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Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”Iran launches ballistic missiles at Israel in revenge attack
Late Saturday, Tehran launched ballistic and cruise missiles toward Israel as part of a retaliatory attack for the recent Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus that killed top Iranian commanders.
IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari said early Sunday that more than 200 different rockets, including drones and ballistic and cruise missiles, were launched at Israel, with Israeli defenses and partners having intercepted the vast majority. More than 100 drones were intercepted with help from Jordan, the US, and the UK.
More worrying are ballistic missiles. While Israel’s missile defense systems can target them, an attack involving both drones and missiles makes it more likely that some of the Iranian weapons could hit their targets. Medics said shrapnel from one interception injured a girl in the Negev, and Hagari said other impacts had damaged infrastructure at a military base in southern Israel.
There have been fears of an escalation of regional violence ever since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, with flareups along the Lebanese border and attacks by Hezbollah and other Iran-backed proxies in the region.
Saturday’s move comes just days after US President Joe Biden warned that Iran was threatening a “significant attack” against Israel. At the time, he promised Washington’s “ironclad” support to Israel, and the US notably has a large number of troops in the region.
Many have feared that a direct attack by Iran could put the entire region at risk. Israel’s top diplomat, Israel Katz, warned earlier this week that “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will react and attack in Iran.”
But the Iranian attack may have ended just as quickly as it started. The Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations tweeted that Saturday’s move by Tehran was in response to the “Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus” and that “The matter can be deemed concluded.”
Ian Bremmer, the president of GZERO Media and Eurasia Group, says this signals that Iran is sending a “strong message that [the] attack is limited” and it's “looking to avoid war with Israel or the United States.”
Bibi goes under the knife amid mounting protests
Protests erupted in Israeli cities this weekend over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's handling of the country's six-month war against Hamas. The demonstrations, reminiscent of last year's protests over judicial reform, reflect how Israelis are increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress in forging a cease-fire deal and securing the release of the remaining Israeli hostages kidnapped on Oct. 7, 2023. On Sunday, roads around the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, were jam-packed with protesters demanding early elections.
Bibi's delicate dance: If he gives up Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Israeli hostages or forges a cease-fire, he could lose part of the right flank of his coalition. He could also lose the ultra-Orthodox parties keeping him in power if he doesn't find a happy middle ground on ultra-Orthodox military conscription exemptions.
Bibi pushed back against criticism on Sunday, saying he has done everything he could to free the hostages. He also reiterated the plan for a military offensive in Rafah. While few expect Netanyahu to speed up his timelines anytime soon, he will be slowing down for the next few days: He had successful hernia surgery last night under full anesthesia and is now in recovery.
The ultimate politician, Bibi has sidestepped political landmines for years. We'll be watching to see whether the building pressure is something he can withstand.
Are Canada and the US losing patience with Israel?
Canada is halting future arms sales to Israel as the Trudeau government continues to raise concerns about the Jewish State’s war against Hamas in Gaza. That announcement came Tuesday after the House of Commons passed a nonbinding motion calling for the government to work toward a two-state solution, to halt military exports to Israel, and to demand a cease-fire. It also called on Hamas to release the hostages.
In 2022, Canada sent about $21 million in military support to Israel – making the country a top destination for Canadian arms exports. Apart from the loss of equipment, there's also the symbolic cost of the ban: Canada counts itself among countries, including Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Japan, that have stopped shipments to Israel.
The motion was supported by the vast majority of Liberals along with MPs from the New Democratic Party, Green Party, and Bloc Quebecois. Canada also recently put a temporary halt on non-lethal military exports to Israel.
The Netanyahu government says it will stay the course, and its top diplomat issued sharp criticism of Ottawa’s recent move.
But even Israel’s top ally, the US, appears increasingly fed up. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading back to the region to work toward a cease-fire, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has called for new Israeli elections, and President Joe Biden is reportedly mulling possible conditions on military aid to the country.
