Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Last Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president who tried to overturn the 2022 election, was convicted along with seven close allies for conspiring against democracy and plotting to assassinate his rivals, including President Lula. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and barred from office until 2060. At 70, he will likely spend his remaining years behind bars.
Despite conviction, Bolsonaro’s shadow looms over Brazilian politics
Last Thursday, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right former president who tried to overturn the 2022 election, was convicted along with seven close allies for conspiring against democracy and plotting to assassinate his rivals, including President Lula. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison and barred from office until 2060. At 70, he will likely spend his remaining years behind bars. (Though if he makes it to 105, he might still be viable in American politics.)
The decision was hardly surprising – the only thing unexpected was Justice Luiz Fux's dissent in the five-judge panel. The evidence against Bolsonaro was overwhelming, making a successful appeal unlikely. This marks the first time in Brazil’s history that a coup plotter has been brought to justice – a staggering win for the rule of law in a country that only returned to democracy in 1985 after two decades of military dictatorship.
But anyone expecting this moment to turn the page on the radical polarization of the Bolsonaro era and heal Brazil’s political wounds is in for a rude awakening. If anything, the ruling will deepen Brazil’s existing divides and further erode trust in institutions – courts, the media, political parties – heading into next year’s presidential election. The country remains as hopelessly divided as ever, with 51% of Brazilians approving the conviction while 43% see it as political persecution – reflecting partisan opposition to and support for Bolsonaro.
And also no surprise: US President Donald Trump is pouring gasoline on the fire. Bolsonaro’s friend and ideological ally has called the trial a “witch hunt” and weaponized American leverage to bully Brazil into dropping the charges. Even before the verdict came down, the White House had slapped 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, revoked travel visas for government officials and Supreme Court justices, and hit Alexandre de Moraes – the lead judge on the case – with Magnitsky sanctions typically reserved for the world’s worst human-rights abusers. Following the conviction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised America would "respond accordingly" to what he called an "unjust" ruling. More visa suspensions, expanded Magnitsky sanctions, and potential penalties against state-owned Banco do Brasil are on the way.
But Trump's attempts to help Bolsonaro will continue to do the exact opposite. The ex-president’s son Eduardo, a congressman close to Steve Bannon who moved to Texas and has been lobbying the White House for tougher measures against his own country, is now hugely unpopular at home and faces potential criminal charges. By contrast, President Lula has seized the moment to rally Brazilians around the flag, casting himself as the defender of national sovereignty against Trump and the Bolsonaro clan. His defiance has boosted his popularity and, together with easing inflation, makes him a narrow favorite heading into 2026.
Meanwhile, both countries will lose as US-Brazil relations sink further, especially if Lula’s retaliation leads to a tit-for-tat escalatory spiral. But Brasilia, like most other world capitals, is already hedging away from US leverage – deepening ties with Europe, China, the Middle East, Mexico, Canada, and potentially ASEAN to make sure Washington is less able to hurt it in the future (more on this here). The ultimate casualty may be the century-old partnership between the Western Hemisphere's two largest democracies.
What about a get-out-of-jail-free card? Bolsonaristas have been pushing for an amnesty bill that would pardon everyone involved in the January 8 coup attempt, including the former president. But the bill faces (very) long odds. Never mind that more than half of Brazilians oppose full clemency for Bolsonaro – so does most of the Senate leadership. Plus, the Supreme Court has already signaled that crimes against democracy aren’t pardonable, rendering any blanket amnesty law unconstitutional. Lawmakers might agree to reduce sentences for the 1,600 rank-and-file Jan. 8 rioters in order to break the current congressional deadlock. But, for now at least, Bolsonaro and his inner circle look set to do serious time.
And yet, even from behind bars, the ex-president will remain the undisputed leader of the opposition. He’s still competitive with Lula in hypothetical head-to-head polls, and his martyr status with his base guarantees he’ll be the kingmaker of the Brazilian right in 2026. Whoever he anoints to succeed him will almost certainly make it to the run-off. His goal will be to install someone who is likely to both beat Lula and secure his freedom.
