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Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei gestures during the closing event of his electoral campaign ahead of the November 19 runoff election, in Cordoba, Argentina, November 16, 2023.
Milei’s win raises pressure for completion of EU-Latin America trade deal
Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election could rapidly accelerate negotiations for a trade treaty between the Mercosur trade bloc and the EU. Milei, a self-declared anarcho-capitalist, vowed to pull Argentina from Mercosur altogether if he won. His victory raises questions about the future of the bloc and talks surrounding the treaty.
A trade pact between the bloc — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay — and the EU has been in the works for years, and the two sides reached an agreement in principle in 2019. But talks have been stalled ever since thanks to disagreements over environmental commitments pushed by the EU.
The Milei effect: There now appears to be a mad dash to complete an agreement before Argentina inaugurates Milei, a far-right libertarian who’s drawn comparisons to former US President Donald Trump. Diplomats involved in the negotiations told the Financial Times they’re hoping to wrap things up by early December.
“The talks are moving ahead fast,” a Brazilian official taking part in the negotiations told Reuters.
As a climate-change denier, the Argentine president-elect could complicate negotiations on environmentally related matters. While it would be tough to finalize the deal before his inauguration, this might be the incentive all parties need to get to the finish line. We’ll be watching to see whether they can reach a deal before Milei takes office on Dec. 10.
FILE PHOTO: Guyanese Military members line up before Britain's Prince Harry laughs arrives for an official visit of Georgetown, Guyana December 2, 2016.
Venezuela and Guyana border dispute
As if Europe’s colonial-era mapmakers haven’t already bequeathed us enough wars. Now the long-running border dispute between Venezuela and its eastern neighbor Guyana is heating up again.
Guyana says Venezuela is sending troops to the frontier, while Caracas says Venezuelan voters will get to decide unilaterally whether to annex Guyanese territory.
At issue: The western two-thirds of Guyana, known as Essequibo, is a jungle terrain inhabited by 250,000 people. The dispute began with a 19th century map that gave the region to Guyana — at the time a British colonial possession — rather than to Venezuela, which maintained earlier Spanish claims to the area. Several international efforts to resolve the dispute since then have failed, and the issue is currently before the International Court of Justice.
But Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro rejects the court’s jurisdiction. He plans instead to put the question of annexation to Venezuelan voters in a plebiscite on Dec. 3.
Why now? Because there’s oil there, lots of it, following massive discoveries by ExxonMobil over the past decade. Maduro has his eye on those reserves, which would bring Guyana’s 800,000 citizens one of the swiftest windfalls of oil wealth in history.
But he may also be playing domestic politics. He recently tried to tar the Venezuelan opposition as national traitors for supposedly advancing a US-backed plan to scuttle the vote — an assertion the opposition vociferously denied.
Los Yanquis are in the area. Any forceful attempts to seize Guyanese territory could spark a crisis that quickly draws in the United States — since 2020, Washington has run joint naval patrols with Guyana.
A group of demonstrators burns an image of the Prime Minister of Israel, BENJAMÍN NETANYAHU, during a protest in front of the Israel Embassy in Santiago, Chile, for his military actions in Gaza.
South American countries recall Israel envoys over Gaza
Colombia and Chile recalled their ambassadors to Israel, and Bolivia severed relations with the country entirely in reaction to the scorched-earth tactics used by Israeli forces in Gaza. All three governments fall under a left-wing tradition in Latin America that is heavily pro-Palestinian.
Bolivia has historically terrible relations with Israel, and the move is no surprise. Left-wing icon and former President Evo Morales first severed ties in 2009 after Israel invaded Gaza in late December 2008, and he praised sitting President (and protegé-turned-rival) Luis Arce’s decision.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro was formerly a member of the M-19 guerillas, a radical left-wing group that terrorized urban areas before demobilizing in 1991. He’s pushed the boundaries of decency in his condemnations of Israel, going so far as to liken the country’s actions to those of Hitler and the Third Reich.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric, less radical than Petro or Arce, has nevertheless been unequivocal in his criticism of Israel’s operations in Gaza while still condemning Hamas’ terrorist atrocities and pledging to work toward a two-state solution.
Colombia and Chile also have large ethnic Arab minorities, which tends to lend weight to discourse over Middle Eastern issues, but isn’t the proximate cause of the current spat. Up to 3.2 million Colombians are of Arab descent (ever heard of Shakira?). They’re mostly Lebanese but include around 100,000 people of Palestinian heritage.
