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Search and rescue officers search for victims amidst the rubble of a crumbled building after a hall collapsed while students were praying at the Al-Khoziny Islamic boarding school in Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, on September 29, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Indonesian school collapses, Americans sour on Israel, YouTube pays Trump, Brothers rock in Italian election
3: A school in East Java, Indonesia, collapsed on Monday, killing three people and injuring many more. At least 38 others – many of them teenage boys – remain trapped. The rescue mission was halted on Tuesday over concerns that the building would collapse further. This disaster comes atop a growing list of challenges that President Prabowo Subianto now faces.
35%: A new poll shows 35% of Americans sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israel (34%). It’s the first time in the history of the New York Times/Siena poll, which dates back to 1998, that this has happened. Right after the October 7th, 2023, attacks, support for Israel was at 47%, against just 20% for Palestinians. The new results come after two years of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which some international organizations and watchdogs have said meets the criteria for war crimes, including genocide.
$24.5 million: YouTube agreed to pay $24.5 million to US President Donald Trump and others on Monday in order to settle a lawsuit over the platform’s decision to suspend them from the site in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. The vast majority of the settlement payout – $22 million – will go to Trump, who directed the money to the Trust for the National Mall and to the construction of a new White House ballroom. Trump’s lawyers had argued that the suspension was an act of censorship.
52.5%: In a big win for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, her rightwing Brothers of Italy party was re-elected to run the region of Marche, beating the opposition by nearly ten points with 52.5% of the vote. The ballot in Marche, a light manufacturing industry northeast of Rome which has historically leaned left, is seen as a bellwether for national elections due in 2027.US President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on September 29, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Netanyahu and Trump talk Gaza, Europe nabs a win out east, Peru faces “Gen Z” revolt
Bibi pays yet another visit to the White House
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with US President Donald Trump at the White House today to discuss postwar Gaza. The Trump administration proposed a plan last week involving a coalition of Arab and Muslim-majority nations overseeing a Palestinian committee’s governance of the strip, as well as the release of the remaining hostages from Gaza. Trump hinted on Sunday that a deal to end the war was close, while Bibi said of the White House proposal that he hoped Israel could “make it a go.” With Trump and those around him growing increasingly impatient with Netanyahu, will there finally be a breakthrough?
Europe gets a win the East
Moldova’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity, led by President Maia Sandu, won a narrow parliamentary majority despite alleged Russian efforts to sway the vote towards a Kremlin-friendly opposition party. Opposition protests followed the vote, but European Union leaders welcomed the result, which strengthens Moldova’s bid to join the EU and rebuffs pro-Russian parties that campaigned on anger about high gas prices and fears of wider war and conflict with Russia stemming from Western backing for Ukraine. The election – seen as a referendum on Europe versus Russia – drew global attention to the tiny country due to its strategic position between Romania and Ukraine.
Peru is the latest subject of “Gen Z” protests
Following on from Southeast Asia, South America became the latest continent to experience recent “Gen Z” revolts, as protests erupted in Lima, the Peruvian capital, against President Dina Boluarte. Demonstrators clashed with police, and roughly a dozen were injured. The spark was the government’s move to require everyone over 18 to join a pension provider, which many oppose because it places extra financial burdens on young people when they already face economic insecurity. But tensions have been simmering in the country of 34 million people over corruption scandals, rising crime, and a lack of accountability after Boluarte’s security forces killed protestors in 2022-2023. Boluarte’s approval rating lies at just 3%. The country is scheduled to have elections next year.
Here’s what you missed while you were away
As summer winds down this weekend, here are the geopolitical stories you may have missed while your inbox was on “out of office” — the ones we expect will have the biggest impact this fall.
In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly
Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes. But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the world’s deadliest, and least covered, conflicts: Sudan.
With drones now entering the fray, the conflict risks escalating into a dangerous new phase, allowing both sides to keep inflicting damage with minimal risks to themselves.
Ever since the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum in March, the two sides have been locked in a strategic stalemate, with drones enabling both groups to carry out precision strikes hundreds of miles behind enemy lines.
Is Sudan a sign of future of warfare? Read more here.
A surge of political violence has revived Colombia’s worst fears
When a gunman shot Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June, it sparked memories of the deadly decades-long internal conflict from late last century when political assassination attempts were a common occurrence.
