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A combination picture shows Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with Arkhangelsk Region Governor Alexander Tsybulsky in Severodvinsk, Arkhangelsk region, Russia July 24, 2025.
In Alaska, the clock favors Putin
In negotiations, the most desperate party rarely gets the best terms. As Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Alaska today to discuss ending the Ukraine War, their diverging timelines may shape what deals emerge – if any. Trump needs a deal fast, Ukraine needs one that lasts, and Russia can afford to wait.
Trump wants a quick foreign policy win to fulfill his overdue campaign promise of ending the war "within 24 hours." With his base growing tired of funding Ukraine and cabinet members like Vice President JD Vance pushing for foreign policy to pivot toward China,Trump may prioritize announcing any deal over negotiating a good one.
US Leverage: Trump wields two powerful tools to force a deal. Against Russia, he could impose secondary sanctions on China's purchases of Russian energy — potentially dealing a devastating blow to Moscow's oil-dependent economy. Against Ukraine, he holds the extreme option of suspending intelligence sharing. While European allies could provide weapons in America's absence, they lack the intel that powers Ukraine’s precision drone strikes.
"Trump may be keen to chase speed over substance," warns Eurasia Group analyst Dani Podgoretskaya, who fears this could produce "a terrible, terrible deal" for Ukraine. However, she says that in meetings this week with EU leaders Trump “supported several Ukrainian demands, including for security guarantees and, most importantly, involving Ukraine in future meetings,” making the scenario of Trump inking a unilateral deal with Putin unlikely.
Meanwhile, Ukraine wants a ceasefire, but only if it lasts. Ukraine’s red lines remain firm: no foreign policy subordination to Russia, no permanent NATO exclusion, and no territorial concessions without "ironclad" security guarantees from the west. While Kyiv is running short on manpower and would potentially even accept a ceasefire that freezes current front lines, analysts say it won't make territorial concessions without meaningful security guarantees — fearing Russia will simply rebuild and invade again.
"The overarching goal for Ukraine is to survive an unprovoked attack on its statehood and prevent Russia from ever coming back," explains Podgoretskaya.
Current map of war in Ukraine
Ukraine's Leverage: Ukraine's greatest strength lies in its ability to refuse. No peace agreement works without Ukrainian consent — Kyiv will simply keep fighting.
If Trump traded territory without Ukrainians at the table and Zelensky capitulated, it would trigger political collapse and potentially spark military rebellion in Ukraine."It would be impossible for [Zelensky] to sell that back home," says Eurasia Group expert Tinatin Japaridze. "Territorial concessions remain a top-of-mind risk for all Ukrainians, and to this end, Kyiv’s capitulation is highly unlikely, though of course Putin will continue to push for this."
Ukraine also retains European backing and could sustain operations for perhaps up to a year without American support. However, a critical vulnerability lurks in Ukraine's defense infrastructure: "A lot of the components they're using for drones come from China," Podgoretskaya warns. "That is potentially a bottleneck, a very dangerous one."
Finally, Russia enters Alaska aiming to buy time and avoid new US sanctions while maintaining maximalist demands: annexation of five Ukrainian regions, permanent NATO exclusion for Ukraine, and strict limits on Ukrainian military forces. Putin may offer Trump small concessions — such as a temporary halt to aerial bombardments — while highlighting potential future US-Russia business opportunities, keeping the door open for future talks without committing to a full ceasefire.
Russia's Leverage: Despite economic damage from sanctions, "Russia can keep going at the expense of long-term growth,” says Podgoretskaya, “They can make sacrifices to keep the war alive until they get what they want." Moscow maintains battlefield superiority in Donbas after 17 months of grinding down Ukrainian defenses, and experts predict these gains will accelerate if fighting continues – with Russia potentially controlling the whole region by the end of the year.
Putin also has domestic incentives to prolong the war. "The economy is now very dependent on military spending. When that is cut, the economy is going to suffer quite dramatically," Podgoretskaya explains. To justify the pain of the war, Putin needs a substantial military victory.
“The Russians are not going to Alaska to make a deal,” says Japaridze. “They’re there to win some time and show both domestically and abroad that Putin is playing the long game.”
The US, Ukraine, and Russia will all attempt to pursue their goals with their leverage. Like many of you, we’ll be watching this afternoon to see what happens next.
Graphic Truth: India dismisses Trump’s threats on Russian oil
India has said it will continue purchasing Russian oil, despite US President Donald Trump announcing a 25% tariff and threatening an “unspecified penalty” for doing so last week. New Delhi has ramped up its purchases of discounted Russian crude since US and European sanctions against Moscow took effect in 2022 over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. But those imports are now in Washington’s crosshairs as Putin continues to ignore Donald Trump’s demands for peace talks with Kyiv. Officials in Delhi defended their position – citing the country’s energy needs – but White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller accused India of “financing” Russia’s war in Ukraine. Here’s a look at how important India’s purchases of Russian oil are for both countries.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te attends the coast guard annual drill in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, June 8, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Taiwan’s president latest setback, Angolan fuel protests turn violent, Trump launches Sudan peace effort
Trump blocks Taiwan’s president from traveling through New York
US President Donald Trump blocked Taiwan’s president from stopping over in New York on a trip to Central America. The move, which comes right as US and Chinese officials are discussing a trade deal again, is seen as a concession to Beijing, which famously does not recognize Taiwan’s independence and objects to Taiwanese officials visiting the US, who have traditionally used US transits to bolster unofficial ties. Does this mean Washington’s decades-long military and diplomatic support for Taiwan could be in play as Trump negotiates with China?