But wait – didn’t I just say that Bolsonaro can’t be pardoned? Yes, but here’s the twist: Though the current Supreme Court says pardons for anti-democratic crimes are unconstitutional, the next president will have a chance to reshape the court’s composition, and Justice Fux's dissenting vote suggests that a different court might view the ex-president’s case more favorably. That means Bolsonaro’s path to freedom may depend less on today’s legal rulings than on the outcome of the next election.
So, who will get the nod to lead the right in 2026? Bolsonaro is torn between loyalty and electability. His first choice, a family member (whether one of his three sons or his wife, Michelle), guarantees the former but is a tougher sell to swing voters, especially given their associations with Trump's politically toxic penalties. The other option is São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who has real national appeal and polls better against Lula. Popular, pragmatic, and disciplined, Freitas has been making all the right noises for the convicted ex-President, criticizing the court, pushing Congress for amnesty, and vowing to pardon Bolsonaro on day one. Justice Fux’s dissent strengthens the case, however thin, for Freitas to argue that he’s better placed to negotiate a future pardon with a reconstituted Supreme Court and therefore that he’s Bolsonaro’s best shot at freedom.
Yet Bolsonaro also knows that if Freitas backtracks on his promise or his pardon hits a judicial wall, the former president could be left to rot in jail while his successor consolidates power. That’s why, even if Freitas looks like the logical choice today, Bolsonaro will likely keep his cards close to his chest right up to the filing deadline, when he could go either way.
Brazil’s democracy emerged from its coup attempt stronger than before. Institutions held firm, justice was served, and the rule of law carried the day. That’s more than the United States can say. But it’s only half the battle. Courts can send a former president to prison; they can’t send him into political oblivion or unite a country that’s split right down the middle. Bolsonaro may spend the rest of his life behind bars, but his influence – and the nation’s bitter divides – will continue to shape Brazilian politics for years to come.
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, speaks during a press conference, after Brazil's Supreme Court issued a house arrest order for his father, in Brasilia, Brazil, August 5, 2025.
Bolsonaro’s trial opens as Brazil braces for fallout
Brazil’s Supreme Court on Tuesday began the final phase of the historic trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is accused of plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Prosecutors say he conspired with allies to overturn the result, sought military backing, and even weighed assassinating rivals. If convicted, he could face more than 40 years in prison.
The trial is expected to run about 10 days, following months of arguments and witness testimony. Bolsonaro himself skipped the opening session, with lawyers citing a debilitating bout of hiccups – a lingering complication from a 2018 stabbing.
Why it matters: For a country scarred by coups and dictatorship, prosecuting a former leader is a democratic stress test. Analysts expect a conviction, which would inflame Bolsonaro’s base and deepen political tensions.
“Some analysts and political leaders hope that the trial will reduce polarization and pacify the political landscape. However, that is wishful thinking.” says Eurasia Group Managing Director and Brazil expert Chris Garman. “Keep in mind that roughly 40% of the electorate still believes that Bolsonaro won the 2022 election, and a large share of voters are still likely to see the trial as political persecution.”
What remains of Bolsonaro’s movement? Banned from seeking office until 2030, Bolsonaro has left his populist-right movement alive but adrift. Supporters are planning nationwide protests on Sept. 7, Independence Day, and Garman says that the “anti-establishment sentiment that got Bolsonaro elected in 2018 will persist.”
“Despite already being ineligible to run in 2026, several polls show Bolsonaro as the strongest candidate to challenge President Lula in 2026. That means whoever he endorses to run in his place will have a good shot of making it to a run-off against Lula.”
But no clear successor has emerged. “Pressure is high for Bolsonaro to crown São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas as his heir, instead of a family member.” says Garman. “In the coming months, all eyes will be on Bolsonaro’s decision on who to support in 2026. His martyr status will cement his “kingmaker” role in next year’s electoral cycle.”
The US angle: Bolsonaro has found an ally in US President Donald Trump, who views the trial as an anti-democratic witch hunt. His administration slapped a 50% tariff on Brazil and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice handling the case. Garman expects “the conviction will trigger more US sanctions on Brazilian individuals,” and that, “the US may also classify Brazil’s organized crime groups as terrorist organizations, increasing compliance risks for financial institutions.”