Fast forward nearly three months, Uribe is now dead, and the violence between dissidents and the military has intensified – there have been multiple reports of mass kidnappings of government soldiers. Left-wing President Gustavo Petro has pledged to clamp down on the violence, but he can’t seem to put a lid on things: the number of kidnappings and killings of human rights activists have soared over the last few years.
This will likely cost the left, politically speaking. The rising violence is prompting more and more Colombians to seek a tough-on-crime leader, damaging Petro’s hopes that a socialist candidate will win next year’s presidential election – the incumbent leader can’t run again.
The shift in Colombia’s politics is also something of a proxy for the rest of South America. Other countries with left-wing leaders, like Bolivia and Chile, have also tilted right, seeking leaders who will keep them safe. Bolivians ousted the socialists from power for the first time in decades. Chile’s elections in November will be the next test for the South American left, before Colombia’s election next May.
Will the rising violence hurt the Colombian left? Read more here.
Is MAGA bailing on Bibi?
In early July, there were some rumblings of discontent within the Trump administration at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. An Israeli shell had struck a church in Gaza, settlers had attacked a Christian Palestinian village, and the Israeli Defense Forces had bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus – against the White House’s wishes.
But the disquiet was only the tip of the iceberg: Trump supporters, especially younger ones, are becoming more and more critical of Israel, questioning the US’s support for the Jewish State. Though younger Republicans aren’t nearly as critical as younger Democrats, this trend is a concerning one for Israel, as the country has relied heavily on US military aid. Republicans have been particularly sympathetic toward Israel in recent history, so to lose their backing would be drastic.
Soon after the piece was published, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – a MAGA firebrand – became the first House Republican to label Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “genocide,” affirming that the GOP is no longer united behind supporting Israel. Read the original GZERO report here.
Is AI why college grads can’t find jobs?
The kids are not alright. Since we opened the Pandora’s Box of chatbots, new grads have faced higher unemployment than the national average for the first time in decades. Which raises the question: are they the canaries in the coal mine that AI-driven job disruption has begun?
“It just seems like there’s not any more entry-level roles,” reports James Kettle, a 25-year-old Columbia University graduate who’s been on the job hunt since May. His experience is echoed in a new Stanford study, which found hiring in AI-exposed occupations for early-career workers is down 13%.
Even if we can’t be certain AI is totally to blame for stealing young people’s existing jobs (yet), it’s making it harder for them to get hired in the first place. Delia Thompson, a 23-year-old University of Virginia graduate who’s been on the hunt for seven months, describes the job process today as “shouting into the void,” as she and other candidates send thousands of AI-assisted resumes through LinkedIn, only for companies to use their own algorithms to sift through the pile – a loop of bots talking to bots. “It makes it feel like a total lottery,” says Thompson.
This is reshaping their political views and how many young people are viewing AI overall. Read more here.
US President Donald Trump receives a nomination letter after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told him he nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, during a bilateral dinner at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on July 7, 2025.
Is MAGA bailing on Bibi?
The past few days have brought an unusually firm trickle of criticism of Israel from the Trump administration and its allies.
Senior White House officials are reportedly unhappy about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct in Syria, where Israel has launched a wave of airstrikes on behalf of the Druze minority there. One source even told a reporter that the Israeli leader had “acted like a madman.” This came after Israel’s shelling of a church in Gaza last week drew criticism from the right as well. And US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, normally a staunch Israel supporter, called for “harsh consequences” after Israeli settlers launched a deadly attack on a Christian Palestinian village.
This isn’t the first time that Netanyahu has irked Trump. In January 2020, the Israeli leader caught his US counterpart off guard when he suggested at a White House event that he would annex the West Bank and the Jordan Valley, contravening the peace plan that Trump was proposing. Netanyahu also angered the former “Apprentice” star when he congratulated former President Joe Biden on his election win later that year.
Still, let’s keep things in perspective. Trump remains a staunch Israel ally – his decision to join Israel in bombing Iran last month is a testament to the proximity of US-Israeli relations. What’s more, the White House has clamped down on certain pro-Palestinian voices on college campuses that they see as anti-American and anti-Israel.
And it’s not just the executive branch, either. Only six House lawmakers voted for a bill last week that would block $500 million in annual missile-defense funding to Israel; 422 voted against it. Though some might not like Netanyahu’s tactics, Republican lawmakers – and Democratic ones, too – still view Israel as a close ally.
