticized and threatened a number of US allies since his election win in November, and we’ll have to keep watching to see whether Trump is formulating a new Middle East strategy.
Pro-Palestinian demonstrators wave Palestinian flags outside Union Station, on the day of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's address to a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill, in Washington, U.S., July 24, 2024.
Bibi calls for anti-Iran alliance in Congress as thousands protest
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress Wednesday afternoon amid protests both inside and outside the US Capitol. He framed the war with Hamas as part of a larger conflict between the United States and Iran, and proposed an alliance of anti-Iran nations to be called “The Abraham Alliance.”
In doing so, Netanyahu cast Israeli troops as fighting on the frontlines for American interests, echoing similar sentiments about Ukrainians fighting on behalf of Western democracy. That said, he thanked President Joe Biden multiple times for his support and also lavished praise on former President Donald Trump. He’ll meet with both men this week before going home.
“It was a curious speech. On the one hand, Netanyahu went out of his way to thank Biden and note Israel’s debt to the US, and then followed it up immediately by listing Trump’s achievements,” noted Eurasia Group expert Greg Brew. “But overall, it struck the expected tone, emphasizing that Israel’s confrontation with Iran was really about protecting America.”
Netanyahu’s speech met with mostly warm reception in the halls of Congress, though a few boos were occasionally audible amid the applause. However, over 100 Congressional staffers called in sick in a coordinated protest action, and Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris declined to attend due to a scheduling conflict.
On the streets around Capitol Hill, more than 5,000 people — whom Netanyahu called “Iran’s useful idiots” — marched in protest. They chanted “From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free,” and accused Netanyahu of genocide, while also directing considerable invective at riot gear-clad police lining the route. Around 1:40 p.m., GZERO witnessed police on Constitution Avenue detonate a tear gas canister, which caused a mild panic in the crowd and forced at least six protesters to seek care from on-site medics.
Speakers at a rally held before the march praised pro-Palestinian activists for their efforts in the US. “The reason Joe Biden is not at the top of the nomination for the Democratic Party today is because of you, my friends,” said activist Linda Sarsour, addressing the crowd. “The reason why Kamala Harris is not presiding over the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech is because of you.”
But few at the rally expressed hope for much change from a potential Harris administration — though Gabriel, 68, a retired driver from Maryland, said he thought Harris might “see Palestinians with more empathy.”
We’re watching how Harris talks about Israel on the campaign trail, as well as whether the young people who showed up in Washington will reignite protests on college campuses this fall.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a cabinet meeting at the Bible Lands Museum in Jerusalem on June 5, 2024.
Does Bibi see a benefit to war with Hezbollah?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday warned that Israel was ready for “very intense action” near its border with Lebanon amid rising tensions with the powerful Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
The question of whether Israel will open up a two-front war by launching an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon has been looming over the region since Hamas attacked on Oct. 7 and the devastating conflict in Gaza began. On Thursday, an Israeli air strike on a UN school packed with hundreds of displaced Palestinians in central Gaza reportedly killed at least 35 people.
For months, Israel and Hamas have routinely traded cross-border fire – often with deadly consequences. Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border have been pushed out of their homes because by hostilities. Hezbollah rocket attacks led to wildfires in northern Israel this week.
Netanyahu is now facing pressure from far-right members of his coalition government to take action. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir in a Telegram post on Wednesday said, “All Hezbollah strongholds must be burned and destroyed. War!”
This comes as even US President Joe Biden, one of Israel’s few steadfast allies on the global stage, says it’s not unfair to conclude that Netanyahu sees the war in Gaza as a political lifeline. It’s possible that the Israeli leader might now view an offensive against Hezbollah as another support beam for his flimsy coalition.
Regardless, the US and other major powers have been working for months to avoid seeing the Gaza war spark a wider conflict, which would only inject more chaos into the region. We’ll be watching to see what Netnayahu’s next move is in the days ahead.
Palestinians search for food among burnt debris in the aftermath of an Israeli strike on an area designated for displaced people, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 27, 2024.
Rafah refugee deaths draw condemnation
“A tragic mistake.” With those words, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu attempted to mitigate the fallout from last week’s airstrike in Rafah that killed 45 Palestinians sheltering in a refugee camp. The US National Security Council expressed heartbreak over the “devastating images,” and French President Emmanuel Macron called for an immediate cease-fire. Germany and Qatar also criticized the attacks, stressing the need for better protection of civilians.
“We are investigating the case and will draw conclusions because this is our policy,” Netanyahu told the Knesset on Monday. “For us it’s a tragedy, for Hamas it’s a strategy.”
But the deaths have intensified scrutiny of Israel, with the UN and international courts demanding a halt to the Rafah offensive. They also come as three European countries — Ireland, Norway, and Spain — are set to recognize Palestinian statehood on Tuesday. Israel described the decision as “rewarding terrorism” and recalled its envoys from the three countries for urgent consultations.
Amid the chaos, new peace negotiations are apparently set to commence, “led by the mediators, Egypt, and Qatar and with active US involvement,” according to a source who spoke with Reuters. However, Hamas later told the news agency that "there is no date" for the talks to resume.