If Washington escalates, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – who has gained some political momentum thanks to Trump’s heavy-handed interventions – may pivot harder toward China, the Middle East, and the EU, where the long-stalled trade deal between the EU and South America’s largest trading bloc, Mercosur, is finally moving forward.People walk out of the West Wing of the White House with "The Epstein Files: Phase 1" binders, in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
What We're Watching: Trump under fire for Epstein scandal, Brazil raids Bolsonaro's home, North Korean beaches close to foreigners
Trump, under GOP pressure, orders release of Epstein materials
“Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret,” US President Donald Trump reportedly wrote in a 2003 note to child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump says the letter is “fake” and has threatened to sue media mogul Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Journal. But after days of claiming that the Epstein case was a “hoax” – despite promising to publicize the files during his 2024 campaign – Trump instructed the Justice Department to release grand jury testimony from the Epstein prosecution. This falls short of some MAGA demands for the release of all investigative materials, but Trump is under pressure: 62% of Republicans now believe he is hiding Epstein’s “client list.” Could the scandal undermine Trump’s vice-like hold on his own party?
Brazil’s government doubles down against Bolsonaro
Brazilian police on Friday raided the home of former President Jair Bolsonaro and ordered him to wear an ankle bracelet to prevent him from fleeing the country. The rightwing populist is currently on trial for plotting a coup after losing his 2022 re-election bid. The move comes just days after Trump threatened crippling tariffs on Brazil over the “witch hunt” of his pal Bolsonaro. But current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has found that bucking Trump is popular – the leftwing leader’s dismal ratings have leapt as much as 5 points since he shot back at the “gringo” president. Still, Lula must tread carefully: Brazil is deeply polarized and Bolsonaro is popular with as much as 40% of the population.
North Korea closes beaches to foreigners (shucks!)
Just weeks after North Korea unveiled the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone — the summer’s hottest new vacation spot — the government has abruptly closed it to foreigners. No explanation was given. So far, the only tourists allowed in have been Russian. If you were planning to spend your August beachside in North Korea, we hope you booked refundable tickets — and we can at least offer you this banger from Puppet Regime as a consolation prize.Jair Bolsonaro, Donald Trump, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Why Trump’s tariffs on Brazil will backfire
The president of the United States is overtly meddling in Brazil’s domestic politics. It's hard for Americans to even imagine that another country would dare threaten to tank the Dow unless the Supreme Court overturned a ruling or Congress repealed a law. Democrats and Republicans alike would howl if China tried to do that. Yet that's exactly what President Trump is doing to Brazil: flexing economic muscle to dictate the internal policies of a sovereign nation (and a democratic one, to boot). So much for his promise not to lecture other countries on how to govern their affairs (he should’ve clarified: as long as their leaders earn, or buy, his personal favor).
It’s a corrupt (ab)use of executive power. The Trump administration has articulated a number of shifting and often contradictory aims to justify its tariffs: shrinking bilateral trade deficits, raising revenue, reshoring supply chains, creating manufacturing jobs, squeezing China, wringing better deals. It’s certainly the case that some of these goals make less sense than others, tariffs aren’t always the right tool for the job, policy execution has been sloppy (remember the formula?), and Trump’s negotiation skills haven’t been up to snuff. But at least most of the tariffs have been guided by Trump’s sense of the national interest. They accordingly amount to legitimate statecraft. Not so with the Brazil tariff, which the president’s letter justifies purely on political grounds. There’s no national‑interest fig leaf – just an open bid to help a political opposition leader he likes.
It's also plainly illegal. Since “Liberation Day,” the White House has invoked a bunch of statutory authorities to unilaterally levy tariffs without Congressional legislation, most notably the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Usage of this law rests on the notion that the tariffs are a remedy for a “national economic emergency.” The US Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of IEEPA tariffs; it will probably do so in the fall, when I expect it to curb the president’s authority. But whatever the justices decide, we already know that the president doesn't have the legal authority to impose a tariff solely because he disagrees with the target’s domestic politics.