Underneath the surface, though, there are rumblings of discontent.
A Pew Research Center survey from April found that 37% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Israel, up 10 points from three years ago. The trend is especially pronounced among Republicans under 50, half of whom now have an unfavorable view of Israel, up 15 points over the past three years.
“Those that are new to the [MAGA] movement probably are not deeply intertwined in foreign policy and probably don’t understand why there can’t be peace [in the Middle East],” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist who was appointed to the State Department during Trump’s first term.
This swing is reflected among some of the darlings of MAGA media, like former Fox News host Tucker Carlson or premier podcasters Joe Rogan and Theo Von, who have questioned US support for Israel in the light of the war in Gaza. Von called Israel’s actions in Gaza, “one of the sickest things that has ever happened.”
To be sure, Democrats in general have shifted against Israel more swiftly than Republicans, with 69% of Democrats holding an unfavorable view of Israel, up 16 points between 2022 and 2025. Younger Democrats are particularly critical: 71% of those under 50 hold an unfavorable view of Israel. Many have even protested the existence of a Jewish state altogether.
“For older Americans, Israel’s survival is the priority,” GOP pollster Frank Luntz told GZERO. “For younger Americans, it’s support for the Palestinian people.”
These generational shifts – in both parties – may pose a bigger challenge for Israel than any of the current tactical disagreements or personal frictions between Trump and Bibi.
US travel warnings issued by its closest allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why are some countries issuing travel advisories for visiting the United States?
You'd call it an abundance of caution, but things are moving very quickly in the US. It's only been two months since Trump has been inaugurated. And many countries, allies of the US, feel that treatment of their citizens will not be aligned with rule of law in the United States. Certainly, worry given, for example, some green card holders facing deportation for what would be considered for an American citizen just exercise of freedom of speech, freedom of organization.
Also, they've seen what's happened with law firms and the chilling impact of Trump going after them if they are engaged in supporting lawsuits against the government. All of those things and a recognition that these are moving fast and getting more challenging quickly, quickly, quickly, is making a whole bunch of American allies issue travel advisories telling their citizens, "You shouldn't be traveling to the US right now." We've already seen a big economic impact of Canada tourism to the United States hurting the US economy. Haven't seen that as much from Europe yet, but I expect that you will. And of course, in terms of people that are applying for green cards and wanting to get jobs in top American corporations or apply to be students at top American universities, I think that's going to have a big impact going forward longer term.
How are the political tensions in Netanyahu's government impacting the war with Hamas?
Well, the fact that the far-right coalition is fully back together because the war has restarted. That's why the far-right party left, and that was because they didn't like the ceasefire and they certainly were opposed to phase two that would've led to the Israelis to do a full pullout of the military from Gaza. Well, now the war has restarted, the Israeli government is talking directly about annexation if the hostages are not all released. And they're doing that with full support of the United States. Big demonstrations in Israel, concerned that Israel is no longer going to be a democracy, especially because the prime minister has now sacked his Attorney General, has sacked the head of the Shin Bet, both unprecedented for Israel since independence. But Netanyahu has full support from his coalition and from the United States. So, he's in a strong position right now.
Will public outcry over the arrest of Istanbul's mayor lead to major political reforms or shifts within the Turkish government?
I don't expect so at all. They are allowing for large demonstrations to continue in Istanbul, even though President Erdogan has said that's illegal, in part because there's a lot of media there. There's a lot of focus there. They clearly want to limit that violence. But they've been cracking down really hard everywhere else in the country, including the capital, Ankara. They've dealt with this sort of thing in the past. The military is fully aligned with Erdogan, and the top is quite politicized. Media, dido, overwhelmingly aligned with the state. So is the judiciary after the failed coup attempt.
So for all of those reasons, I think this is going to be a move from Erdogan towards a more direct autocracy as opposed to a hybrid system. Unfortunate and yet one more place where the Europeans are in trouble. But nonetheless he's been quite useful to a number of other countries around the world in terms of dealing with refugees from Syria. If you're the Europeans, dealing with Turkey on the ground, dealing with Syria on the ground, and stability if you're the United States. And the Gulf States have found him useful as an interlocutor as well on Russia-Ukraine too. So for all of those reasons, very important internationally, very repressive domestically. Two things I expect to continue.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands after speaking to reporters before their meeting at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem on May 22, 2017.