On Wednesday, Blinken announced that the US submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council calling for an “immediate cease-fire” in Gaza in conjunction with the release of hostages. This represents a significant shift in Washington’s stance on the war, signaling that while it continues to support Israel — it wants to see a truce ASAP. Before this, the US repeatedly vetoed resolutions calling for a cease-fire in Gaza — and opposed the use of the term “immediate” in a draft resolution submitted by Algeria last month. No vote has been scheduled on the new resolution yet.
Gaza caught in the crossfire as Hamas, Israel, and the US near an impasse
The war in Gaza continues, and there are reasons to believe it’s going to persist for a long time still.
There had been a lot of hope that Israel and Hamas would have made a breakthrough deal by now trading an extended (albeit temporary) cease-fire lasting some six weeks for the release of a significant number of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Just a week ago, it seemed likely that such an agreement would be reached before the start of Ramadan after Israel reportedly accepted the terms put forward by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt.
But with Ramadan now underway, the much-vaunted deal continues to be just out of reach. And there’s plenty of blame to go around.
Above all, Hamas now refuses to accept anything short of a permanent cease-fire and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. The group has been emboldened by President Joe Biden’s warning to Israel that a ground incursion into Rafah absent a credible plan to protect civilians would cross a “red line” – the clearest reflection yet of the growing divide between Biden and the Israeli government.
Hamas is exploiting this rift, essentially daring the Israelis to storm a city where 1.5 million Palestinians are presently sheltering under dire humanitarian conditions with nowhere to go, just so it can weaponize civilian casualties and international outrage against them. By choosing continued fighting over a temporary cease-fire, it is putting Palestinian lives at maximum risk – as it has all the way through – to further delegitimize Israel, drive a wedge between it and the United States, and bolster its own political standing. Consider me shocked (not).
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is doing what he knows best: trying to stay in power. What that means is not only that he has little interest in ending the (extremely popular) war – as he has all the way through – but also that he is more than willing to openly ignore, and even defy, Israel’s closest ally when politically expedient. Case in point: Netanyahu responded to Biden’s red line by declaring that Israel’s own red line is Hamas’ continued existence and promising to go into Rafah despite Biden’s opposition.
This was a rare instance in the war, however, when Netanyahu actually spoke for the entire Israeli war cabinet and the majority of the Israeli population rather than his private interests. Polls show that whether or not they like Bibi, and most of them don’t, the vast majority of Israelis do support the complete destruction of Hamas (whatever that means) and don’t want their military to stop short of achieving it (unrealistic as it may be). If that requires ground warfare in Rafah to take out all the organization’s remaining military capabilities, tunnels, and senior leaders, so be it. And if that comes at great loss of civilian life, creates tension with the US, and costs Israel more support on the international stage, well … that’s a price they’re willing to pay.
Accordingly, the expectation is that Israel will move forward with offensive operations in Rafah sooner or later. (Hamas no doubt is aware of that, which is partly why they continue to hold large numbers of hostages; after all, if they let them all go, what would be left to stop the Israelis from taking out their entire leadership?)
When the ground invasion happens, Biden will have no choice but to act on his red line, issued in response to mounting pressure from within his own party (not to mention blowback on the international stage) to distance himself from the Israeli government. But there’s only so much the president can credibly do given the bipartisan consensus – and his own personal support – for continued military aid to Israel no matter what … which, in turn, helps explain why the Israelis will go ahead with the Rafah incursion in the first place.
If I had to guess, the administration’s response will include a temporary pause in the delivery of some high-profile offensive weapons systems. But defensive systems like the Iron Dome won’t be affected, and the core US-Israel security relationship will remain unchanged. Progressives in Biden’s Democratic base will castigate the response as woefully insufficient … but that won’t stop Trump and most Republicans from seizing on the opportunity to claim Biden is abandoning a US ally American voters actually care about, dwarfing the damage from the botched Afghanistan withdrawal.
The domestic political impact of the pause on Biden will far outweigh its material constraint on Israel’s military capabilities, putting the president in an unenviable position. Everyone knows there is no credible risk to continued US military support for Israel. The fact that the Biden administration is having to airdrop humanitarian aid and deploy the military to circumvent a blockade being imposed by one of its closest allies makes it painfully clear that Washington has very little leverage over Israel’s actions … but no less responsibility for them in the eyes of much of the world – and many Americans at home.