President Lula has no ability to give in to Trump’s demands. Even if he wanted to appease Trump, both Bolsonaro’s trial for plotting to assassinate Lula and overturn the 2022 election – a “witch hunt,” per Trump – and the new social media rules – seen as “censorship” in Washington – are beyond Lula’s constitutional jurisdiction. For Brasília they are non-negotiable matters of sovereignty. Nor does Lula have much trade leverage. Many US imports already face low duties; while Brazil could plausibly lower tariffs on some US goods like ethanol, deeper cuts require agreement by all four Mercosur members and their legislatures.
Even if he had the means to offer Trump the concessions he demands, Lula has no incentive to back down. On the contrary, the Brazilian president sees an electoral opportunity to lean into the tariff fight with the US at Bolsonaro's expense. Lula entered the 2026 campaign cycle as an unpopular incumbent presiding over a soft economy. Much like Trump’s “51st state” threats against Canada rallied Canadians around the flag and helped the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney stage a spectacular comeback, Trump’s threat to Brazil’s sovereignty and economy in direct support of Bolsonaro just handed Lula a flag-wrapped gift. It’s good politics for him to escalate the clash against Trump, cast himself as defender of Brazilian sovereignty, and blame his domestic nemesis for both the extremely unpopular foreign interference and any economic pain.
Don’t feel too bad for Bolsonaro. The former president has been trying to persuade Trump to more actively support him for months. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo – a lawmaker who’s close with Trump’s sons and a top contender to succeed his father as the right-wing challenger to Lula – has been in Washington lobbying the White House for targeted financial sanctions against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the lead judge in Bolsonaro’s trial (and, incidentally, a key champion of the social media regulation). Eduardo’s success in getting Trump to take up his cause is matched only by his failure to grasp the extent of Trump’s tariff obsession. Now he faces legal jeopardy at home for inviting foreign aggression, and his father’s grievance politics may finally come back to bite him. Whatever happens in 2026, the Bolsonaros have no one to blame but themselves.
The fight is set to get worse. Lula stepped up the escalatory rhetoric, refusing to accept Trump’s letter and threatening mirror tariffs. Diplomats will hunt for an off-ramp and try to buy time, but neither side is likely to blink before Aug. 1. The aggregate economic damage of 50% tariffs is manageable – Brazilian exports to the US account for less than 12% of Brazil’s total exports and about 2% of the country’s GDP, and some products (like oil) and sectors where Brazilian exporters have leverage are likely to be exempted. Trump’s letter also left the door open for individual companies to get waivers if they promise US investments. Still, the Brazilian industrial sector is highly dependent on the US export market (especially in products like steel, aerospace, cell phones, tools, and coffee), so the tariff won’t be entirely painless.
The cleanest de-escalation route runs through Bolsonaro himself: he’d need to directly ask Trump to ease or drop the tariffs, probably once the industrial lobby gets too loud and Lula’s poll numbers rise beyond comfort. That scenario is likelier than Lula caving or Trump unilaterally backing down. The White House has already ordered a Section 301 probe into various Brazilian policies that will give Trump a legally sturdier mechanism to impose sky-high duties on Brazil should courts clip his IEEPA wings.
Trump’s gambit will boomerang. The tariff will prop up his ally’s arch-enemy Lula, hurt US consumers (say goodbye to cheap cafezinho and OJ), and nudge Brazil closer to China and the EU – and away from Washington. As Trump keeps doing his darndest to deglobalize America, expect this pattern to keep repeating itself.
Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro during a protest where he called his supporters to gather, as police investigate him and his cabinet for allegedly plotting a coup after the 2022 election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, February 25, 2024.
Brazil’s former president shows he still has clout
He may be barred from electoral politics for the next six years because of convictions for abusing his power. He may be facing a flurry of serious legal charges over his alleged attempts to foment a coup last January after losing his 2022 re-election bid.