Is Trump targeting Netanyahu?
President-elect Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week by sharing a video clip on his Truth Social account that shows economist Jeffrey Sachs trashing Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The edited two-minute-long video shows Sachs accusing Netanyahu of manipulating Washington into involvement in Middle East wars the US should have avoided.
The video clip begins with what Sachs describes as dishonest US interventions in Iraq, under George W. Bush, and Syria, under Barack Obama. But the focus quickly turns to the Israeli PM. Netanyahu “is nothing if not obsessive, and he’s still trying to get us to fight Iran this day, this week,” warns Sachs, who also referred to Netanyahu in the clip as a “deep, dark son of a bitch.”
Why did Trump share this video with his nearly 8.5 million Truth Social followers? Is this a warning to Netanyahu not to attack Iran in ways that force a US intervention in a Middle East war that Trump is determined to avoid? His Cabinet picks – particularly Marco Rubio for secretary of state, Mike Waltz as national security advisor, and Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador – are considered adamantly pro-Israel.
The incoming president has criticized and threatened a number of US allies since his election win in November, and we’ll have to keep watching to see whether Trump is formulating a new Middle East strategy.
Will offensive Puerto Rico remarks hurt Trump's chances?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With the US election a week away, why do Israelis prefer a Trump presidency?
Well, they see that he's prioritized Israel. His first presidency, he was the guy that went to Israel. This was his first trip right after going to the Gulf. That never happens with US presidents. He recognized the Golan Heights as being Israeli territory, the occupied territory they have. Had no problems with taking more territory in the West Bank. Moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. I mean, this has just been someone who has been significantly and consistently pro-Israel, and a lot of his money comes from some of the biggest Israeli-sponsored funds and funders in the United States. I suspect that that is the reason. Keep in mind, lots of US allies around the world. Most of them generally don't support Trump. They support Harris because "America First" is not considered exactly a happy marketing slogan if you don't happen to be American. But Israel, like Hungary, like El Salvador, like Argentina, a few others, the exceptions of that.
How might the results of the Georgia elections and subsequent protests affect political stability and EU membership prospects?
Well, the Georgia Dream Party that has won have said that they still want to join the European Union. But given the fact that they have moved their legal system in a more illiberal direction, they make it much harder for Georgia to join the EU. Of course, that process has been not moved forward while it did for Ukraine and for Moldova over the last year. Also, the fact that it looks like Georgia Dream has done everything they can to steal the elections through election monitors that we've seen in rural areas across the country. Again, not a way to move forward with the European Union. It looks a lot less likely and political instability in Georgia is something we're going to see a lot more of going forward.
To what extent will Puerto Rico and Latino voters sway the election in Kamala Harris's favor?
Hard to say. But the fact that there was a really offensive slur against Puerto Ricans on stage in advance of Trump's big rally at Madison Square Garden this weekend, one that even the Trump campaign felt the need to distance the president from, former president, which they almost never do. This is a guy that doubles down on almost everything is because there are a lot of Puerto Ricans that vote. That's particularly true in swing states, particularly true in Pennsylvania, several hundred thousand. Certainly, that's why Kamala Harris is immediately running ads and putting money behind it on the other side. Trump has not made many mistakes in the last couple of weeks that look like they're vote losers in swing states, and this is one in my view. Whoever this comic is, clearly the jokes weren't adequately vetted. But will it make a difference? Well, we'll see you on Tuesday. Right? This is a razor's edge election and it's going to be super close in my view. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Did Georgia fall out of the EU’s orbit and into Russia’s? ›
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- How a second Trump term could reshape global politics ›
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- Trump rallies in NYC, Harris hits Philly in star-powered final push ›
Israel's next move
And secondly, the US Treasury Department has announced additional sanctions against tankers that have shut off their transponders and are helping the Iranians to illegally export significant amounts of sanction-breaking oil. Prices can go up on the back of that. An unusual thing for the Americans to do a few weeks before the election, but shows just how concerned they are about potential escalation in the region. So let me give you some context here. First point. On the one hand, the Americans have sent THAAD systems to Israel before. So it's not like there aren't any American soldiers on the ground operating in Israel. This is not such a game-changer. In fact, such a decision was made not only years ago, but also after October 7th. But it is notable that it comes a year later on the back of potential significant escalation, both in the Northern front that we're already seeing and with Iran that we might be.
