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Will offensive Puerto Rico remarks hurt Trump's chances?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With the US election a week away, why do Israelis prefer a Trump presidency?
Well, they see that he's prioritized Israel. His first presidency, he was the guy that went to Israel. This was his first trip right after going to the Gulf. That never happens with US presidents. He recognized the Golan Heights as being Israeli territory, the occupied territory they have. Had no problems with taking more territory in the West Bank. Moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. I mean, this has just been someone who has been significantly and consistently pro-Israel, and a lot of his money comes from some of the biggest Israeli-sponsored funds and funders in the United States. I suspect that that is the reason. Keep in mind, lots of US allies around the world. Most of them generally don't support Trump. They support Harris because "America First" is not considered exactly a happy marketing slogan if you don't happen to be American. But Israel, like Hungary, like El Salvador, like Argentina, a few others, the exceptions of that.
How might the results of the Georgia elections and subsequent protests affect political stability and EU membership prospects?
Well, the Georgia Dream Party that has won have said that they still want to join the European Union. But given the fact that they have moved their legal system in a more illiberal direction, they make it much harder for Georgia to join the EU. Of course, that process has been not moved forward while it did for Ukraine and for Moldova over the last year. Also, the fact that it looks like Georgia Dream has done everything they can to steal the elections through election monitors that we've seen in rural areas across the country. Again, not a way to move forward with the European Union. It looks a lot less likely and political instability in Georgia is something we're going to see a lot more of going forward.
To what extent will Puerto Rico and Latino voters sway the election in Kamala Harris's favor?
Hard to say. But the fact that there was a really offensive slur against Puerto Ricans on stage in advance of Trump's big rally at Madison Square Garden this weekend, one that even the Trump campaign felt the need to distance the president from, former president, which they almost never do. This is a guy that doubles down on almost everything is because there are a lot of Puerto Ricans that vote. That's particularly true in swing states, particularly true in Pennsylvania, several hundred thousand. Certainly, that's why Kamala Harris is immediately running ads and putting money behind it on the other side. Trump has not made many mistakes in the last couple of weeks that look like they're vote losers in swing states, and this is one in my view. Whoever this comic is, clearly the jokes weren't adequately vetted. But will it make a difference? Well, we'll see you on Tuesday. Right? This is a razor's edge election and it's going to be super close in my view. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Israel's next move
And secondly, the US Treasury Department has announced additional sanctions against tankers that have shut off their transponders and are helping the Iranians to illegally export significant amounts of sanction-breaking oil. Prices can go up on the back of that. An unusual thing for the Americans to do a few weeks before the election, but shows just how concerned they are about potential escalation in the region. So let me give you some context here. First point. On the one hand, the Americans have sent THAAD systems to Israel before. So it's not like there aren't any American soldiers on the ground operating in Israel. This is not such a game-changer. In fact, such a decision was made not only years ago, but also after October 7th. But it is notable that it comes a year later on the back of potential significant escalation, both in the Northern front that we're already seeing and with Iran that we might be.
Second point is that the oil prices continue to be a little bit under 80 bucks. OPEC has a lot of spare capacity they could put on the market. China continues to have pretty poor numbers in terms of demand. So this isn't likely to have the American move to hit more Iranian oil, isn't likely to have a lot of impact in terms of oil prices. But if the Americans could have stopped what is right now 1.5 million barrels of Iranian export if they could have taken that down and the Iranians are using that money to pay for the Axis of Resistance that's targeting not only Israel but targeting ships in the Middle East, targeting American and UK military assets, why did Biden wait? Why is it only being announced now? And why is it only being announced now in a way that seems to be a gimme for the Israeli Prime Minister and his government in return for not engaging in significant retaliatory escalation against the Iranians?
This is a US policy that continues to look very weak, that continues to be out of step with most of its allies at this point. You see even French President Macron saying that he doesn't want to provide any more military support for Israel. Of course, it's easy for him to say that. He doesn't provide much to begin with. If it was a significant export, I'm sure Macron wouldn't be saying that. But nonetheless, the Americans are on really one very isolated side at this point compared to the rest of the international community, whether you like the United States or you don't. And their ability to influence the Israeli government appears to be virtually zero. And that has been shown with the recent attacks by the Israeli Defense Forces against UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. And we've seen that on the back of those attacks that the United States, France, Spain, Italy, which is a strong right-wing government, but also has a thousand peacekeepers on the ground in Lebanon, all strongly condemning the Israelis for making these attacks.