But in a deeply polarized country, Brazil’s firebrand former rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro is still immensely popular. Over the weekend he showed it, calling tens of thousands of protesters into the streets of São Paulo, the country’s business capital and most populous city. Among them were a number of lawmakers and even the state governor of São Paulo.
Telling his followers that he, and they, are victims of a campaign by the current leftwing government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to “erase the past,” Bolsonaro demanded amnesty for his supporters who ransacked federal government buildings last year in Brazil’s own echo of January 6th.
Prosecutors say Bolsonaro directly fomented that violence and sought to subvert the results of the 2022 election, which he narrowly lost to his old nemesis, Lula. While Bolsonaro cannot compete in the next presidential election in 2026 he’ll exert significant influence over it – whether from the sidelines or from jail.
Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro attends an Air Force ceremony in Brasilia, Brazil January 4, 2019.
Police seize Bolsonaro’s passport, arrest top aides over alleged coup
According to a 134-page court document, Bolsonaro allegedly coordinated with top officials to cook up legal rationale for new elections, enlist military support for a coup, carry out surveillance on judges, and encourage protesters who wound up storming the government complex in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.
Bolsonaro is alleged to have personally edited a draft decree to overturn the results of the election and arrest two supreme court justices and the leader of the Senate, and then to have summoned military commanders to pressure them into backing a coup.
What comes next? Investigators must decide whether to charge Bolsonaro, who is already ineligible to hold office until 2030, thanks to another case. He also faces additional criminal probes that could land him in jail, but he seemed deflated in reaction to the latest troubles, telling Folha de São Paolo, “Forget me, you have another person governing the country now.”
Premature newborns receive treatment after being transferred from Al-Shifa Hospital to Al-Emarati Hospital in Rafah.
Hard Numbers: Gaza newborns evacuated, Old Joe keeps a low pro, Shakira shakes tax rap, Bolsonaro’s whale of a harassment charge, a long overdue story from Minnesota
81: President Joe Biden kept the celebrations extra low-key as he turned 81 on Monday, and small wonder why. Recent polls show that a majority of Americans, including two-thirds of Democrats, are worried that he’s too old to be commander in chief. So far, that’s not stopping him from running for reelection next year.
8 million: Así es perfecto, indeed – Colombian pop megastar Shakira reached a settlement on Monday with Spanish prosecutors on day one of her tax evasion trial in Barcelona. She will pay $8 million to avoid further prosecution on charges that she failed to pay nearly $16 million worth of taxes to the Spanish government between 2012 and 2014. She must also pay the owed taxes and interest.
15: Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro is being investigated for reportedly “harassing” a humpback whale off the coast of Brazil. The right-wing populist – who’s banned from seeking reelection until 2030 following his attempts to sow doubt about the reelection bid he lost in 2022 – reportedly rode his Jet Ski within 15 meters of the surfacing cetacean. Bolsonaro, known to some as “Captain Chainsaw,” has a rocky relationship with the natural world: As president, he oversaw a massive uptick in Amazon deforestation, and who could forget the ornery emu that bit him on the hand while he was suffering from COVID-19?
103: This story is long overdue. A book checked out from a Minnesota public library 103 years ago has finally been returned after a local person found it in a family member’s belongings. If you’re thinking you’d probably need Shakira’s lawyers to get you out of the late fees on that, you’d be right – except that the library stopped charging late fees altogether in 2019.Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro goes on trial
A powerful and immensely popular former right-wing American president went on trial Thursday, and it’s not Donald Trump. Jair Bolsonaro, who led Brazil from 2018 until he narrowly lost to his left-wing nemesis “Lula” da Silva in 2022, faces charges that he unfairly sought to sway voters in that election with baseless claims about problems with the country’s voting system.
If Bolsonaro is found guilty of that charge next week, as many expect he will be, he’ll be banned from holding public office for eight years. Keep an eye on the streets if that happens, as Bolsonaro is the country’s most powerful opposition leader, and his supporters already view the country’s political institutions as hopelessly rigged against him.
But in the longer term, even if he is sidelined from contesting the presidency directly in 2026, he’ll remain a powerful kingmaker in a deeply polarized country.