Second point is that the oil prices continue to be a little bit under 80 bucks. OPEC has a lot of spare capacity they could put on the market. China continues to have pretty poor numbers in terms of demand. So this isn't likely to have the American move to hit more Iranian oil, isn't likely to have a lot of impact in terms of oil prices. But if the Americans could have stopped what is right now 1.5 million barrels of Iranian export if they could have taken that down and the Iranians are using that money to pay for the Axis of Resistance that's targeting not only Israel but targeting ships in the Middle East, targeting American and UK military assets, why did Biden wait? Why is it only being announced now? And why is it only being announced now in a way that seems to be a gimme for the Israeli Prime Minister and his government in return for not engaging in significant retaliatory escalation against the Iranians?
This is a US policy that continues to look very weak, that continues to be out of step with most of its allies at this point. You see even French President Macron saying that he doesn't want to provide any more military support for Israel. Of course, it's easy for him to say that. He doesn't provide much to begin with. If it was a significant export, I'm sure Macron wouldn't be saying that. But nonetheless, the Americans are on really one very isolated side at this point compared to the rest of the international community, whether you like the United States or you don't. And their ability to influence the Israeli government appears to be virtually zero. And that has been shown with the recent attacks by the Israeli Defense Forces against UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. And we've seen that on the back of those attacks that the United States, France, Spain, Italy, which is a strong right-wing government, but also has a thousand peacekeepers on the ground in Lebanon, all strongly condemning the Israelis for making these attacks.
But not prepared to actually do anything in response and certainly not making the Israelis feel like they need to stop. Now the Israeli perspective is these peacekeepers have not been capable of upholding Security Council resolution that required that Hezbollah pull back from the border area, a buffer zone, that they've been launching military strikes against Israel. And that also Hezbollah fighters are essentially using the presence of the peacekeepers as shields. And that they're operating not on the peacekeeper's bases but in proximity, which makes it harder for the Israelis to go after them. That certainly doesn't justify firing directly on the peacekeepers base, which has happened, and which now the IDF says a mistake. In return, the Israeli Prime Minister has called on the UN Secretary-General to withdraw the peacekeepers. I find it implausible that the Israeli Prime Minister doesn't realize that the Secretary-General has actually no authority over the peacekeepers.
They're sent there on the basis of the Security Council. So in other words, if the Israeli Prime Minister wants to make a demand, he's making it of the permanent members of the Security Council like the United States and China and France, the UK and Russia. He apparently doesn't want to make that statement. But again, the point here is the comparative impunity, and the major headlines, of course, are in the last 24 hours, around four Israeli soldiers that have been targeted and killed, as well as a large number of injuries on Israeli military bases by Hezbollah drones. Hezbollah is much more capable than Hamas has been, and there will be more significant Israeli casualties as this war continues. But most of the casualties, of course, even though it's not most of the headlines, will be among the Lebanese, among the Hezbollah fighters, and among the Lebanon civilian population, of which we've seen about 2,000 killed so far.
And that is because the military dominance in the region, again, both offense and defense and intelligence and surveillance, is overwhelmingly in the hands of Israel. So if there's going to be significant escalation in the war going forward, that escalation will be decided overwhelmingly by the Israeli government. And so that's what is particularly interesting to watch over the coming weeks. I am not expecting very much against Iran, frankly. The fact that the Israelis have already waited for a couple of weeks takes a lot of the urgency out of that. The fact that the Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said, "It will be the time of our choosing and what we do, they'll know that it was us, but they won't know how we did it," implies something that is a much more targeted attack than lots and lots of bombs raining down against, you know, sort of a nuclear facility or against oil production.
It would not surprise me if it was a high-level assassination, for example, against the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC. Especially because we already saw that when the Trump administration assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian response was virtually nothing. So there's precedent for that, and the Iranians have very little at this point that they can do that wouldn't hurt them a hell of a lot more than they can hurt Israel or Israel's allies. So that's where we are right now. A war that continues to escalate with a lot of suffering on the back of it. An incredibly ineffective US policy in the region, and everybody else pretty much sitting on the sidelines.