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Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune chairs the meeting of the Higher Committee for Supervision of Customs Declarations and Commercial Operations Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune chairs the meeting of the Higher Committee for Supervision of Customs Declarations and Commercial Operations in Algeria on Aug. 01, 2023 .
Algeria tries to play peacemaker in Niger
Algeria announced that the military junta in Niger has accepted its offer to mediate a return to civilian control. In late August, Algiers proposed a six-month-long transition plan, overseen by a civilian.
Algeria has advantages as a mediator. It has good relations with the United States but opposes French intervention in Africa, which the Nigerien junta has also opposed vociferously. Algiers also condemned the coup and supported ousted President Mohamed Bazoum but has been steadfastly opposed to any military intervention against its southern neighbor.
Countries to Niger’s south and west are under pressure to take action against this coup, the latest in a string of putsches in the region. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who also presides over ECOWAS, a political bloc of West African states, had activated a response force and threatened to attack Niger as a matter of last resort.
The long delay in action betrays ECOWAS’s hesitancy — intervention in Niger is likely to get messy and drag in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso that have pledged to support the junta. But if Algeria can make progress in talks, it gives Tinubu a good argument that the measure of last resort is not yet necessary.
It all might be a little too good to be true. Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, says the situation “sounds pretty similar to previous statements that [Niger] was ready to negotiate with ECOWAS.”
Diplomatic missions by both ECOWAS and US officials have amounted to scant progress in restoring civilian control in Niger. While Algiers is touting this as a path toward a peaceful resolution, Anku says it is not clear that Algeria will be successful.
Police try to protect residents fleeing the neighbourhood after gangs took over Carrefour Feuilles, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti August 15, 2023.
UN approves Kenyan mission to Haiti
The UN Security Council on Monday authorized a Kenyan-led mission to Haiti that aims to help the nation’s beleaguered police forces re-establish control of the Caribbean country.
Ever since President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in 2021, Haiti has been plunged into anarchy, with gangs controlling the vast majority of Port-au-Prince, the capital. More than 150,000 people have been displaced by gang violence, and thousands have been killed. The police, serving a caretaker government that lacks popular legitimacy, are underfunded and overwhelmed.
Earlier this year, the Haitian government and the UN called for international help. The US has supported the idea, but a checkered history of American interventions in Haiti has made the White House reluctant to get involved directly.
That’s where Kenya comes in. The resolution – which the US supported, and Russia and China abstained from – empowers Nairobi to dispatch 1,000 police officers to Haiti, alongside about a dozen other countries that have pledged to join the mission. It also offers training and logistical support to the countries that pledge to intervene. For more on why Kenya is stepping up to the plate, check out this explainer.
But taming Haiti’s gangs is a tall order, and not everyone is thrilled about an international mission like this. Recent UN interventions in Haiti have resulted in a deadly cholera outbreak and allegations that peacekeepers sexually exploited Haitian women and then abandoned hundreds of children who were born as a result.
Two Haitian-American groups are already lobbying against the Kenyan plan, telling the Biden administration that the intervention will only “exacerbate [Haiti’s] current political crisis to a catastrophic one.”
Former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he makes a statement to the media outside the court room at a Manhattan courthouse, during the trial of himself, his adult sons, the Trump Organization and others in a civil fraud case brought by state Attorney General Letitia James, in New York City, U.S., October 2, 2023.
Will Trump’s “sham” talk go unchecked?
While former President Donald Trump appeared fairly calm in a Lower Manhattan courtroom on Monday during the first day of his civil fraud trial, outside the chambers he was anything but.
He started off the morning telling reporters at the courthouse the trial is “a scam and a sham” and a "continuation of the single greatest witch hunt of all time” that amounts to “election interference.” He also called New York Attorney General Letitia James a “racist.”
By lunch, he was calling Judge Arthur Engoron a “disgrace,” “an operative” for the Democrats, and a “rogue judge” who should be disbarred. He also elaborated that Attorney General James was a “corrupt” and “terrible person.”
Given that this is a bench trial, through which Judge Engoron alone will decide just how heavy a hammer might fall on Trump’s finances, the former president’s PR strategy appears … questionable. Trump stands to lose the ability to conduct business in New York state and could face a $250 million penalty. That’s a big hit, even for a (putative) billionaire, and Trump has plenty more legal expenses to look forward to in 2024, on top of running a presidential campaign.
But are any of Trump’s verbal attacks going to cost him in the courtroom?
Not likely, according to Harvard Law School Professor Emeritus Laurence Tribe. In fact, they could help with his money problem.
“His unhinged statements attacking Justice Engoron, [Attorney General] Letitia James, and the trial itself will undoubtedly help him raise money and solidify his following among the hard core of the MAGA contingent but will have no effect on this civil trial,” he says. Even if Engoron and James find the attacks unpleasant, Tribe says, they will not increase Trump’s chances of incurring the heaviest possible penalties.