Meanwhile, Chile is believed to have the largest Palestinian diaspora outside the Middle East, with up to 500,000 members. The community has tended to prosper, and remains visible in public life: The Club Deportivo Palestino plays in the colors of the Palestinian flag and has twice won Chile’s top-tier soccer league. Legislators of Palestinian descent have a caucus in Congress, and Chile has been an observer in the Arab League since 2005.
Supporters of Argentina's presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich of Juntos por el Cambio party attend the closing event of her electoral campaign ahead of the October 22 general election, in Buenos Aires, Argentina October 19, 2023.
Argentina’s wild presidential election
Argentines will vote on Sunday in the country’s most unpredictable, topsy-turvy election in recent memory.
The leading candidate is shaggy-haired firebrand Javier Milei, a social-media-savvy political outsider who describes himself as an “anarcho-capitalist.” Milei wants to radically shrink the government, adopt the US dollar, and ban sex education.
His more colorful proposals include legalizing the sale of human organs and converting to Judaism. Milei came in first in a presidential primary in August and is currently polling above 35%.
Argentines are fed up. Milei’s popularity, especially with younger voters, arises from widespread frustration with the established parties – and it’s not hard to understand why. Argentina is suffering through its worst economic crisis in decades: Inflation has topped 120%, three out of five Argentines now live in poverty, and the peso is one of the worst-performing currencies in the world.
“Milei has been able to capture this disenchantment as he lashes out at all political parties,” says Luciano Sigalov, an Argentina expert at Eurasia Group.
Ironically, Milei’s pledge to dollarize the economy has contributed to an even greater selloff of the peso, adding to precisely the economic woes that have helped to make him the frontrunner.
“His dollarization proposals sound increasingly attractive to many who see the value of their pesos rapidly evaporating,” Sigalov points out.
But Milei isn’t the only show in town. There are two other formidable candidates:
Former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich. She has built her campaign around a promise to “restore order” and is polling at 29%. Although Argentina’s homicide rate is one of the lowest in Latin America, several high-profile instances of violence by drug gangs in the port city of Rosario — one of which included a threat to soccer legend Lionel Messi — have put public safety on the ballot.
Economy Minister Sergio Massa. The candidate of the currently governing Peronist coalition is polling at 26%. As a moderate and technocratic voice within typically left-wing Peronism, Massa is seen as a safe pair of hands who has credibility with the private sector and has strong support from his own coalition.
The election rules are complicated. To win outright, the top candidate must get at least 45% of the vote OR must surpass the runner-up by at least 10 points. So, for example, you can win with 42%, but only if the runner-up has 32% or less.
If no one is able to meet either of these conditions, then the top two finishers will head to a runoff on Nov. 19.
A demonstrator holds up a model depicting a Chilean constitution book that reads 'The new Kastitucion' in a play on the word 'Constitution' and the name of far right-wing politician Jose Antonio Kast, while protesting against ongoing Constitutional process lead by right-wing parties, in Santiago, Chile, October 3, 2023.
Chile’s constitutional efforts look doomed, again
Chile is in the tortuous process of drafting a new constitution to replace one drafted by its former military dictator. A new draft reads like a partisan wishlist – just like the left-leaning document voters rejected last year – but this time the far-right holds the pen.
On Wednesday, the body attempting to hammer out a new constitution for Chile submitted its official proposals, which will now be reviewed by an expert panel. The draft limits the rights of workers to strike, guarantees to swiftly expel undocumented migrants, curbs abortion rights, and includes provisions supporting private pensions, schools, and healthcare systems.
It’s far from the moderate document Chilean President Gabriel Boric hoped would emerge from this second bite at the chirimoya.
Some background: In 2019, famously stable Chile was rocked by a series of protests known as the estallido social (roughly, “social outburst”), of which a key demand was a new constitution to replace the one authored by the military junta of Gen. Augusto Pinochet in 1980.
In 2020, Boric — then just a lower-house member — played a key role in organizing the plebiscite in which an astounding 80% of Chileans voted in favor of writing a new constitution. It catapulted him to national fame, and in March 2022, the presidency.
But the first constitutional convention became bogged down in ideology, producing an ambitious and left-leaning draft that spooked middle-class Chileans. Voters roundly rejected it last September, but Boric didn’t feel he could just let the matter die. He attempted to continue the overhaul, but with a process supervised by Congressionally appointed experts to tamp down ideology.
