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Graphic Truth: India dismisses Trump’s threats on Russian oil
India has said it will continue purchasing Russian oil, despite US President Donald Trump announcing a 25% tariff and threatening an “unspecified penalty” for doing so last week. New Delhi has ramped up its purchases of discounted Russian crude since US and European sanctions against Moscow took effect in 2022 over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. But those imports are now in Washington’s crosshairs as Putin continues to ignore Donald Trump’s demands for peace talks with Kyiv. Officials in Delhi defended their position – citing the country’s energy needs – but White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller accused India of “financing” Russia’s war in Ukraine. Here’s a look at how important India’s purchases of Russian oil are for both countries.
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te attends the coast guard annual drill in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, June 8, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Taiwan’s president latest setback, Angolan fuel protests turn violent, Trump launches Sudan peace effort
Trump blocks Taiwan’s president from traveling through New York
US President Donald Trump blocked Taiwan’s president from stopping over in New York on a trip to Central America. The move, which comes right as US and Chinese officials are discussing a trade deal again, is seen as a concession to Beijing, which famously does not recognize Taiwan’s independence and objects to Taiwanese officials visiting the US, who have traditionally used US transits to bolster unofficial ties. Does this mean Washington’s decades-long military and diplomatic support for Taiwan could be in play as Trump negotiates with China?
Angolan fuel protests turn violent
A three-day long strike by taxi drivers angry about a 33% diesel price hike has turned into a violent demonstration involving thousands in the capital Luanda. Four people have been killed and hundreds arrested amid rioting, looting, and the destruction of cars. The effect of the fuel price hike extends well beyond the gas tank, as it has pushed up prices for food and other essentials as well, exacerbating existing food insecurities in the sub-Saharan African nation.
Trump launches new Sudan peace process – with a twist
The Trump administration is launching a new effort to end Sudan’s civil war between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a conflict that has killed tens of thousands and displaced 13 million over the last two-plus years. Rather than meeting with those two groups directly, Trump is flipping the script and starting with their respective regional backers, the UAE (which supports RSF) and Egypt and Saudi Arabia (which back SAF). Can Trump’s Gulf connections and transactional style work where others have failed? Read Ian Bremmer’s take on that here.
Three presidents have visited the Federal Reserve before Donald Trump
Graphic Truth: Donald Trump visits the Federal Reserve
Donald Trump is set to visit the US Federal Reserve building on Thursday to inspect its recent $2.5 billion structural renovation, amid an intensifying White House pressure campaign on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been publicly urging Powell to slash interest rates by three points from the current level of 4.5%, and recently accused the Fed of mismanaging the renovation project — just days after briefly threatening to fire Powell. This marks only the fourth time in history that a sitting president has visited the central bank, which is meant to operate independently to ensure its decisions are driven by economic data, not political influence.
The Trump admin can do more to help Sudan, says Sen. Warner
In this clip from GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Senator Mark Warner explains why he’s taken on Sudan’s brutal civil war as a personal and political priority—and why the US, under both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, has failed to act. “More people die every day in Sudan than in Gaza and Ukraine combined,” Warner says, calling the conflict a humanitarian catastrophe hiding in plain sight.
Warner argues that neither side in Sudan’s civil war deserves US backing—“both teams are bad”—but that Trump, in particular, has a unique opportunity to pressure Saudi Arabia and the UAE to stop funding the violence. “It would be a huge policy win,” he says. Yet, despite bipartisan concern, Warner says there’s been no serious focus on the crisis. As US aid gets clawed back and global attention stays elsewhere, Warner warns the price isn’t just moral—it’s geopolitical. “When we don’t step up, China fills the void—for pennies on the dollar.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Sen Warner: Tulsi Gabbard should resign or be fired
In a clip from the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Senate Intelligence Chair Mark Warner delivers a stark warning about what he sees as the Trump administration’s attempt to transform the US intelligence community into a partisan tool. Warner points to recent efforts—led in part by intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard—to create a loyalty-driven “master file” of personnel across the 17 US intel agencies.
He recalls a case where analysts were pressured to change their findings about Venezuelan paramilitaries—and fired when they refused. “They wouldn't bend the knee, so they got fired,” Warner says. He also reveals that key allies in the Five Eyes intelligence network have privately expressed concern, suggesting they may no longer fully trust Washington with sensitive information. “We may not even know what we didn’t get,” Warner says, warning that this chilling effect could leave the US dangerously exposed.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
British soldiers with NATO-led Resolute Support Mission arrive at the site of an attack in Kabul, Afghanistan March 6, 2020.
Hard Numbers: Secret British plan resettles Afghans, More Palestinians die at aid sites, US AIDS relief lives on, robots take the field, & more
19,000: According to a BBC report, the personal details of 19,000 Afghans who had applied to move to the United Kingdom following the 2021 Taliban takeover were leaked in February 2022. The government learned of the data breach in August 2023 and created a secret resettlement scheme for those affected, as it was deemed they were at risk of harm by the Taliban. Under the program, 4,500 Afghans have relocated to the UK.
20: At least 20 Palestinians were killed in a stampede at an aid distribution site operated by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Fund on Wednesday. The UN says at least 875 people have lost their lives in the past six weeks alone while trying to access aid at these sites, with the majority reportedly gunned down by Israeli security forces. While Israel denies deliberately targeting civilians, it has said it is investigating the incidents.
$400 million: US Republican senators reached a budget deal on Tuesday that will preserve the $400-million President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) program, which helps to stem the spread of HIV in more than 50 countries and has reportedly saved 26 million lives. President Donald Trump had previously frozen funding for PEPFAR as part of his foreign-aid freeze.