And despite Trump’s vitriolic language, Tribe says nothing constitutes actionable libel as his aspersions are “statements of opinion, not demonstrable false allegations of fact.”
The trial is set to run for three months but may end earlier. Trump said he may attend more days of the trial, but that could get old, fast – after all, he has a few other court dates to look forward to in the year ahead:
Jan. 15, 2024: The trial for author E. Jean Carroll’s defamation case against Trump opens. Trump is alleged to have defamed Carroll by destroying her reputation after she revealed he had sexually assaulted her in 1996, for which a jury found him responsible for sexual abuse in May. He’s already been found liable, and this trial will determine damages.
*March 4, 2024: The date Trump’s trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election opens. This is the Jan. 6 case brought by special prosecutor Jack Smith.
March 25, 2024: Trump goes on trial for allegedly directing his underling Michael Cohen to make hush money payments to Stephanie Clifford, a pornographic actress who performs under the name Stormy Daniels after Trump had an affair with her in 2006. Cohen pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations related to this case in 2018 and was sentenced to three years in prison.
May 20, 2024: The trial over Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents is due to start. This is the one where he allegedly crammed thousands of documents into what appeared to be a gold-plated bathroom, among other allegations of stealing and hiding classified government papers.
TBD: Trump’s trial in Georgia over allegations he attempted to pressure state officials into submitting false election results during the 2020 election. There’s been some scheduling issues as two of the codefendants split their cases from Trump’s in order to secure a more speedy trial. Remember that phone call where Trump tells state officials he needed them to find 11,780 votes? That’s this one.*Correction: An earlier version of this article stated prosecutors were seeking a Jan. 2 start date for Trump's trial for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2020 election. In fact, Judge Tanya Chutkan has since set a March 4 start date.
FILE PHOTO: Kosovo police officers patrol, in the aftermath of a shooting incident, in Banjska village, Kosovo September 27, 2023.
Is Serbia really about to do something extreme in Kosovo?
Things are getting hot again between Serbia and Kosovo. The US and NATO have both sounded the alarm after a recent gun battle between Kosovo police and Serb nationalists in Northern Kosovo left several people dead, prompting what the White House called an “unprecedented” buildup of Serbian troops along the Kosovo border.
The background, briefly: In 2008, after nearly 20 years of conflict, majority-Albanian Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, with US backing. But many ethnic Serbs who still live in Northern Kosovo reject the legitimacy of the Kosovar government, which Serbia itself has never recognized. The outlines of a Serbia-Kosovo agreement call for Kosovo to grant autonomy to ethnic Serb areas. Clashes have periodically erupted over local elections and even license plates.
Is a wider war coming? Kosovo says Serbia is poised to invade Kosovo in what would be an eerie echo of Azerbaijan’s shock move against Nagorno-Karabakh last week — i.e., a long-running ethnic dispute in which the stronger party makes a move while the EU and US are distracted by Ukraine. And yet, over the weekend, Belgrade drew down its forces along the border after getting an earful from both Brussels and Washington.
That’s because Serbia has another interest at stake too. It still wants to see progress on its decade-old EU accession bid when the Union meets to discuss enlargement this winter. Although Serbian views on membership are split, and Belgrade’s cozy Russia ties are a further complication, President Alexander Vučić knows that invading Kosovo would be suicidal for any EU hopes.
But there’s a catch there too: Neither Serbia nor Kosovo — which has also applied to join — has any hope of getting into the EU until they resolve their own conflict first, a prospect that does not look promising at the moment.
Ukrainian and EU flags fly in central Kyiv as the city hosts an EU-Ukraine foreign ministers meeting, amid Russia's ongoing attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine October 2, 2023.
The fight over support for Ukraine
Aware of that, EU foreign ministers visited Ukraine’s capital on Monday – their first-ever meeting outside EU territory – to signal their continuing commitment to the country’s future. Later this year, the EU is expected to formalize the beginning of a long process to welcome Ukraine, and perhaps several other states, into the union.
In Washington, the news for Ukraine was not as rosy. As part of a deal to stop Republican hardliners in the House of Representatives from shutting down the US government, Democrats met their demand to drop the latest funding package for Ukraine from current spending plans.
This isn’t the end of US financial support for Kyiv, despite intensifying opposition from some Republicans, as well as from likely GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump. President Biden will reportedly call allies to reassure them that US support will continue to flow. There will be more dollars and more US weapons headed for Ukraine in the coming months. But this deal to avoid a shutdown only funds the US government until Nov. 17, setting up more “shutdown showdowns” to come – and now a precedent has been set that Ukraine aid will be a crucial bargaining chip in future fights.U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA), who announced she will not be seeking re-election, leaves the Senate floor after a vote on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., February 14, 2023.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein dies at 90
California Sen. Dianne Feinstein passed away at age 90 late on Thursday, family members confirmed Friday. She was the oldest sitting US senator and a titan of politics in the state boasting the country’s largest economy.