But not prepared to actually do anything in response and certainly not making the Israelis feel like they need to stop. Now the Israeli perspective is these peacekeepers have not been capable of upholding Security Council resolution that required that Hezbollah pull back from the border area, a buffer zone, that they've been launching military strikes against Israel. And that also Hezbollah fighters are essentially using the presence of the peacekeepers as shields. And that they're operating not on the peacekeeper's bases but in proximity, which makes it harder for the Israelis to go after them. That certainly doesn't justify firing directly on the peacekeepers base, which has happened, and which now the IDF says a mistake. In return, the Israeli Prime Minister has called on the UN Secretary-General to withdraw the peacekeepers. I find it implausible that the Israeli Prime Minister doesn't realize that the Secretary-General has actually no authority over the peacekeepers.
They're sent there on the basis of the Security Council. So in other words, if the Israeli Prime Minister wants to make a demand, he's making it of the permanent members of the Security Council like the United States and China and France, the UK and Russia. He apparently doesn't want to make that statement. But again, the point here is the comparative impunity, and the major headlines, of course, are in the last 24 hours, around four Israeli soldiers that have been targeted and killed, as well as a large number of injuries on Israeli military bases by Hezbollah drones. Hezbollah is much more capable than Hamas has been, and there will be more significant Israeli casualties as this war continues. But most of the casualties, of course, even though it's not most of the headlines, will be among the Lebanese, among the Hezbollah fighters, and among the Lebanon civilian population, of which we've seen about 2,000 killed so far.
And that is because the military dominance in the region, again, both offense and defense and intelligence and surveillance, is overwhelmingly in the hands of Israel. So if there's going to be significant escalation in the war going forward, that escalation will be decided overwhelmingly by the Israeli government. And so that's what is particularly interesting to watch over the coming weeks. I am not expecting very much against Iran, frankly. The fact that the Israelis have already waited for a couple of weeks takes a lot of the urgency out of that. The fact that the Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said, "It will be the time of our choosing and what we do, they'll know that it was us, but they won't know how we did it," implies something that is a much more targeted attack than lots and lots of bombs raining down against, you know, sort of a nuclear facility or against oil production.
It would not surprise me if it was a high-level assassination, for example, against the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC. Especially because we already saw that when the Trump administration assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian response was virtually nothing. So there's precedent for that, and the Iranians have very little at this point that they can do that wouldn't hurt them a hell of a lot more than they can hurt Israel or Israel's allies. So that's where we are right now. A war that continues to escalate with a lot of suffering on the back of it. An incredibly ineffective US policy in the region, and everybody else pretty much sitting on the sidelines.The view from Tehran: Iran's VP Zarif on Israel, Gaza & US complicity in ongoing conflicts
Listen: The Middle East finds itself teetering on the brink of a full-scale regional conflict as the world marks one year since the October 7th Hamas attacks. Israel has intensified its military operations against Iran-backed forces across multiple fronts, leaving destruction in its wake. In the span of a week, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Israel’s ground offensive into Lebanon have thrown gasoline on an already raging fire.
On this episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Iran's Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif, just before the Nasrallah assassination news broke. They discuss Iran's recent actions during this critical time. In their conversation, Zarif discusses the conflict’s broader regional impact, Iran’s right to self-defense, and its determination that Iran will not fall into Israel’s “trap.” Zarif also weighs in on the upcoming US presidential election, speculating on whether a Harris or Trump administration would benefit Iran, and addresses the rumors of an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate former President Donald Trump. He says, "We don’t send people to assassinate people. I think it’s a campaign ploy." Zarif adds that, despite the new Iranian President’s pledge for a rapprochement with the West, recent developments have only driven the wedge further. And with Israel now in northern Lebanon, Iran now stands at a crossroads of what to do next.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- Iran is protecting itself through restraint in Israel-Hamas war, says Kim Ghattas ›
- Israel's war in Gaza has emboldened Iran, says Karim Sadjadpour ›
- Podcast: Iran on the verge: why you don’t want the nuclear deal to fail, according to Iran expert Ali Vaez ›
- Israel hits Iran directly – what next? ›
- The challenges of peacekeeping amid rising global conflicts - GZERO Media ›
- At the Paris Peace Forum, war and conflicts were topics du jour - GZERO Media ›
Biden's exit overshadows Netanyahu's US visit
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will Biden dropping out of the presidential race overshadow Netanyahu's US visit?