That poses a serious and growing political challenge for the president in an election year … and a risk of wider radicalization worldwide, in an environment where Israel and the United States have lost the global information war and are becoming more isolated, with no easy way to contain the fallout.
Can Bibi’s career survive the Israel-Hamas war?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced growing calls to resign since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. In recent days, protesters have gathered outside his home. The war in Gaza isn’t going well. Hamas is far from being destroyed, and roughly 130 hostages remain in Gaza – prompting their family members to storm parliament in outrage. Meanwhile, there are questions as to whether Bibi’s governing coalition will fall apart.
It often seems as though the 74-year-old leader is a breath away from being pushed out of office. But is this war really the last chapter in the chaotic career of Israel’s longest-tenured prime minister?
“After October 7th, everybody was saying, ‘I think he's finished. He's done.’ And he's still there. I think it's probably a matter of time, but it's already been several months,” says Mairav Zonszein, a senior Israel-Palestine analyst for the International Crisis Group who’s based in Israel, adding that it’s “hard to see what the specific tipping point will be that will bring him down.”
Even before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, Netanyahu’s political career was on thin ice as he contended with a corruption trial and mass protests over his government’s judicial overhaul plan. The Israeli leader has since faced blame for security failures surrounding the Hamas attack, on top of fierce criticism over the hostage situation and international criticism over the war in Gaza.
But Bibi has said he is opposed to a permanent cease-fire, even if it means bringing the hostages home – contending that it would only be a matter of time before Hamas attacked again. The current negotiations are reportedly for a limited cease-fire.
It’s complicated. Recent polling paints a complex picture in terms of how Israelis feel about the war – they’re angry at the people charged with protecting them – the ones running the war – but strongly support the fight against Hamas.
One recent poll from Tel Aviv University’s Peace Index showed most Israelis (53%) think the government has “no clear goals” in the war, but it also found that a large majority of the Jewish public think the IDF uses adequate or too little force in Gaza and 88% believe the extent of Palestinian casualties is justified – even as the international community increasingly criticizes Israel over the rising death toll. But the poll also found the Jewish public is relatively split on whether the government should prioritize eliminating Hamas at all costs (50%) or getting the hostages returned in any way possible (48%).
Still, one thing is clear: The Israeli public overwhelmingly disapproves of Netanyahu, with only 15% wanting him to stay in power after the war, according to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute. And many seem to believe that Bibi views the war with Hamas as a political lifeline. A recent Channel 13 survey found 53% of Israelis believe Netanyahu’s wartime decisions are primarily motivated by personal interest.
“There’s a weird kind of paradox or conflict between the support that the war effort has – the legitimacy and consensus around wanting to remove Hamas – but then there's also consensus that Netanyahu has to go. Nobody trusts him,” says Zonszein, adding, “Everybody thinks that he's just dragging this out because it keeps him in power.”
Wartime elections? It’s becoming increasingly clear that Netanyahu’s goal of eliminating Hamas is “not feasible,” says Zonszein, and members of Bibi’s war cabinet have begun to openly challenge him on this.
Gadi Eisenkot, a war cabinet minister and former chief of staff of the IDF, recently said that discussions of destroying Hamas amount to “tall tales.” Eisenkot, whose son was killed in Gaza in December, said that elections should be held in the coming months.
Dozens of ex-top national security officials on Friday sent a letter to Israel’s president and speaker of parliament that pushed for elections and Netanyahu’s removal – referring to him as an “existential” threat to Israel.
In the end, rising public anger over the lack of movement on bringing the hostages home could be what brings Bibi down. Though it would be a “crazy scenario,” says Zonszein, for Israelis to go to the polls amid what is “probably the most decisive war Israel's had since its founding,” if a hostage deal isn’t reached in soon, “the pressure to have an election will increase.”