Angolan fuel protests turn violent
A three-day long strike by taxi drivers angry about a 33% diesel price hike has turned into a violent demonstration involving thousands in the capital Luanda. Four people have been killed and hundreds arrested amid rioting, looting, and the destruction of cars. The effect of the fuel price hike extends well beyond the gas tank, as it has pushed up prices for food and other essentials as well, exacerbating existing food insecurities in the sub-Saharan African nation.
Trump launches new Sudan peace process – with a twist
The Trump administration is launching a new effort to end Sudan’s civil war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and displaced 13 million over the last two-plus years. Rather than meeting with those two groups directly, Trump is flipping the script and starting with their respective regional backers, the UAE (which supports RSF) and Egypt and Saudi Arabia (which back SAF). Can Trump’s Gulf connections and transactional style work where others have failed? Read Ian Bremmer’s take on that here.
Three presidents have visited the Federal Reserve before Donald Trump
Graphic Truth: Donald Trump visits the Federal Reserve
Donald Trump is set to visit the US Federal Reserve building on Thursday to inspect its recent $2.5 billion structural renovation, amid an intensifying White House pressure campaign on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been publicly urging Powell to slash interest rates by three points from the current level of 4.5%, and recently accused the Fed of mismanaging the renovation project — just days after briefly threatening to fire Powell. This marks only the fourth time in history that a sitting president has visited the central bank, which is meant to operate independently to ensure its decisions are driven by economic data, not political influence.
The Trump admin can do more to help Sudan, says Sen. Warner
In this clip from GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Senator Mark Warner explains why he’s taken on Sudan’s brutal civil war as a personal and political priority—and why the US, under both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, has failed to act. “More people die every day in Sudan than in Gaza and Ukraine combined,” Warner says, calling the conflict a humanitarian catastrophe hiding in plain sight.
Warner argues that neither side in Sudan’s civil war deserves US backing—“both teams are bad”—but that Trump, in particular, has a unique opportunity to pressure Saudi Arabia and the UAE to stop funding the violence. “It would be a huge policy win,” he says. Yet, despite bipartisan concern, Warner says there’s been no serious focus on the crisis. As US aid gets clawed back and global attention stays elsewhere, Warner warns the price isn’t just moral—it’s geopolitical. “When we don’t step up, China fills the void—for pennies on the dollar.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Sen Warner: Tulsi Gabbard should resign or be fired
In a clip from the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Senate Intelligence Chair Mark Warner delivers a stark warning about what he sees as the Trump administration’s attempt to transform the US intelligence community into a partisan tool. Warner points to recent efforts—led in part by intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard—to create a loyalty-driven “master file” of personnel across the 17 US intel agencies.
He recalls a case where analysts were pressured to change their findings about Venezuelan paramilitaries—and fired when they refused. “They wouldn't bend the knee, so they got fired,” Warner says. He also reveals that key allies in the Five Eyes intelligence network have privately expressed concern, suggesting they may no longer fully trust Washington with sensitive information. “We may not even know what we didn’t get,” Warner says, warning that this chilling effect could leave the US dangerously exposed.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
British soldiers with NATO-led Resolute Support Mission arrive at the site of an attack in Kabul, Afghanistan March 6, 2020.
Hard Numbers: Secret British plan resettles Afghans, More Palestinians die at aid sites, US AIDS relief lives on, robots take the field, & more
19,000: According to a BBC report, the personal details of 19,000 Afghans who had applied to move to the United Kingdom following the 2021 Taliban takeover were leaked in February 2022. The government learned of the data breach in August 2023 and created a secret resettlement scheme for those affected, as it was deemed they were at risk of harm by the Taliban. Under the program, 4,500 Afghans have relocated to the UK.
20: At least 20 Palestinians were killed in a stampede at an aid distribution site operated by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Fund on Wednesday. The UN says at least 875 people have lost their lives in the past six weeks alone while trying to access aid at these sites, with the majority reportedly gunned down by Israeli security forces. While Israel denies deliberately targeting civilians, it has said it is investigating the incidents.
$400 million: US Republican senators reached a budget deal on Tuesday that will preserve the $400-million President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) program, which helps to stem the spread of HIV in more than 50 countries and has reportedly saved 26 million lives. President Donald Trump had previously frozen funding for PEPFAR as part of his foreign-aid freeze.
2: A US citizen, Daniel Martindale, who spent more than two years spying on Ukrainian troops for Russia was awarded citizenship by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Martindale reportedly biked from Poland to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in 2022, and surveyed key military positions and facilities from a Ukrainian village near the front line.
4: Our new robot umpire overlords have arrived! Last night’s Major League Baseball All-Star game – a meaningless but fun contest between the sport’s biggest stars – featured a trial system allowing players to appeal to a computerized system to challenge ball-and-strike calls made by human umps. Four out of the five challenges in the game were successful. The system could be introduced in meaningful games at the Major League level as soon as next season. Do we want this?
June 2025 inflation rate.
Graphic Truth: Inflation accelerates in June
Inflation ticked up to 2.7% in June as the effects of tariffs took hold, potentially complicating Donald Trump’s economic playbook. Consumer prices rose 0.3% since May, fueled by higher gas and apparel costs. Core inflation – which is seen as more reliable because it discounts volatile food and energy prices – also edged up to 2.9% year-over-year. With new tariffs looming Aug. 1, policymakers are bracing for more turbulence.