Oh, was it happening today? I didn't notice, I was so busy focused on Biden dropping out. No, clearly, it is a massive benefit for Biden that it is now less of a deal. Probably means less demonstrations, means less media coverage. It is a big problem, right? I mean, you've got the US top ally in the Middle East, Israel, the leader is clearly disliked by Biden. Kamala Harris not showing up to preside over Senate. She's, you know, otherwise disposed at a prearranged meeting in Indianapolis. And then you've got Netanyahu going down to Mar-a-Lago to meet with the guy that he wants to become president, former President Donald Trump. All of that is problematic for Biden but less problematic because US political news at home is so overwhelming and headline-worthy.
Can the China-brokered agreement between Hamas and Fatah help bring Palestinian peace?
Unclear. I mean, the fact that Hamas, which is seen as a terrorist organization, and rightly so in my view, by the United States, by most of the West, and certainly by Israel, now has a peace agreement with Fatah, definitely brings the Palestinians closer together. But frankly, since October 7th, the Palestinians have only become more radicalized as a population; just like in Israel, the Jews have become more radicalized as a population, both less interested in peace. The rest of the world is very interested in peace, but very hard to get from here to there. I do think there is a chance that we can still get that six-week agreement because the Knesset is going to be out of session until October, which means that Netanyahu doesn't have to worry about getting thrown out of office if he has a six-week agreement and goes back to fighting, the far right, by the time they could throw him out, the Knesset would be back in. That's interesting and worth looking at.
After a long hot summer of French politics, is the Olympics a rallying moment for Macron?
Not at all. He can't get a government together. That has proved very challenging for him. 2027 still looks like the end of centrism in France, at least for a while. Not going to stop me from watching the Olympics though.
Justice & peace in Gaza: The UN Palestinian ambassador's perspective
With nearly 40,000 Palestinians and over 1,000 Israelis dead, the war in Gaza is still far from over. But one day, it will end. And then what? On the season premiere of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with Palestinian-American diplomat Riyad Mansour to discuss the Gaza war and how it might end. Mansour serves as the Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations and was appointed to his role by Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank in partnership with Israel but has no jurisdiction, for now at least, over Gaza.
In a wide-ranging and candid interview, Mansour emphasizes the need for justice and an end to the occupation for both Israelis and Palestinians. He discusses the role of the United States in facilitating a ceasefire and a two-state solution and highlights the growing international support for the Palestinian cause. "There is something in the air,” Mansour tells Bremmer. “People want justice for the Palestinians. People want this war and this conflict to end. People want the occupation to end because it's good for Israel and it's good for the Palestinians."
Perhaps the most contentious part of the interview has to do with Hamas, an organization that Mansour takes pains to distance himself from without condemning it outright. Mansour laments the killing of innocent civilians and calls for the release of hostages and prisoners on both sides. “Innocent people, innocent civilians, should not be exposed to any harm. This is international law."
He also touches on Gaza's future governance and Hamas’ problematic role in those talks, stating that negotiations are ongoing and that progress can be made through diplomatic efforts. “Now for us, internally, we need to put our house in order with all political groups,” Mansour says, implying that Hamas’ role in Gaza’s future is far from certain.
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, began nationwide on public television stations beginning Friday, July 5 (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Palestinian UN Ambassador Riyad Mansour says give peace a chance
On the season premiere of the GZERO World Podcast, Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations Riyad Mansour joins Ian Bremmer to talk about how the war in Gaza might end and what would come next for Palestinians and Israelis alike.