It didn’t work. Boric’s left-leaning coalition took just 17 of the 51 seats in the constitutional assembly after May 2023 elections. Concerned by rising crime and a sluggish economy, voters elected the far-right Republicans to 22 seats, and they easily dominated the assembly in a supermajoritarian coalition alongside conventional right-wing parties.
But Chileans don’t appear happy with the prospect of a right-wing constitution either. Just 24% of voters plan to vote for the draft constitution so far.
The constitutional assembly will have a final chance to make changes after receiving expert comments, opening a slim chance for moderation before the plebiscite in December. Should Chileans reject this draft, they’ll be stuck with the Pinochet version, as Boric has made clear he’s now done with constitutional conventions.
The constitutional reform process has dominated political discourse for four years, while ordinary Chileans dealt with COVID-19, economic instability, and spiking crime and violence. Who will be satisfied if it all comes to naught?The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up?
El Salvador made headlines in recent days after President Nayib Bukele released photos of gang members being corralled into the country’s new mega-prison – a sprawling complex that will eventually hold 40,000 inmates. It’s the latest development in Bukele’s massive – and very popular – crackdown on gangs, in which Salvadoran authorities have locked up almost 2% of the adult population. (Never mind that US officials have recently accused Bukele of colluding with the very gangs he says he’s trying to stamp out!) El Salvador now has the highest prison rate per 100,000 people in the world – but how does that compare globally? Here we take a look at the countries with the highest official prison rates.
Ukraine anti-corruption moves won't hurt war effort
Will resignations and a political shake-up in Ukraine negatively affect its war efforts?
No, not at all. This is anti-corruption efforts, getting rid of a bunch of people that are seen as problematic in terms of skimming money within the government. Russia's been more corrupt than Ukraine historically, but actually, it's quite close. There's a lot of work to be done, and as people start thinking about Ukraine attracting major funds from the Europeans, the Americans, others, multilaterals to rebuild the country, they really need to make sure that the money is going where it needs to, and that means running the economy well. So this is the effort that's being tried here, but it doesn't really matter with the war effort at all.
How will Kevin McCarthy's planned visit to Taiwan further escalate tensions with China?
Well, the Chinese won't be happy about it, of course. I think that the level of Chinese retaliation will be lower than what we've seen with Pelosi, in part because Pelosi is seen as close to Biden and aligned with Biden policy. Even if Biden didn't want her to go with McCarthy, I think the Chinese understand that's not what we're talking about here, and also the Chinese are trying not to have escalation and creation of crises with the Americans. So specifically, I'm sure you'll see a bunch of military activities that'll occur, training exercises, missiles and the like in response to a McCarthy trip, but I don't think you would see the economic retaliation against Taiwanese entities on the ground. In fact, quietly, the Taiwanese are saying that they really don't need this McCarthy trip, and I also don't think you'll see a break in negotiations in diplomacy between the United States and China, as you saw after the Pelosi trip.
Pipe dream or real possibility: a common South American currency?
Pipe dream. This was the Argentine and Brazilian presidents getting together and saying that they're working on a currency, a common currency. They actually aren't, especially because the Argentine president is almost certain to lose upcoming elections and the opposition is going to come in, and the opposition opposes this. That makes it a dead letter, but there's so many other reasons why it's not plausible that you're going to get a common currency anytime soon. The chances of real movement in that direction in the foreseeable future are functionally zero.
- What We’re Watching: Armored combat vehicles for Ukraine, Biden’s border move, Bibi’s team vs. High Court, Assad’s new friends ›
- As inflation nears 100% in Argentina, the political class struggles to respond ›
- Hard Numbers: RIP wages in Argentina, Japan's missile arsenal, Mogadishu attack, Singapore’s big LGBT move ›
- What We're Watching: Sri Lanka's shrinking military, McCarthy's ... ›
- What We’re Watching: Israel’s mass anti-corruption protests, Sweden’s NATO own goal, Germany's mixed signals ›
- The Graphic Truth: Where corruption is rising, falling ›
The Graphic Truth: Whose World Cup is it anyway?
Yes, it’s the World Cup. But only a small part of the world actually gets to have it: Since 1930, every edition of the tournament has been won by a team from Europe or South America. Indeed, no country from any other part of the world has even been a runner-up. The last non-European or non-South American team to make it to the semifinals was South Korea in 2002, when it was host along with Japan — unless you count Turkey as part of Asia, which FIFA does not. We explore the World Cup’s winners and runners-up throughout history, showing how two regions dominate the Beautiful Game.