But a lot has to happen for elections to occur, and if there is a deal that brings the hostages home, it’s difficult to say what that would mean for Netanyahu’s political future.
“It seems like the only clear victory that he can get at this point is getting all the hostages back,” says Zonszein, but if this involves stopping the war and releasing Palestinian prisoners, it could trigger far-right members of his coalition to leave – putting Bibi in a precarious position.
But getting hostages released “would definitely be a huge relief and a huge win for Israel,” Zonszein adds, which has been “fighting with really no results so far.”
Israel’s response to Oct. 7 plays straight into Hamas’ hands
It has now been over a month since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas on Oct. 7, when Hamas terrorists infiltrated southern Israel from Gaza and brutally murdered or kidnapped over 1,400 men, women, and children. And frankly, the war is not going all that well for Israel, which is finding itself increasingly – and dangerously – isolated.
Israel certainly had the right to defend itself after such a horrific attack against its civilians. However, I believe Israel’s leaders made a strategic mistake in how they chose to respond. The all-out assault on Gaza surely felt like the right response – maybe even the only response – in the heat of the moment, but it has predictably led to mounting international criticism against the Jewish state and played into Hamas' hands. This was not inevitable.
What else, you might ask, could Israel have done?
In the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks, Israel had a golden opportunity to build a broad multilateral coalition to combat Hamas, much as the United States built a "coalition of the willing" after 9/11 to go into Afghanistan and eradicate al-Qaida. By leveraging the enormous outpouring of international sympathy it had in the wake of the Oct. 7 assault, Israel could have convinced key allies and partners to join forces in an anti-Hamas alliance. The goodwill was there: The US instantly deployed troops and advisers to the region. French President Emmanuel Macron signaled France’s willingness to combat Hamas alongside Israel. Other European nations like the United Kingdom and Germany likely would have followed suit. Even Arab and Gulf states like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which loathe Hamas and its Iranian backers, could have been brought into the fold.
But instead of capitalizing on its unprecedently strong geopolitical position, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet opted to go it alone. Israel swiftly launched massive bombing campaigns across Gaza, targeting Hamas militants and military infrastructure but also killing thousands of innocent Palestinians (many of whom were used by Hamas as human shields) and decimating civilian infrastructure (some of which was used by Hamas to store weapons, hide militants, and launch rockets). This airborne destruction was followed up with a full-scale ground invasion.
Now, over a month later and with the Palestinian death toll exceeding 10,000, any international sympathy Israel initially gained has all but dissipated and is being replaced by backlash. The Gulf states held three summits over the weekend to discuss solutions to the Gaza crisis, without inviting Israel or explicitly condemning Hamas. As the humanitarian crisis has grown more dire, even normally sympathetic nations have begun speaking out against Israeli excesses. France is calling for a cease-fire. The US, Israel’s strongest ally, is privately threatening to limit military aid if the offensive does not wind down soon, even as publicly it continues to stand very strongly with Israel. And members of the Israeli Cabinet believe that the diplomatic pressure is only going to intensify over the next few weeks as the ground offensive grinds on and the civilian death toll mounts.
Wouldn’t acting with a multilateral coalition have constrained Israel’s response? Wouldn’t it have taken longer to get started, show progress, and achieve its objectives? Wouldn’t it have meant forgoing a ground war in favor of more targeted strikes? Probably so, on all counts. But that all would have been in Israel’s best interest.
The fact is that Israel does not and did not face an existential threat from Hamas – or, for that matter, from anybody in the region. Israel possesses nuclear weapons, cutting-edge missile defense systems like the Iron Dome, and the most capable conventional military in the Middle East by an astonishing margin. It was never in serious danger of being militarily overrun, let alone annihilated, by Hamas’ 30,000-strong militia or its relatively crude rocket arsenal. It defies credulity to say that Israel had to strike back with overwhelming force within days and then launch a ground war to head off a nonexistent existential threat from Hamas.