Feinstein came to national prominence following the tragic double assassination of San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and LGBTQ+ rights icon Harvey Milk, then a city supervisor. Named acting mayor, she embarked on an “emotional reconstruction” of the city, in her words. Her resilience paved the way for her to serve two terms as San Francisco’s mayor before winning a Senate seat in the 1992 California special election.
She built a legacy in the Senate of championing progressive causes, introducing the bill that effectively banned assault rifles between 1994 and 2004, and campaigning for abortion rights and higher fuel efficiency standards. She played a pivotal role in the 2018 confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh as the conduit for Professor Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her decades earlier.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has said he will appoint a Black woman to replace Feinstein, though one of the most promising candidates, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), is probably out of the running. Since Feinstein announced she would retire at the end of her current term before she passed, Lee has been campaigning against other California Democrats for the seat. The concern is that appointing Lee to finish the term would give her something of an incumbency advantage in the 2024 Democratic primary that her opponents would decry as unfair.
There’s one more potential complication: Feinstein was the tie-breaking vote on the Senate Judiciary Committee, and she played a crucial role in confirming federal judges appointed by President Joe Biden. Her replacement won’t automatically take her place. Democrats can try to appoint a new Senator to the committee, but a GOP senator could — and probably will — filibuster the motion, thereby blocking Biden’s appointments indefinitely.
A man walks in the Central Business District on a rainy day, in Beijing, China, July 12, 2023.
China picks a debt whiz to run its finances
Beijing announced that Lan Fo’an, currently provincial party secretary in Shanxi, will succeed Liu Kun at the Ministry of Finance, signaling a commitment to tackling the country’s mounting debt problem. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 280%, most of it held by local governments who borrowed heavily to fund development projects.
Lan has a reputation for being a whiz at reducing debt accumulation from his time as governor in Shanxi. He was praised by state media at the time for helping the province transform from a coal-mining to a manufacturing- and services-based economy even though Shanxi’s overall economic growth lagged behind the national average.
That’s just the kind of CV they’re looking for in Beijing these days. Lan is likely to continue his predecessor’s efforts to audit local government debt and push them to manage their own problems — but bailouts may be tempting if defaults spike.
One more thing: Don’t confuse Finance Minister Liu’s retirement with the recent ouster of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and some military figures. Liu is above the normal retirement age for high party officials and was kept on after the National People's Congress session in March to signal policy stability. Lan will probably succeed him at the next National People’s Congress Standing Committee session before the end of the year.Secretary of State Antony Blinken plays guitar at the State Department, September 27, 2023.
What we’re listening to: US tries out Hoochie Coochie diplomacy
To be honest, if you told us that the US secretary of state, a 61-year-old white guy, was gonna grab a Stratocaster and belt out some Delta Blues in public, we’d have braced for a much more awkward outcome than this.
But Antony Blinken’s rendition of the Muddy Waters classic “Hoochie Coochie Man” was actually … pretty good! Like, not “Bill Clinton in sunglasses blowing sax on late night TV” good, but probably better than Vladimir Putin nervously crooning “Blyubyerreh Khill” to a room of captive celebrities.
America’s top diplomat sang the blues earlier this week at the launch of a new US initiative that enlists music and musicians to “convey American leadership globally and create connections with people worldwide.”
I couldn’t pass up tonight’s opportunity to combine music and diplomacy. Was a pleasure to launch @StateDept’s new Global Music Diplomacy Initiative. pic.twitter.com/6MUfTXO9xK
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) September 28, 2023
The Global Music Diplomacy Initiative envisions worldwide exchanges of US and non-US musicians and musical scholars. Music as a way to learn English is one big (and smart) focus. An early round of tour programs includes a Herbie Hancock visit to the Middle East, a Philadelphia Orchestra residency in China, and bringing hip-hop artists into conflict resolution efforts in Nigeria.
The whole thing is reminiscent in some ways of Cold War programs that sent US musicians — sometimes handled by the CIA — to the far corners of the world to spread the gospel of American free market capitalism and artistic liberty.
The world has changed a lot since then — no doubt the US still boasts some of the best and most innovative musicians in the world (we just celebrated the 50th birthday of hip-hop, arguably the most transformative musical genre in history, which was born in the Bronx).
But does the US — divided at home and less trusted abroad — still have the political credibility to really make the world, as Muddy Waters sang, “wanna know what this all about”? We’ll turn up the volume and see where this goes.