Nine months into the Israel-Hamas war, is peace a possibility? Around 40,000 Palestinians and over a thousand Israelis have died, according to the Israeli army and the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry (as always, exact numbers are impossible to verify given limited access to the Gaza strip). According to the UN, sixty percent of Gazan homes—and over eighty percent of commercial buildings and schools—have been destroyed or damaged. The UN also warns that over a million Gazans could face the highest levels of starvation by mid-July if the fighting doesn’t end.
Joining the podcast with the Palestinian perspective is Mansour, the Permanent Observer of Palestine to the United Nations. He’s a Palestinian-American himself (the son of an Ohio steelworker) and says that this moment in the Middle East is the most significant period of transformation in his decades of representing the Palestinian people on the global stage. "There is something in the air. People want justice for the Palestinians. People want this war and this conflict to end. People want the occupation to end because it's good for Israel and it's good for the Palestinians."
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.US President Joe Biden
Israel-Gaza policy shapes US and Canadian politics and elections
President Joe Biden is facing pressure as House Republicans press for a bill to chastise the administration for its Isreal policy, despite White House plans to go ahead with a $1 billion arms deal for the Jewish state.
What likely concerns Biden more than Republican censure, however, are the Gen Z voters — upset with his support for Israel — who may decide to park their votes elsewhere, or simply stay home on Election Day. Foreign policy crises like this are the last thing Biden’s approval rating needs.
North of the border, increasingly unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing a similar challenge as younger voters, activists, and Muslim voters consider abandoning the governing Liberals even after the government adopted a partial arms embargo on Israel.
Biden and Trudeau’s best hope is that while voters, especially younger ones, care about Gaza, it may not be their central issue of concern. Most young voters, and voters of all ages, care more about the economy and cost of living. Still, it may not matter for Trudeau, who is as many as 20 points behind Conservative opponent Pierre Poilievre, or Biden, who polls eight points behind Trump on the economy.
Xi invites Putin to China to strengthen "no limits" partnership
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Putin's upcoming visit with Xi Jinping signal a continuing “no limits” partnership between China and Russia?
The relationship is certainly becoming more strategic over time. Not so much because the Russians are changing their behavior. They have very few options at this point. North Korea and Iran are their top allies. Belarus, Syria. I mean, it's a rogues’ gallery, but China is increasingly finding that their ability to work long term in a stable and sustainable way with America's allies in Asia, with the Europeans, and with the United States itself becoming more constrained. And given all of that, willingness to be a closer ally with Russia is increasing over time. Just look at Biden putting 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports. All of this is sending a message to the Chinese that no matter who's elected in November, that the US is trying to contain them. And yeah, I think longer term, the more they see that from the US and their allies, the closer with the Russians they will eventually be.
Why is Europe alarmed with Georgia's “foreign agents” law?
Well, here it's because this is a law. that is, in principle. nothing wrong with it. In principle, just talking about publishing those NGOs, those organizations that get at least 20% funding from external sources. In reality, it's being put in place by a bunch of political leaders that are aligned with Russia. It is almost identical to Russia's own foreign agents law, and it has been used in Russia to chilling effect, to shut down anything that feels like pro-Western democratic opposition in government institutions that in Russia are authoritarian and Georgia are leaning more authoritarian. Keep in mind, this is a Georgia that has constitutionally enshrined that they want to join the European Union and NATO. But the reality is that political officials are moving farther away from that. Big, big demonstrations and potential for violence on the ground in Georgia going forward.
How will Biden respond if Israel continues to push into Rafah?
Well, he said it's a red line, but ultimately it's going to feel like as much of a red line, I suspect, as Obama was on Syria. Yes, they will reduce some level of offensive weaponry that can be used by Israel, in Rafah. But the reality is they're going to keep providing intelligence, keep providing the vast majority of the defense spending that Israel gets from the United States and the weaponry. And there are a lot of members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, that are really upset about the idea of suspending any support to Israel and are moving to try to block Biden legislation, which means he has to find a compromise with them in an election year. All of this puts him firmly in no man's land on the Israel-Palestine issue, not where Biden wants to be.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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