There's no question that Israel has every right to defend its borders and destroy (or, at the very least, decapitate and seriously degrade) Hamas. No one could expect Israel to accept living next to a territory governed by a genocidal death cult bent on its annihilation. But this could have been accomplished at a time of Israel’s choosing, with the support of a broad multilateral coalition, through more focused strikes on discrete military assets, leadership targets, and tunnels. Such a strategically restrained response would have limited civilian casualties while accomplishing Israel’s key security and geopolitical objectives.
Instead, the bloody scorched-earth campaign in Gaza will fail to deliver security for Israelis while inflicting horrible suffering on Gaza’s civilians, providing Hamas with an invaluable propaganda victory and recruitment tool, and fueling anti-Israel sentiment across the world. This strategic miscalculation will leave Israel weaker, not stronger, than it would have been if it had taken a more measured, deliberate, and internationally coordinated approach.
As Hamas surely knew on the eve of Oct. 7, the real threat to Israel was always that its response would alienate its allies and partners, push the Palestinians (and the Arab world, the Global South, and parts of the left in advanced industrial democracies) further into Hamas’ corner and away from the two-state solution, and ultimately undermine Israel’s long-term security. No doubt, that’s exactly what Israel’s enemies were counting on. And so far, they appear to be getting their way.
Bibi vows “Never Again is now”
As Israel ramped up its military campaign against Hamas this weekend in response to the deadly Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli soldiers were in the second stage of the war with ground troops entering Gaza. The goals, he said, are: “to destroy Hamas’ governing and military capabilities and to bring the hostages home.”
Referencing the cautionary slogan that emerged after the Holocaust, when six million Jews perished at the hand of the Nazis and their collaborators, he added, “We always said, Never Again. Never Again is now.” By Monday, Israeli tanks were approaching the outskirts of Gaza City.
International criticism of Israel’s Gaza campaign, meanwhile, is growing. At a massive demonstration in Istanbul in honor of Turkey’s centenary on Saturday, for example, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said “We will declare Israel a war criminal” and called Hamas militants “freedom fighters.” In response, Israel withdrew its diplomats.
At the United Nations the day before, an amendment put forward by Canada to condemn Hamas for its atrocities and call for the release of all hostages failed to obtain the two-thirds vote necessary for passage. The amendment would have been added to a motion calling for a truce and suspension of hostilities in Gaza, the end of evacuation orders, and the granting of full and unimpeded access to UN relief workers in the area. After the vote, Israel’s representative, Gilad Menashe Erdan, said the world has witnessed that the UN “no longer holds even one ounce of legitimacy or relevance.”
Since the Oct. 7 attacks, the world has seen a shocking surge in hate crimes against Jews and Muslims, making members of both communities feel vulnerable. In the US, the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Counterterrorism Center noted that they have “seen an increase in reports of threats against faith communities, particularly Jewish and Muslim communities.” In one instance, violence led to tragedy when a 6-year-old Palestinian-American boy was killed in Chicago a week after the Hamas attacks.
Pro- and anti-Israel protests have been held on US college campuses – from California to NYC – and in state capitals around the globe. In Dagestan, Russia, a mob stormed an airport this weekend in search of Jewish passengers after a flight arrived from Tel Aviv.
Antisemitism in the US, which was already on the rise, has seen a nearly 400% rise since Oct. 7 compared to the same period last year, according to the ADL.
“Antisemitism is the oldest, longest, most enduring, most toxic, and most lethal of hatreds,” said chair of the Raoul Wallenberg Center for Human Rights and longtime Canadian government official Irwin Cotler. Combatting it, he noted, requires “... a whole-of-government approach and a whole-of-society approach” – something he said is lacking.
In some places, politicians and celebrities are calling out antisemitism and denouncing hate crimes – and we’re seeing the debate hit the presidential campaign trail. Former President Donald Trump, while speaking to the Republican Jewish Coalition leadership summit on Saturday, for example, accused President Joe Biden of turning “a blind eye to the greatest outbreak of antisemitism in American history.”
We’ll be watching to see how Israel’s isolation on the world stage impacts its Gaza campaign, and how political squabbles over Israel play out in the US presidential race.