2: A US citizen, Daniel Martindale, who spent more than two years spying on Ukrainian troops for Russia was awarded citizenship by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Martindale reportedly biked from Poland to Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in 2022, and surveyed key military positions and facilities from a Ukrainian village near the front line.
4: Our new robot umpire overlords have arrived! Last night’s Major League Baseball All-Star game – a meaningless but fun contest between the sport’s biggest stars – featured a trial system allowing players to appeal to a computerized system to challenge ball-and-strike calls made by human umps. Four out of the five challenges in the game were successful. The system could be introduced in meaningful games at the Major League level as soon as next season. Do we want this?
June 2025 inflation rate.
Graphic Truth: Inflation accelerates in June
Inflation ticked up to 2.7% in June as the effects of tariffs took hold, potentially complicating Donald Trump’s economic playbook. Consumer prices rose 0.3% since May, fueled by higher gas and apparel costs. Core inflation – which is seen as more reliable because it discounts volatile food and energy prices – also edged up to 2.9% year-over-year. With new tariffs looming Aug. 1, policymakers are bracing for more turbulence.
Malibu, California, USA: A pickup truck with a President Donald Trump decal and decorated in U.S. Flags drives on Pacific Coast Highway on July 4th in Malibu, California.
Opinion: US in the driver’s seat
Even still, with six months under their belt, US allies and adversaries continue to be confounded by the pace of dynamics coming their way. The influx of volatility is largely treated as an unknown variable to be built into strategic conversations and planning. An imperative to hold space for the “known unknowns” that will require navigation and policy response. The United Kingdom’s 2025 National Security Strategy released in June, for instance, labels this moment “an era of radical uncertainty” with no “stable equilibrium” in sight.
For the US administration, dysregulation is part of the end game. The intention is keeping global stakeholders on their toes, or as the White House calls it, “Keeping America in the Driver’s Seat.”
Security sphere uneasiness
Without a clear sense of what lies ahead, the working global response is to brace for impact, hope the ripples emerging from the US are not directed your way, and when they are, to do the best to ride the waves. In Europe, where the memory of US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks at this year’s Munich Security Conference still brings a shudder, there is a fleeting sense of relief at surviving June’s NATO Summit unscathed. A commitment to invest 5% of annual GDP on core defense requirements and defense- and security-related spending by 2035 feels like a fair price to keep the US engaged. After a decade or so wandering through the wilderness and being chided by successive US presidents about fair dues, European capitals find themselves buoyed by a reenergized NATO alliance.
With the hurdle of the NATO Summit cleared, Europe returns its focus to another summer offensive in Ukraine. Initial optimism that a change in the US administration might provide exit ramps for the war has subsided. Trump’s own promises to bring the war to an end quickly have been frustrated by the realities of an intractable conflict and the limits of relational diplomacy. Amidst an intensifying Russian missile and drone campaign of late, Europe is not sure which messaging from Washington is noise and which is signal. Reporting that the US Defense Department would halt the delivery of air defenses and artillery to Ukraine as part of a stockpile review had a chilling effect. Trump’s subsequent critical comments of Russian President Vladimir Putin at a US Cabinet meeting, alongside plans to sell weapons bound for Ukraine to NATO allies, reduced some of Europe’s anxiety. But each time Europe thinks it is doing a two-step with Trump only to find itself facing radical uncertainty, the known unknowns leave a mark.
A cresting trade tidal wave
Alongside security, the other major wave rippling around the globe this summer is a trade tidal wave. Just under the wire, the Trump administration extended implementation of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” from July 9th to August 1st. According to the White House, the further pause was based on “information and recommendations from senior officials, including information on the status of trade negotiations.” Thus far, a “Liberation Day” target of 90 deals in 90 days has resulted in trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam and a temporary trade truce with China (even as it has imposed new export restrictions on rare earths).
While the Trump team will be privately disappointed by the number of deals achieved to date, it is unlikely to be discouraged. As the world looks to interpret what comes next on trade, global stakeholders would do well to hold firm to a couple of framing principles. The first is that the US administration is ideological on trade, and has positioned these ideals at the center of its current-term ambitions.
The second grounding principle is that the president views himself as dealmaker-in-chief. He prefers to anchor negotiations by naming a price early in the process: in this case the Liberation Day reciprocal tariff rates. The anchoring position may not be where negotiations land, but it has the effect of shifting perspectives and forcing behavioral change. Europe’s 2025 NATO defensive spend commitments provide Trump with proof that this approach (plus patience) works. Likewise, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s rescission of a digital services tax (DST), disfavored by the US administration, is another data point for Trump’s negotiating strategy. Canada, for its part, is being repaid for its cooperation with a renewed threat of 35% tariffs on US imports.
Given all its levers of power, the US administration has taken to a tariff-letter-writing campaign. South Korea, Brazil, Philippines, Malaysia and a dozen or so others have been the recipients of letters notifying them of US willingness to continue its trading relationship but on new terms. What gets overlooked by too narrow a focus on the latest trade threats, and viral memes suggesting “Trump always chickens out,” is that against the wider perspective the US administration has already succeeded. Whether Brazil is hit with 50% tariffs over Trump’s displeasure with former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s legal investigations, whether Japan’s government falls over the precariousness that the threatened 25% tariffs have wrought, whether copper imports face 50% duties now and pharmaceuticals 200% in a year’s time or not; trade is at the top of everyone’s priorities.
The Trump administration has set a target of a new Golden Age for the American people. Through adopting an elusive approach to security expectations and defensive support, unsettling the global trade infrastructure, exporting risk, the president makes clear the US will be driving the agenda. Everyone else is sitting in the passenger seat.